scholarly journals Evolution and characteristics of frequency, duration and magnitude of drought events in the central Pyrenees since 1940

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Sigro
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Eastern Pyrenees ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Number Magnitude ◽  
Central Pyrenees

<p>The central sectors of the Pyrenees have experienced a significant increase in the average and extreme daily temperature during the last 80 years, as well as a downward trend in precipitation totals (Perez-Zanón et al., 2016). This article addresses the evolution of the number, magnitude and duration of drought events in the Spanish Central Pyrenees from 8 decades of temperature and precipitation records integrated into the high-quality Central Pyrenees data set (Perez-Zanón et al., 2016 ), using the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) index (Begueria et al., 2014; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). Series of monthly mean temperature, monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature and accumulated monthly precipitation corresponding to 15 quality controlled and homogeneity adjusted meteorological observatories have been used. This index has been calculated for 3, 6, 12 and 24 months, in order to analyse its behaviour ​​for different types of drought.</p><p>The analysis of SPEI index series indicates a tendency to increase in the frequency of drought events and in their maximum magnitude in the 4 time scales of the SPEI index analysed, especially since the 1980s. This increase in the number of events is also accompanied by an increase in their duration, especially in the case of SPEI3 and SPEI6, although not in the case of SPEI12 and SPEI24</p><p>The spatial patterns calculated from the series of the indices also show a clear east-west pattern differentiated between the index signal for the eastern Pyrenees and the western Pyrenees.</p><p>REFERENCES</p><p>Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Fergus Reig, Borja Latorre. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) revisited (2014): parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, kernel weighting, tools, datasets and drought monitoring. International Journal of Climatology, 34: 3001-3023</p><p>Pérez-Zanón, N., Sigró, J. and Ashcroft, L. (2016), Temperature and precipitation regional climate series over the central Pyrenees during 1910–2013. Int. J. Climatol. DOI:10.1002/joc.4823</p><p>Vicente-Serrano S.M., Santiago Beguería, Juan I. López-Moreno, (2010) A Multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index - SPEI. Journal of Climate 23: 1696-1718.</p>

scholarly journals Joint Occurrence of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events over Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 2148-2162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bárbara Tencer ◽  
Andrew Weaver ◽  
Francis Zwiers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Joint Occurrence

AbstractThe occurrence of individual extremes such as temperature and precipitation extremes can have a great impact on the environment. Agriculture, energy demands, and human health, among other activities, can be affected by extremely high or low temperatures and by extremely dry or wet conditions. The simultaneous or proximate occurrence of both types of extremes could lead to even more profound consequences, however. For example, a dry period can have more negative consequences on agriculture if it is concomitant with or followed by a period of extremely high temperatures. This study analyzes the joint occurrence of very wet conditions and high/low temperature events at stations in Canada. More than one-half of the stations showed a significant positive relationship at the daily time scale between warm nights (daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile) or warm days (daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile) and heavy-precipitation events (daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile), with the greater frequencies found for the east and southwest coasts during autumn and winter. Cold days (daily maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) occur together with intense precipitation more frequently during spring and summer. Simulations by regional climate models show good agreement with observations in the seasonal and spatial variability of the joint distribution, especially when an ensemble of simulations was used.

scholarly journals Validation of the HIRHAM-Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Polanski ◽  
Annette Rinke ◽  
Klaus Dethloff
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Topographic Features ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40) data for the period from 1958 to 2001. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns. The focus in this paper is on the validation of the long-term summer monsoon climatology and its variability concerning circulation, temperature, and precipitation. Additionally, the monsoonal behavior in simulations for wet and dry years has been investigated and compared against several observational data sets. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic reproduction of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded precipitation data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40.

scholarly journals Climate Extremes over the Arabian Peninsula Using RegCM4 for Present Conditions Forced by Several CMIP5 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almazroui
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This paper investigates the temperature and precipitation extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using data from the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and ERA–Interim reanalysis data. Indices of extremes are calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations located across Saudi Arabia in line with the suggested procedure from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the present climate (1986–2005) using 1981–2000 as the reference period. The results show that RegCM4 accurately captures the main features of temperature extremes found in surface observations. The results also show that RegCM4 with the CLM land–surface scheme performs better in the simulation of precipitation and minimum temperature, while the BATS scheme is better than CLM in simulating maximum temperature. Among the three CMIP5 models, the two best performing models are found to accurately reproduce the observations in calculating the extreme indices, while the other is not so successful. The reason for the good performance by these two models is that they successfully capture the circulation patterns and the humidity fields, which in turn influence the temperature and precipitation patterns that determine the extremes over the study region.

Temperature and precipitation projections for Poland based on downscaled EuroCORDEX ensemble

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Struzewska ◽  
Maciej Jefimow ◽  
Paulina Jagiełło ◽  
Maria Kłeczek ◽  
Anahita Sattari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>Regional climate projections are necessary to assess possible changes in the exposure and risk to allow planning the adaptation strategies.</p><p>Projections of temperature and precipitation trends were developed using a consistent methodology and homogeneous datasets to address the needs of up-to-date climate change scenarios for Poland.</p><p>The Euro-Cordex results with the resolution of 0.11deg (about 12.5km) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were downscaled based on various historical gridded datasets (EOBS, ERA5, UERRA and data from IMWM).</p><p>Ensemble analysis was undertaken to assess the projection uncertainty and ensemble mean were calculated for base parameters (daily average, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation sum) as well as for the number of climate indices.</p><p>We will present spatial and temporal variability of selected climate indices over Poland for subsequent decades. Increase of the annual average temperature is due to the rise in the number of hot days and the reduction of the number of frost days. All temperature indices are characterized by statistically significant trends, strongest for RCP8.5. The most pronounced changes in the frequency and amount of precipitation occur in the north-east of Poland. The total number of days with precipitation increases slightly. The increase in the annual rainfall is due to the increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation.</p><p>Results are presented via an interactive web portal. Further analysis includes the development of projection for solar radiation, wind speed, humidity and snow cover.</p>

Spatiotemporal Mapping of Temperature and Precipitation for the Development of a Multidecadal Climatic Dataset for Wisconsin

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 742-757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn P. Serbin ◽  
Christopher J. Kucharik
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The State ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Moderate Degree ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Gridded Dataset ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy

Abstract Results from the generation of a multidecadal gridded climatic dataset for 57 yr (1950–2006) of daily and monthly precipitation (PTotal), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) are presented for the important agricultural and forest products state of Wisconsin. A total of 176 climate stations were used in the final gridded dataset that was constructed at 8-km (5.0′) latitude–longitude resolution using an automated inverse distance weighting interpolation. Accuracy statistics for the interpolated data were based on a rigorous validation step using 104 first- and second-order climate observation stations withheld in the production of the gridded dataset. The mean absolute errors (MAE) for daily minimum and maximum temperatures averaged 1.51° and 1.31°C, respectively. Daily precipitation errors were also reasonable, ranging from −0.04 to 0.08 mm, on average, across all climate divisions in the state with an overall statewide MAE of 1.37 mm day−1. Correlation analysis suggested a high degree of explained variation for daily temperature (R2 ≥ 0.97) and a moderate degree for daily precipitation (R2 = 0.66), whereby the realism improved considerably for monthly precipitation accumulation totals (R2 = 0.87). Precipitation had the best interpolation accuracy during the winter months, related to large-scale, synoptic weather systems, and accuracy was at a minimum in the wetter summer months when more precipitation originates from local-to-regional-scale convective forcing. Overall the grids showed coherent spatial patterns in temperature and precipitation that were expected for this region, such as the latitudinal gradient in temperature and longitudinal gradient in precipitation across the state. The grids will prove useful for a variety of regional-scale research and ecosystem modeling studies.

scholarly journals Identification of Droughts and Heat Waves in Germany with Regional Climate Networks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerd Schädler ◽  
Marcus Breil
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Clustering Coefficient ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climate Networks

Abstract. Regional Climate Networks (RCNs) are used to identify heat waves and droughts in Germany and two subregions for the summer half years resp. summer seasons of the period 1951 to 2019. RCNs provide information for whole areas (in contrast to the point-wise information from standard indices), the underlying nodes can be distributed arbitrarily, they are easy to 5 construct and provide details otherwise difficult to avail of like extent, intensity and collective behaviour of extreme events. The RCNs were constructed on the regular 0.25 degree grid of the E-Obs data set. The season-wise correlation of time series of daily maximum temperature Tmax and precipitation were used to construct the adjacency matrix of the networks. Metrics to identify extremes were the edge density, the 90th percentile of the correlations and the average clustering coefficient, which turned out to be highly correlated; they increased considerably during extreme events. The standard indices for comparison 10 were the effective drought and heat index (EDI and EHI) respectively, based on the same time series, and complemented by other published data. Our results show that the RCNs are able to identify severe extremes in all cases and moderate extremes in most cases. An interesting finding is that during average years, the distribution of the node degrees is close to the Poisson distribution, characteristic of random networks, while for extreme years the distribution is more uniform and heavy tailed.

scholarly journals SA-OBS: A Daily Gridded Surface Temperature and Precipitation Dataset for Southeast Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5151-5165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Else J. M. van den Besselaar ◽  
Gerard van der Schrier ◽  
Richard C. Cornes ◽  
Aris Suwondo Iqbal ◽  
Albert M. G. Klein Tank
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Assessment ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Interpolation Technique ◽  
Precipitation Events ◽  
Best Estimates

This study introduces a new daily high-resolution land-only observational gridded dataset, called SA-OBS, for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature covering Southeast Asia. This dataset improves upon existing observational products in terms of the number of contributing stations, in the use of an interpolation technique appropriate for daily climate observations, and in making estimates of the uncertainty of the gridded data. The dataset is delivered on a 0.25° × 0.25° and a 0.5° × 0.5° regular latitude–longitude grid for the period 1981–2014. The dataset aims to provide best estimates of grid square averages rather than point values to enable direct comparisons with regional climate models. Next to the best estimates, daily uncertainties are quantified. The underlying daily station time series are collected in cooperation between meteorological services in the region: the Southeast Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset (SACA&D). Comparisons are made with station observations and other gridded station or satellite-based datasets (APHRODITE, CMORPH, TRMM). The comparisons show that vast differences exist in the average daily precipitation, the number of rainy days, and the average precipitation on a wet day between these datasets. SA-OBS closely resembles the station observations in terms of dry/wet frequency, the timing of precipitation events, and the reproduction of extreme precipitation. New versions of SA-OBS will be released when the station network in SACA&D has grown further.

Temperature and precipitation verification over Pannonian Basin in EURO-CORDEX simulations during summer season

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irida Lazic ◽  
Vladimir Djurdjevic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Pannonian Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Precipitation Bias

<p>In previous studies, it was noticed that many Regional Climate Models (RCMs) tend to overestimate mean near surface air temperature and underestimate precipitation in the Pannonian Basin during summer, leading to so-called summer drying problem [1]. Our intention for this study was to analyze temperature and precipitation biases in the state of the art EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble results in the summer season. Models’ results from the historical runs, and over time period 1971-2000, for temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure were verified against gridded E-OBS data set. In total there were 30 selected integrations, with different combinations of RCMs and Global Climate Models (GCMs). In order to assess the impact of the different lateral boundary conditions on the results from RCMs simulations, emphasizing the errors of the corresponding driving models used in 30 RCMs simulations, results from driving GCMs are also verified.</p><p>Verification results for selected time period was expressed in term of four verification scores: bias, root mean square error (RMSE), spatial correlation coefficient and standard deviations. Verification scores were evaluated within a sub-domain in the center of the region bounded by longitudes, 14E and 27E, and latitudes, 43.5N and 50N, in which topography elevation is below 200 m. This sub-domain was selected to eliminate the influence of results over the surrounding mountains on spatially averaged scores [2], because previous studies indicated a pronounced summer drying problem in low lying areas. Our analysis showed that 17 RCMs tend to overestimate the temperature, 8 RCMs tend to underestimate the temperature and 5 RCMs tend to estimate temperature around E-OBS gridded data set. On the other hand, most of the RCMs that overestimate the temperature, underestimate the precipitation. According to the results, temperature bias was in the range from -1.9°C to +4.4°C , while precipitation bias was in the range from 42% to -70%. For some models the positive temperature and negative precipitation bias were even more pronounced, leading to the conclusion, that the problem is still present in the majority of analyzed simulations. Analysis of the sea level pressure was conducted as an indirect indicator of errors in advection processes in RCMs, which was indicated, beside others, as a potential precursor of temperature and precipitation biases [3]. To better understand the sources and reasons for summer drying problem further research is needed.</p><p>[1] Kotlarski S. et al., (2014): Regional climate modelling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development 7:1297–1333, doi: 10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014</p><p>[2] Lazic I., Djurdjevic V., (2019): EURO-CORDEX regional climate models’ performances in representing temperature and precipitation over Pannonian Basin, Book of abstracts, 5th PannEx Workshop, 3-5 June 2019, Novi Sad, Serbia.</p><p>[3] Szépszó G., (2006): Adaptation of the REMO model at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (in Hungarian). Proceedings of the 31st Scientific Days for Meteorology, 125–135.</p><p><em>Keywords</em>: summer drying problem, verification, EURO-CORDEX, Pannonian Basin</p><p>Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Science and Education, under grant no. 176013.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Local Climate Change: Historical Trends and RCM Multi-Model Projections Over the Salento Area (Italy)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco D’Oria ◽  
Maria Tanda ◽  
Valeria Todaro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Local Climate

This study provides an up-to-date analysis of climate change over the Salento area (southeast Italy) using both historical data and multi-model projections of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The accumulated anomalies of monthly precipitation and temperature records were analyzed and the trends in the climate variables were identified and quantified for two historical periods. The precipitation trends are in almost all cases not significant while the temperature shows statistically significant increasing tendencies especially in summer. A clear changing point around the 80s and at the end of the 90s was identified by the accumulated anomalies of the minimum and maximum temperature, respectively. The gradual increase of the temperature over the area is confirmed by the climate model projections, at short—(2016–2035), medium—(2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100), provided by an ensemble of 13 RCMs, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the models agree that the mean temperature will rise over this century, with the highest increases in the warm season. The total annual rainfall is not expected to significantly vary in the future although systematic changes are present in some months: a decrease in April and July and an increase in November. The daily temperature projections of the RCMs were used to identify potential variations in the characteristics of the heat waves; an increase of their frequency is expected over this century.

scholarly journals A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Gómez-Navarro ◽  
J. P. Montávez ◽  
S. Jerez ◽  
P. Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
R. Lorente-Plazas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. A high-resolution (30 km) regional paleoclimate simulation of the last millennium over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. The simulation was performed with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5 driven by the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by the same reconstructions of several external forcing factors. The high spatial resolution of the regional model allows climatologists to realistically simulate many aspects of the climate in the IP, as compared to an observational data set in the reference period 1961–1990. Although the spatial-averaged values developed by the regional model are tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is capable to develop a different realisation of the past climate at regional scales, especially in the high-frequency domain and for precipitation. This has to be considered when comparing the results of climate simulations versus proxy reconstructions. A preliminary comparison of the simulation results with reconstructions of temperature and precipitation over the IP shows good agreement in the warming trends in the last century of the simulation, although there are large disagreements in key periods such as the precipitation anomalies in the Maunder Minimum.

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