scholarly journals Ocean Phosphorus Inventory and Ocean Deoxygenation: Large Uncertainties in Future Projections on Millennial Timescales

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tronje P. Kemena ◽  
Andreas Oschlies ◽  
Wolfgang Koeve ◽  
Klaus Wallmann ◽  
Angela Landolfi ◽  
...  

Abstract. Previous studies have suggested that weathering and benthic phosphorus (P) fluxes, triggered by climate warming, can increase the oceanic P inventory on millennial time scales, promoting ocean productivity and deoxygenation. In this study, we assessed the major uncertainties in projected P inventories and their imprint on ocean deoxygenation using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity for a business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emission scenario until year 2300 and subsequent linear decline to zero emissions until year 3000. Model results suggest a large spread in the simulated oceanic P inventory due to uncertainties in (1) assumptions for weathering parameters, (2) the representation of bathymetry on slopes and shelves in the model bathymetry, (3) the parametrization of benthic P fluxes and (4) the representation of sediment P inventories. Our best estimate for changes in the global ocean P inventory by the year 5000 caused by global warming amounts to +30 % compared to pre-industrial levels. Weathering, benthic and anthropogenic fluxes of P contributed +25 %, +3 % and +2 % respectively. The total range of oceanic P inventory changes across all model simulations varied between +2 % and +60 %. Suboxic volumes were up to 5 times larger than in a model simulation with a constant oceanic P inventory. Considerably large amounts of the additional P left the ocean surface unused by phytoplankton via physical transport processes as preformed P. Nitrogen fixation was not able to adjust the oceanic nitrogen inventory to the increasing P levels or to compensate for the nitrogen loss due to increased denitrification. This is in contrast to palaeo reconstructions of large-scale deoxygenation events. We suggest that uncertainties in P weathering, nitrogen fixation and benthic P feedbacks need to be reduced to achieve more reliable projections of oceanic deoxygenation on millennial timescales.

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 539-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tronje P. Kemena ◽  
Angela Landolfi ◽  
Andreas Oschlies ◽  
Klaus Wallmann ◽  
Andrew W. Dale

Abstract. Previous studies have suggested that enhanced weathering and benthic phosphorus (P) fluxes, triggered by climate warming, can increase the oceanic P inventory on millennial timescales, promoting ocean productivity and deoxygenation. In this study, we assessed the major uncertainties in projected P inventories and their imprint on ocean deoxygenation using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity for the same business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emission scenario until the year 2300 and subsequent linear decline to zero emissions until the year 3000. Our set of model experiments under the same climate scenarios but differing in their biogeochemical P parameterizations suggest a large spread in the simulated oceanic P inventory due to uncertainties in (1) assumptions for weathering parameters, (2) the representation of bathymetry on slopes and shelves in the model bathymetry, (3) the parametrization of benthic P fluxes and (4) the representation of sediment P inventories. Considering the weathering parameters closest to the present day, a limited P reservoir and prescribed anthropogenic P fluxes, we find a +30 % increase in the total global ocean P inventory by the year 5000 relative to pre-industrial levels, caused by global warming. Weathering, benthic and anthropogenic fluxes of P contributed +25 %, +3 % and +2 %, respectively. The total range of oceanic P inventory changes across all model simulations varied between +2 % and +60 %. Suboxic volumes were up to 5 times larger than in a model simulation with a constant oceanic P inventory. Considerably large amounts of the additional P left the ocean surface unused by phytoplankton via physical transport processes as preformed P. In the model, nitrogen fixation was not able to adjust the oceanic nitrogen inventory to the increasing P levels or to compensate for the nitrogen loss due to increased denitrification. This is because low temperatures and iron limitation inhibited the uptake of the extra P and growth by nitrogen fixers in polar and lower-latitude regions. We suggest that uncertainties in P weathering, nitrogen fixation and benthic P feedbacks need to be reduced to achieve more reliable projections of oceanic deoxygenation on millennial timescales.


2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3393-3451 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Iudicone ◽  
I. Stendardo ◽  
O. Aumont ◽  
K. B. Rodgers ◽  
G. Madec ◽  
...  

Abstract. A watermass-based framework is presented for a quantitative understanding of the processes controlling the cycling of carbon in the Southern Ocean. The approach is developed using a model simulation of the global carbon transports within the ocean and with the atmosphere. It is shown how the watermass framework sheds light on the interplay between biology, air-sea gas exchange, and internal ocean transport including diapycnal processes, and the way in which this interplay controls the large-scale ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange. The simulated pre-industrial regional patterns of DIC distribution and the global distribution of the pre-industrial air-sea CO2 fluxes compare well with other model results and with results from an ocean inversion method. The main differences are found in the Southern Ocean where the model presents a stronger CO2 outgassing south of the polar front, a result of the upwelling of DIC-rich deep waters into the surface layer. North of the subantarctic front the typical temperature-driven solubility effect produces a net ingassing of CO2. The biological controls on surface CO2 fluxes through primary production is generally smaller than the temperature effect on solubility. Novel to this study is also a Lagrangian trajectory analysis of the meridional transport of DIC. The analysis allows to evaluate the contribution of separate branches of the global thermohaline circulation (identified by watermasses) to the vertical distribution of DIC throughout the Southern Ocean and towards the global ocean. The most important new result is that the overturning associated with Subantarctic Mode Waters sustains a northward net transport of DIC (15.7×107 mol/s across 30° S). This new finding, which has also relevant implications on the prediction of anthropogenic carbon redistribution, results from the specific mechanism of SAMW formation and its source waters whose consequences on tracer transports are analyzed for the first time in this study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudine Hauri ◽  
Rémi Pagès ◽  
Andrew M. P. McDonnell ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Seth L. Danielson ◽  
...  

AbstractUptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the surface ocean is leading to global ocean acidification, but regional variations in ocean circulation and mixing can dampen or accelerate apparent acidification rates. Here we use a regional ocean model simulation for the years 1980 to 2013 and observational data to investigate how ocean fluctuations impact acidification rates in surface waters of the Gulf of Alaska. We find that large-scale atmospheric forcing influenced local winds and upwelling strength, which in turn affected ocean acidification rate. Specifically, variability in local wind stress curl depressed sea surface height in the subpolar gyre over decade-long intervals, which increased upwelling of nitrate- and dissolved inorganic carbon-rich waters and enhanced apparent ocean acidification rates. We define this sea surface height variability as the Northern Gulf of Alaska Oscillation and suggest that it can cause extreme acidification events that are detrimental to ecosystem health and fisheries.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 8037-8053 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. C. Hsu ◽  
R. Gautam ◽  
A. M. Sayer ◽  
C. Bettenhausen ◽  
C. Li ◽  
...  

Abstract. Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-yr mission. Our correlation analysis between climatic indices (such as ENSO) and AOD suggests strong relationships for Saharan dust export as well as biomass-burning activity in the tropics, associated with large-scale feedbacks. The results also indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On regional scales, distinct tendencies are found for different regions associated with natural and anthropogenic aerosol emission and transport. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1983-2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Wanninkhof ◽  
G. -H. Park ◽  
T. Takahashi ◽  
C. Sweeney ◽  
R. Feely ◽  
...  

Abstract. The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs). The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.


2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Antonio Moreira Lima

This paper is concerned with the planning, implementation and some results of the Oceanographic Modeling and Observation Network, named REMO, for Brazilian regional waters. Ocean forecasting has been an important scientific issue over the last decade due to studies related to climate change as well as applications related to short-range oceanic forecasts. The South Atlantic Ocean has a deficit of oceanographic measurements when compared to other ocean basins such as the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean. It is a challenge to design an ocean forecasting system for a region with poor observational coverage of in-situ data. Fortunately, most ocean forecasting systems heavily rely on the assimilation of surface fields such as sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) or sea surface temperature (SST), acquired by environmental satellites, that can accurately provide information that constrain major surface current systems and their mesoscale activity. An integrated approach is proposed here in which the large scale circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is modeled in a first step, and gradually nested into higher resolution regional models that are able to resolve important processes such as the Brazil Current and associated mesoscale variability, continental shelf waves, local and remote wind forcing, and others. This article presents the overall strategy to develop the models using a network of Brazilian institutions and their related expertise along with international collaboration. This work has some similarity with goals of the international project Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment OceanView (GODAE OceanView).


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1335
Author(s):  
Ronald Souza ◽  
Luciano Pezzi ◽  
Sebastiaan Swart ◽  
Fabrício Oliveira ◽  
Marcelo Santini

The Brazil–Malvinas Confluence (BMC) is one of the most dynamical regions of the global ocean. Its variability is dominated by the mesoscale, mainly expressed by the presence of meanders and eddies, which are understood to be local regulators of air-sea interaction processes. The objective of this work is to study the local modulation of air-sea interaction variables by the presence of either a warm (ED1) and a cold core (ED2) eddy, present in the BMC, during September to November 2013. The translation and lifespans of both eddies were determined using satellite-derived sea level anomaly (SLA) data. Time series of satellite-derived surface wind data, as well as these and other meteorological variables, retrieved from ERA5 reanalysis at the eddies’ successive positions in time, allowed us to investigate the temporal modulation of the lower atmosphere by the eddies’ presence along their translation and lifespan. The reanalysis data indicate a mean increase of 78% in sensible and 55% in latent heat fluxes along the warm eddy trajectory in comparison to the surrounding ocean of the study region. Over the cold core eddy, on the other hand, we noticed a mean reduction of 49% and 25% in sensible and latent heat fluxes, respectively, compared to the adjacent ocean. Additionally, a field campaign observed both eddies and the lower atmosphere from ship-borne observations before, during and after crossing both eddies in the study region during October 2013. The presence of the eddies was imprinted on several surface meteorological variables depending on the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eddy cores. In situ oceanographic and meteorological data, together with high frequency micrometeorological data, were also used here to demonstrate that the local, rather than the large scale forcing of the eddies on the atmosphere above, is, as expected, the principal driver of air-sea interaction when transient atmospheric systems are stable (not actively varying) in the study region. We also make use of the in situ data to show the differences (biases) between bulk heat flux estimates (used on atmospheric reanalysis products) and eddy covariance measurements (taken as “sea truth”) of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The findings demonstrate the importance of short-term changes (minutes to hours) in both the atmosphere and the ocean in contributing to these biases. We conclude by emphasizing the importance of the mesoscale oceanographic structures in the BMC on impacting local air-sea heat fluxes and the marine atmospheric boundary layer stability, especially under large scale, high-pressure atmospheric conditions.


2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Italo Masotti ◽  
Sauveur Belviso ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Alessandro Tagliabue ◽  
Eva Bucciarelli

Environmental context Models are needed to predict the importance of the changes in marine emissions of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in response to ocean warming, increased stratification and acidification, and to evaluate the potential effects on the Earth’s climate. We use complementary simulations to further our understanding of the marine cycle of DMS in subtropical waters, and show that a lack of phosphorus may exert a more important control on surface DMS concentrations than an excess of light. Abstract The occurrence of a summer DMS paradox in the vast subtropical gyres is a strong matter of debate because approaches using discrete measurements, climatological data and model simulations yielded contradictory results. The major conclusion of the first appraisal of prognostic ocean DMS models was that such models need to give more weight to the direct effect of environmental forcings (e.g. irradiance) on DMS dynamics to decouple them from ecological processes. Here, the relative role of light and phosphorus on summer DMS dynamics in subtropical waters is assessed using the ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model NEMO-PISCES in which macronutrient concentrations were restored to monthly climatological data values to improve the representation of phosphate concentrations. Results show that the vertical and temporal decoupling between chlorophyll and DMS concentrations observed in the Sargasso Sea during the summer months is captured by the model. Additional sensitivity tests show that the simulated control of phosphorus on surface DMS concentrations in the Sargasso Sea is much more important than that of light. By extending the analysis to the whole North Atlantic Ocean, we show that the longitudinal distribution of DMS during summer is asymmetrical and that a correlation between the solar radiation dose and DMS concentrations only occurs in the Sargasso Sea. The lack of a widespread summer DMS paradox in our model simulation as well as in the comparison of discrete and climatological data could be due to the limited occurrence of phosphorus limitation in the global ocean.


2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 2811-2832 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Zhang ◽  
H. Wan ◽  
M. Zhang ◽  
B. Wang

Abstract. The radioactive species radon (222Rn) has long been used as a test tracer for the numerical simulation of large scale transport processes. In this study, radon transport experiments are carried out using an atmospheric GCM with a finite-difference dynamical core, the van Leer type FFSL advection algorithm, and two state-of-the-art cumulus convection parameterization schemes. Measurements of surface concentration and vertical distribution of radon collected from the literature are used as references in model evaluation. The simulated radon concentrations using both convection schemes turn out to be consistent with earlier studies with many other models. Comparison with measurements indicates that at the locations where significant seasonal variations are observed in reality, the model can reproduce both the monthly mean surface radon concentration and the annual cycle quite well. At those sites where the seasonal variation is not large, the model is able to give a correct magnitude of the annual mean. In East Asia, where radon simulations are rarely reported in the literature, detailed analysis shows that our results compare reasonably well with the observations. The most evident changes caused by the use of a different convection scheme are found in the vertical distribution of the tracer. The scheme associated with weaker upward transport gives higher radon concentration up to about 6 km above the surface, and lower values in higher altitudes. In the lower part of the atmosphere results from this scheme does not agree as well with the measurements as the other scheme. Differences from 6 km to the model top are even larger, although we are not yet able to tell which simulation is better due to the lack of observations at such high altitudes.


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