Ocean Phosphorus Inventory and Ocean Deoxygenation:
Large Uncertainties in Future Projections on Millennial
Timescales
Abstract. Previous studies have suggested that weathering and benthic phosphorus (P) fluxes, triggered by climate warming, can increase the oceanic P inventory on millennial time scales, promoting ocean productivity and deoxygenation. In this study, we assessed the major uncertainties in projected P inventories and their imprint on ocean deoxygenation using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity for a business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emission scenario until year 2300 and subsequent linear decline to zero emissions until year 3000. Model results suggest a large spread in the simulated oceanic P inventory due to uncertainties in (1) assumptions for weathering parameters, (2) the representation of bathymetry on slopes and shelves in the model bathymetry, (3) the parametrization of benthic P fluxes and (4) the representation of sediment P inventories. Our best estimate for changes in the global ocean P inventory by the year 5000 caused by global warming amounts to +30 % compared to pre-industrial levels. Weathering, benthic and anthropogenic fluxes of P contributed +25 %, +3 % and +2 % respectively. The total range of oceanic P inventory changes across all model simulations varied between +2 % and +60 %. Suboxic volumes were up to 5 times larger than in a model simulation with a constant oceanic P inventory. Considerably large amounts of the additional P left the ocean surface unused by phytoplankton via physical transport processes as preformed P. Nitrogen fixation was not able to adjust the oceanic nitrogen inventory to the increasing P levels or to compensate for the nitrogen loss due to increased denitrification. This is in contrast to palaeo reconstructions of large-scale deoxygenation events. We suggest that uncertainties in P weathering, nitrogen fixation and benthic P feedbacks need to be reduced to achieve more reliable projections of oceanic deoxygenation on millennial timescales.