scholarly journals Southern Ocean as a constrain to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 2645-2688
Author(s):  
A. Kessler ◽  
J. Tjiputra
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Co2 Uptake

Abstract. Earth System Model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observations of the present ocean CO2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases by nearly two-fold by the end of the 21st century, and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biological-mediated carbon drawdown in the Spring and Summer. We show, by analyzing a suite of fully-interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high CO2 RCP8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO2. Two groups of model behaviour have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too-strong net primary production and too-low surface pCO2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. We show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlight the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.

scholarly journals The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kessler ◽  
J. Tjiputra
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Uptake Rate ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Co2 Uptake

Abstract. Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. We show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. Nevertheless, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO2. Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface pCO2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. We show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.

scholarly journals Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16° S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (70) ◽  
pp. 89-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Réveillet ◽  
Antoine Rabatel ◽  
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
Alvaro Soruco
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractBolivian glaciers are an essential source of fresh water for the Altiplano, and any changes they may undergo in the near future due to ongoing climate change are of particular concern. Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia, located near the administrative capital La Paz, has been extensively monitored by the GLACIOCLIM observatory in the last two decades. Here we model the glacier dynamics using the 3-D full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice. The model was calibrated and validated over a recent period (1997–2010) using four independent datasets: available observations of surface velocities and surface mass balance were used for calibration, and changes in surface elevation and retreat of the glacier front were used for validation. Over the validation period, model outputs are in good agreement with observations (differences less than a small percentage). The future surface mass balance is assumed to depend on the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and temperature changes through the sensitivity of ELA to temperature. The model was then forced for the 21st century using temperature changes projected by nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here we give results for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The intermediate scenario RCP6.0 led to 69 ± 7% volume loss by 2100, while the two extreme scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, led to 40 ± 7% and 89 ± 4% loss of volume, respectively.

scholarly journals Explicit silicate cycling in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemistry Model, version 3 (KMBM3) embedded in the UVic ESCM version 2.9

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin Kvale ◽  
David P. Keller ◽  
Wolfgang Koeve ◽  
Katrin J. Meissner ◽  
Chris Somes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
New Model ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract. We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key aspect of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. The new model performs well against important ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle. Furthermore it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully-coupled, long-timescale transient simulations, as well as "offline" transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully-coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record since 1960, and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.3 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern mid-latitudes, and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to pre-industrial rates by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatoms migrate southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but are out-competed by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 50 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients phosphate, silicate, and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite, scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particle forms), and stratification that "traps" the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.

scholarly journals Spatial variability of surface pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux in the Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Mu ◽  
S. E. Stammerjohn ◽  
K. E. Lowry ◽  
P. L. Yager
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Central Region ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
High Flux ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Ice Melt

Abstract Partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and dissolved oxygen (DO) in the surface waters of the Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) were measured during austral summer 2010–2011 on the Amundsen Sea Polynya International Research Expedition (ASPIRE). Surface pCO2 in the central polynya was as low as 130 µatm, mainly due to strong net primary production. Comparing saturation states of pCO2 and DO distinguished dominant factors (biological activity, temperature, upwelling, and ice melt) controlling pCO2 across regions. Air-sea CO2 flux, estimated using average shipboard winds, showed high spatial variability (-52 to 25 mmol C m-2 d-1) related to these factors. The central region exhibited a high flux of -36 ± 8.4 mmol C m-2 d-1, which is ∼ 50% larger than that reported for the peak of the bloom in the well-studied Ross Sea, comparable to high rates reported for the Chukchi Sea, and significantly higher than reported for most continental shelves around the world. This central region (∼ 20,000 km2) accounted for 85% of the CO2 uptake for the entire open water area. Margins with lower algal biomass accounted for ∼ 15% of regional carbon uptake, likely resulting from pCO2 reductions by sea ice melt. During ASPIRE we also observed pCO2 up to 490 µatm in a small region near the Dotson Ice Shelf with an efflux of 11 ± 5.4 mmol C m-2 d-1 that offset about 3% of the uptake in the much larger central region. Overall, the 2010–2011 ASP was a large net sink for atmospheric CO2 with a spatially averaged flux density of -18 ± 14 mmol C m-2 d-1. This high flux suggests a disproportionate influence on the uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean. Since the region has experienced a significant increase in open water duration (1979–2013), we speculate about whether this CO2 sink will increase with future climate-driven change.

scholarly journals Mechanisms of the Sea–Air CO<sub>2</sub> Flux Seasonal Cycle biases in CMIP5 Earth Systems Models in the Southern Ocean

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Precious Mongwe ◽  
Marcello Vichi ◽  
Pedro M. S. Monteiro
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Co2 Solubility ◽  
Group A ◽  
Group B

Abstract. The Southern Ocean forms a key component of the global carbon cycle. Recent studies, however, show that CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESM) disagree on the representation of the seasonal cycle of the CO2 flux (FCO2) and compare poorly to observations in the Southern Ocean. This model-observations bias has important implications on the ability of ESMs to predict century scale CO2 sink and related climate feedbacks. In this study, we used a specialized diagnostic analysis on 10 CMIP5 models in the Southern Ocean to discriminate the role of the major drivers, namely the temperature control and the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Our analysis shows that the FCO2 biases in CMIP5 models cluster in two major groups. Group A models (MPI-ESM-MR, NorESM2 and HadGEM-ES) are characterized by exaggerated primary production such that biologically driven DIC changes mainly regulate the seasonal cycle of FCO2. Group-B (CMCC-CESM, GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MRI-ESM, CanESM2, CNRS-CERFACS) overestimates the role of temperature and thus the change in CO2 solubility becomes a dominant driver of FCO2 variability. While CMIP5 models mostly show a singular dominant influence of these two extremes, observations show a modest influence of both, with a dominance of DIC regulation. We found that CMIP5 models overestimate cooling and warming rates during autumn and spring with respect to observations. Because of this, the role of solubility is overestimated, particularly during these seasons (autumn and spring) in group B models, to the extent of contradicting the biological CO2 uptake during spring. Group A does not show this solubility driven bias due to the overestimation of DIC draw down. This finding strongly implies that the inability of the CMIP5 ESMs to resolve CO2 biological uptake during spring might be crucially related to the sensitivity of the pCO2 to temperature in addition to underestimated biological CO2 uptake.

scholarly journals CO<sub>2</sub> flux determination by closed-chamber methods can be seriously biased by inappropriate application of linear regression

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 1005-1025 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Kutzbach ◽  
J. Schneider ◽  
T. Sachs ◽  
M. Giebels ◽  
H. Nykänen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Nonlinear Regression ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
Closed Chamber ◽  
Exponential Regression ◽  
Closure Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Closed (non-steady state) chambers are widely used for quantifying carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between soils or low-stature canopies and the atmosphere. It is well recognised that covering a soil or vegetation by a closed chamber inherently disturbs the natural CO2 fluxes by altering the concentration gradients between the soil, the vegetation and the overlying air. Thus, the driving factors of CO2 fluxes are not constant during the closed chamber experiment, and no linear increase or decrease of CO2 concentration over time within the chamber headspace can be expected. Nevertheless, linear regression has been applied for calculating CO2 fluxes in many recent, partly influential, studies. This approach has been justified by keeping the closure time short and assuming the concentration change over time to be in the linear range. Here, we test if the application of linear regression is really appropriate for estimating CO2 fluxes using closed chambers over short closure times and if the application of nonlinear regression is necessary. We developed a nonlinear exponential regression model from diffusion and photosynthesis theory. This exponential model was tested with four different datasets of CO2 flux measurements (total number: 1764) conducted at three peatlands sites in Finland and a tundra site in Siberia. Thorough analyses of residuals demonstrated that linear regression was frequently not appropriate for the determination of CO2 fluxes by closed-chamber methods, even if closure times were kept short. The developed exponential model was well suited for nonlinear regression of the concentration over time c(t) evolution in the chamber headspace and estimation of the initial CO2 fluxes at closure time for the majority of experiments. However, a rather large percentage of the exponential regression functions showed curvatures not consistent with the theoretical model which is considered to be caused by violations of the underlying model assumptions. Especially the effects of turbulence and pressure disturbances by the chamber deployment are suspected to have caused unexplainable curvatures. CO2 flux estimates by linear regression can be as low as 40% of the flux estimates of exponential regression for closure times of only two minutes. The degree of underestimation increased with increasing CO2 flux strength and was dependent on soil and vegetation conditions which can disturb not only the quantitative but also the qualitative evaluation of CO2 flux dynamics. The underestimation effect by linear regression was observed to be different for CO2 uptake and release situations which can lead to stronger bias in the daily, seasonal and annual CO2 balances than in the individual fluxes. To avoid serious bias of CO2 flux estimates based on closed chamber experiments, we suggest further tests using published datasets and recommend the use of nonlinear regression models for future closed chamber studies.

scholarly journals DASSO: a data assimilation system for the Southern Ocean that utilizes both sea-ice concentration and thickness observations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hao Luo ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Longjiang Mu ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Nerger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract To improve Antarctic sea-ice simulations and estimations, an ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Southern Ocean (DASSO) was developed based on a regional sea ice–ocean coupled model, which assimilates sea-ice thickness (SIT) together with sea-ice concentration (SIC) derived from satellites. To validate the performance of DASSO, experiments were conducted from 15 April to 14 October 2016. Generally, assimilating SIC and SIT can suppress the overestimation of sea ice in the model-free run. Besides considering uncertainties in the operational atmospheric forcing data, a covariance inflation procedure in data assimilation further improves the simulation of Antarctic sea ice, especially SIT. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating sea-ice observations in reconstructing the state of Antarctic sea ice, but also highlight the necessity of more reasonable error estimation for the background as well as the observation.

scholarly journals Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 248
Author(s):  
Tyler Searls ◽  
James Steenberg ◽  
Xinbiao Zhu ◽  
Charles P.-A. Bourque ◽  
Fan-Rui Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Acer Rubrum ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Climate Projections

Models of forest growth and yield (G&Y) are a key component in long-term strategic forest management plans. Models leveraging the industry-standard “empirical” approach to G&Y are frequently underpinned by an assumption of historical consistency in climatic growing conditions. This assumption is problematic as forest managers look to obtain reliable growth predictions under the changing climate of the 21st century. Consequently, there is a pressing need for G&Y modelling approaches that can be more robustly applied under the influence of climate change. In this study we utilized an established forest gap model (JABOWA-3) to simulate G&Y between 2020 and 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Simulations were completed using the province’s permanent sample plot data and surface-fitted climatic datasets. Through model validation, we found simulated basal area (BA) aligned with observed BA for the major conifer species components of NL’s forests, including black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton et al.] and balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill]. Model validation was not as robust for the less abundant species components of NL (e.g., Acer rubrum L. 1753, Populus tremuloides Michx., and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). Our simulations generally indicate that projected climatic changes may modestly increase black spruce and balsam fir productivity in the more northerly growing environments within NL. In contrast, we found productivity of these same species to only be maintained, and in some instances even decline, toward NL’s southerly extents. These generalizations are moderated by species, RCP, and geographic parameters. Growth modifiers were also prepared to render empirical G&Y projections more robust for use under periods of climate change.

Abstract 426: Laminin Downregulation Facilitates Cardiomyocyte Coupling in situ to Increase Contractile Function

2016 ◽  
Vol 119 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayla Sessions ◽  
Gaurav Kaushik ◽  
Adam Engler
Keyword(s):  
Basement Membrane ◽  
Contractile Function ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Model Organisms ◽  
Muscle Physiology ◽  
Heart Tube ◽  
Age Related ◽  
New Evidence

Aging is associated with extensive remodeling of the heart, including basement membrane extracellular matrix (ECM) components that surround cardiomyocytes. Remodeling is thought to contribute to impaired cardiac mechanotransduction, but the contribution of specific basement membrane ECM components to age-related cardiac remodeling is unclear, owing to current model systems being complex and slow to age. To investigate the effect of basement membrane remodeling on mechanical function in genetically tractable, rapidly aging, and simple model organisms, we employed Drosophila melanogaster, which has a simple trilayered heart tube composed of only basement membrane ECM. We observed differential regulation of collagens between laboratory Drosophila strains , i.e. yellow-white ( yw ) and white-1118 ( w 1118 ), leading to changes in muscle physiology, which were linked to severity of dysfunction with age. Therefore, we sought to understand the extent to which basement membrane ECM modulates lateral cardiomyocyte coupling and contractile function during aging. Cardiac-restricted knockdown of ECM genes Pericardin , Laminin A , and Viking in Drosophila prevented age-associated heart tube restriction and increased contractility, even under viscous load. Most notably, reduction of Laminin A expression decreased levels of other genes that co-assemble in ECM, leading to overall preservation of contractile velocity and extension of median organismal lifespan by 3 weeks or 39%. These data provide new evidence of a direct link between basement membrane ECM homeostasis, contractility, and maintenance of lifespan.

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