scholarly journals EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990–2010

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3255-3276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Colette ◽  
Camilla Andersson ◽  
Astrid Manders ◽  
Kathleen Mar ◽  
Mihaela Mircea ◽  
...  

Abstract. The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Colette ◽  
Camilla Andersson ◽  
Astrid Manders ◽  
Kathleen Mar ◽  
Mihaela Mircea ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Eurodelta-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the Eurodelta-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers with increasing degree of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and three models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (emissions/boundary conditions/meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem and radiative forcing.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 6393-6421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eri Saikawa ◽  
Hankyul Kim ◽  
Min Zhong ◽  
Alexander Avramov ◽  
Yu Zhao ◽  
...  

Abstract. Anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have been increasing rapidly in China, leading to worsening air quality. Modelers use emissions inventories to represent the temporal and spatial distribution of these emissions needed to estimate their impacts on regional and global air quality. However, large uncertainties exist in emissions estimates. Thus, assessing differences in these inventories is essential for the better understanding of air pollution over China. We compare five different emissions inventories estimating emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) from China. The emissions inventories analyzed in this paper include the Regional Emission inventory in ASia v2.1 (REAS), the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research v4.2 (EDGAR), the inventory by Yu Zhao (ZHAO), and the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS). We focus on the period between 2000 and 2008, during which Chinese economic activities more than doubled. In addition to national totals, we also analyzed emissions from four source sectors (industry, transport, power, and residential) and within seven regions in China (East, North, Northeast, Central, Southwest, Northwest, and South) and found that large disagreements exist among the five inventories at disaggregated levels. These disagreements lead to differences of 67 µg m−3, 15 ppbv, and 470 ppbv for monthly mean PM10, O3, and CO, respectively, in modeled regional concentrations in China. We also find that all the inventory emissions estimates create a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited environment and MEIC emissions lead to much lower O3 mixing ratio in East and Central China compared to the simulations using REAS and EDGAR estimates, due to their low VOC emissions. Our results illustrate that a better understanding of Chinese emissions at more disaggregated levels is essential for finding effective mitigation measures for reducing national and regional air pollution in China.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 7451-7471 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Colette ◽  
B. Bessagnet ◽  
R. Vautard ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
S. Rao ◽  
...  

Abstract. To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming) over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 6455-6499 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Colette ◽  
B. Bessagnet ◽  
R. Vautard ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
S. Rao ◽  
...  

Abstract. To quantify changes in air pollution in Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant and relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or long range transport. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" bearing upon ozone over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature: such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of each contributing factor shows that the magnitude of the ozone climate penalty has been overstated in the past while on the contrary the contribution of the global ozone burden is overlooked in the literature.


2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (28) ◽  
pp. 7756-7761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Liu ◽  
Denise L. Mauzerall ◽  
Qi Chen ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Yu Song ◽  
...  

As part of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government has developed air pollution prevention and control plans for key regions with a focus on the power, transport, and industrial sectors. Here, we investigate the contribution of residential emissions to regional air pollution in highly polluted eastern China during the heating season, and find that dramatic improvements in air quality would also result from reduction in residential emissions. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry to evaluate potential residential emission controls in Beijing and in the Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei (BTH) region. In January and February 2010, relative to the base case, eliminating residential emissions in Beijing reduced daily average surface PM2.5 (particulate mater with aerodynamic diameter equal or smaller than 2.5 micrometer) concentrations by 14 ± 7 μg⋅m−3 (22 ± 6% of a baseline concentration of 67 ± 41 μg⋅m−3; mean ± SD). Eliminating residential emissions in the BTH region reduced concentrations by 28 ± 19 μg⋅m−3 (40 ± 9% of 67 ± 41 μg⋅m−3), 44 ± 27 μg⋅m−3 (43 ± 10% of 99 ± 54 μg⋅m−3), and 25 ± 14 μg⋅m−3 (35 ± 8% of 70 ± 35 μg⋅m−3) in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces, respectively. Annually, elimination of residential sources in the BTH region reduced emissions of primary PM2.5 by 32%, compared with 5%, 6%, and 58% achieved by eliminating emissions from the transportation, power, and industry sectors, respectively. We also find air quality in Beijing would benefit substantially from reductions in residential emissions from regional controls in Tianjin and Hebei, indicating the value of policies at the regional level.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (19) ◽  
pp. 11411-11432 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Janssens-Maenhout ◽  
M. Crippa ◽  
D. Guizzardi ◽  
F. Dentener ◽  
M. Muntean ◽  
...  

Abstract. The mandate of the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is to improve the scientific understanding of the intercontinental air pollution transport, to quantify impacts on human health, vegetation and climate, to identify emission mitigation options across the regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and to guide future policies on these aspects. The harmonization and improvement of regional emission inventories is imperative to obtain consolidated estimates on the formation of global-scale air pollution. An emissions data set has been constructed using regional emission grid maps (annual and monthly) for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts. This compilation of different regional gridded inventories – including that of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for USA, the EPA and Environment Canada (for Canada), the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) for Europe, and the Model Inter-comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) for China, India and other Asian countries – was gap-filled with the emission grid maps of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3) for the rest of the world (mainly South America, Africa, Russia and Oceania). Emissions from seven main categories of human activities (power, industry, residential, agriculture, ground transport, aviation and shipping) were estimated and spatially distributed on a common grid of 0.1° × 0.1° longitude-latitude, to yield monthly, global, sector-specific grid maps for each substance and year. The HTAP_v2.2 air pollutant grid maps are considered to combine latest available regional information within a complete global data set. The disaggregation by sectors, high spatial and temporal resolution and detailed information on the data sources and references used will provide the user the required transparency. Because HTAP_v2.2 contains primarily official and/or widely used regional emission grid maps, it can be recommended as a global baseline emission inventory, which is regionally accepted as a reference and from which different scenarios assessing emission reduction policies at a global scale could start. An analysis of country-specific implied emission factors shows a large difference between industrialised countries and developing countries for acidifying gaseous air pollutant emissions (SO2 and NOx) from the energy and industry sectors. This is not observed for the particulate matter emissions (PM10, PM2.5), which show large differences between countries in the residential sector instead. The per capita emissions of all world countries, classified from low to high income, reveal an increase in level and in variation for gaseous acidifying pollutants, but not for aerosols. For aerosols, an opposite trend is apparent with higher per capita emissions of particulate matter for low income countries.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youwen Sun ◽  
Hao Yin ◽  
Cheng Liu ◽  
Lin Zhang ◽  
Yuan Cheng ◽  
...  

Abstract. The major air pollutant emissions have decreased and the overall air quality has substantially improved across China in recent years as a consequence of active clean air policies for mitigating severe air pollution problems. As key precursors of formaldehyde (HCHO) and ozone (O3), the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in China are still increasing because current clean air policies lack mitigation measures for VOCs. In this study, we mapped the drivers of HCHO variability over eastern China using ground-based high-resolution Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry and GEOS-Chem model simulation. Diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variability of HCHO over eastern China was investigated and hydroxyl (OH) radical production from HCHO was evaluated. The relative contributions of emitted and photochemical sources to the observed HCHO were analysed by using ground level carbon monoxide (CO) and Ox (O3 + nitrogen oxide (NO2)) as tracers for emitted and photochemical HCHO, respectively. Contributions of various emission sectors and geographical transport to the observed HCHO summertime enhancements were determined by using a GEOS-Chem tagged-tracer simulation. The tropospheric HCHO volume mixing ratio (VMR) reached a maximum monthly mean value of (1.1 ± 0.27) ppbv in July and a minimum monthly mean value of (0.4 ± 0.11) ppbv in January. The tropospheric HCHO VMR time series from 2015–2019 shows a positive trend of (1.43 ± 0.14) % per yr. The photochemical HCHO is the dominant source of atmospheric HCHO over eastern China for most of the year (68.1 %). In the studied years, the HCHO photolysis was an important source of OH radical over eastern China during all sunlight hours of both summer and winter days. The anthropogenic emissions (fossil fuel + biofuel emissions) accounted for 31.96 % and the natural emissions (biomass burning + biogenic) accounted for 48.75 % of HCHO summertime enhancements. The observed HCHO summertime enhancements were largely attributed to the emissions within China (76.92 %), where eastern China dominated the contribution (46.24 %). The increased trend in HCHO in recent years was largely attributed to the increase in the HCHO precursors such as CH4 and nonmethane VOCs (NMVOCs). This study can provide an evaluation of recent VOC emissions and regional photochemical capacity in China. In addition, this study is also important for regulatory and control purposes and will help to improve urban air quality and contribute to the formation of new Chinese clean air policies in the future.


Author(s):  
Oleksandr Zaporozhets ◽  
Sergii Karpenko ◽  
Sergii Puzik ◽  
Bogdan Sagaidak

Development of a single method for inventory of pollutant emissions from installations based on the elaboration of existing methods for calculation of air pollution is an important scientific and practical task in the field of environmental safety. The main purpose of the study is to test and compare models of stationary emission sources and to assess air quality based on them. In the inventory of pollutant emissions, the following materials are used: direct measurements, which are based on direct instrumental measurements, and calculated measurements or combinations thereof. According to the direct measurements of NOx and CO emissions from the operation of gas turbines at the Valley compressor station with a nominal capacity of 1 to 50 MW, we found that: the actual emissions of NO and CO increase with the average load on the installation and the time of introduction into operation and date of issue and the actual values of the maximum allowable concentration of NOx (from 100.13 to 467 mg / m) and CO (from 16.08 to 444.88 mg / m) do not exceed the permissible levels of NO-500 mg / m and CO-250 mg / m according to the instructional documents. Comparison of these calculation methods showed the same results, which confirms the need for their systematization with the subsequent development of a single methodology. The distance of 106 m, where the maximum concentration of pollution in adverse weather conditions is expected, was obtained by the calculation method of determining the surface concentration of NOx and CO emissions from the installation. To assess the effectiveness of the methods for inventory of pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from gas turbines, we have developed a scheme of relationship between the object being assessed for efficiency and the object being serviced. Particularly noteworthy are the results and analysis of direct measurements of NOx and CO emissions, as well as the developed scheme for linking the inventory process for pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from installations. The actual concentration of pollutants can be estimated by measuring the background, although in this case it is impossible to exclude the influence of other neighboring and remote emission sources on the results of the air pollution assessment. Depending on the specific task, the results of computer simulation for given parameters of the external environment can also be used to assess the actual, retrospective or prospective conditions. Future conditions can be modeled only with the help of computer simulation. The method of air pollutant concentration calculation for emissions of enterprises does not consider all possible features of emission sources and, in terms of passive stationary sources and cold emissions, the algorithm needs to be clarified and the justifications in the paper indicate ways to make these improvements. Inventory is the first stage in the strategy of air quality regulation, as it provides information for the development, justification and decision-making in regulating the activities of gas turbines to reduce adverse effects on the environment and public health.


Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agapol Junpen ◽  
Jirataya Pansuk ◽  
Orachorn Kamnoet ◽  
Penwadee Cheewaphongphan ◽  
Savitri Garivait

Crop residue burning negatively impacts both the environment and human health, whether in the aspect of air pollution, regional and global climate change, or transboundary air pollution. Accordingly, this study aims to assess the level of air pollutant emissions caused by the rice residue open burning activities in 2018, by analyzing the remote sensing information and country specific data. This research also aims to analyze the trend of particulate matter 10 microns or less in diameter (PM10) concentration air quality sites in provinces with large paddy rice planting areas from 2010–2017. According to the results, 61.87 megaton (Mt) of rice residue were generated, comprising 21.35 Mt generated from the irrigated fields and 40.53 Mt generated from the rain-fed field. Only 23.0% of the total rice residue generated were subject to open burning—of which nearly 32% were actually burned in the fields. The emissions from such rice residue burning consisted of: 5.34 ± 2.33 megaton (Mt) of CO2, 44 ± 14 kiloton (kt) of CH4, 422 ± 179 kt of CO, 2 ± 2 kt of NOX, 2 ± 2 kt of SO2, 38 ± 22 kt of PM2.5, 43 ± 29 kt of PM10, 2 ± 1 kt of black carbon (BC), and 14 ± 5 kt of organic carbon (OC). According to the air quality trends, the results shows the higher level of PM10 concentration was due to the agricultural burning activities, as reflected in the higher monthly averages of the months with the agricultural burning, by around 1.9–2.1 times. The result also shows the effect of government’s policy for farmers on the crop burning activities and air quality trends.


2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 1501-1517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toon Vandyck ◽  
Kimon Keramidas ◽  
Stéphane Tchung-Ming ◽  
Matthias Weitzel ◽  
Rita Van Dingenen

AbstractThe overlap in sources of greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions creates scope for policy measures to limit global warming and improve air quality simultaneously. In a first step, we derive estimates for the air pollution mortality-related component of the social cost of atmospheric release for 6 pollutants and 56 regions in the world. Combining these estimates with emission inventory data highlights that sector contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution health impacts differ widely across regions. Next, simulations of future emission pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets illustrate that strengthening climate policy ambition raises the total value of air quality co-benefits despite lower marginal co-benefits per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions abated. Finally, we use results from a multi-model ensemble to quantify and compare the value of health-related ambient air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions. On the global level, overall air quality co-benefits range from $8 to $40 per tonne of greenhouse gases abated in 2030, with median across models and scenarios of $18/tCO2e. These results mask strong differentiation across regions and sectors, with median co-benefits from mitigation in the residential and service sectors in India exceeding $500/tCO2e. By taking a sector- and region-specific perspective, the results presented here reveal promising channels to improve human health outcomes and to ratchet up greenhouse gas reduction efforts to bridge the gap between countries’ pledges and the global targets of the Paris Agreement.


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