scholarly journals Prediction of source contributions to urban background PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations in European cities: a case study for an episode in December 2016 using EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 – Part 2: The city contribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 4143-4158
Author(s):  
Matthieu Pommier

Abstract. Despite the progress made in the latest decades, air pollution is still the primary environmental cause of premature death in Europe. The urban population risks more likely to suffer to pollution related to high concentrations of air pollutants, such as in particulate matter smaller than 10 µm (PM10). Since the composition of these particulates varies with space and time, the understanding of the origin is essential to determine the most efficient control strategies. A source contribution calculation allows us to provide such information and thus to determine the geographical location of the sources (e.g. city or country) responsible for the air pollution episodes. In this study, the calculations provided by the regional European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (EMEP/MSC-W) rv4.15 model in a forecast mode, with a 0.25∘ longitude × 0.125∘ latitude resolution, and based on a scenario approach, have been explored. To do so, the work has focused on event occurring between 1 and 9 December 2016. This source contribution calculation aims at quantifying over 34 European cities, the “city” contribution of these PM10, i.e. from the city itself, on an hourly basis. Since the methodology used in the model is based on reduced anthropogenic emissions, compared to a reference run, the choice of the percentage in the reductions has been tested by using three different values (5 %, 15 %, and 50 %). The definition of the “city” contribution, and thus the definition of the area defining the cities is also an important parameter. The impact of the definition of these urban areas, for the studied cities, was investigated (i.e. one model grid cell, nine grid cells and the grid cells covering the definition given by the global administrative area – GADM). Using a 15 % reduction in the emission and larger cities for our source contribution calculation (e.g. nine grid cells and GADM) helps to reduce the non-linearity in the concentration changes. This non-linearity is observed in the mismatch between the total concentration and the sum of the concentrations from different calculated sources. When this non-linearity is observed, it impacts the NO3-, NH4+, and H2O concentrations. However, the mean non-linearity represents only less than 2 % of the total modelled PM10 calculated by the system. During the studied episode, it was found that 20 % of the surface predicted PM10 had been from the “city”, essentially composed of primary components. In total, 60 % of the hourly PM10 concentrations predicted by the model came from the countries in the regional domain, and they were essentially composed of NO3- (by ∼ 35  %). The two other secondary inorganic aerosols are also important components of this “rest of Europe” contribution, since SO42- and NH4+ represent together almost 30 % of this contribution. The rest of the PM10 was mainly due to natural sources. It was also shown that the central European cities were mainly impacted by the surrounding countries while the cities located a bit away from the rest of the other European countries (e.g. Oslo and Lisbon) had larger “city” contributions. The usefulness of the forecasting tool has also been illustrated with an example in Paris, since the system has been able to predict the primary sources of a local polluted event on 1–2 December 2016, as documented by local authorities.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Pommier

Abstract. Despite the progress made in the latest decades, air pollution is still the primary environmental cause of premature death in Europe. The urban population risks more likely to suffer to pollution related to high concentrations of air pollutants such as in particulate matter smaller than 10 µm (PM10). Since the composition of these particulates varies with space and time, the understanding of the origin is essential to determine the most efficient control strategies. A source contribution calculation allows to provide such information and thus to determine the geographical location of the sources (e.g. city or country) responsible for the air pollution episodes. In this study, the calculations provided by the regional EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 model in a forecast mode, with a 0.25° longitude × 0.125° latitude resolution, and based on a scenario approach, have been explored. To do so, the work has focused on event occurring between 01 and 09 December 2016. This source contribution calculation aims at quantifying over 34 European cities the Local contribution of these PM10, i.e. from the city itself, on an hourly basis. Since the methodology used in the model is based on reduced anthropogenic emissions, compared to a reference run, the choice of the percentage in the reductions has been tested by using three different values (5 %, 15 % and 50 %). The definition of the Local contribution, and thus the definition of the area defining the cities is also an important parameter. The impact of the definition of these urban areas, for the studied cities, was investigated (i.e. 1 model grid cell, 9 grid cells and the grid cells covering the definition given by the Global Administrative Area – GADM). Using a 15 % reduction in the emission and the use of larger cities for our source contribution calculation (e.g. 9 grid cells and GADM), help to reduce the non-linearity in the concentration changes. This non-linearity is observed in the mismatch between the total concentration and the sum of the concentrations from different calculated sources. When this non-linearity is observed, it impacts the NO3−, NH4+ and H2O concentrations. However, the mean non-linearity represents only less than 2 % of the total modelled PM10 calculated by the system. During the studied episode, it was found that 20 % of the predicted PM10 had a Local origin, essentially composed of primary components. 60 % of the hourly PM10 concentrations predicted by the model came from the countries in the regional domain, and they were essentially composed of NO3−. The rest of the PM10 was mainly due to natural sources. It was also shown that the Central European cities were mainly impacted by the surrounding countries while the cities located a little away from the rest of the other European countries (e.g. Oslo and Lisbon) had larger Local contribution. The usefulness of the forecasting tool has also been illustrated with an example in Paris, since the system has been able to predict a local polluted event on 02 December 2016 as documented by local authorities.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1787-1807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Pommier ◽  
Hilde Fagerli ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Alvaro Valdebenito ◽  
Richard Kranenburg ◽  
...  

Abstract. A large fraction of the urban population in Europe is exposed to particulate matter levels above the WHO guideline value. To make more effective mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the influence on particulate matter (PM) from pollutants emitted in different European nations. In this study, we evaluate a country source contribution forecasting system aimed at assessing the domestic and transboundary contributions to PM in major European cities for an episode in December 2016. The system is composed of two models (EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 and LOTOS-EUROS v2.0), which allows the consideration of differences in the source attribution. We also compared the PM10 concentrations, and both models present satisfactory agreement in the 4 d forecasts of the surface concentrations, since the hourly concentrations can be highly correlated with in situ observations. The correlation coefficients reach values of up to 0.58 for LOTOS-EUROS and 0.50 for EMEP for the urban stations; the values are 0.58 for LOTOS-EUROS and 0.72 for EMEP for the rural stations. However, the models underpredict the highest hourly concentrations measured by the urban stations (mean underestimation of 36 %), which is to be expected given the relatively coarse model resolution used (0.25∘ longitude × 0.125∘ latitude). For the source attribution calculations, LOTOS-EUROS uses a labelling technique, while the EMEP/MSC-W model uses a scenario having reduced anthropogenic emissions, and then it is compared to a reference run where no changes are applied. Different percentages (5 %, 15 %, and 50 %) for the reduced emissions in the EMEP/MSC-W model were used to test the robustness of the methodology. The impact of the different ways to define the urban area for the studied cities was also investigated (i.e. one model grid cell, nine grid cells, and grid cells covering the definition given by the Global Administrative Areas – GADM). We found that the combination of a 15 % emission reduction and a larger domain (nine grid cells or GADM) helps to preserve the linearity between emission and concentrations changes. The nonlinearity, related to the emission reduction scenario used, is suggested by the nature of the mismatch between the total concentration and the sum of the concentrations from different calculated sources. Even limited, this nonlinearity is observed in the NO3-, NH4+, and H2O concentrations, which is related to gas–aerosol partitioning of the species. The use of a 15 % emission reduction and of a larger city domain also causes better agreement on the determination of the main country contributors between both country source calculations. Over the 34 European cities investigated, PM10 was dominated by domestic emissions for the studied episode (1–9 December 2016). The two models generally agree on the dominant external country contributor (68 % on an hourly basis) to PM10 concentrations. Overall, 75 % of the hourly predicted PM10 concentrations of both models have the same top five main country contributors. Better agreement on the dominant country contributor for primary (emitted) species (70 % is found for primary organic matter (POM) and 80 % for elemental carbon – EC) than for the inorganic secondary component of the aerosol (50 %), which is predictable due to the conceptual differences in the source attribution used by both models. The country contribution calculated by the scenario approach depends on the chemical regime, which largely impacts the secondary components, unlike the calculation using the labelling approach.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Pommier ◽  
Hilde Fagerli ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Alvaro Valdebenito ◽  
Richard Kranenburg ◽  
...  

Abstract. A large fraction of the urban population in Europe is exposed to particulate matter levels above the WHO guideline. To make more effective mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the influence on particulate matter (PM) from pollutants emitted in different European nations. In this study, we evaluate a source apportionment forecasting system aimed to assess the domestic and transboundary contributions to PM in major European cities for an episode in December 2016. The system is composed of two models (EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 and LOTOS-EUROS v2.0) which allows to consider differences in the source attribution. We also compared the PM10 concentrations and both models present satisfactory agreement in the 4day-forecasts of the surface concentrations, since the hourly concentrations can be highly correlated with in-situ observations. The correlation coefficients reach values up to 0.58 for LOTOS-EUROS and 0.50 for EMEP for the urban stations; and 0.58 for LOTOS-EUROS and 0.72 for EMEP for the rural stations. However, the models under-predict the highest hourly concentrations measured by the urban stations (mean underestimation by 36 %), predictable with the relatively coarse model resolution used (0.25° longitude × 0.125° latitude). For the source receptor calculations, the EMEP/MSC-W model uses a scenario having reduced anthropogenic emissions and then it is compared to a reference run where no changes are applied. Different percentages (5 %, 15 % and 50 %) in the reduced emissions were used to test the robustness of the methodology. The impact of the different ways to define the urban area for the studied cities was also investigated (i.e. 1 model grid cell, 9 grid cells and the grid cells covering the definition given by the Global Administrative Area – GADM). We found that by combining the use of the 15 % factor and of a larger domain for the city edges (9 grid cells or GADM), it helps to reduce the impact of non-linearity on the chemistry which is seen in the mismatch between the total concentration and the sum of the concentrations from different calculated sources. Even limited, this non-linearity is observed in the NO3−, NH4+ and H2O concentrations, which is related to gas-aerosol partitioning of the species. The use of a 15 % factor and of a larger city domain also gives a better agreement in the determination of the main country contributors between both country source receptor calculations. During the studied episode, dominated by the influence of the domestic emissions for the 34 European cities investigated and occurring from December 01st to 09th 2016, the two models agree 68 % of the time (on hourly resolution) on the country, having been the dominant contributor to PM10 concentrations. 75 % of the hourly predicted PM10 concentrations by both models, have the same top 5 main country contributors. Better results are found in the determination the dominant country contributor for the primary component (70 % for POM and 80 % for EC) than for the secondary inorganic aerosols (50 %).


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-126
Author(s):  
Serikbek M. Kuderinov ◽  
Kamila S. Isabekova ◽  
Nazira A. Kuderinova

This article considers the issues of contamination with man-made radionuclides in the land of the city of Semipalatinsk. The purpose of accounting for the impact of land contamination with radionuclides is the assessment of the degree of impact of secondary contamination of urban areas and the definition of the boundary of this contamination, affecting the cadastral value. Factors contributing to the spread of pollution, such as in a coal warehouse, as well as in the burning of coal, during delivery, on automobile roads, which delivers coal to industrial enterprises, boiler-houses and the consumer sector. The sources of secondary pollution, which are located in the city, are considered. It has been established that the cadastral value will have an impact on the level of contamination of the land plot with man-made radionuclides. It is proposed to supplement the boundary plan of contaminated land plots.


2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 116-123
Author(s):  
A. P. Korzh ◽  
T. V. Zahovalko

Recently, the number of published works devoted to the processes of synanthropization of fauna, is growing like an avalanche, which indicates the extreme urgency of this theme. In our view, the process of forming devices to coexist with human and the results of his life reflects the general tandency of the modern nature evolution. Urbanization is characteristic for such a specific group of animals like amphibians, the evidence of which are numerous literature data. Many researchers use this group to assess the bioindicative quality of the environment. For this aim a variety of indicators are used: from the cellular level of life of organization up to the species composition of the group in different territories. At the same time, the interpretation of the results is not always comparable for different areas and often have significantly different interpretations by experts. Urban environment, primarily due to the contamination is extremely aggressive to amphibians. As a consequence, the urban populations of amphibians may be a change in the demographic structure, affecting the reproductive ability of the population, the disappearance of the most sensitive species or individuals, resizing animals, the appearance of abnormalities in the development, etc. At the same time play an important amphibians in the ecosystems of cities, and some species in these conditions even feel relatively comfortable. Therefore, it is interesting to understand the mechanisms of self-sustaining populations of amphibians in urban environments. To assess the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on the development of amphibian populations were used cognitive modeling using the program Vensim PLE. Cognitive map of the model for urban and suburban habitat conditions were the same. The differences concerned the strength of connections between individual factors (migration, fertility, pollution) and their orientation. In general, factors like pollution, parasites, predators had negative impact on the population, reducing its number. The birth rate, food and migration contributed to raising number of individuals. Some of the factors affected on the strength to of each other as well: the majority of the factors affected the structure of the population, had an influence on the fertility. Thanks to it the model reflects the additive effect of complex of factors on the subsequent status of the population. Proposed and analyzed four scenarios differing strength and duration of exposure. In the first scenario, a one-time contamination occurs and not subsequently repeated. The second and third scenario assumes half board contamination, 1 year (2 scenario) and two years (scenario 3). In the fourth scenario, the pollution affected the population of amphibians constantly. In accordance with the results of simulation, much weaker than the natural populations respond to pollution - have them as an intensive population growth and its disappearance at constant pollution is slow. Changes to other parameters of the model showed that this pollution is the decisive factor -only the constant action leads to a lethal outcome for the populations. All other components of the model have a corrective effect on the population dynamics, without changing its underlying trand. In urban areas due to the heavy impact of pollution maintaining the population is only possible thanks to the migration process – the constant replenishment of diminishing micropopulations of natural reserves. This confirms the assumption that the form of existence metapopulations lake frog in the city. In order to maintain the number of amphibians in urban areas at a high level it is necessary to maintain existing migration routes and the creation of new ones. Insular nature of the placement of suitable habitats in urban areas causes the metapopulation structure of the types of urbanists. Therefore, the process of urbanization is much easier for those species whicht are capable of migration in conditions of city. In the initial stages of settling the city micropopulationis formed by selective mortality of the most susceptible individuals to adverse effects. In future, maintaining the categories of individuals is provided mainly due to migration processes metapopulisation form of the species of existence is supported). It should be noted that the changes in the previous levels are always saved in future. In the case of reorganizations of individuals we of morphology can assume the existence of extremely adverse environmental conditions that threaten the extinction of the micropopulations. 


Author(s):  
Hong Chen ◽  
Yang Xu

The impact of environmental regulation has been an important topic. Based on the Chinese Custom Database and China City Statistical Yearbook, this paper investigates the effect of environmental regulation on export values and explores potential mechanisms and heterogeneous effects. Taking advantage of China’s first comprehensive air pollution prevention and control plan, the Air Pollution Control in Key Zones policy, as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ the difference-in-differences method to examine the causal relationship between environmental regulation and exports. We find the statistically significant and negative effect of environmental regulation on exports at the city level. Moreover, we find that the potential mechanism is the change in export values caused by firm entry and exit, especially by exiters, rather than the change in the number of exporting firms in the city caused by firm entry and exit. In addition, we find the heterogeneous effects of environmental regulation based on the differences of environmental policy across cities and the Broad Economic Categories classification.


Urban Studies ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 004209802110005
Author(s):  
Rebekah Plueckhahn

This article explores the experience of living among diverse infrastructural configurations in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, and forms of stigmatisation that arise as a result. In this capital city that experiences extremely cold winters, the provision of heat is a seasonal necessity. Following a history of socialist-era, centrally provided heating, Ulaanbaatar is now made up of a core area of apartments and other buildings undergoing increased expansion, surrounded by vast areas of fenced land plots ( ger districts) not connected to centrally provided heating. In these areas, residents have historically heated their homes through burning coal, a technique that has resulted in seasonal air pollution. Expanding out from Wacquant’s definition of territorial stigmatisation, this article discusses the links between heat generation, air pollution and environmental stigmatisation arising from residents’ association with or proximity to the effects of heat generation and/or infrastructural lack. This type of stigma complexifies the normative divide between the city’s two main built areas. Residents’ attempts to mitigate forms of building and infrastructural ‘quality’ or chanar (in Mongolian) form ways of negotiating their position as they seek different kinds of property. Here, not only are bodies vulnerable to forms of pollution (both air and otherwise), but also buildings and infrastructure are vulnerable to disrepair. Residents’ assessments of infrastructural and building quality move beyond any categorisation of them being a clear ‘resistance’ to deteriorating infrastructural conditions. Instead, an ethnographic lens that positions the viewpoint of the city through these residential experiences reveals a reconceptualisation of the city that challenges infrastructurally determined normative assumptions.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitja Janža ◽  
Joerg Prestor ◽  
Simona Pestotnik ◽  
Brigita Jamnik

The assurance of drinking water supply is one of the biggest emerging global challenges, especially in urban areas. In this respect, groundwater and its management in the urban environment are gaining importance. This paper presents the modeling of nitrogen load from the leaky sewer system and from agriculture and the impact of this pressure on the groundwater quality (nitrate concentration) in the urban aquifer located beneath the City of Ljubljana. The estimated total nitrogen load in the model area of 58 km2 is 334 ton/year, 38% arising from the leaky sewer system and 62% from agriculture. This load was used as input into the groundwater solute transport model to simulate the distribution of nitrate concentration in the aquifer. The modeled nitrate concentrations at the observation locations were found to be on average slightly lower (2.7 mg/L) than observed, and in general reflected the observed contamination pattern. The ability of the presented model to relate and quantify the impact of pressures from different contamination sources on groundwater quality can be beneficially used for the planning and optimization of groundwater management measures for the improvement of groundwater quality.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 431
Author(s):  
Ayako Yoshino ◽  
Akinori Takami ◽  
Keiichiro Hara ◽  
Chiharu Nishita-Hara ◽  
Masahiko Hayashi ◽  
...  

Transboundary air pollution (TAP) and local air pollution (LAP) influence the air quality of urban areas. Fukuoka, located on the west side of Japan and affected by TAP from the Asian continent, is a unique example for understanding the contribution of LAP and TAP. Gaseous species and particulate matter (PM) were measured for approximately three weeks in Fukuoka in the winter of 2018. We classified two distinctive periods, LAP and TAP, based on wind speed. The classification was supported by variations in the concentration of gaseous species and by backward trajectories. Most air pollutants, including NOx and PM, were high in the LAP period and low in the TAP period. However, ozone was the exception. Therefore, our findings suggest that reducing local emissions is necessary. Ozone was higher in the TAP period, and the variation in ozone concentration was relatively small, indicating that ozone was produced outside of the city and transported to Fukuoka. Thus, air pollutants must also be reduced at a regional scale, including in China.


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