scholarly journals Modeling framework for exploring emission impacts of alternative future scenarios

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 2021-2050 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. Loughlin ◽  
W. G. Benjey ◽  
C. G. Nolte

Abstract. This article presents an approach for creating anthropogenic emission scenarios that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The approach focuses on energy production and use since these are principal sources of air pollution. We use the MARKAL model to characterize alternative realizations of the US energy system through 2050. Emission growth factors are calculated for major energy system categories using MARKAL, while growth factors from non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. The SMOKE model uses these factors to grow a base-year 2002 inventory to future years through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios: Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 applies a hypothetical policy that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy system. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role in investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality by the U.S. EPA and others.

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. Loughlin ◽  
W. G. Benjey ◽  
C. G. Nolte

Abstract. This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emission growth factors for energy system categories are calculated using the MARKAL energy system model. Growth factors for non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. These factors are used to grow a 2005 emissions inventory through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios for the United States. Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 adds a hypothetical CO2 mitigation policy. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role within an integrated modeling framework that supports the US EPA's investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 263-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Ran ◽  
D. H. Loughlin ◽  
D. Yang ◽  
Z. Adelman ◽  
B. H. Baek ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census Division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 3119-3136 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Xing ◽  
S. X. Wang ◽  
S. Chatani ◽  
C. Y. Zhang ◽  
W. Wei ◽  
...  

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment; therefore, it is important to understand how China's air pollutant emissions will change and how they will affect regional air quality in the future. Emission scenarios in 2020 were projected using forecasts of energy consumption and emission control strategies based on emissions in 2005, and on recent development plans for key industries in China. We developed four emission scenarios: REF[0] (current control legislations and implementation status), PC[0] (improvement of energy efficiencies and current environmental legislation), PC[1] (improvement of energy efficiencies and better implementation of environmental legislation), and PC[2] (improvement of energy efficiencies and strict environmental legislation). Under the REF[0] scenario, the emission of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 will increase by 17%, 50%, 49% and 18% in 2020, while PM10 emissions will be reduced by 10% over East China, compared to that in 2005. In PC[2], sustainable energy polices will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg and 1.8 Tg, respectively; better implementation of current control policies will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emission by 2.9 Tg, 1.8 Tg, and 1.4 Tg, respectively; strict emission standards will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 3.2 Tg, 3.9 Tg, and 1.7 Tg, respectively. Under the PC[2] scenario, SO2 and PM10 emissions will decrease by 18% and 38%, while NOx and VOC emissions will increase by 3% and 8%, compared to that in 2005. Future air quality in China was simulated using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Under REF[0] emissions, compared to 2005, the surface concentrations of SO2, NO2, hourly maximum ozone in summer, PM2.5, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will increase by 28%, 41%, 8%, 8%, 19% and 25%, respectively, over east China. Under the PC[2] emission scenario, the surface concentrations of SO2, PM2.5, total sulfur depositions will decrease by 18%, 16% and 15%, respectively, and the surface concentrations of NO2, nitrate, hourly maximum ozone in summer, total nitrogen depositions will be kept as 2005 level, over east China. The individual impacts of SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOC and primary PM emission changes on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations have been analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that NOx emission control need to be enhanced during the summertime to obtain both ozone and PM2.5 reduction benefits. NH3 emission controls should also be considered in order to reduce both nitrate concentration and total nitrogen deposition in the future.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 26891-26929 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Xing ◽  
S. X. Wang ◽  
S. Chatani ◽  
C. Y. Zhang ◽  
W. Wei ◽  
...  

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment; therefore, it is important to understand how China's air pollutant emissions will change and how they will affect regional air quality in the future. Emission scenarios in 2020 were projected using forecasts of energy consumption and emission control strategies based on emissions in 2005, and on recent development plans for key industries in China. We developed four emission scenarios: REF[0] (current control legislations and implementation status), PC[0] (improvement of energy efficiencies and current environmental legislation), PC[1] (improvement of energy efficiencies and better implementation of environmental legislation), and PC[2] (improvement of energy efficiencies and strict environmental legislation). Under the REF[0] scenario, the emission of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 will increase by 17%, 50%, 49% and 18% in 2020, while PM will be reduced by 10% over East China, compared to that in 2005. In PC[2], sustainable energy polices will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg and 1.8 Tg, respectively; better implementation of current control policies will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emission by 2.9 Tg, 1.8 Tg, and 1.4 Tg, respectively; strict emission standards will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 3.2 Tg, 3.9 Tg, and 1.7 Tg, respectively. Under the PC[2] scenario, SO2 and PM10 emissions will decrease by 18% and 38%, while NOx and VOC emissions will increase by 3% and 8%, compared to that in 2005. Future air quality in China was simulated using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) with 2005 emissions and 2020 emission scenarios. Under REF[0] emissions, the concentrations of SO2, NO2, hourly maximum ozone in summer, PM2.5, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will increase by 5~47%, 45~53%, 8~12%, 4~15%, 4~37% and 7~14%, respectively, over East China. Under the PC[2] emission scenario, the concentrations of SO2, NO2, hourly maximal ozone in summer, PM2.5, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will change by −28%~16%, −1%~11%, 1%~2%, −24%~−12%, −24%~13%, and 0~3%, respectively. The individual impacts of SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOC and primary PM emission changes on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations have been analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that NOx emission control need to be enhanced during the summertime to obtain both ozone and PM2.5 reduction benefits. NH3 emission controls should also be considered in order to reduce total nitrogen deposition in the future.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1775-1787 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Ran ◽  
D. H. Loughlin ◽  
D. Yang ◽  
Z. Adelman ◽  
B. H. Baek ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year non-power sector emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. eabd6696
Author(s):  
Zongbo Shi ◽  
Congbo Song ◽  
Bowen Liu ◽  
Gongda Lu ◽  
Jingsha Xu ◽  
...  

The COVID-19 lockdowns led to major reductions in air pollutant emissions. Here, we quantitatively evaluate changes in ambient NO2, O3, and PM2.5 concentrations arising from these emission changes in 11 cities globally by applying a deweathering machine learning technique. Sudden decreases in deweathered NO2 concentrations and increases in O3 were observed in almost all cities. However, the decline in NO2 concentrations attributable to the lockdowns was not as large as expected, at reductions of 10 to 50%. Accordingly, O3 increased by 2 to 30% (except for London), the total gaseous oxidant (Ox = NO2 + O3) showed limited change, and PM2.5 concentrations decreased in most cities studied but increased in London and Paris. Our results demonstrate the need for a sophisticated analysis to quantify air quality impacts of interventions and indicate that true air quality improvements were notably more limited than some earlier reports or observational data suggested.


Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Li ◽  
Yung-Ho Chiu ◽  
Liang Lu

Rapid economic development has resulted in a significant increase in energy consumption and pollution such as carbon dioxide (CO2), particulate matter (PM2.5), particulate matter 10 (PM10), SO2, and NO2 emissions, which can cause cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Therefore, to ensure a sustainable future, it is essential to improve economic efficiency and reduce emissions. Using a Meta-frontier Non-radial Directional Distance Function model, this study took energy consumption, the labor force, and fixed asset investments as the inputs, Gross domestic product (GDP) as the desirable output, and CO2 and the Air Quality Index (AQI) scores as the undesirable outputs to assess energy efficiency and air pollutant index efficiency scores in China from 2013–2016 and to identify the areas in which improvements was necessary. It was found that there was a large gap between the western and eastern cities in China. A comparison of the CO2 and AQI in 31 Chinese cities showed a significant difference in the CO2 emissions and AQI efficiency scores, with the lower scoring cities being mainly concentrated in China’s western region. It was therefore concluded that China needs to pay greater attention to the differences in the economic levels, stages of social development, and energy structures in the western cities when developing appropriately focused improvement plans.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafał Blazy ◽  
Jakub Błachut ◽  
Agnieszka Ciepiela ◽  
Rita Łabuz ◽  
Renata Papież

The premise for the selection of the topic discussed in this article is the lack of research on the level of reduction of air pollutant emissions by the use of photovoltaic micro-installations in single-family buildings, both in Poland and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Therefore, the Authors made an attempt to estimate the scale of air pollution reduction (in particular CO2) in the area of the urbanized Metropolitan area of Krakow, which is one of the most polluted regions in Poland. The installation of photovoltaic panels on single-family buildings, co-financed by the government My Electricity Program, is the investment cost in improving the air quality in this region, and thus increasing the well-being of its inhabitants.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3255-3276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Colette ◽  
Camilla Andersson ◽  
Astrid Manders ◽  
Kathleen Mar ◽  
Mihaela Mircea ◽  
...  

Abstract. The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing.


2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 259-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Maria da Conceição Ferreira ◽  
Massano Cardoso

Objective: To determine whether indoor air quality in schools is associated with the prevalence of allergic and respiratory diseases in children. Methods: We evaluated 1,019 students at 51 elementary schools in the city of Coimbra, Portugal. We applied a questionnaire that included questions regarding the demographic, social, and behavioral characteristics of students, as well as the presence of smoking in the family. We also evaluated the indoor air quality in the schools. Results: In the indoor air of the schools evaluated, we identified mean concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) above the maximum reference value, especially during the fall and winter. The CO2 concentration was sometimes as high as 1,942 ppm, implying a considerable health risk for the children. The most prevalent symptoms and respiratory diseases identified in the children were sneezing, rales, wheezing, rhinitis, and asthma. Other signs and symptoms, such as poor concentration, cough, headache, and irritation of mucous membranes, were identified. Lack of concentration was associated with CO2 concentrations above the maximum recommended level in indoor air (p = 0.002). There were no other significant associations. Conclusions: Most of the schools evaluated presented with reasonable air quality and thermal comfort. However, the concentrations of various pollutants, especially CO2, suggest the need for corrective interventions, such as reducing air pollutant sources and improving ventilation. There was a statistically significant association between lack of concentration in the children and exposure to high levels of CO2. The overall low level of pollution in the city of Coimbra might explain the lack of other significant associations.


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