Separating the effects of changes in land cover and climate: a hydro-meteorological analysis of the past 60 yr in Saxony, Germany

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the impact of changes in climate and land use/land cover on water availability is a prerequisite to adapt water management; yet, it can be difficult to separate the effects of these different impacts. In this paper we illustrate a separation and attribution method based on a Budyko framework. We assume that evapotranspiration (ET) is limited by the climatic forcing of precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (E0), but modified by land-surface properties. Impacts of changes in climate (i.e., E0/P) or land-surface changes on ET alter the two dimensionless measures describing relative water (ET/P) and energy partitioning (ET/E0), which allows us to separate and quantify these impacts. We use the separation method to quantify the role of environmental factors on ET using 68 small to medium range river basins covering the greatest part of the German Federal State of Saxony within the period of 1950–2009. The region can be considered as a typical central European landscape with considerable anthropogenic impacts. In the long term, most basins are found to follow the Budyko curve which we interpret as a result of the strong interactions of climate, soils and vegetation. However, two groups of basins deviate. Agriculturally dominated basins at lower altitudes exceed the Budyko curve while a set of high altitude, forested basins fall well below. When visualizing the decadal dynamics on the relative partitioning of water and energy the impacts of climatic and land-surface changes become apparent. After 1960 higher forested basins experienced large land-surface changes which show that the air pollution driven tree damages have led to a decline of annual ET on the order of 38%. In contrast, lower, agricultural dominated areas show no significant changes during that time. However, since the 1990s effective mitigation measures on industrial pollution have been established and the apparent brightening and regrowth has resulted in a significant increase of ET across most basins. In conclusion, data on both, the water and the energy balance is necessary to understand how long-term climate and land cover control evapotranspiration and thus water availability. Further, the detected land-surface change impacts are consistent in space and time with independent forest damage data and thus confirm the validity of the separation approach.

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Separating the effects of changes in land cover and climate: a hydro-meteorological analysis of the past 60 yr in Saxony, Germany

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-8537-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 8537-8580 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. Renner ◽

K. Brust ◽

K. Schwärzel ◽

M. Volk ◽

C. Bernhofer

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Water Availability ◽

Land Surface ◽

Anthropogenic Impacts ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Forest Damage ◽

Evaporative Demand ◽

The Impact ◽

Surface Changes

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the impact of changes in climate and in land use/land cover on water availability is a prerequisite to adapt water management; yet, it can be difficult to separate the effects of these different impacts. Here, we illustrate a separation and attribution method based on a Budyko framework. We assume that ET is limited by the climatic forcing of precipitation P and evaporative demand E0, but modified by land surface properties. Impacts of changes in climate (i.e. E0/P) or land-surface changes on ET alter the two dimensionless measures describing relative water ET/P and energy partitioning ET/E0, which allows us to separate and quantify these impacts. We use the separation method to quantify the role of environmental factors on ET using 68 small to medium range river basins covering the greatest part of Saxony within the period of 1950-2009. The region can be considered a typical Central European landscape with considerable anthropogenic impacts. In the long term, most basins are found to follow the Budyko curve which we interpret as a result of the strong interactions of climate, soils and vegetation. However, two groups of basins deviate. Agriculturally dominated basins at lower altitudes exceed the Budyko curve while a set of high altitude, forested basins fall well below. When visualizing the decadal dynamics on the relative partitioning of water and energy the impacts of climatic and land surface changes become apparent. After 1960 higher forested basins experienced large land surface changes which show that the air pollution driven tree damages have led to a decline of annual ET in the order of 38%. In contrast, lower, agricultural dominated areas show no significant changes during that time. However, since the 1990s when effective mitigation measures on industrial pollution have been established, the apparent brightening and regrowth has resulted in a significant increase of ET across most basins. In conclusion, data on both, the water and the energy balance is necessary to understand how long-term climate and land cover control evapotranspiration and thus water availability. Further, the detected land surface change impacts are consistent in space and time with independent forest damage data and thus confirm the validity of the separation approach.

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Queensland Family Cohort: a study protocol

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044463 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. e044463

Author(s):

Danielle Borg ◽

Kym Rae ◽

Corrine Fiveash ◽

Johanna Schagen ◽

Janelle James-McAlpine ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mental Health ◽

Family Environment ◽

Biological Samples ◽

Local Governments ◽

Financial Stability ◽

Federal State ◽

Physical And Mental Health ◽

Future Health ◽

The Impact

IntroductionThe perinatal–postnatal family environment is associated with childhood outcomes including impacts on physical and mental health and educational attainment. Family longitudinal cohort studies collect in-depth data that can capture the influence of an era on family lifestyle, mental health, chronic disease, education and financial stability to enable identification of gaps in society and provide the evidence for changes in government in policy and practice.Methods and analysisThe Queensland Family Cohort (QFC) is a prospective, observational, longitudinal study that will recruit 12 500 pregnant families across the state of Queensland (QLD), Australia and intends to follow-up families and children for three decades. To identify the immediate and future health requirements of the QLD population; pregnant participants and their partners will be enrolled by 24 weeks of gestation and followed up at 24, 28 and 36 weeks of gestation, during delivery, on-ward, 6 weeks postpartum and then every 12 months where questionnaires, biological samples and physical measures will be collected from parents and children. To examine the impact of environmental exposures on families, data related to environmental pollution, household pollution and employment exposures will be linked to pregnancy and health outcomes. Where feasible, data linkage of state and federal government databases will be used to follow the participants long term. Biological samples will be stored long term for future discoveries of biomarkers of health and disease.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been obtained from the Mater Research Ethics (HREC/16/MHS/113). Findings will be reported to (1) QFC participating families; (2) funding bodies, institutes and hospitals supporting the QFC; (3) federal, state and local governments to inform policy; (4) presented at local, national and international conferences and (5) disseminated by peer-review publications.

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Modelling long-term soil organic carbon dynamics under the impact of land cover change and soil redistribution

CATENA ◽

10.1016/j.catena.2016.12.008 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 151 ◽

pp. 63-73 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Samuel Bouchoms ◽

Zhengang Wang ◽

Veerle Vanacker ◽

Sebastian Doetterl ◽

Kristof Van Oost

Keyword(s):

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Carbon Dynamics ◽

Soil Redistribution ◽

The Impact ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics

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Selection and integration of Earth Observation-based data for an operational disease forecasting system

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18428 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Eleanor A Ainscoe ◽

Barbara Hofmann ◽

Felipe Colon ◽

Iacopo Ferrario ◽

Quillon Harpham ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Dengue Fever ◽

Water Availability ◽

Land Surface ◽

Warning System ◽

Earth Observation ◽

Disease Forecasting ◽

Current Increase ◽

Disease Case ◽

Wide Range

The current increase in the volume and quality of Earth Observation (EO) data being collected by satellites offers the potential to contribute to applications across a wide range of scientific domains. It is well established that there are correlations between characteristics that can be derived from EO satellite data, such as land surface temperature or land cover, and the incidence of some diseases. Thanks to the reliable frequent acquisition and rapid distribution of EO data it is now possible for this field to progress from using EO in retrospective analyses of historical disease case counts to using it in operational forecasting systems.However, bringing together EO-based and non-EO-based datasets, as is required for disease forecasting and many other fields, requires carefully designed data selection, formatting and integration processes. Similarly, it requires careful communication between collaborators to ensure that the priorities of that design process match the requirements of the application.Here we will present work from the D-MOSS (Dengue forecasting MOdel Satellite-based System) project. D-MOSS is a dengue fever early warning system for South and South East Asia that will allow public health authorities to identify areas at high risk of disease epidemics before an outbreak occurs in order to target resources to reduce spreading of epidemics and improve disease control. The D-MOSS system uses EO, meteorological and seasonal weather forecast data, combined with disease statistics and static layers such as land cover, as the inputs into a dengue fever model and a water availability model. Water availability directly impacts dengue epidemics due to the provision of mosquito breeding sites. The datasets are regularly updated with the latest data and run through the models to produce a new monthly forecast. For this we have designed a system to reliably feed standardised data to the models. The project has involved a close collaboration between remote sensing scientists, geospatial scientists, hydrologists and disease modelling experts. We will discuss our approach to the selection of data sources, data source quality assessment, and design of a processing and ingestion system to produce analysis-ready data for input to the disease and water availability models.

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Ecological impact evaluation of urban heat island in Dhaka city; a spatio-temporal approach

10.21203/rs.3.rs-307151/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Kazi Jihadur Rashid ◽

Sumaia Islam ◽

Mohammad Atiqur Rahman

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Urban Heat Island ◽

Land Surface ◽

Ecological Impact ◽

Urban Life ◽

Heat Island ◽

Dhaka City ◽

Ecological Conditions ◽

Urban Heat ◽

The Impact

Abstract Urban heat island (UHI) is one of the major causes for deteriorating ecology of the rapidly expanding Dhaka city in the changing climatic conditions. Although researchers have identified, characterized and modeled UHI in the study area, the ecological evaluation of UHI effect has not yet been focused. This study uses land surface normalization techniques such as urban thermal field variance (UTFVI) to quantify the impact of UHI and also identifies vulnerable UHI areas compared to land cover types. Landsat imageries from 1990 to 2020 were used at decadal intervals. Results of the study primarily show that intensified UHI areas have increased spatially from 33.1–40.9% in response to urban growth throughout the period of 1990 to 2020. Extreme surface temperature values above 31°C have also been shown in open soils in under-construction sites for future developmental purposes. UTFVI is categorized into six categories representing UHI intensity in relation to ecological conditions. Finally, comparative analysis between land use/land cover (LULC) with UTFVI shows that the ecological conditions deteriorate as the intensity of UHI increases in the area. The developed areas facing ecological threat have increased from 9.3–19.8% throughout the period. Effective mitigating measures such as increasing green surfaces and planned urbanization practices are crucial in this regard. This study would help policymakers to concentrate on controlling thermal exposure and on preserving sustainable urban life.

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Impact of Multitemporal Land Use and Land Cover Change on Land Surface Temperature Due to Urbanization in Hefei City, China

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi10120809 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 809

Author(s):

Jing Sun ◽

Suwit Ongsomwang

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Land Surface Temperature ◽

Land Surface ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Decomposition Analysis ◽

Lulc Change ◽

Main Components ◽

The Impact

Land surface temperature (LST) is an essential parameter in the climate system whose dynamics indicate climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of multitemporal land use and land cover (LULC) change on LST due to urbanization in Hefei City, Anhui Province, China. The research methodology consisted of four main components: Landsat data collection and preparation; multitemporal LULC classification; time-series LST dataset reconstruction; and impact of multitemporal LULC change on LST. The results revealed that urban and built-up land continuously increased from 2.05% in 2001 to 13.25% in 2020. Regarding the impact of LULC change on LST, the spatial analysis demonstrated that the LST difference between urban and non-urban areas had been 1.52 K, 3.38 K, 2.88 K and 3.57 K in 2001, 2006, 2014 and 2020, respectively. Meanwhile, according to decomposition analysis, regarding the influence of LULC change on LST, the urban and built-up land had an intra-annual amplitude of 20.42 K higher than other types. Thus, it can be reconfirmed that land use and land cover changes due to urbanization in Hefei City impact the land surface temperature.

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Physical factors of influence in the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture driving the spatio-temporal evolution of drought patterns in the Ebro Basin (NE Spain).

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2377 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jaime Gaona ◽

Pere Quintana-Seguí ◽

Maria José Escorihuela

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Cover ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Land Surface ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Surface Model ◽

Physical Factors ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Impact

Droughts in the Iberian Peninsula are a natural hazard of great relevance due to their recurrence, severity and impact on multiple environmental and socioeconomic aspects. The Ebro Basin, located in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula, is particularly vulnerable to drought with consequences on agriculture, urban water supply and hydropower. This study, performed within the Project HUMID (CGL2017-85687-R), aims at evaluating the influence of the climatic, land cover and soil characteristics on the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture anomalies which define the spatio-temporal drought patterns in the basin.The onset, propagation and mitigation of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula is driven by anomalies of rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, which are related by feedback processes. To test the relative importance of such anomalies, we evaluate the contribution of climatic, land-cover and geologic heterogeneity on the definition of the spatio-temporal patterns of drought. We use the K&#246;ppen-Geiger climatic classification to assess how the contrasting climatic types within the basin determine differences on drought behavior. Land-cover types that govern the partition between evaporation and transpiration are also of great interest to discern the influence of vegetation and crop types on the anomalies of evapotranspiration across the distinct regions of the basin (e.g. forested mountains vs. crop-dominated areas). The third physical characteristic whose effect on drought we investigate is the impact of soil properties on soil moisture anomalies.The maps and time series used for the spatio-temporal analysis are based on drought indices calculated with high-resolution datasets from remote sensing (MOD16A2ET and SMOS1km) and the land-surface model SURFEX-ISBA. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the EvapoTranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) and the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) are the three indices chosen to characterize the anomalies of the corresponding rainfall (atmospheric), evapotranspiration (atmosphere-land interface) and soil moisture (land) anomalies (components of the water balance). The comparison of the correlations of the indices (with different time lags) between contrasting regions offers insights about the impact of climate, land-cover and soil properties in the dominance, the timing of the response and memory aspects of the interactions. The high spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing and land-surface model data allows adopting time and spatial scales suitable to investigate the influence of these physical factors with detail beyond comparison with ground-based datasets.The spatial and temporal analysis prove useful to investigate the physical factors of influence on the anomalies between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This approach facilitates the physical interpretation of the anomalies of drought indices aiming to improve the characterization of drought in heterogeneous semi-arid areas like the Ebro River Basin.

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Effect of Drought on Outbreaks of Major Forest Pests, Pine Caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.), in Shandong Province, China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10030264 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 264 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Yongbin Bao ◽

Fei Wang ◽

Siqin Tong ◽

Li Na ◽

Aru Han ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Positive Impact ◽

Shandong Province ◽

Forest Damage ◽

Decadal Scale ◽

Effects Of Drought ◽

Forestry Production ◽

Ecological Reconstruction ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

As the main defoliators of coniferous forests in Shandong Province, China, pine caterpillars (including Dendrolimus suffuscus suffuscus Lajonquiere, D. spectabilis Butler, and D. tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu) have caused substantial forest damage, adverse economic impacts, and losses of ecosystem resources. Therefore, elucidating the effects of drought on the outbreak of these pests is important for promoting forestry production and ecological reconstruction. Accordingly, the aim of the present study was to analyse the spatiotemporal variation of drought in Shandong Province, using the Standard Precipitation Index, and to investigate the impact of drought on the outbreak of pine caterpillar infestations. Future trends in drought and pine caterpillar populations were then estimated using the Hurst exponent. The results showed that: (1) Drought decreased gradually and showed a wetting trend from 1981 to 2012, with frequency decreasing on a decadal scale as follows: 1980s > 1990s > 2000s > 2010s; (2) The total area of pine caterpillar occurrence decreased strongly from 1992 to 2012; (3) Long-term or prolonged drought had a greater positive impact on pine caterpillar outbreak than short-term drought; (4) In the future, a greater portion of the province’s area will experience increased wetting conditions (57%) than increased drought (43%), and the area of pine caterpillar outbreak is estimated to decrease overall. These findings help elucidate the relationship between drought and pine caterpillar outbreak in Shandong Province and, hence, provide a basis for developing preventive measures and plans.

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Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID-19 mitigation strategies based on Swiss data

European Psychiatry ◽

10.1192/j.eurpsy.2020.56 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 63 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Dominik A. Moser ◽

Jennifer Glaus ◽

Sophia Frangou ◽

Daniel S. Schechter

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Significant Risk ◽

Social Contact ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Psychosocial Consequence ◽

Psychosocial Consequences ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background. The pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has forced governments to implement strict social mitigation strategies to reduce the morbidity and mortality from acute infections. These strategies, however, carry a significant risk for mental health, which can lead to increased short-term and long-term mortality and is currently not included in modeling the impact of the pandemic. Methods. We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure, applied to Switzerland as an example. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status, and social isolation, as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans. Results. The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average of 9.79 YLL. Conclusions. The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.

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Representation of fire, land-use change and vegetation dynamics in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn4.9 (JULES)

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 179-193 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Chantelle Burton ◽

Richard Betts ◽

Manoel Cardoso ◽

Ted R. Feldpausch ◽

Anna Harper ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Cover ◽

Vegetation Cover ◽

Land Surface ◽

Vegetation Dynamics ◽

Fire Disturbance ◽

Substantial Contribution ◽

Surface Model ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Disturbance of vegetation is a critical component of land cover, but is generally poorly constrained in land surface and carbon cycle models. In particular, land-use change and fire can be treated as large-scale disturbances without full representation of their underlying complexities and interactions. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) to represent land-use change and fire as distinct processes which interact with simulated vegetation dynamics. We couple the fire model INFERNO (INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) to dynamic vegetation within JULES and use the HYDE (History Database of the Global Environment) land cover dataset to analyse the impact of land-use change on the simulation of present day vegetation. We evaluate the inclusion of land use and fire disturbance against standard benchmarks. Using the Manhattan metric, results show improved simulation of vegetation cover across all observed datasets. Overall, disturbance improves the simulation of vegetation cover by 35 % compared to vegetation continuous field (VCF) observations from MODIS and 13 % compared to the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) from the ESA. Biases in grass extent are reduced from −66 % to 13 %. Total woody cover improves by 55 % compared to VCF and 20 % compared to CCI from a reduction in forest extent in the tropics, although simulated tree cover is now too sparse in some areas. Explicitly modelling fire and land use generally decreases tree and shrub cover and increases grasses. The results show that the disturbances provide important contributions to the realistic modelling of vegetation on a global scale, although in some areas fire and land use together result in too much disturbance. This work provides a substantial contribution towards representing the full complexity and interactions between land-use change and fire that could be used in Earth system models.

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