scholarly journals Assimilation of satellite data to optimize large-scale hydrological model parameters: a case study for the SWOT mission

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 4485-4507 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Pedinotti ◽  
A. Boone ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
S. Biancamaria ◽  
N. Mognard
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Extended Kalman Filter ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment

Abstract. During the last few decades, satellite measurements have been widely used to study the continental water cycle, especially in regions where in situ measurements are not readily available. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will deliver maps of water surface elevation (WSE) with an unprecedented resolution and provide observation of rivers wider than 100 m and water surface areas greater than approximately 250 x 250 m over continental surfaces between 78° S and 78° N. This study aims to investigate the potential of SWOT data for parameter optimization for large-scale river routing models. The method consists in applying a data assimilation approach, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm, to correct the Manning roughness coefficients of the ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere)-TRIP (Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) continental hydrologic system. Parameters such as the Manning coefficient, used within such models to describe water basin characteristics, are generally derived from geomorphological relationships, which leads to significant errors at reach and large scales. The current study focuses on the Niger Basin, a transboundary river. Since the SWOT observations are not available yet and also to assess the proposed assimilation method, the study is carried out under the framework of an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). It is assumed that modeling errors are only due to uncertainties in the Manning coefficient. The true Manning coefficients are then supposed to be known and are used to generate synthetic SWOT observations over the period 2002–2003. The impact of the assimilation system on the Niger Basin hydrological cycle is then quantified. The optimization of the Manning coefficient using the EKF (extended Kalman filter) algorithm over an 18-month period led to a significant improvement of the river water levels. The relative bias of the water level is globally improved (a 30% reduction). The relative bias of the Manning coefficient is also reduced (40% reduction) and it converges towards an optimal value. Discharge is also improved by the assimilation, but to a lesser extent than for the water levels (7%). Moreover, the method allows for a better simulation of the occurrence and intensity of flood events in the inner delta and shows skill in simulating the maxima and minima of water storage anomalies, especially in the groundwater and the aquifer reservoirs. The application of the assimilation method in the framework of an observing system simulation experiment allows evaluating the skill of the EKF algorithm to improve hydrological model parameters and to demonstrate SWOT's promising potential for global hydrology issues. However, further studies (e.g., considering multiple error sources and the difference between synthetic and real observations) are needed to achieve the evaluation of the method.

scholarly journals Estimating surface carbon fluxes based on a local ensemble transform Kalman filter with a short assimilation window and a long observation window: an observing system simulation experiment test in GEOS-Chem 10.1

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2899-2914
Author(s):  
Yun Liu ◽  
Eugenia Kalnay ◽  
Ning Zeng ◽  
Ghassem Asrar ◽  
Zhaohui Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Observation Window ◽  
Surface Carbon ◽  
Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
Ensemble Transform ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. We developed a carbon data assimilation system to estimate surface carbon fluxes using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) and atmospheric transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the MERRA-1 reanalysis of the meteorological field based on the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5). This assimilation system is inspired by the method of Kang et al. (2011, 2012), who estimated the surface carbon fluxes in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) as evolving parameters in the assimilation of the atmospheric CO2, using a short assimilation window of 6 h. They included the assimilation of the standard meteorological variables, so that the ensemble provided a measure of the uncertainty in the CO2 transport. After introducing new techniques such as “variable localization”, and increased observation weights near the surface, they obtained accurate surface carbon fluxes at grid-point resolution. We developed a new version of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter related to the “running-in-place” (RIP) method used to accelerate the spin-up of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (Kalnay and Yang, 2010; Wang et al., 2013; Yang et al., 2012). Like RIP, the new assimilation system uses the “no cost smoothing” algorithm for the LETKF (Kalnay et al., 2007b), which allows shifting the Kalman filter solution forward or backward within an assimilation window at no cost. In the new scheme a long “observation window” (e.g., 7 d or longer) is used to create a LETKF ensemble at 7 d. Then, the RIP smoother is used to obtain an accurate final analysis at 1 d. This new approach has the advantage of being based on a short assimilation window, which makes it more accurate, and of having been exposed to the future 7 d observations, which improves the analysis and accelerates the spin-up. The assimilation and observation windows are then shifted forward by 1 d, and the process is repeated. This reduces significantly the analysis error, suggesting that the newly developed assimilation method can be used with other Earth system models, especially in order to make greater use of observations in conjunction with models.

scholarly journals Improved Calibration Method for Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models: Constrained Extended Kalman Filter

2017 ◽  
Vol 2667 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haizheng Zhang ◽  
Ravi Seshadri ◽  
A. Arun Prakash ◽  
Francisco C. Pereira ◽  
Constantinos Antoniou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Extended Kalman Filter ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Traffic Assignment ◽  
Dynamic Traffic Assignment ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Descent Method ◽  
Coordinate Descent ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Dynamic Traffic

The calibration of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models involves the estimation of model parameters to best replicate real-world measurements. Good calibration is essential to estimate and predict accurately traffic states, which are crucial for traffic management applications to alleviate congestion. A widely used approach to calibrate simulation-based DTA models is the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The EKF assumes that the DTA model parameters are unconstrained, although they are in fact constrained; for instance, origin–destination (O-D) flows are nonnegative. This assumption is typically not problematic for small- and medium-scale networks in which the EKF has been successfully applied. However, in large-scale networks (which typically contain numbers of O-D pairs with small magnitudes of flow), the estimates may severely violate constraints. In consequence, simply truncating the infeasible estimates may result in the divergence of EKF, leading to extremely poor state estimations and predictions. To address this issue, a constrained EKF (CEKF) approach is presented; it imposes constraints on the posterior distribution of the state estimators to obtain the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates that are feasible. The MAP estimates are obtained with a heuristic followed by the coordinate descent method. The procedure determines the optimum and are computationally faster by 31.5% over coordinate descent and by 94.9% over the interior point method. Experiments on the Singapore expressway network indicated that the CEKF significantly improved model accuracy and outperformed the traditional EKF (up to 78.17%) and generalized least squares (up to 17.13%) approaches in state estimation and prediction.

scholarly journals Assimilation of satellite data to optimize large scale hydrological model parameters: a case study for the SWOT mission

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 4477-4530
Author(s):  
V. Pedinotti ◽  
A. Boone ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
S. Biancamaria ◽  
N. Mognard
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Relative Bias ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Hydrological Data ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. During the last few decades, satellite measurements have been widely used to study the continental water cycle, especially in regions where in situ measurements are not readily available. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will deliver maps of water surface elevation (WSE) with an unprecedented resolution and provide observation of rivers wider than 100 m and water surface areas greater than approximately 250 m × 250 m over continental surfaces between 78° S and 78° N. This study aims to investigate the potential of SWOT data for parameter optimization for large scale river routing models which are typically employed in Land Surface Models (LSM) for global scale applications. The method consists in applying a data assimilation approach, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm, to correct the Manning roughness coefficients of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrologic System. Indeed, parameters such as the Manning coefficient, used within such models to describe water basin characteristics, are generally derived from geomorphological relationships, which might have locally significant errors. The current study focuses on the Niger basin, a trans-boundary river, which is the main source of fresh water for all the riparian countries. In addition, geopolitical issues in this region can restrict the exchange of hydrological data, so that SWOT should help improve this situation by making hydrological data freely available. In a previous study, the model was first evaluated against in-situ and satellite derived data sets within the framework of the international African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Since the SWOT observations are not available yet and also to assess the proposed assimilation method, the study is carried out under the framework of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). It is assumed that modeling errors are only due to uncertainties in the Manning coefficient. The true Manning coefficients are then supposed to be known and are used to generate synthetic SWOT observations over the period 2002–2003. The impact of the assimilation system on the Niger basin hydrological cycle is then quantified. The optimization of the Manning coefficient using the EKF algorithm over an 18 month period leads to a significant improvement of the river water levels. The relative bias of the water level is globally improved (a 30% reduction). The relative bias of the Manning coefficient is also reduced (40% reduction) and it converges towards an optimal value despite potential problems related to equifinality. Discharge is also improved by the assimilation, but to a lesser extent than for the water levels (7%). Moreover, the method allows a better prediction of the occurrence and intensity of flood events in the inner delta and shows skill in simulating the maxima and minima of water storage anomalies in several continental reservoirs, especially the groundwater and the aquifer reservoirs. Results obtained in this preliminary study demonstrate SWOT potential for global hydrologic modeling, especially to improve model parameters.

scholarly journals A Fuzzy State-of-Charge Estimation Algorithm Combining Ampere-Hour and an Extended Kalman Filter for Li-Ion Batteries Based on Multi-Model Global Identification

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 2028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Lai ◽  
Dongdong Qiao ◽  
Yuejiu Zheng ◽  
Long Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Extended Kalman Filter ◽  
Estimation Algorithm ◽  
State Of Charge ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Accuracy ◽  
Soc Estimation ◽  
Fuzzy Fusion ◽  
Fuzzy State

The popular and widely reported lithium-ion battery model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). The suitable ECM structure and matched model parameters are equally important for the state-of-charge (SOC) estimation algorithm. This paper focuses on high-accuracy models and the estimation algorithm with high robustness and accuracy in practical application. Firstly, five ECMs and five parameter identification approaches are compared under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) working condition in the whole SOC area, and the most appropriate model structure and its parameters are determined to improve model accuracy. Based on this, a multi-model and multi-algorithm (MM-MA) method, considering the SOC distribution area, is proposed. The experimental results show that this method can effectively improve the model accuracy. Secondly, a fuzzy fusion SOC estimation algorithm, based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and ampere-hour counting (AH) method, is proposed. The fuzzy fusion algorithm takes advantage of the advantages of EKF, and AH avoids the weaknesses. Six case studies show that the SOC estimation result can hold the satisfactory accuracy even when large sensor and model errors exist.

scholarly journals An All-Region State-of-Charge Estimator Based on Global Particle Swarm Optimization and Improved Extended Kalman Filter for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Electronics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Lai ◽  
Wei Yi ◽  
Yuejiu Zheng ◽  
Long Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Lithium Ion Batteries ◽  
Extended Kalman Filter ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
State Of Charge ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Soc Estimation

In this paper, a novel model parameter identification method and a state-of-charge (SOC) estimator for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are proposed to improve the global accuracy of SOC estimation in the all SOC range (0–100%). Firstly, a subregion optimization method based on particle swarm optimization is developed to find the optimal model parameters of LIBs in each subregion, and the optimal number of subregions is investigated from the perspective of accuracy and computation time. Then, to solve the problem of a low accuracy of SOC estimation caused by large model error in the low SOC range, an improved extended Kalman filter (IEKF) algorithm with variable noise covariance is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed methods are verified by experiments on two kinds of batteries under three working cycles, and case studies show that the proposed IEKF has better accuracy and robustness than the traditional extended Kalman filter (EKF) in the all SOC range.

scholarly journals Monitoring the Northern Current in the Gulf of Lions with an observing system simulation experiment

2012 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 441-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélie Duchez ◽  
Jacques Verron ◽  
Jean-Michel Brankart ◽  
Yann Ourmières ◽  
Philippe Fraunié
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Gulf Of Lions ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
Northern Current

Quantifying Snow Mass Mission Concept Trade-Offs Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Garnaud ◽  
Stéphane Bélair ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
Bernard Bilodeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Wet Snow ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Snow Mass

Abstract Because of its location, Canada is particularly affected by snow processes and their impact on the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Yet, snow mass observations that are ongoing, global, frequent (1–5 days), and at high enough spatial resolution (kilometer scale) for assimilation within operational prediction systems are presently not available. Recently, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) partnered with the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) to initiate a radar-focused snow mission concept study to define spaceborne technological solutions to this observational gap. In this context, an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was performed to determine the impact of sensor configuration, snow water equivalent (SWE) retrieval performance, and snow wet/dry state on snow analyses from the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). The synthetic experiment shows that snow analyses are strongly sensitive to revisit frequency since more frequent assimilation leads to a more constrained land surface model. The greatest reduction in spatial (temporal) bias is from a 1-day revisit frequency with a 91% (93%) improvement. Temporal standard deviation of the error (STDE) is mostly reduced by a greater retrieval accuracy with a 65% improvement, while a 1-day revisit reduces the temporal STDE by 66%. The inability to detect SWE under wet snow conditions is particularly impactful during the spring meltdown, with an increase in spatial RMSE of up to 50 mm. Wet snow does not affect the domain-wide annual maximum SWE nor the timing of end-of-season snowmelt timing in this case, indicating that radar measurements, although uncertain during melting events, are very useful in adding skill to snow analyses.

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