Assimilation of satellite data to optimize large scale hydrological model parameters: a case study for the SWOT mission

Abstract. During the last few decades, satellite measurements have been widely used to study the continental water cycle, especially in regions where in situ measurements are not readily available. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will deliver maps of water surface elevation (WSE) with an unprecedented resolution and provide observation of rivers wider than 100 m and water surface areas greater than approximately 250 m × 250 m over continental surfaces between 78° S and 78° N. This study aims to investigate the potential of SWOT data for parameter optimization for large scale river routing models which are typically employed in Land Surface Models (LSM) for global scale applications. The method consists in applying a data assimilation approach, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm, to correct the Manning roughness coefficients of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrologic System. Indeed, parameters such as the Manning coefficient, used within such models to describe water basin characteristics, are generally derived from geomorphological relationships, which might have locally significant errors. The current study focuses on the Niger basin, a trans-boundary river, which is the main source of fresh water for all the riparian countries. In addition, geopolitical issues in this region can restrict the exchange of hydrological data, so that SWOT should help improve this situation by making hydrological data freely available. In a previous study, the model was first evaluated against in-situ and satellite derived data sets within the framework of the international African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Since the SWOT observations are not available yet and also to assess the proposed assimilation method, the study is carried out under the framework of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). It is assumed that modeling errors are only due to uncertainties in the Manning coefficient. The true Manning coefficients are then supposed to be known and are used to generate synthetic SWOT observations over the period 2002–2003. The impact of the assimilation system on the Niger basin hydrological cycle is then quantified. The optimization of the Manning coefficient using the EKF algorithm over an 18 month period leads to a significant improvement of the river water levels. The relative bias of the water level is globally improved (a 30% reduction). The relative bias of the Manning coefficient is also reduced (40% reduction) and it converges towards an optimal value despite potential problems related to equifinality. Discharge is also improved by the assimilation, but to a lesser extent than for the water levels (7%). Moreover, the method allows a better prediction of the occurrence and intensity of flood events in the inner delta and shows skill in simulating the maxima and minima of water storage anomalies in several continental reservoirs, especially the groundwater and the aquifer reservoirs. Results obtained in this preliminary study demonstrate SWOT potential for global hydrologic modeling, especially to improve model parameters.

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"Blueprint" for the UP Modelling System for Large Scale Hydrology

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-1-55-1997 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 55-69 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

J. Ewen

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Sufficient Information ◽

Forecasting Models ◽

Wide Range ◽

Physically Based ◽

Up Elements ◽

The Impact

Abstract. There are at least two needs to be met by the current research efforts on large scale hydrological modelling. The first is for practical conceptual land-surface hydrology schemes for use with existing operational climate and weather forecasting models, to replace the overly simple schemes often used in such models. The second is for models of large scale hydrology which are properly sensitive to changes in physical properties and inputs measured (or predicted) over a wide range of scales, from the point-scale upwards, yet are simple enough in structure to be coupled to climate and weather forecasting models. Such models of large scale hydrology are needed for studying the environmental impact of pollution and changes in climate and land-use, especially the impact On water resources. The UP system (name derived from Upsealed Physically-based) is an attempt to satisfy the second need. It uses a physically-based approach and has a simple structure, yet incorporates sufficient information on sub-grid behaviour to make it a useful tool for the study of environmental impacts over a wide range of scales. The system uses a new approach to large scale modelling, giving physically-based predictions of hourly flows, storages, saturated areas, etc., for regions covering hundreds of thousands of square kilometres. The basic component of the system is the UP element. This has seven water storage compartments (one each for the snowpack, vegetation canopy, surface water, root zone, unsaturated percolation, interflow and groundwater) and allows all the main processes of the terrestrial phase of the hydrological cycle to be represented. A region is modelled as a collection of UP elements, linked by a river routing scheme. Each compartment represents a fixed zone within the area covered by the UP element, and each is related to a physical process such as groundwater flow. Most of the parameterizations for the compartments are in the form of look-up tables, linking the outputs from the compartments to state variables such as the current storage in the compartment. These parameterizations are, in the main, derived from results from physically-based, distributed models applied to the zones (e.g. a groundwater compartment is parameterized using a groundwater model). For large regions modelled using many UP elements, the UP parameters are regionalized using a classification scheme, thus reducing the overall effort spent in parameterization. The development of the UP system is a long-term project involving research into physically-based parameterization of large scale hydrology models, including the effects of sub-grid spatial variations. The first stage involved developing a "blueprint" for the UP element, based on experience with physically-based, distributed river basin modelling and reviews of existing techniques and modelling approaches for large scale and linked atmosphere-hydrology modelling. This paper describes the UP element and the concepts and ideas behind the development of the UP system and, briefly, describes some of the research and development work currently in progress on UP and its parameterization.

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Assimilation of satellite data to optimize large-scale hydrological model parameters: a case study for the SWOT mission

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-18-4485-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 18 (11) ◽

pp. 4485-4507 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

V. Pedinotti ◽

A. Boone ◽

S. Ricci ◽

S. Biancamaria ◽

N. Mognard

Keyword(s):

Kalman Filter ◽

Extended Kalman Filter ◽

Water Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Simulation Experiment ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

System Simulation ◽

Water Levels ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Observing System Simulation Experiment

Abstract. During the last few decades, satellite measurements have been widely used to study the continental water cycle, especially in regions where in situ measurements are not readily available. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will deliver maps of water surface elevation (WSE) with an unprecedented resolution and provide observation of rivers wider than 100 m and water surface areas greater than approximately 250 x 250 m over continental surfaces between 78° S and 78° N. This study aims to investigate the potential of SWOT data for parameter optimization for large-scale river routing models. The method consists in applying a data assimilation approach, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm, to correct the Manning roughness coefficients of the ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere)-TRIP (Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) continental hydrologic system. Parameters such as the Manning coefficient, used within such models to describe water basin characteristics, are generally derived from geomorphological relationships, which leads to significant errors at reach and large scales. The current study focuses on the Niger Basin, a transboundary river. Since the SWOT observations are not available yet and also to assess the proposed assimilation method, the study is carried out under the framework of an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). It is assumed that modeling errors are only due to uncertainties in the Manning coefficient. The true Manning coefficients are then supposed to be known and are used to generate synthetic SWOT observations over the period 2002–2003. The impact of the assimilation system on the Niger Basin hydrological cycle is then quantified. The optimization of the Manning coefficient using the EKF (extended Kalman filter) algorithm over an 18-month period led to a significant improvement of the river water levels. The relative bias of the water level is globally improved (a 30% reduction). The relative bias of the Manning coefficient is also reduced (40% reduction) and it converges towards an optimal value. Discharge is also improved by the assimilation, but to a lesser extent than for the water levels (7%). Moreover, the method allows for a better simulation of the occurrence and intensity of flood events in the inner delta and shows skill in simulating the maxima and minima of water storage anomalies, especially in the groundwater and the aquifer reservoirs. The application of the assimilation method in the framework of an observing system simulation experiment allows evaluating the skill of the EKF algorithm to improve hydrological model parameters and to demonstrate SWOT's promising potential for global hydrology issues. However, further studies (e.g., considering multiple error sources and the difference between synthetic and real observations) are needed to achieve the evaluation of the method.

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The Role of El Niño in Modulating the Effects of Deforestation in the Maritime Continent

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7085 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tinghui lee ◽

Minhui lo

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Critical Role ◽

Atmospheric Environment ◽

Maritime Continent ◽

Deforestation Rate ◽

Surface Warming ◽

The Impact

<p>The deforestation rate in the Maritime Continent (MC) has been accelerating during the past several decades. Understanding the changes in local hydro-climatological cycles as deforestation takes place is essential because the MC is suffering from frequent and extreme droughts and fires, which often occur during the dry season and are more severe during El Ni&#241;os. Therefore, this study explores how deforestation affects the hydrological cycle and precipitation in the MC during El Ni&#241;os, focusing on the boreal autumn season and using the coupled atmosphere-land model simulations. It is found that the precipitation over the MC increases in the deforestation experiments, and the precipitation responses can be magnified during El Ni&#241;o events. A strong subsidence anomaly associated with El Ni&#241;o does not prevent enhanced convection associated with local deforestation. Instead, the subsidence reduces the cloud cover in the MC region during El Ni&#241;o, which increases the incoming solar radiation and increases surface temperatures. Under a warmer environment induced by El Ni&#241;o, the nonlinear biogeophysical feedbacks associated with deforestation also play a critical role in more substantial land surface warming. A warmer land surface induces a more unstable atmospheric environment associated with a tendency toward enhanced local convection and lateral moisture convergence. This study highlights how the different mean climate states may modulate the impact of local land-use changes on hydroclimatological cycles in the Maritime Continent, and sheds light on the state of our knowledge of interactions between the local land surface and remote large-scale atmospheric circulations.</p>

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Reservoir-Induced Land Deformation: Case Study from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13050874 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 874

Author(s):

Yu Chen ◽

Mohamed Ahmed ◽

Natthachet Tangdamrongsub ◽

Dorina Murgulet

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Surface Deformation ◽

Vertical Displacement ◽

Nile River ◽

Reservoir Volume ◽

Novel Approach ◽

Land Deformation ◽

Large Scale Land ◽

The Impact

The Nile River stretches from south to north throughout the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Northeast Africa. Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile originates, has begun the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will be used to generate electricity. However, the impact of the GERD on land deformation caused by significant water relocation has not been rigorously considered in the scientific research. In this study, we develop a novel approach for predicting large-scale land deformation induced by the construction of the GERD reservoir. We also investigate the limitations of using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE-FO) mission to detect GERD-induced land deformation. We simulated three land deformation scenarios related to filling the expected reservoir volume, 70 km3, using 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios. The results indicated: (i) trends in downward vertical displacement estimated at −17.79 ± 0.02, −8.90 ± 0.09, and −5.94 ± 0.05 mm/year, for the 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios, respectively; (ii) the western (eastern) parts of the GERD reservoir are estimated to move toward the reservoir’s center by +0.98 ± 0.01 (−0.98 ± 0.01), +0.48 ± 0.00 (−0.48 ± 0.00), and +0.33 ± 0.00 (−0.33 ± 0.00) mm/year, under the 5-, 10- and 15-year filling strategies, respectively; (iii) the northern part of the GERD reservoir is moving southward by +1.28 ± 0.02, +0.64 ± 0.01, and +0.43 ± 0.00 mm/year, while the southern part is moving northward by −3.75 ± 0.04, −1.87 ± 0.02, and −1.25 ± 0.01 mm/year, during the three examined scenarios, respectively; and (iv) the GRACE-FO mission can only detect 15% of the large-scale land deformation produced by the GERD reservoir. Methods and results demonstrated in this study provide insights into possible impacts of reservoir impoundment on land surface deformation, which can be adopted into the GERD project or similar future dam construction plans.

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In-Situ Measurement of Power Loss for Crystalline Silicon Modules Undergoing Thermal Cycling and Mechanical Loading Stress Testing

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14010072 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 72

Author(s):

Sergiu Spataru ◽

Peter Hacke ◽

Dezso Sera

Keyword(s):

Thermal Cycling ◽

Power Loss ◽

Stress Testing ◽

Series Resistance ◽

Short Circuit ◽

In Situ Measurement ◽

Mechanical Degradation ◽

Model Parameters ◽

The Impact

An in-situ method is proposed for monitoring and estimating the power degradation of mc-Si photovoltaic (PV) modules undergoing thermo-mechanical degradation tests that primarily manifest through cell cracking, such as mechanical load tests, thermal cycling and humidity freeze tests. The method is based on in-situ measurement of the module’s dark current-voltage (I-V) characteristic curve during the stress test, as well as initial and final module flash testing on a Sun simulator. The method uses superposition of the dark I-V curve with final flash test module short-circuit current to account for shunt and junction recombination losses, as well as series resistance estimation from the in-situ measured dark I-Vs and final flash test measurements. The method is developed based on mc-Si standard modules undergoing several stages of thermo-mechanical stress testing and degradation, for which we investigate the impact of the degradation on the modules light I-V curve parameters, and equivalent solar cell model parameters. Experimental validation of the method on the modules tested shows good agreement between the in-situ estimated power degradation and the flash test measured power loss of the modules, of up to 4.31 % error (RMSE), as the modules experience primarily junction defect recombination and increased series resistance losses. However, the application of the method will be limited for modules experiencing extensive photo-current degradation or delamination, which are not well reflected in the dark I-V characteristic of the PV module.

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Coupled Thermo-Hydro-Geochemical Models of Engineered Barrier Systems: The Febex Project

MRS Proceedings ◽

10.1557/proc-663-561 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 663 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

J. Samper ◽

R. Juncosa ◽

V. Navarro ◽

J. Delgado ◽

L. Montenegro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Reference Model ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Full Scale ◽

Small Scale ◽

Model Parameters ◽

In Situ Test ◽

Wide Range ◽

Engineered Barrier

ABSTRACTFEBEX (Full-scale Engineered Barrier EXperiment) is a demonstration and research project dealing with the bentonite engineered barrier designed for sealing and containment of waste in a high level radioactive waste repository (HLWR). It includes two main experiments: an situ full-scale test performed at Grimsel (GTS) and a mock-up test operating since February 1997 at CIEMAT facilities in Madrid (Spain) [1,2,3]. One of the objectives of FEBEX is the development and testing of conceptual and numerical models for the thermal, hydrodynamic, and geochemical (THG) processes expected to take place in engineered clay barriers. A significant improvement in coupled THG modeling of the clay barrier has been achieved both in terms of a better understanding of THG processes and more sophisticated THG computer codes. The ability of these models to reproduce the observed THG patterns in a wide range of THG conditions enhances the confidence in their prediction capabilities. Numerical THG models of heating and hydration experiments performed on small-scale lab cells provide excellent results for temperatures, water inflow and final water content in the cells [3]. Calculated concentrations at the end of the experiments reproduce most of the patterns of measured data. In general, the fit of concentrations of dissolved species is better than that of exchanged cations. These models were later used to simulate the evolution of the large-scale experiments (in situ and mock-up). Some thermo-hydrodynamic hypotheses and bentonite parameters were slightly revised during TH calibration of the mock-up test. The results of the reference model reproduce simultaneously the observed water inflows and bentonite temperatures and relative humidities. Although the model is highly sensitive to one-at-a-time variations in model parameters, the possibility of parameter combinations leading to similar fits cannot be precluded. The TH model of the “in situ” test is based on the same bentonite TH parameters and assumptions as for the “mock-up” test. Granite parameters were slightly modified during the calibration process in order to reproduce the observed thermal and hydrodynamic evolution. The reference model captures properly relative humidities and temperatures in the bentonite [3]. It also reproduces the observed spatial distribution of water pressures and temperatures in the granite. Once calibrated the TH aspects of the model, predictions of the THG evolution of both tests were performed. Data from the dismantling of the in situ test, which is planned for the summer of 2001, will provide a unique opportunity to test and validate current THG models of the EBS.

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Continuous high-resolution midlatitude-belt simulations for July–August 2013 with WRF

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-10-2031-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 2031-2055 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Thomas Schwitalla ◽

Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽

Volker Wulfmeyer ◽

Kirsten Warrach-Sagi

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Temperature Fields ◽

Surface Model ◽

Limited Area ◽

Data Set ◽

Latitude Belt ◽

Simulated Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Increasing computational resources and the demands of impact modelers, stake holders, and society envision seasonal and climate simulations with the convection-permitting resolution. So far such a resolution is only achieved with a limited-area model whose results are impacted by zonal and meridional boundaries. Here, we present the setup of a latitude-belt domain that reduces disturbances originating from the western and eastern boundaries and therefore allows for studying the impact of model resolution and physical parameterization. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land–surface model was operated during July and August 2013 at two different horizontal resolutions, namely 0.03 (HIRES) and 0.12° (LOWRES). Both simulations were forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis data at the northern and southern domain boundaries, and the high-resolution Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data at the sea surface.The simulations are compared to the operational ECMWF analysis for the representation of large-scale features. To analyze the simulated precipitation, the operational ECMWF forecast, the CPC MORPHing (CMORPH), and the ENSEMBLES gridded observation precipitation data set (E-OBS) were used as references.Analyzing pressure, geopotential height, wind, and temperature fields as well as precipitation revealed (1) a benefit from the higher resolution concerning the reduction of monthly biases, root mean square error, and an improved Pearson skill score, and (2) deficiencies in the physical parameterizations leading to notable biases in distinct regions like the polar Atlantic for the LOWRES simulation, the North Pacific, and Inner Mongolia for both resolutions.In summary, the application of a latitude belt on a convection-permitting resolution shows promising results that are beneficial for future seasonal forecasting.

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The Impact of Error Accounting in a Bayesian Approach to Calibrating Modeled Turbulent Fluxes in an Open-Canopy Forest

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-17-0030.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (7) ◽

pp. 2029-2042

Author(s):

Tony E. Wong ◽

William Kleiber ◽

David C. Noone

Keyword(s):

Markov Chain ◽

Land Surface ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Soil Layer ◽

Turbulent Fluxes ◽

Surface Model ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Top Soil ◽

The Impact ◽

Calibration Approach

Abstract Land surface models are notorious for containing many parameters that control the exchange of heat and moisture between land and atmosphere. Properly modeling the partitioning of total evapotranspiration (ET) between transpiration and evaporation is critical for accurate hydrological modeling, but depends heavily on the treatment of turbulence within and above canopies. Previous work has constrained estimates of evapotranspiration and its partitioning using statistical approaches that calibrate land surface model parameters by assimilating in situ measurements. These studies, however, are silent on the impacts of the accounting of uncertainty within the statistical calibration framework. The present study calibrates the aerodynamic, leaf boundary layer, and stomatal resistance parameters, which partially control canopy turbulent exchange and thus the evapotranspiration flux partitioning. Using an adaptive Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to construct a Markov chain of draws from the joint posterior distribution of these resistance parameters, an ensemble of model realizations is generated, in which latent and sensible heat fluxes and top soil layer temperature are optimized. A set of five calibration experiments demonstrate that model performance is sensitive to the accounting of various sources of uncertainty in the field observations and model output and that it is critical to account for model structural uncertainty. After calibration, the modeled fluxes and top soil layer temperature are largely free from bias, and this calibration approach successfully informs and characterizes uncertainty in these parameters, which is essential for model improvement and development. The key points of this paper are 1) a Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration approach successfully improves modeled turbulent fluxes; 2) ET partitioning estimates hinge on the representation of uncertainties in the model and data; and 3) despite these inherent uncertainties, constrained posterior estimates of ET partitioning emerge.

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Study on Deformation and Damage of Rock Mass Subject to High In Situ Stress by Using a Elastoplastic Damage Model and Considering the Impact of Weak Planes

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.838-841.705 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 838-841 ◽

pp. 705-709

Author(s):

Yun Hao Yang ◽

Ren Kun Wang

Keyword(s):

Rock Mass ◽

Large Scale ◽

Damage Model ◽

Back Analysis ◽

In Situ Stress ◽

Surrounding Rock ◽

High In Situ Stress ◽

Underground Caverns ◽

The Impact

Large scale underground caverns are under construction in high in-situ stress field at Houziyan hydropower station. To investigate deformation and damage of surrounding rock mass, a elastoplastic orthotropic damage model capable of describing induced orthotropic damage and post-peak behavior of hard rock is used, together with a effective approach accounting for the presence of weak planes. Then a displacement based back analysis was conducted by using the measured deformation data from extensometers. The computed displacements are in good agreement with the measured ones at most of measurement points, which confirm the validities of constitutive model and numerical simulation model. The result of simulation shows that damage of surrounding rock mass is mainly dominated by the high in-situ stress rather than the weak planes and heavy damage occur at the cavern shoulders and side walls.

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Spatial variability and its scale dependency of observed and modeled soil moisture over different climate regions

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-1177-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 1177-1188 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

B. Li ◽

M. Rodell

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Warm Season ◽

Scale Dependency ◽

Convex Shape ◽

Spatial Moments ◽

Environmental Controls

Abstract. Past studies on soil moisture spatial variability have been mainly conducted at catchment scales where soil moisture is often sampled over a short time period; as a result, the observed soil moisture often exhibited smaller dynamic ranges, which prevented the complete revelation of soil moisture spatial variability as a function of mean soil moisture. In this study, spatial statistics (mean, spatial variability and skewness) of in situ soil moisture, modeled and satellite-retrieved soil moisture obtained in a warm season (198 days) were examined over three large climate regions in the US. The study found that spatial moments of in situ measurements strongly depend on climates, with distinct mean, spatial variability and skewness observed in each climate zone. In addition, an upward convex shape, which was revealed in several smaller scale studies, was observed for the relationship between spatial variability of in situ soil moisture and its spatial mean when statistics from dry, intermediate, and wet climates were combined. This upward convex shape was vaguely or partially observable in modeled and satellite-retrieved soil moisture estimates due to their smaller dynamic ranges. Despite different environmental controls on large-scale soil moisture spatial variability, the correlation between spatial variability and mean soil moisture remained similar to that observed at small scales, which is attributed to the boundedness of soil moisture. From the smaller support (effective area or volume represented by a measurement or estimate) to larger ones, soil moisture spatial variability decreased in each climate region. The scale dependency of spatial variability all followed the power law, but data with large supports showed stronger scale dependency than those with smaller supports. The scale dependency of soil moisture variability also varied with climates, which may be linked to the scale dependency of precipitation spatial variability. Influences of environmental controls on soil moisture spatial variability at large scales are discussed. The results of this study should be useful for diagnosing large scale soil moisture estimates and for improving the estimation of land surface processes.

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