Progressive water deficits during multi-year droughts in central-south Chile
Abstract. A decade-long (2010–2019) period with precipitation deficits in central-south Chile (30–41º S), the so-called megadrought (MD), has led to larger than expected hydrological response and water deficits, indicating an intensification in drought propagation. We used the CAMELS-CL dataset and simulations from the HBV hydrological model to explore the causes of such intensification. Across 124 basins with varying snow/rainfall regimes, we compared annual rainfall-runoff (R-R) relationships and runoff generation mechanisms before and during the MD, and identified those catchments where drought propagation was intensified. We show that catchments’ hydrological memory -mediated by groundwater flows- is a key control of drought propagation intensity, and that baseflow contribution to runoff is positively correlated with snow accumulation preceding the year affected by a drought. Hence, under persistent drought conditions, snow-dominated catchments progressively generate less water, compared with their historical behaviour, notably affecting the semi-arid regions in central Chile. Finally, we addressed a general question: what is worse, an extreme single year drought or a persistent moderate drought? In semi-arid regions, where water provision strongly depends on both the current and previous precipitation seasons, the worst scenario would be an extreme meteorological drought following consecutive years of precipitation below average. In temperate regions of southern Chile, where catchments have more pluvial regimes, hydrologic memory is still an important factor, but water supply is more strongly dependant on the meteorological conditions of the current year, and therefore an extreme drought would have a higher impact on water supply than a persistent but moderate drought.