Probabilistic assessment of field-scale CO<sub>2</sub> generation by
Carbonate/Clay Reactions in sedimentary basins
Abstract. This work explores the probabilistic assessment of CO2 generation rate and CO2 source location by occurrence of Carbonate/Clay Reactions (CCRs) in three-dimensional realistic sedimentary basins. We ground our assessment on the methodology proposed for a mono-dimensional case study and a single CCR formulation by Ceriotti et al. (2017) which includes a framework to account for thermodynamic parameter uncertainties. This methodology is here extended to a realistic three-dimensional sedimentary basin case study and transferred to encompass different types of CCRs, including two newly formulated CCRs which accounts for minerals typically observed in sedimentary environments. While testing the ability of the chosen procedure to model diverse CCRs in three-dimensional realistic subsurface sedimentary systems, we quantitatively compare the impact of CCR formulation on the spatial distribution of CO2 source location, temperature and pressure compatible to CO2 gaseous generation, and CO2 generation rate in three-dimensional environments characterized by complex and non-uniform stratigraphy. Application of the procedure to different types of CCRs enables us to provide an insight on the impact of mineralogical composition on the mechanism of activation temperature and pressure and the amount of CO2 released by the different CCR mechanisms. Finally, we show the implementation of the proposed probabilistic framework to define scenarios associated with different levels of probability to be used as the input and boundary conditions for CO2 migration and transport models in the subsurface.