scholarly journals Climate impact on floods – changes of high-flows in Sweden for the past and future (1911–2100)

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 7551-7584 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Arheimer ◽  
G. Lindström
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impact ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
The Past ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows

Abstract. There is an on-going discussion whether floods are more frequent nowadays than in the past and whether they will increase in a future climate. To explore this for Sweden we merged observed time-series from 69 sites across the country (450 000 km2) for the past century with high-resolution dynamic scenario modeling of the up-coming century. The results show that the changes of daily annual high flows in Sweden oscillate between decades, but there is no significant trend for the past 100 years. A small tendency for high flows to decrease by 0.3–0.4% per decade in magnitude and 10-year flood frequency was noted, but not statistically significant. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver for river high-flows, as these are mainly related to snow melt in Sweden. Also in the future there will be oscillations between decades, but these were difficult to estimate as climate projections were not in phase with observations. However, in the long term, the daily annual high-flows may decrease by on average 1% per decade, mainly due to lower peaks from snow melt in the spring (–2% per decade) caused by higher temperatures and shorter snow season. On the contrary, autumn flows may increase by 3% per decade due to more intensive rainfall. This indicates a shift in flood generating processes in the future, with more influence of rain generated floods. This should be considered in reference data for design variables when adapting to climate change. Uncertainties related to the study are discussed in the paper, both for observed data and for the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology.

scholarly journals Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100)

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 771-784 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Arheimer ◽  
G. Lindström
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impact ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
The South ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Model Chain

Abstract. There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the country (450 000 km2) with high-resolution dynamic model projections of the upcoming century. The results show that the changes in annual maximum daily flows in Sweden oscillate between dry and wet periods but exhibit no significant trend over the past 100 years. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver of changes in river high flows, which are related primarily to snowmelt in Sweden. Annual daily high flows may decrease by on average −1% per decade in the future, mainly due to lower peaks from snowmelt in the spring (−2% per decade) as a result of higher temperatures and a shorter snow season. In contrast, autumn flows may increase by +3% per decade due to more intense rainfall. This indicates a shift in flood-generating processes in the future, with greater influence of rain-fed floods. Changes in climate may have a more significant impact on some specific rivers than on the average for the whole country. Our results suggest that the temporal pattern in future daily high flow in some catchments will shift in time, with spring floods in the northern–central part of Sweden occurring about 1 month earlier than today. High flows in the southern part of the country may become more frequent. Moreover, the current boundary between snow-driven floods in northern–central Sweden and rain-driven floods in the south may move toward higher latitudes due to less snow accumulation in the south and at low altitudes. The findings also indicate a tendency in observations toward the modeled projections for timing of daily high flows over the last 25 years. Uncertainties related to both the observed data and the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology are discussed.

Catholicism and Cosmopolitanism: the Confluence of Three Catholic Scholars and the Cosmopolitan Democrats on State Sovereignty and the Future of Global Governance

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-51
Author(s):  
Matthew Bagot
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
State Sovereignty ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Jacques Maritain ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cosmopolitan Democracy ◽  
Catholic Tradition

One of the central questions in international relations today is how we should conceive of state sovereignty. The notion of sovereignty—’supreme authority within a territory’, as Daniel Philpott defines it—emerged after the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 as a result of which the late medieval crisis of pluralism was settled. But recent changes in the international order, such as technological advances that have spurred globalization and the emerging norm of the Responsibility to Protect, have cast the notion of sovereignty into an unclear light. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the current debate regarding sovereignty by exploring two schools of thought on the matter: first, three Catholic scholars from the past century—Luigi Sturzo, Jacques Maritain, and John Courtney Murray, S.J.—taken as representative of Catholic tradition; second, a number of contemporary political theorists of cosmopolitan democracy. The paper argues that there is a confluence between the Catholic thinkers and the cosmopolitan democrats regarding their understanding of state sovereignty and that, taken together, the two schools have much to contribute not only to our current understanding of sovereignty, but also to the future of global governance.

One Hundred and Fifty Years of Teubner Texts

1961 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-171
Author(s):  
Bruno Doer
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Classical Antiquity ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Publishing Firm ◽  
The Past ◽  
Classical Studies ◽  
Look Back ◽  
The Future ◽  
Do So ◽  
A Share

It is always agreeable to offer congratulations to someone who is celebrating a jubilee. It is a particular pleasure to do so when the ‘child’ whose birthday it is can look back over 150 years of existence, and all those who have a share in the jubilee may reflect that the thanks for the achievements of the past and wishes for the future serve the cause of publicity. For no one who sets out to discuss the state of classical studies in Germany can, or should, fail to mention the Leipzig publishing firm of B. G. Teubner. Here publishing and scholarship have in the past century and a half formed an indissoluble partnership which has made it its duty to provide the best texts for use in the study of classical antiquity.

scholarly journals Evaluation of temporal drought variation and projection in a tropical river basin of Kerala

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 115-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Jincy Rose ◽  
N. R. Chithra
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Tropical River ◽  
The Past ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract Temperature is an indispensable parameter of climate that triggers evapotranspiration and has vital importance in aggravating drought severity. This paper analyses the existence and persistence of drought conditions which are said to prevail in a tropical river basin which was once perennial. Past observed data and future climate projections of precipitation and temperature were used for this purpose. The assessment and projection of this study employ the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) compared with that of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicate the existence of drought in the past and the drought conditions that may persist in the future according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The past drought years identified in the study were compared with the drought declared years in the state and were found to be matching. The evaluation of the future scenarios unveils the occurrence of drought in the basin ranging from mild to extreme conditions. It has been noted that the number of moderate and severe drought months has increased based on SPEI compared to SPI, indicating the importance of temperature in drought studies. The study can be considered as a plausible scientific remark helpful in risk management and application decisions.

scholarly journals Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Champagne ◽  
Martin Leduc ◽  
Paulin Coulibaly ◽  
M. Altaf Arain
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Extreme events are widely studied across the world because of their major implications for many aspects of society and especially floods. These events are generally studied in term of precipitation or temperature extreme indices that are often not adapted for regions affected by floods caused by snowmelt. Rain on Snow index has been widely used but it neglects rain only events which are expected to be more frequent in the future. In this study we identified a new winter compound index and assessed how large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the past and future evolution of these events in the Great Lakes region. The future evolution of this index was projected using temperature and precipitation from the Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE). These climate data were used as input in PRMS hydrological model to simulate the future evolution of high flows in three watersheds in Southern Ontario. We also used five recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in northeastern North America and identified how they control the past and future variability of the newly created index and high flows. The results show that daily precipitation higher than 10 mm and temperature higher than 5 °C were a necessary historical condition to produce high flows in these three watersheds. In the historical period, the occurrences of these heavy rain and warm events as well as high flows were associated to two main patterns characterized by high Z500 anomalies centred on eastern Great Lakes (HP) and the Atlantic Ocean (South). These hydrometeorological extreme events will be more frequent in the near future and will still be associated to the same atmospheric patterns. The future evolution of the index will be modulated by the internal variability of the climate system as higher Z500 in the east coast will amplify the increase in the number of events, especially the warm events. The relationship between the extreme weather index and high flows will be modified in the future as the snowpack reduces and rain becomes the main component of high flows generation. This study shows the values of CRCM5-LE dataset to simulate hydrometeorological extreme events in Eastern Canada and to better understand the uncertainties associated to internal variability of climate.

scholarly journals Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Soriano ◽  
Luis Mediero ◽  
Carlos Garijo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flood Quantiles ◽  
The Impact

Climate projections provided by EURO-CORDEX predict changes in annual maximum series of daily rainfall in the future in some areas of Spain because of climate change. Precipitation and temperature projections supplied by climate models do not usually fit exactly the statistical properties of the observed time series in the control period. Bias correction methods are used to reduce such errors. This paper seeks to find the most adequate bias correction techniques for temperature and precipitation projections that minimizes the errors between observations and climate model simulations in the control period. Errors in flood quantiles are considered to identify the best bias correction techniques, as flood quantiles are used for hydraulic infrastructure design and safety assessment. In addition, this study aims to understand how the expected changes in precipitation extremes and temperature will affect the catchment response in flood events in the future. Hydrological modelling is required to characterize rainfall-runoff processes adequately in a changing climate, in order to estimate flood changes expected in the future. Four catchments located in the central-western part of Spain have been selected as case studies. The HBV hydrological model has been calibrated in the four catchments by using the observed precipitation, temperature and streamflow data available on a daily scale. Rainfall has been identified as the most significant input to the model, in terms of its influence on flood response. The quantile mapping polynomial correction has been found to be the best bias correction method for precipitation. A general reduction in flood quantiles is expected in the future, smoothing the increases identified in precipitation quantiles by the reduction of soil moisture content in catchments, due to the expected increase in temperature and decrease in mean annual precipitations.

scholarly journals Glacier changes during the past century in the Gangrigabu mountains, southeast Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, China

2006 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 187-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Donghui Shangguan ◽  
Yongjian Ding ◽  
Haidong Han ◽  
Changwei Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Positive Mass ◽  
Plateau Region ◽  
The Past ◽  
Glacier Changes ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Southeast Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Area And Volume

AbstractThe present research focuses on glacier changes in the southeast of the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, where most of the temperate glaciers in China are located. Our results show that the 102 measured glaciers in the region have all retreated between 1915 and 1980, with total area and volume decreases of 47.9 km2 and 6.95 km3, respectively. The extrapolated mass loss of all glaciers in the Gangrigabu mountains amounted to 27 km3, 9.8% of the ice mass in 1915. Between 1980 and 2001, glaciers in the region have also experienced a general retreat; however, up to 40% of the glaciers were advancing. Our analysis demonstrates that precipitation in the studied area has increased substantially since the mid-1980s. This precipitation increase is likely to bring about a positive mass balance for glaciers in the region, so that the retreat of retreating glaciers might slow down or even turn into advance. Considering the sensitivity of the temperate glaciers in the region and the uncertainty in climate projections, more attention must be paid to glacier changes in the southeast Tibetan Plateau region.

scholarly journals Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 301-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Champagne ◽  
Martin Leduc ◽  
Paulin Coulibaly ◽  
M. Altaf Arain
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Extreme events are widely studied across the world because of their major implications for many aspects of society and especially floods. These events are generally studied in terms of precipitation or temperature extreme indices that are often not adapted for regions affected by floods caused by snowmelt. The rain on snow index has been widely used, but it neglects rain-only events which are expected to be more frequent in the future. In this study, we identified a new winter compound index and assessed how large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the past and future evolution of these events in the Great Lakes region. The future evolution of this index was projected using temperature and precipitation from the Canadian Regional Climate Model large ensemble (CRCM5-LE). These climate data were used as input in Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) hydrological model to simulate the future evolution of high flows in three watersheds in southern Ontario. We also used five recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in north-eastern North America and identified how they control the past and future variability of the newly created index and high flows. The results show that daily precipitation higher than 10 mm and temperature higher than 5 ∘C were necessary historical conditions to produce high flows in these three watersheds. In the historical period, the occurrences of these heavy rain and warm events as well as high flows were associated with two main patterns characterized by high Z500 anomalies centred on eastern Great Lakes (HP regime) and the Atlantic Ocean (South regime). These hydrometeorological extreme events will still be associated with the same atmospheric patterns in the near future. The future evolution of the index will be modulated by the internal variability of the climate system, as higher Z500 on the east coast will amplify the increase in the number of events, especially the warm events. The relationship between the extreme weather index and high flows will be modified in the future as the snowpack reduces and rain becomes the main component of high-flow generation. This study shows the value of the CRCM5-LE dataset in simulating hydrometeorological extreme events in eastern Canada and better understanding the uncertainties associated with internal variability of climate.

The lingering core of legal scholarship

Legal Studies ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Bartie
Keyword(s):  
Past Century ◽  
Legal Scholarship ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Way

The purpose of this paper is to consider how leading scholars are interpreting the role and status of the core tenets of legal scholarship in England and Australia – the tenets that have provided an element of unity in legal scholarship over the past century or so. Instead of focusing on the way that scholarship has diversified and expanded, the paper considers whether elements of the prior orthodoxy have remained: do the tenets persist, what status are they afforded and what impact will their presence have on the future identity of the discipline and its conception of law? The paper captures insights into the way that scholars – as opposed to administrators or managers – are interpreting changes in the discipline. It is based on the premise that scholarly attitudes can shape the discipline and that therefore such attitudes are worthy of study.

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