scholarly journals Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100)

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 771-784 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Arheimer ◽  
G. Lindström
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impact ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
The South ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Model Chain

Abstract. There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the country (450 000 km2) with high-resolution dynamic model projections of the upcoming century. The results show that the changes in annual maximum daily flows in Sweden oscillate between dry and wet periods but exhibit no significant trend over the past 100 years. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver of changes in river high flows, which are related primarily to snowmelt in Sweden. Annual daily high flows may decrease by on average −1% per decade in the future, mainly due to lower peaks from snowmelt in the spring (−2% per decade) as a result of higher temperatures and a shorter snow season. In contrast, autumn flows may increase by +3% per decade due to more intense rainfall. This indicates a shift in flood-generating processes in the future, with greater influence of rain-fed floods. Changes in climate may have a more significant impact on some specific rivers than on the average for the whole country. Our results suggest that the temporal pattern in future daily high flow in some catchments will shift in time, with spring floods in the northern–central part of Sweden occurring about 1 month earlier than today. High flows in the southern part of the country may become more frequent. Moreover, the current boundary between snow-driven floods in northern–central Sweden and rain-driven floods in the south may move toward higher latitudes due to less snow accumulation in the south and at low altitudes. The findings also indicate a tendency in observations toward the modeled projections for timing of daily high flows over the last 25 years. Uncertainties related to both the observed data and the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology are discussed.

scholarly journals Climate impact on floods – changes of high-flows in Sweden for the past and future (1911–2100)

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 7551-7584 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Arheimer ◽  
G. Lindström
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impact ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
The Past ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows

Abstract. There is an on-going discussion whether floods are more frequent nowadays than in the past and whether they will increase in a future climate. To explore this for Sweden we merged observed time-series from 69 sites across the country (450 000 km2) for the past century with high-resolution dynamic scenario modeling of the up-coming century. The results show that the changes of daily annual high flows in Sweden oscillate between decades, but there is no significant trend for the past 100 years. A small tendency for high flows to decrease by 0.3–0.4% per decade in magnitude and 10-year flood frequency was noted, but not statistically significant. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver for river high-flows, as these are mainly related to snow melt in Sweden. Also in the future there will be oscillations between decades, but these were difficult to estimate as climate projections were not in phase with observations. However, in the long term, the daily annual high-flows may decrease by on average 1% per decade, mainly due to lower peaks from snow melt in the spring (–2% per decade) caused by higher temperatures and shorter snow season. On the contrary, autumn flows may increase by 3% per decade due to more intensive rainfall. This indicates a shift in flood generating processes in the future, with more influence of rain generated floods. This should be considered in reference data for design variables when adapting to climate change. Uncertainties related to the study are discussed in the paper, both for observed data and for the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology.

Catholicism and Cosmopolitanism: the Confluence of Three Catholic Scholars and the Cosmopolitan Democrats on State Sovereignty and the Future of Global Governance

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-51
Author(s):  
Matthew Bagot
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
State Sovereignty ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Jacques Maritain ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cosmopolitan Democracy ◽  
Catholic Tradition

One of the central questions in international relations today is how we should conceive of state sovereignty. The notion of sovereignty—’supreme authority within a territory’, as Daniel Philpott defines it—emerged after the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 as a result of which the late medieval crisis of pluralism was settled. But recent changes in the international order, such as technological advances that have spurred globalization and the emerging norm of the Responsibility to Protect, have cast the notion of sovereignty into an unclear light. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the current debate regarding sovereignty by exploring two schools of thought on the matter: first, three Catholic scholars from the past century—Luigi Sturzo, Jacques Maritain, and John Courtney Murray, S.J.—taken as representative of Catholic tradition; second, a number of contemporary political theorists of cosmopolitan democracy. The paper argues that there is a confluence between the Catholic thinkers and the cosmopolitan democrats regarding their understanding of state sovereignty and that, taken together, the two schools have much to contribute not only to our current understanding of sovereignty, but also to the future of global governance.

Extreme precipitation events during the South Asian summer monsoon season in the past century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renaud Falga ◽  
Chien Wang
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Past Century ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>The South Asian monsoon system impacts the livelihoods of over a billion people. While the overall monsoon rainfall is believed to have decreased during the 20<sup>th</sup> century, there is a good agreement that the extreme precipitation events have been rising in some parts of India. As an important part of the Indian population is dependent on rainfed agriculture, such a rise in extremes, along with resulting flood events, can be all the more problematic. Although studies tend to link this rise in extreme events with anthropogenic forcing, some uncertainties remain on the exact causes. In order to examine the correlation between anthropogenic forcings and the different trends in extreme events, we have analyzed the high-resolution daily rainfall data in the past century delivered by the Indian Meteorological Department alongside several other economic and ecological estimates. The results from this analysis will be presented in detail.</p>

The Lakefront Today

2021 ◽  
pp. 281-298
Author(s):  
Joseph D. Kearney ◽  
Thomas W. Merrill
Keyword(s):  
Public Trust ◽  
The Political ◽  
Boundary Line ◽  
Deep Tunnel ◽  
The South ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Public Trust Doctrine ◽  
The Future ◽  
Recent Developments

This chapter reviews how the political settlements and legal understandings canvassed in the account continue to affect the Chicago lakefront today. It offers brief snapshots of five more recent developments on the lakefront that reflect the influence of the past — and that may be indicative of the future. The chapter begins by recounting the boundary-line agreement of 1912 which planted the seeds of the Illinois Central's demise on the lakefront. Today, the railroad has largely disappeared from the lakefront, in both name and fact. The chapter then shifts to discuss the Ward cases, which continue to affect the shape of the lakefront. It chronicles the success of Millennium Park and the Illinois Supreme Court's demotion of the public dedication doctrine to a statutory right limited to Grant Park. The chapter also recounts the Deep Tunnel project and the challenges in the South Works site. Ultimately, it discusses the appearance of the public trust doctrine on the lakefront, being invoked by preservationist groups to challenge both a new museum and the construction of President Barack Obama's presidential library (called the Obama Presidential Center).

One Hundred and Fifty Years of Teubner Texts

1961 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-171
Author(s):  
Bruno Doer
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Classical Antiquity ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Publishing Firm ◽  
The Past ◽  
Classical Studies ◽  
Look Back ◽  
The Future ◽  
Do So ◽  
A Share

It is always agreeable to offer congratulations to someone who is celebrating a jubilee. It is a particular pleasure to do so when the ‘child’ whose birthday it is can look back over 150 years of existence, and all those who have a share in the jubilee may reflect that the thanks for the achievements of the past and wishes for the future serve the cause of publicity. For no one who sets out to discuss the state of classical studies in Germany can, or should, fail to mention the Leipzig publishing firm of B. G. Teubner. Here publishing and scholarship have in the past century and a half formed an indissoluble partnership which has made it its duty to provide the best texts for use in the study of classical antiquity.

scholarly journals Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Champagne ◽  
Martin Leduc ◽  
Paulin Coulibaly ◽  
M. Altaf Arain
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Extreme events are widely studied across the world because of their major implications for many aspects of society and especially floods. These events are generally studied in term of precipitation or temperature extreme indices that are often not adapted for regions affected by floods caused by snowmelt. Rain on Snow index has been widely used but it neglects rain only events which are expected to be more frequent in the future. In this study we identified a new winter compound index and assessed how large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the past and future evolution of these events in the Great Lakes region. The future evolution of this index was projected using temperature and precipitation from the Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE). These climate data were used as input in PRMS hydrological model to simulate the future evolution of high flows in three watersheds in Southern Ontario. We also used five recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in northeastern North America and identified how they control the past and future variability of the newly created index and high flows. The results show that daily precipitation higher than 10 mm and temperature higher than 5 °C were a necessary historical condition to produce high flows in these three watersheds. In the historical period, the occurrences of these heavy rain and warm events as well as high flows were associated to two main patterns characterized by high Z500 anomalies centred on eastern Great Lakes (HP) and the Atlantic Ocean (South). These hydrometeorological extreme events will be more frequent in the near future and will still be associated to the same atmospheric patterns. The future evolution of the index will be modulated by the internal variability of the climate system as higher Z500 in the east coast will amplify the increase in the number of events, especially the warm events. The relationship between the extreme weather index and high flows will be modified in the future as the snowpack reduces and rain becomes the main component of high flows generation. This study shows the values of CRCM5-LE dataset to simulate hydrometeorological extreme events in Eastern Canada and to better understand the uncertainties associated to internal variability of climate.

scholarly journals Ka Mua, Ka Muri-Walking Backwards into the Future: An Environmental History of the South Wairarapa Region 1984-2016

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Eleanor Jane Rainford
Keyword(s):  
Environmental History ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
The South ◽  
Neoliberal Reform ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
History Of The South

<p>‘Ka mua, ka muri’, Walking backwards into the future, is a Māori proverb that aptly describes the findings of this thesis. That we should look to the past to inform the future is arguably the purpose of history, yet we have to walk back far enough. Tracing back from the present, this thesis will address what has driven political, economic, environmental and social change within the South Wairarapa region from 1984 to the present day. The region has experienced significant changes to its physical and social environment over the past thirty years. Many modern historians have attributed the key changes of this period, such as agricultural intensification, diversification, rising unemployment and environmental degradation, to the economic re-structuring of the Fourth Labour Government. This thesis will argue that these changes, and neoliberal reform itself, are consequent of much longer historiographical trends. Examination of the historical context and legacies of the intensification of dairy farming, rise of the viticulture industry, and the relationship between Ngāti Kahungunu and Rangitāne o Wairarapa and their whenua, reveals complexities in the history of the region that histories of neoliberal change commonly conceal. The identification of these long running historiographical trends aides understanding of the historical context in which neoliberal reform occurred, and provides alternative narratives for the changes that have occurred over the past thirty years. Furthermore, it suggests alternative trajectories for how viticulture, agriculture and Te Ao Māori may walk into the future.</p>

scholarly journals Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 301-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Champagne ◽  
Martin Leduc ◽  
Paulin Coulibaly ◽  
M. Altaf Arain
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Extreme events are widely studied across the world because of their major implications for many aspects of society and especially floods. These events are generally studied in terms of precipitation or temperature extreme indices that are often not adapted for regions affected by floods caused by snowmelt. The rain on snow index has been widely used, but it neglects rain-only events which are expected to be more frequent in the future. In this study, we identified a new winter compound index and assessed how large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the past and future evolution of these events in the Great Lakes region. The future evolution of this index was projected using temperature and precipitation from the Canadian Regional Climate Model large ensemble (CRCM5-LE). These climate data were used as input in Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) hydrological model to simulate the future evolution of high flows in three watersheds in southern Ontario. We also used five recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in north-eastern North America and identified how they control the past and future variability of the newly created index and high flows. The results show that daily precipitation higher than 10 mm and temperature higher than 5 ∘C were necessary historical conditions to produce high flows in these three watersheds. In the historical period, the occurrences of these heavy rain and warm events as well as high flows were associated with two main patterns characterized by high Z500 anomalies centred on eastern Great Lakes (HP regime) and the Atlantic Ocean (South regime). These hydrometeorological extreme events will still be associated with the same atmospheric patterns in the near future. The future evolution of the index will be modulated by the internal variability of the climate system, as higher Z500 on the east coast will amplify the increase in the number of events, especially the warm events. The relationship between the extreme weather index and high flows will be modified in the future as the snowpack reduces and rain becomes the main component of high-flow generation. This study shows the value of the CRCM5-LE dataset in simulating hydrometeorological extreme events in eastern Canada and better understanding the uncertainties associated with internal variability of climate.

scholarly journals Norfolk Island and Australia: a history of uneasy relationship

2020 ◽  
pp. 224-231
Author(s):  
S. E. Pale ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The South ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Norfolk Island ◽  
History Of

This article is about the complicated relations between Norfolk Island located in the South Pacific and Australia that possesses the island as its ‘external territory’. Over the past century Australia and its tiny but strategically important possession have overcome many difficult moments, the most dramatic of which took place in 2015, when the Australian Parliament ended self-government on the island and put Norfolk under the laws of New South Wales thus making it part of Australia.

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