How to predict hydrological effects of local land use change: how the vegetation parameterisation for short rotation coppices influences model results
Abstract. Among the different bioenergy sources short rotation coppices (SRC) with poplar and willow trees are one of the mostly promising options in Europe. SRC not only provide woody biomass, but often additional ecosystem services. One known shortcoming is the possible negative effect on groundwater recharge, caused by potentially higher rates of evapotranspiration compared to annual crops. An assessment of land use change by means of hydrological models and taking into account the changing climate can help to minimize negative and maximize positive ecological effects at regional and local scales, e.g. to regional climate and/or to adjacent ecosystems. The present study implemented the hydrological model system WaSim for such assessment. The hydrological analysis requires the adequate description of the vegetation cover to simulate the processes like soil evaporation, interception evaporation and transpiration. The uncertainties in the vegetation parameterisations might result in implausible model results. The present study shows that leaf area index (LAI), stomatal resistance (Rsc) as well as the beginning and length of the growing season are the sensitive parameters when investigating the effects of an enhanced cultivation of SRC on water budget or on groundwater recharge. Mostly sensitive is the description of the beginning of the growing season. When this estimation is wrong, the accuracy of LAI and Rsc description plays a minor role. The analyses done here illustrate that the use of locally measured vegetation parameters like maximal LAI and meteorological variables like air temperature, to estimate the beginning of the growing season, produce better results than literature data or data from remote network stations. However the direct implementation of locally measured or literature data on e.g. stomatal resistance is not always advisable. The adjustment of locally vegetation parameterisation shows the best model evaluation. Additionally the adjusted course of LAI and Rsc is less sensitive to different estimates for leaf unfolding, due to a slower increase in spring compared to a step functional annual course.