scholarly journals Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Merz ◽  
J. Hall ◽  
M. Disse ◽  
A. Schumann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Problem Definition ◽  
Organizational Characteristics ◽  
The Social ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Integrated Responses

Abstract. Flood risk emerges from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Over recent decades the notion of risk being the basis for flood management decisions has become widely accepted and operationalised through the use of models and quantified risk analysis providing the evidence for risk-informed decision making. However, it is now abundantly apparent that changes in time, at a range of scales, of pertinent variables that determine risk are not a second order consideration but, instead, fundamentally challenge the conventional approach to flood risk management. The nature of some of these changes, particularly those that operate on extended timescales, are highly uncertain, yet decisions that may have implications for several decades still have to be taken. In this paper we explore how flood risk management may be adapted to address processes of uncertain future change. We identify a range of levels at which change may be incorporated in decision making: in the representation of uncertain non-stationary quantities; in the rules that are used to identify preferred options; in the variety of options that may be contemplated for flood risk management; in the scope of problem definition, which increasingly extends to address multiple hazards and multiple functions of river basins; and in the social and organizational characteristics that promote adaptive capacity. Integrated responses to changing flood risk need to attend to each of these levels of decision making, from the technicalities of non-stationarity, to the promotion of resilient societies.

scholarly journals Does Flooding Define the Aquapelago? Constructing Venice’s flood disaster risk personality

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilan Kelman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Flood Disasters ◽  
The Impact

Part of Venice’s character and appeal is sometimes constructed and construed as being not just about water, but also about the role which flood management plays, especially avoiding floods. A ‘disaster risk personality’ is created regarding water-land interaction, based mainly on avoiding inundation. This paper explores the construction of this approach for Venice’s flood disaster risk personality through a conceptual examination of Venice as an aquapelago to understand water-land links and separations. With this baseline, three decision-making lessons for Venice’s flood disaster risk personality are detailed: (i) the dynamicity of the water-land interface and hence the aquapelago, (ii) the impact of structural approaches on disaster risk personality, and (iii) the implications of submergence. While non-structural approaches to flood risk management tend to have the best long-term successes in averting flood disasters, Venice has chosen the opposite approach of constructing a large barrier, substantively changing its disaster risk personality. This choice is not inherently positive or negative, with the desirability and usefulness being subjective and based on the (flood) disaster risk personality sought for the locale.

scholarly journals Development of an Operational Framework for Flood Risk Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 943 (1) ◽  
pp. 012009
Author(s):  
HMM Herath ◽  
NTS Wijesekera ◽  
RLHL Rajapakse
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Common Framework

Abstract Uncertainty is inherent to the decision-making process of flood risk management, and hence uncertainty management has been identified as crucial in the decision-making process. Flood management has been transformed towards flood risk management highlighting the stakeholder integration and adaptation to extreme flood events. Therefore, the development of multifunctional land uses over floodplains considering the multiple objectives of the stakeholders have become a key to manage uncertainty incorporated with flood risk management. Integration of multiple stakeholders in the decision-making process has been a challenging task. Therefore, spatial planning as a collaborative planning tool has become very important to manage flood risk. Operationalization of flood risk management is mainly governed by the characteristics of the planning processes and it is also coined with the governance context of each locality. However, the importance of the role of spatial planning in flood risk management is still hidden. Further, there is no common framework developed for structuring the complexity of the planning process. Therefore, this research attempts to develop a framework for the operationalization of flood risk management. The conceptual framework was developed based on a comprehensive literature review. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used and integrated with the Delphi technique to identify and calibrate the criteria and the sub-criteria of the framework. The developed framework has been validated with a case study. This research has been concluded that sixteen characteristics of the decision-making process contribute to the operationalization of flood risk management.

scholarly journals Characterising Local Knowledge across the Flood Risk Management Cycle: A Case Study of Southern Malawi

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Šakić Trogrlić ◽  
Grant Wright ◽  
Melanie Duncan ◽  
Marc van den Homberg ◽  
Adebayo Adeloye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Group Discussions ◽  
The Social ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
Complex Knowledge

People possess a creative set of strategies based on their local knowledge (LK) that allow them to stay in flood-prone areas. Stakeholders involved with local level flood risk management (FRM) often overlook and underutilise this LK. There is thus an increasing need for its identification, documentation and assessment. Based on qualitative research, this paper critically explores the notion of LK in Malawi. Data was collected through 15 focus group discussions, 36 interviews and field observation, and analysed using thematic analysis. Findings indicate that local communities have a complex knowledge system that cuts across different stages of the FRM cycle and forms a component of community resilience. LK is not homogenous within a community, and is highly dependent on the social and political contexts. Access to LK is not equally available to everyone, conditioned by the access to resources and underlying causes of vulnerability that are outside communities’ influence. There are also limits to LK; it is impacted by exogenous processes (e.g., environmental degradation, climate change) that are changing the nature of flooding at local levels, rendering LK, which is based on historical observations, less relevant. It is dynamic and informally triangulated with scientific knowledge brought about by development partners. This paper offers valuable insights for FRM stakeholders as to how to consider LK in their approaches.

GIS based Development of MCDM Model for Flood Risk Management across Godavari Lower Sub-Basin of India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Thanga Gurusamy ◽  
Avinash D Vasudeo ◽  
Aniruddha Dattatraya Ghare
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Hazard Zonation ◽  
Hazard Risk

<p><strong>Abstract: </strong>Because of the uncertainty and high cost involved, the Absolute Flood Protection has not been considered as a rational decision. Hence the trend is to replace Absolute Flood Protection strategy by Flood Risk Management Strategy. This Paper focus on the development of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) model towards Flood Risk Management (FRM) across Godavari Lower Sub-Basin of India using GIS based methodologies for Flood Hazard Zonation in order to achieve global minimum of the Flood predicted Risk level.  Flood Hazard Zone Map for the historical flood events obtained with the use of GIS based Digital Elevation Models across the study area have been presented and used for the estimation of Hazard Risk. Uncertainty (or Control) Risk levels of each Flood estimated using various Flood Forecasting methodologies have been compared for the selected locations of the study area. Effectiveness of Passive Flood Protection Measures in the form of Flood Levees has been quantitatively analyzed for the increase in the Opportunity Risk and corresponding reduction in the Flood Hazard Risk. Various types of Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) have been used  to determine a Compromise solution with conflicting criteria between Hazard Risk and Opportunity (or Investment) Risk and the results were compared for each of the selected levels of Flood estimated with corresponding uncertainty. Traditional optimization method in the form of Pareto-Optimal Front have also been graphically depicted for the minimization of both Hazard Risk Objective function and Opportunity Risk Objective Function and compared with those obtained using MOEAs. Watershed wise distribution of optimized Flood Risk variation across the Sub-basin has been presented graphically for both the cases of with and without active Flood Routing Measures. <strong>Keywords:  </strong>Flood Risk Management; GIS based Flood Hazard Zonation; Multi-Criteria Decision Making; Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms; Godavari Lower Sub-Basin of India;</p>

Real Options in flood risk management decision making

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Woodward ◽  
B. Gouldby ◽  
Z. Kapelan ◽  
S.-T. Khu ◽  
I. Townend
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Management Decision Making

scholarly journals The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S Reynard ◽  
Alison L Kay ◽  
Molly Anderson ◽  
Bill Donovan ◽  
Caroline Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Floods are one of the biggest natural hazards to society, and there is increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on flood occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, flood risk is likely to increase in the future not just through increased flood occurrence, but also through socio-economic changes, such as increasing population. The extent to which adaptation measures can offset this increased risk will depend on the level of future climate change, but there exists an urgent need for information on the potential impacts of climate change on floods, so that these can be accounted for by flood management authorities and local planners aiming to reduce flood risk. Agencies across the UK have been pro-active in providing such guidance for many years and in refining it as the science of climate change and hydrological impacts has developed. The history of this guidance for fluvial flood risk in England is presented and discussed here, including the recent adoption of a regional risk-based approach. Such an approach could be developed and applied to flood risk management in other countries, and to other sectors affected by climate change.

scholarly journals Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1019-1033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana Madruga de Brito ◽  
Mariele Evers
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Order Preference ◽  
Criteria Weights ◽  
Simple Additive Weighting

Abstract. This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making  (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

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