scholarly journals Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 2: Regional assessment for sites in south-east Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2273-2284 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Jakob ◽  
D. J. Karoly ◽  
A. Seed
Keyword(s):  
Radar Data ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
The North ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Quantile Estimates

Abstract. Using data for a common period (1976–2005) for a set of 31 sites located in south-east Australia, variations in frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed. This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. Analysis of seasonality in frequency and magnitude of events revealed considerable variation across the set of sites, implying different dominating rainfall-producing mechanisms and/or interactions with local topography. Both these factors are relevant when assessing the potential effects of climate variations on intense rainfall events. The set of sites was therefore split into groups ("north cluster" and "south cluster") according to the characteristics of intense rainfall events. There is a strong polarisation in the nature of changes found for the north cluster and south cluster. While sites in the north cluster typically exhibit decrease in frequency of events, particularly in autumn and at durations of 1 h and longer; sites in the south cluster experience an increase in frequency of events, particularly for summer and sub-hourly durations. Non-stationarity found in historical records has the potential to significantly affect design rainfall estimates. An assessment of quantile estimates derived using a standard regionalisation technique and periods representative of record lengths available for practical applications show that such estimates may not be representative of long-term conditions, so alternative approaches need to be considered, particularly where short records are concerned. Additional rainfall information, in particular radar data, could be used for an in-depth spatial analysis of intense rainfall events.

scholarly journals Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 1: Sydney, Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2263-2271 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Jakob ◽  
D. J. Karoly ◽  
A. Seed
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Quantile Estimates ◽  
Frequency Magnitude

Abstract. This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. While there are still large discrepancies between precipitation data sets from observations and models, both show that there is a tendency for moist regions to become wetter and for dry regions to become drier. However, changes in extreme conditions may show the opposite sign to those in average conditions. Where changes in observed intense precipitation have been studied, this has typically been for daily durations or longer. The purpose of this two-part study is to examine daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes for evidence of non-stationarity. Here the problem was addressed by supplementing one long record (Part 1) by a set of shorter records for a 30-yr concurrent period (Part 2). Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed using data from sites in the south-east of Australia. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peaks-over-threshold approach was chosen since it allows investigating changes in frequency as well as magnitude. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude, and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of changes for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill) for the period 1921 to 2005. Deviations from the long-term average vary with season, duration, and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs. Investigations presented in this paper show that variations in frequency and magnitude of events at daily durations are a poor indicator of changes at sub-daily durations. Studies like the one presented here should be undertaken for other regions to allow the identification of regions with significant increase/decrease in intense rainfall, whether there are common features with regards to duration and season exhibiting most significant changes (which in turn could lead to establishing a theoretical framework), and assist in validation of projections of rainfall extremes.

scholarly journals Living Well With a Long-Term Condition

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Stenberg ◽  
Penny J. Furness
Keyword(s):  
Social Connectedness ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Self Management ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
Term Condition ◽  
Living Well ◽  
The North ◽  
Management Interventions

The outcomes of self-management interventions are commonly assessed using quantitative measurement tools, and few studies ask people with long-term conditions to explain, in their own words, what aspects of the intervention they valued. In this Grounded Theory study, a Health Trainers service in the north of England was evaluated based on interviews with eight service-users. Open, focused, and theoretical coding led to the development of a preliminary model explaining participants’ experiences and perceived impact of the service. The model reflects the findings that living well with a long-term condition encompassed social connectedness, changed identities, acceptance, and self-care. Health trainers performed four related roles that were perceived to contribute to these outcomes: conceptualizer, connector, coach, and champion. The evaluation contributes a grounded theoretical understanding of a personalized self-management intervention that emphasizes the benefits of a holistic approach to enable cognitive, behavioral, emotional, and social adjustments.

Trends in rainfall intensity for stormwater designs in Ontario

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Vasiljevic ◽  
E. McBean ◽  
B. Gharabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Sewer Pipes ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Storm Sewer

The intensities of short-duration rainfall events are fundamental inputs to the design of stormwater management infrastructure. However, since stormwater infrastructure must function as designed for many decades, if there are long-term trends in rainfall intensities, design storms need to be modified. Evidence demonstrates, using data from 13 rain gauges in Ontario, that storm intensities relevant to urban stormwater (5 year) appear to have changed over the last 30 years. The results show, for example, statistical significance at 80% confidence that the 5-year storm has increased, and 85% that the 2-year storm has increased, for the 1 h storm in Waterloo, using partial duration series (PDS) data. The PDS data indicate intensities are increasing at a rate of 1–3% per year. Results show, for example, that a 5-year recurrence storm for PDS for the period 1970–1984 is now very close in magnitude to a 2-year recurrence storm for the period 1985–2003 for Waterloo, Ontario. The implications for a case study demonstrate that 5 out of 12 storm sewer pipes in a subdivision would need to be increased in diameter to obtain the same level of stormwater performance.

scholarly journals Investigation of Microphysical Processes Occurring in Organized Convection during NAME

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (7) ◽  
pp. 2168-2187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela K. Rowe ◽  
Steven A. Rutledge ◽  
Timothy J. Lang
Keyword(s):  
Cell Types ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Isolated Cells ◽  
The North ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Northwestern Mexico ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
Organized Convection

Abstract A major objective of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) was to quantify microphysical processes within convection occurring near the steep topography of northwestern Mexico. A previous study compared examples of isolated convection using polarimetric radar data and noted a dependence on mixed-phase processes via drop freezing and subsequent riming growth along the coastal plain and western slopes, with an even greater role of melting ice in rainfall production over the highest terrain. Despite the higher frequency of these isolated cells compared to organized convective systems, the latter were responsible for 75% of rainfall. Therefore, this study seeks to evaluate the role of mesoscale organization on microphysical processes and describes the evolution of these systems as a function of topography. Similar to isolated convection, both warm-rain and ice-based processes played important roles in producing intense rainfall in organized convection. Although similarities existed between cell types, organized convection was typically deeper and contained greater ice mass, which melted and contributed to the development of outflow boundaries. As convection organized along the slopes, these boundaries spread over the lower terrain, converging with diurnally driven upslope flow, thus allowing for the generation of new convection and propagation toward the coast. Once over lower elevations, additional warm-cloud depth contributed to intense rainfall and allowed for continued ice production. This, along with the development of rear inflow in the trailing stratiform region, led to further development of convective outflow, similar to organized systems in the tropics and midlatitudes.

scholarly journals Pharmacist integration into general practice in New Zealand

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Haua ◽  
Jeff Harrison ◽  
Trudi Aspden
Keyword(s):  
General Practice ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
District Health ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
The North ◽  
Medicines Reconciliation ◽  
Medication Reviews ◽  
General Practices

ABSTRACT IntroductionPharmacist integration into general practice is gaining momentum internationally, with benefits noted in reducing medication errors, improving chronic disease management and alleviating general practitioner workforce shortages. Little is known about how general practice pharmacists are working in New Zealand. AimThis study characterised the current landscape of pharmacist integration into general practice in New Zealand. MethodsAn online questionnaire was developed, piloted and distributed to all pharmacists in New Zealand. ResultsThirty-six responses were analysed. Respondents were more likely to be female, have been pharmacists for at least 10 years and all but one held formal postgraduate clinical pharmacy qualifications. Seven pharmacists were working as pharmacist prescribers. Primary health organisations (PHOs) were the most common employer, with funding primarily derived from either PHOs or District Health Boards. Pharmacist integration into general practice appears to have progressed further in particular regions of New Zealand, with most respondents located in the North Island. Tasks performed by respondents included medication reviews, managing long-term conditions and medicines reconciliation. Increased job satisfaction compared with previous roles was reported by most respondents. Funding and a general lack of awareness about pharmacists’ professional scope were seen as barriers to further expansion of the role. DiscussionThis study describes the characteristics of pharmacists currently working in general practices in New Zealand and provides insights into key requirements for the role. Understanding the way practice pharmacists are currently employed and funded can inform general practices considering employing pharmacists.

scholarly journals Catalogue and Atlas of giant aufeis of the North-East of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 04001
Author(s):  
Vladimir Alexeev ◽  
Olga Makarieva ◽  
Andrey Shikhov ◽  
Nataliia Nesterova ◽  
Andrey Ostashov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
History Of ◽  
Using Data ◽  
History Of Study ◽  
Kolyma River

This study presents the results of development of the Catalogue and Atlas of giant aufeis-taryns in the North-East of Russia. The characteristics of aufeis in the North-East of Russia for the last 70 years have been generalized and systematized into the Catalogue database using data from the Cadastre of aufeis (1958) and Landsat images for the period 2013-2017 for the Yana, Indigirka, Kolyma River basins and Chukotka area. In total the territory more than 1.9 million km2 is covered by the study. The Catalogue contains the information about the location and characteristics of more than 4600 aufeis fields. The release of the Atlas of aufeis-taryns in the North-East of Russia has been announced. It reveals the history of study, origin, distribution, and specific features of aufeis and is supplemented with medium- and large-scale maps of aufeis with their seasonal and long-term dynamics.

scholarly journals Determinants of Long-Term Unemployment in Brazil in 2013

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Elano F. Arruda ◽  
Daniel B. Guimarães ◽  
Ivan Castelar ◽  
Pablo U. C. Castelar
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Southeast Region ◽  
The North ◽  
National Household Survey ◽  
Household Heads ◽  
Using Data

This work analyzes the determinants of the probability of a Brazilian worker being unemployed for more than a year, using data from the 2013 National Household Survey (PNAD) and applying a probit model. The results show a lower chance of remaining jobless of males, heads of households, those who declared themselves black, younger people, those who completed higher education or are in the process of acquiring it, and residents of the Southeast and South regions of Brazil. The probabilistic scenarios show that the Brazilian workers least likely to remain unemployed for over a year are males, residents in the South or Southeast region, heads of a household, between 36 and 45 years of age, with higher education, with only a 0.6% chance of remaining in that condition. On the other hand, the workers with the highest chance of remaining unemployed are females, between 46 and 65 years old, residents in the North region, illiterate and not household heads, with a 41% probability of remaining unemployed.

scholarly journals Prevalence of persistent symptoms in children during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from a household cohort study in England and Wales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith Miller ◽  
Vincent Nguyen ◽  
Annalan MD Navaratnam ◽  
Madhumita Shrotri ◽  
Jana Kovar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Persistent Symptoms ◽  
History Of ◽  
Using Data

Using data from 4678 children participating in VirusWatch, a UK household cohort study, we estimated the prevalence of persistent symptoms as 1.7%, and 4.6% in children with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Persistent symptoms prevalence was higher in girls, teenagers and children with long-term conditions.

Temporal and Territorial Analysis of Multiple Deliveries in Spain (1900–2006)

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vicente Fuster ◽  
Pilar Zuluaga ◽  
Jorge Román-Busto ◽  
Sonia E. Colantonio
Keyword(s):  
Maternal Age ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Agricultural Areas

AbstractTemporal variations in the frequency of multiple maternities in many Western European countries have been described. However, within a single country, regional differences are observed. Urban industrialized regions and rural agricultural areas have experienced in recent decades a distinct decline in multiple deliveries, which in cases have been related to maternal age and parity changes. Research on multiple deliveries in Spain is scarce and none of the studies go back to the beginning of the 20th century or consider regional variation over an extended period of time. The present paper is a yearly study on multiple deliveries in Spain since 1900 including a geographical analysis. Rather than dealing with recent changes in multi-parity, this paper is concerned with Spain's long-term national variation (between 1900 and 2006). The changing pattern of double and triple deliveries was analyzed using data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). Twinning rates in Spain are low in comparison to those of equivalent periods in other countries, and the minimum rates correspond to the 1980s decade. Results were interpreted by taking into account the influence of age at maternity and reproductive variation up to 1990. A good fit between observed and predicted rates was obtained after the application of models, which besides maternal age and parity, include their interaction. Regarding territorial variability, the values corresponding to southern, northern and insular Spanish provinces are consistent with an earlier reduction of the crude birth rate in the north-east regions and latter in the southern regions and the Canary Islands.

scholarly journals A comprehensive high cost drugs dataset from the NHS in England - An OpenSAFELY-TPP Short Data Report

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 360
Author(s):  
Anna Rowan ◽  
Chris Bates ◽  
William Hulme ◽  
David Evans ◽  
Simon Davy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
Specific Group ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
Support Unit ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Data Coverage ◽  
The Uk

Background: At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no routine comprehensive hospital medicines data from the UK available to researchers. These records can be important for many analyses including the effect of certain medicines on the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. With the approval of NHS England, we set out to obtain data on one specific group of medicines, “high-cost drugs” (HCD) which are typically specialist medicines for the management of long-term conditions, prescribed by hospitals to patients. Additionally, we aimed to make these data available to all approved researchers in OpenSAFELY-TPP. This report is intended to support all studies carried out in OpenSAFELY-TPP, and those elsewhere, working with this dataset or similar data. Methods: Working with the North East Commissioning Support Unit and NHS Digital, we arranged for collation of a single national HCD dataset to help inform responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dataset was developed from payment submissions from hospitals to commissioners. Results: In the financial year (FY) 2018/19 there were 2.8 million submissions for 1.1 million unique patient IDs recorded in the HCD. The average number of submissions per patient over the year was 2.6. In FY 2019/20 there were 4.0 million submissions for 1.3 million unique patient IDs. The average number of submissions per patient over the year was 3.1. Of the 21 variables in the dataset, three are now available for analysis in OpenSafely-TPP: Financial year and month of drug being dispensed; drug name; and a description of the drug dispensed. Conclusions: We have described the process for sourcing a national HCD dataset, making these data available for COVID-19-related analysis through OpenSAFELY-TPP and provided information on the variables included in the dataset, data coverage and an initial descriptive analysis.

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