Hazardous geomorphic processes in the extratropical Andes with a focus on glacial lake outburst floods

<p>This study examines hazardous processes and events originating from glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes (Andes of Chile and Argentina) in order to document their frequency, magnitude, dynamics and their geomorphic and societal impacts. Ice-avalanches and rock-falls from permafrost areas, lahars from ice-capped volcanoes and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have occurred in the extratropical Andes causing ~200 human deaths in the Twentieth Century. However, data about these events is scarce and has not been studied systematically. Thus, a better knowledge of glacier and permafrost hazards in the extratropical Andes is required to better prepare for threats emerging from a rapidly evolving cryosphere. I carried out a regional-scale review of hazardous processes and events originating in glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes. This review, developed by means of a bibliographic analysis and the interpretation of satellite images, shows that multi-phase mass movements involving glaciers and permafrost and lahars have caused damage to communities in the extratropical Andes. However, it is noted that GLOFs are one the most common and far reaching hazards and that GLOFs in this region include some of the most voluminous GLOFs in historical time on Earth. Furthermore, GLOF hazard is likely to increase in the future in response to glacier retreat and lake development. To gain insight into the dynamics of GLOFs I create a regional-scale inventory of glacier lakes and associated hazards in the Baker Basin, a 20500 km2 glaciated basin in the Chilean Patagonia. I also simulate and reconstruct moraine- and ice- dammed lake failures in the extratropical Andes using numerical and empirical models. More than 100 GLOFs have occurred in the extratropical Andes since the Eighteenth Century and at least 16 moraine-dammed lakes have produced GLOFs. In the extratropical Andes most of the failed moraine-dammed lakes were in contact with retreating glaciers and had moderate (> 8°) to steep (>15°) outlet slopes. Ice-dammed lakes also produced GLOFs in the extratropical Andes, damaging communities and highlighting the need for a better understanding of the GLOF dynamics and hazards. Thus, I reconstruct and model GLOFs that occurred in maritime western Patagonia (Engaño Valley) and the high-arid Andes (Manflas Valley) to characterise the GLOF dynamics in these contrasting environments. Hydraulic modelling and geomorphologic analysis shows that the Engaño River GLOF (46º S) behaved as a Newtonian flow and incorporated tree trunks, from the gently sloping and heavily-forested valley, which increased the GLOF damaging capacity. In contrast, the Manflas GLOF (28º S) descended from a steep valley behaving as a sediment-laden flow, which was capable of moving boulder-size rocks dozens of kilometres from the GLOF source. In both events lack of awareness of the GLOF hazard and a lack of territorial planning accentuated the GLOF damage. These GLOF reconstructions highlight both the difficulties in modelling sediment-laden flows over long distances, and the utility of empirical debris-flow models for regional-scale hazard analysis. This thesis synthesises and increases our knowledge about the distribution, frequency, magnitude and dynamics of hazardous processes that have occurred in glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes. This knowledge forms a basis for future assessments of glacier and permafrost related hazards in the Chilean and Argentinean Andes and helps inform strategies and policies to face hazardous geomorphologic and hydrological processes emerging from a rapidly evolving cryosphere.</p>

Hazardous geomorphic processes in the extratropical Andes with a focus on glacial lake outburst floods

<p>This study examines hazardous processes and events originating from glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes (Andes of Chile and Argentina) in order to document their frequency, magnitude, dynamics and their geomorphic and societal impacts. Ice-avalanches and rock-falls from permafrost areas, lahars from ice-capped volcanoes and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have occurred in the extratropical Andes causing ~200 human deaths in the Twentieth Century. However, data about these events is scarce and has not been studied systematically. Thus, a better knowledge of glacier and permafrost hazards in the extratropical Andes is required to better prepare for threats emerging from a rapidly evolving cryosphere. I carried out a regional-scale review of hazardous processes and events originating in glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes. This review, developed by means of a bibliographic analysis and the interpretation of satellite images, shows that multi-phase mass movements involving glaciers and permafrost and lahars have caused damage to communities in the extratropical Andes. However, it is noted that GLOFs are one the most common and far reaching hazards and that GLOFs in this region include some of the most voluminous GLOFs in historical time on Earth. Furthermore, GLOF hazard is likely to increase in the future in response to glacier retreat and lake development. To gain insight into the dynamics of GLOFs I create a regional-scale inventory of glacier lakes and associated hazards in the Baker Basin, a 20500 km2 glaciated basin in the Chilean Patagonia. I also simulate and reconstruct moraine- and ice- dammed lake failures in the extratropical Andes using numerical and empirical models. More than 100 GLOFs have occurred in the extratropical Andes since the Eighteenth Century and at least 16 moraine-dammed lakes have produced GLOFs. In the extratropical Andes most of the failed moraine-dammed lakes were in contact with retreating glaciers and had moderate (> 8°) to steep (>15°) outlet slopes. Ice-dammed lakes also produced GLOFs in the extratropical Andes, damaging communities and highlighting the need for a better understanding of the GLOF dynamics and hazards. Thus, I reconstruct and model GLOFs that occurred in maritime western Patagonia (Engaño Valley) and the high-arid Andes (Manflas Valley) to characterise the GLOF dynamics in these contrasting environments. Hydraulic modelling and geomorphologic analysis shows that the Engaño River GLOF (46º S) behaved as a Newtonian flow and incorporated tree trunks, from the gently sloping and heavily-forested valley, which increased the GLOF damaging capacity. In contrast, the Manflas GLOF (28º S) descended from a steep valley behaving as a sediment-laden flow, which was capable of moving boulder-size rocks dozens of kilometres from the GLOF source. In both events lack of awareness of the GLOF hazard and a lack of territorial planning accentuated the GLOF damage. These GLOF reconstructions highlight both the difficulties in modelling sediment-laden flows over long distances, and the utility of empirical debris-flow models for regional-scale hazard analysis. This thesis synthesises and increases our knowledge about the distribution, frequency, magnitude and dynamics of hazardous processes that have occurred in glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes. This knowledge forms a basis for future assessments of glacier and permafrost related hazards in the Chilean and Argentinean Andes and helps inform strategies and policies to face hazardous geomorphologic and hydrological processes emerging from a rapidly evolving cryosphere.</p>

Time-dependent Seismic Footprint of Thermal Loading for Geothermal Activities in Fractured Carbonate Reservoirs

This paper describes and deploys a workflow to assess the evolution of seismicity associated to injection of cold fluids close to a fault. We employ a coupled numerical thermo-hydro-mechanical simulator to simulate the evolution of pressures, temperatures and stress on the fault. Adopting rate-and-state seismicity theory we assess induced seismicity rates from stressing rates at the fault. Seismicity rates are then used to derive the time-dependent frequency-magnitude distribution of seismic events. We model the seismic response of a fault in a highly fractured and a sparsely fractured carbonate reservoir. Injection of fluids into the reservoir causes cooling of the reservoir, thermal compaction and thermal stresses. The evolution of seismicity during injection is non-stationary: we observe an ongoing increase of the fault area that is critically stressed as the cooling front propagates from the injection well into the reservoir. During later stages, models show the development of an aseismic area surrounded by an expanding ring of high seismicity rates at the edge of the cooling zone. This ring can be related to the “passage” of the cooling front. We show the seismic response of the fault, in terms of the timing of elevated seismicity and seismic moment release, depends on the fracture density, as it affects the temperature decrease in the rock volume and thermo-elastic stress change on the fault. The dense fracture network results in a steeper thermal front which promotes stress arching, and leads to locally and temporarily high Coulomb stressing and seismicity rates. We derive frequency-magnitude distributions and seismic moment release for a low-stress subsurface and a tectonically active area with initially critically stressed faults. The evolution of seismicity in the low-stress environment depends on the dimensions of the fault area that is perturbed by the stress changes. The probability of larger earthquakes and the associated seismic risk are thus reduced in low-stress environments. For both stress environments, the total seismic moment release is largest for the densely spaced fracture network. Also, it occurs at an earlier stage of the injection period: the release is more gradually spread in time and space for the widely spaced fracture network.

Contamination of Frequency–Magnitude Slope (b-Value) by Quarry Blasts: An Example for Italy

Artifacts often affect seismic catalogs. Among them, the presence of man-made contaminations such as quarry blasts and explosions is a well-known problem. Using a contaminated dataset reduces the statistical significance of results and can lead to erroneous conclusions, thus the removal of such nonnatural events should be the first step for a data analyst. Blasts misclassified as natural earthquakes, indeed, may artificially alter the seismicity rates and then the b-value of the Gutenberg and Richter relationship, an essential ingredient of several forecasting models. At present, datasets collect useful information beyond the parameters to locate the earthquakes in space and time, allowing the users to discriminate between natural and nonnatural events. However, selecting them from webservices queries is neither easy nor clear, and part of such supplementary but fundamental information can be lost during downloading. As a consequence, most of statistical seismologists ignore the presence in seismic catalog of explosions and quarry blasts and assume that they were not located by seismic networks or in case they were eliminated. We here show the example of the Italian Seismological Instrumental and Parametric Database. What happens when artificial seismicity is mixed with natural one?

Using Waveguides to Model the Dynamic Stiffness of Pre-Compressed Natural Rubber Vibration Isolators

A waveguide model for a pre-compressed cylindrical natural rubber vibration isolator is developed within a wide frequency range—20 to 2000 Hz—and for a wide pre-compression domain—from vanishing to the maximum in service, that is 20%. The problems of simultaneously modeling the pre-compression and frequency dependence are solved by applying a transformation of the pre-compressed isolator into a globally equivalent linearized, homogeneous, and isotropic form, thereby reducing the original, mathematically arduous, and complex problem into a vastly simpler assignment while using a straightforward waveguide approach to satisfy the boundary conditions by mode-matching. A fractional standard linear solid is applied as the visco-elastic natural rubber model while using a Mittag–Leffler function as the stress relaxation function. The dynamic stiffness is found to depend strongly on the frequency and pre-compression. The former is resulting in resonance phenomena such as peaks and troughs, while the latter exhibits a low-frequency magnitude stiffness increase in addition to peak and trough shifts with increased pre-compressions. Good agreement with nonlinear finite element results is obtained for the considered frequency and pre-compression range in contrast to the results of standard waveguide approaches.

ASSESSMENT OF THE FREQUENCY OF DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN THE COASTAL ZONE OF THE FAR EAST DUE TO FLOODING

Рассматривались опасные гидрологические явления, связанные с высокими уровнями воды. На основе данных по 85 створам наблюдений за стоком на малых, средних и крупных реках прибрежной зоны Дальнего Востока за 2008-18 гг. проведена оценка максимальных (наивысших) годовых уровней воды. Рассчитаны внутригодовые средние и максимальные, а также межгодовые амплитуды колебаний уровней воды по каждому из створов. Проведена оценка наивысших уровней воды на основе критерия опасности - превышения значений уровней отметки опасного явления, определяемых территориальными подразделениями Росгидромета. Оценивались такие характеристики как частота, степень, а также генезис этого события. Выявлены территории региона, где опасные гидрологические события наблюдаются наиболее часто или являются наиболее сильными. Dangerous hydrological events associated with high water levels were considered. The maximum annual water levels were estimated on the basis of data from 85 stations of runoff observations on small, medium and large rivers in the coastal zone of the Far East in 2008-18. The intra-annual average and maximum, as well as inter-annual amplitudes of water level fluctuations were calculated. The maximum water levels were assessed with such hazard criterion as exceeding of the dangerous phenomenon value determined by the territorial divisions of the Federal Hydrometeorological Service. The following characteristics as the frequency, magnitude and genesis of this events were evaluated. The territories of the region with frequent or severe dangerous hydrological events are identified.

Association Between Management of Continuous Subcutaneous Basal Insulin Administration and HbA1C

Background: While we expect that patients who adjust their insulin delivery algorithms between clinic visits to have better glucose control compared to those who do not, this effect has not been quantified. Method: This is a single-center retrospective cohort study including pediatric and adult patients with type 1 diabetes evaluating insulin pump self-management behaviors. Basal insulin dose information was obtained from the Glooko-Diasend database, and used to quantify the frequency and magnitude of basal insulin daily dose adjustments within the 90-day window preceding HbA1c measurement. We use a linear mixed-effects model to analyze associations between frequency/magnitude of daily basal insulin changes and HbA1c. Results: We present data on 114 adult (44 ± 17 years, 60% female) and 212 pediatric (12 ± 4 years, 50% female) patients. Individuals changed their basal insulin dose on 72%-94% (interquartile range [IQR]) of observed days relative to the previous day. These changes varied 0.6%-2.4% IQR from the previous day’s value. In pediatric patients, lower HbA1c was associated with more frequent daily profile adjustments, while controlling for rate of hypoglycemia (z = -3.2, P = .001). In adults, there was no relationship between HbA1c and magnitude or frequency of basal profile adjustments. Conclusions: Pediatric patients who frequently modify their basal insulin exhibit somewhat better clinical outcomes, although the magnitude by which their basal amount is changed does not contribute to this effect.

Fuzzified time-frequency method for identification and localization of power system faults

In this work, different types of power system faults at various distances have been identified using a novel approach based on Discrete S-Transform clubbed with a Fuzzy decision box. The area under the maximum values of the dilated Gaussian windows in the time-frequency domain has been used as the critical input values to the fuzzy machine. In this work, IEEE-9 and IEEE-14 bus systems have been considered as the test systems for validating the proposed methodology for identification and localization of Power System Faults. The proposed algorithm can identify different power system faults like Asymmetrical Phase Faults, Asymmetrical Ground Faults, and Symmetrical Phase faults, occurring at 20% to 80% of the transmission line. The study reveals that the variation in distance and type of fault creates a change in time-frequency magnitude in a unique pattern. The method can identify and locate the faulted bus with high accuracy in comparison to SVM.