scholarly journals An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 315-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Song ◽  
Xinyu Fu ◽  
Yue Gu ◽  
Yujun Deng ◽  
Zhong-Ren Peng
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Land Use Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Modeling Uncertainties

Abstract. Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) – a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 – historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

scholarly journals An examination of land use impacts of sea level rise induced flooding

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Song ◽  
Xinyu Fu ◽  
Yue Gu ◽  
Yujun Deng ◽  
Zhong-Ren Peng
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Sleuth Model ◽  
Flooding Risk

Abstract. Coastal regions are under intense development because of their biodiversity and economic attractiveness. Meanwhile, these places are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. Continuing urban development in these coastal areas that are prone to be flooded increasingly poses unnecessarily risk to their residents. While overwhelming efforts have been made to investigate coastal land use changes, few studies have simultaneously explored urban growth dynamics and its interaction with the coastal hazards. This paper applied the cellular automaton-based SLEUTH model to calibrate historical urban growth pattern from 1974 to 2013 in Bay County coastal areas, Florida. Three scenarios of urban growth – historical trend, compact development, and urban sprawl – up to 2080 were predicted by applying the calibrated SLEUTH model. To assess the effects of different policies, we developed three excluded layers – no regulations, flooding-risk mitigation, and conservational/agricultural land protection – and evaluated how different urban growth scenarios were oriented under these policies. Eventually, flooding maps were overlaid with future urban areas, and the exposure of different urban growth patterns to sea level rise induced flooding was examined. The findings suggest that if coastal cities expand in a compact manner, areas vulnerable to flooding will increase compared with historical trend and urban sprawl scenarios. With respect to policies, if no regulations are implemented, on average the flooded area in 2080 would be more than 25 times under flooding-risk mitigation. The joint model can serve as a decision support tool to assist city officials, urban planners, and hazard mitigation planners in making informed decisions. The visualization results can be also useful in public outreach regarding coastal communities' increasing risk to flooding enhanced by sea level rise.

scholarly journals Socioeconomic and environmental predictors of estuarine shoreline hard armoring

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole E. Peterson ◽  
Craig E. Landry ◽  
Clark R. Alexander ◽  
Kevin Samples ◽  
Brian P. Bledsoe
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Environmental Predictors ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Shoreline Armoring ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
Estuarine Shoreline ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Rising sea levels and growing coastal populations are intensifying interactions at the land-sea interface. To stabilize upland and protect human developments from coastal hazards, landowners commonly emplace hard armoring structures, such as bulkheads and revetments, along estuarine shorelines. The ecological and economic consequences of shoreline armoring have garnered significant attention; however, few studies have examined the extent of hard armoring or identified drivers of hard armoring patterns at the individual landowner level across large geographical areas. This study addresses this knowledge gap by using a fine-scale census of hard armoring along the entire Georgia U.S. estuarine coastline. We develop a parsimonious statistical model that accurately predicts the probability of armoring emplacement at the parcel level based on a set of environmental and socioeconomic variables. Several interacting influences contribute to patterns of shoreline armoring; in particular, shoreline slope and the presence of armoring on a neighboring parcel are strong predictors of armoring. The model also suggests that continued sea level rise and coastal population growth could trigger future increases in armoring, emphasizing the importance of considering dynamic patterns of armoring when evaluating the potential effects of sea level rise. For example, evolving distributions of armoring should be considered in predictions of future salt marsh migration. The modeling approach developed in this study is adaptable to assessing patterns of hard armoring in other regions. With improved understanding of hard armoring distributions, sea level rise response plans can be fully informed to design more efficient scenarios for both urban development and coastal ecosystems.

scholarly journals Challenges in Chennai City to Cope with Changing Climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-43
Author(s):  
Anushiya Jeganathan ◽  
Ramachandran Andimuthu ◽  
Palanivelu Kandasamy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Green Cover ◽  
Chennai City

Cities are dynamic systems resulting from the complex interaction of various socio-ecological and environmental developments. Climate change disproportionately affects cities mostly located in climate-sensitive areas; thus, these urban systems are the most critical in modern societies under changing climate scenarios, uncertain disruptions, and urban inhabitants' daily lives. It is essential to analyze the challenges in the metropolitan area through the lens of climate change. The present work analyses the challenges in Chennai, a coastal city in India and one of the chief industrial growth canters in Indian and South Asian region. The challenges are analyzed through the city’s system analysis via land use, green cover, population, and coastal hazards. Land use and green cover changes are studied through satellite images using ArcGIS and assessing coastal risks due to sea-level rise through GIS-based inundation model. There are drastic changes in land-use patterns; the green cover had reduced much, including agricultural and forest cover due to rapid urbanization. The land use has changed to 59.6% of the reduction in agriculture land, nearly 40% reduction in forest land, and 47% of the wetland over time. The observed mean sea level trend for Chennai is + 0.55 mm/year from 1916 to 2015 and the area of 21.75 sq. km is under the threat of inundation to 0.5m sea-level rise. The population growth, drastic changes in land use pattern, green cover reduction, and inundation due to sea-level rise increase the city's risks to climate change. There is a need to ensure that future land-use developments do not worsen the current climate risk level, either through influencing the hazards themselves or affecting the urban system's future vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The study also urges the zone level adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience of the city.

scholarly journals Deconvolving The Effects of Coastal Erosion and Sea-Level Rise in Assessing Shoreline Retreat Along Semi-Arid Urban Coasts

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oula Amrouni ◽  
Essam Heggy ◽  
Abderraouf Hzami
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Coastal Erosion ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Shoreline Retreat ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract The alarming vulnerability of low-lying sandy beaches to the acceleration of global sea level rise has been confirmed in the recent IPCC AR6 report. The situation is worsened by increasing coastal erosion, resulting in additional shoreline retreat of sandy beaches along several semi-arid urban coastal areas around the globe. The additional shoreline retreats from erosion are indicative of the rising imbalance in coastal sedimentary processes, which are a direct consequence of changes in precipitation patterns, urban growth, and change in land use. To quantify the magnitude and timescale of both coastal erosion and sea-level rise (SLR) in generating shoreline retreat of sandy beaches in semi-arid urban areas, we combine photogrammetric and statistical methods to measure and forecast the decadal evolution of these coastlines using two well-characterized sites that are hypothesized herein to be globally representative of these types of coasts undergoing rapid urban growth. We use multi-decadal shoreline positioning and land use classification surveys of the Southern California (SC, USA) and the Hammamet-North (HAM, Tunisia) beaches from aerial and orbital photogrammetric images, combined with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, for the period from 1985 to 2018. Our results suggest that the current average shoreline retreat rates of sandy beaches range from -0.75 to -1.24 m/yr in SC and from -0.21 to -4.49 m/yr in HAM under similar aridity, land coverage and precipitation patterns. The observed decadal changes in shoreline positions along these semi-arid urban coastal areas are found to be accentuated by anthropogenic drivers associated with extensive urbanization, causing sediment imbalance at the coastline, adding up to the effect of the accelerating SLR. We assess that ~81% and 57% of the observed shoreline retreat was due to SLR, and 19% to 43% due to coastal erosion from urban growth along SC and HAM beaches, respectively. Using these measured rates, we establish a semi-empirical numerical model that combines urban growth and the observed shoreline retreat rate to forecast retreat rates through 2100 for both of our study areas, inferred herein to be representative of other global semi-arid urban coasts. Our model suggests that future average total shoreline retreat rates, accounting for both urban growth and SLR, range from -2 to -4 m/yr for SC and HAM sandy beaches, respectively, through 2100. The above suggests that if no mitigation is made, by 2100 the cumulative shoreline retreat in these urban areas could significantly exceed the Global Scale Assessment Model’s [46] cumulative projected average retreat of -30 m, confirming the alarming vulnerability of the semi-arid coastal urban areas that would need intensive and costly beach nourishment to control increasing shoreline erosion.

Linking socioeconomic development, sea level rise, and climate change impacts on urban growth in New York City with a fuzzy cellular automata-based Markov chain model

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 551-572
Author(s):  
Qi Lu ◽  
Justin Joyce ◽  
Sanaz Imen ◽  
Ni-Bin Chang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New York ◽  
Land Use ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
York City ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model

This study aims to conduct a multi-temporal change analysis of land use and land cover in New York City via a cellular automata-based Markov chain model that uses fuzzy set theory and multi-criteria evaluation to predict the city’s future land use changes for 2030 and 2050 under potential sea level rise and long-term rainfall-runoff flooding impacts driven by climate change. To determine the future natural forcing impacts on land use in New York City, this study highlights the need for integrating spatiotemporal modeling analyses, such as a statistical downscaling model driven by climate change with remote sensing and GIS to support urban growth assessment. The research findings indicate that the mean rainfall will increase in the future and sea levels will rise near New York City; however, open space is expected to decrease by 1.51% and 2.51% and the urban area is expected to expand by about 1.36% and 2.63% in 2030 and 2050 respectively, taking into account the climate change and sea level rise.

scholarly journals Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youjung Kim ◽  
Galen Newman
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Transformation Model

Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.

THE IMPRINT OF SEA-LEVEL RISE AND LAND-USE CHANGE ON OYSTER HABITATS IN A SMALL TRIBUTARY CREEK OF THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soely Luyando-Flusa ◽  
◽  
Christopher J. Hein ◽  
Leslie Reeder-Myers ◽  
Torben Rick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Small Tributary

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Using Virtual Reality in Sea Level Rise Planning and Community Engagement—An Overview

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1142
Author(s):  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Geraldine Fauville ◽  
Anna Carolina Muller Queiroz ◽  
Kelly L. Leo ◽  
Alyssa G. Newton Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Community Outreach ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Simple Task ◽  
Coastal Risks

As coastal communities around the globe contend with the impacts of climate change including coastal hazards such as sea level rise and more frequent coastal storms, educating stakeholders and the general public has become essential in order to adapt to and mitigate these risks. Communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. First, SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract as it is physically distant from many people; second, the rise of the sea is a slow and temporally distant process which makes this issue psychologically distant from our everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) simulations may offer a way to overcome some of these challenges, enabling users to learn key principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe learning environment. This article first presents the literature on environmental issues communication and engagement; second, it introduces VR technology evolution and expands the discussion on VR application for environmental literacy. We then provide an account of how three coastal communities have used VR experiences developed by multidisciplinary teams—including residents—to support communication and community outreach focused on SLR and discuss their implications.

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