scholarly journals On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 3297-3309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Lavaysse ◽  
Jürgen Vogt ◽  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
Florian Pappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
The North ◽  
The One

Abstract. An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based on forecasted precipitation derived from the Ensemble extended forecast model (ENS) of the ECMWF, and on forecasted monthly occurrence anomalies of weather regimes (MOAWRs), also derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that the MOAWRs approach outperforms the one based on forecasted precipitation in winter in the north-eastern parts of the European continent, where more than 65 % of droughts are detected 1 month in advance. The approach based on forecasted precipitation achieves better performance in predicting drought events in central and eastern Europe in both spring and summer, when the local atmospheric forcing could be the key driver of the precipitation. Sensitivity tests also reveal the challenges in predicting small-scale droughts and drought onsets at longer lead times. Finally, the results show that the ENS model of the ECMWF successfully represents most of the observed linkages between large-scale atmospheric patterns, depicted by the weather regimes and drought events over Europe.

scholarly journals On the use of Weather Regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Lavaysse ◽  
Jürgen Vogt ◽  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
Florian Pappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The One ◽  
Ecmwf Model

Abstract. An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based, respectively, on forecasted precipitation derived from the extended ENSemble system of the ECMWF, and on forecasted Monthly Occurrence Anomaly of Weather Regimes (MOAWRs) also derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that the MOAWRs approach outperforms the one based on forecasted precipitation in winter in the northern and eastern parts of the European continent, where more than 65 % of droughts are detected one month in advance. While, the approach based on forecasted precipitation achieves better performance in predicting drought events in central and eastern Europe in both spring and summer, when the local atmospheric forcing could be the key driver of the precipitation. Sensitivity tests also reveal the challenges in predicting small-scales and onset drought events at longer lead times. Finally, in most of the cases, the ENSemble system of the ECMWF successfully represents the observed large scale atmospheric patterns, depicted by the MOAWRs, associated with drought events over Europe.

scholarly journals Why Earthquakes Threaten Two Major European Cities: Istanbul and Bucharest

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory A. Houseman
Keyword(s):  
Upper Mantle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mass Movements ◽  
European Continent ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The North ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
The City ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Better Than

Istanbul and Bucharest are major European cities that face a continuing threat of large earthquakes. The geological contexts for these two case studies enable us to understand the nature of the threat and to predict more precisely the consequences of future earthquakes, although we remain unable to predict the time of those events with any precision better than multi-decadal. These two cities face contrasting threats: Istanbul is located on a major geological boundary, the North Anatolian Fault, which separates a westward moving Anatolia from the stable European landmass. Bucharest is located within the stable European continent, but large-scale mass movements in the upper mantle beneath the lithosphere cause relatively frequent large earthquakes that represent a serious threat to the city and surrounding regions.

The story of humanity and the challenge of posthumanity

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoltán Boldizsár Simon
Keyword(s):  
Human Subject ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Historical Narrative ◽  
Historical Narratives ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Historical Understanding ◽  
New Era ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The One ◽  
Better Than

Today’s technological-scientific prospect of posthumanity simultaneously evokes and defies historical understanding. On the one hand, it implies a historical claim of an epochal transformation concerning posthumanity as a new era. On the other, by postulating the birth of a novel, better-than-human subject for this new era, it eliminates the human subject of modern Western historical understanding. In this article, I attempt to understand posthumanity as measured against the story of humanity as the story of history itself. I examine the fate of humanity as the central subject of history in three consecutive steps: first, by exploring how classical philosophies of history achieved the integrity of the greatest historical narrative of history itself through the very invention of humanity as its subject; second, by recounting how this central subject came under heavy criticism by postcolonial and gender studies in the last half-century, targeting the universalism of the story of humanity as the greatest historical narrative of history; and third, by conceptualizing the challenge of posthumanity against both the story of humanity and its criticism. Whereas criticism fragmented history but retained the possibility of smaller-scale narratives, posthumanity does not doubt the feasibility of the story of humanity. Instead, it necessarily invokes humanity, if only in order to be able to claim its supersession by a better-than-human subject. In that, it represents a fundamental challenge to the modern Western historical condition and the very possibility of historical narratives – small-scale or large-scale, fragmented or universal.

scholarly journals Internal tide energy flux over a ridge measured by a co-located ocean glider and moored ADCP

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob Hall ◽  
Barbara Berx ◽  
Gillian Damerell
Keyword(s):  
Energy Flux ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Internal Tide ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Potential Density ◽  
The North ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Continental Shelves ◽  
Alternative Approach

Abstract. Internal tide energy flux is an important diagnostic for the study of energy pathways in the ocean, from large-scale input by the surface tide, to small-scale dissipation by turbulent mixing. Accurate calculation of energy flux requires repeated full-depth measurements of both potential density (ρ) and horizontal current velocity (u) over at least a tidal cycle and over several weeks to resolve the internal spring-neap cycle. Typically, these observations are made using full-depth oceanographic moorings that are vulnerable to being fished-out by commercial trawlers when deployed on continental shelves and slopes. Here we test an alternative approach to minimise these risks, with u measured by a low-frequency ADCP moored near the seabed and ρ measured by an autonomous ocean glider holding station by the ADCP. The method is used to measure the M2 internal tide radiating from the Wyville Thompson Ridge in the North Atlantic. The observed energy flux (4.2 ± 0.2 kW m−1) compares favourably with historic observations and a previous numerical model study. Error in the energy flux calculation due to imperfect co-location of the glider and ADCP is estimated by sub-sampling potential density in an idealised internal tide field along pseudorandomly distributed glider paths. The error is considered acceptable (

scholarly journals Characteristics of shallow thermally driven flow in the complex topography of the south-eastern Adriatic

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 1905-1922 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Prtenjak ◽  
I. Tomažić ◽  
I. Kavčič ◽  
S. Đivanović
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The South ◽  
Fine Grid ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Sodar Data ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
The North ◽  
Convergence Zones

Abstract. Characteristics of thermally induced flow, namely the sea breeze, are investigated along the south-eastern Adriatic. The chosen period 24–25 April 2006 favoured sea breeze development and simultaneously allowed a comparison of the large-scale wind influence (north-westerly wind versus south-easterly wind) and the complex terrain on the local circulations. Particular attention is paid to the small-scale formation of the wind field, convergence zones (CZs), channelling flows and small scale eddies, especially in the vicinity of two airports in the central part of south-eastern Adriatic. The results are based on wind measurements (from meteorological surface stations, radiosoundings, satellite data and sodar data) and further supplemented by model data at fine grid spacing. This study shows the formation of numerous irregular daytime and nighttime CZs, which occurred along the coastline in the lee of mountains and over the larger, elongated islands. The results show that the above mentioned airports are surrounded by daytime CZ formations within the lowermost 1000 m and associated updrafts of 1 m s−1, especially if CZs are maintained by the north-westerly large-scale winds. Whereas the daytime CZ was generated due to merged sea breezes, the weaker and shallower nighttime CZs were formed by wind convergence of the seaward breezes, and significantly modified by the large-scale flow of the topography (e.g., accelerated flow in the sea channels and substantial swirled flows around the islands). The passes between the coastal mountain peaks changed the inflow penetration, provoking the increase in wind speed of the channelled flow. The strongest sea breeze channelling was observed above the valley of the Neretva River, where the onshore flow reached 40 km inland with a strength of 8 m s−1, and the highly asymmetric offshore part was confined within the sea channel.

scholarly journals Toward Identifying Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Using North American Weather Regimes

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1875
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Nicolas Vigaud ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Graphical Tool

Abstract Large-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the North American sector, from the NCEP CFSv2 model. Four large-scale daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height data using K-means clustering are used as a low-dimensional basis for diagnosing the model’s forecasts up to 45 days ahead. On average, hindcast skill in regime space is found to be limited to 10–15 days ahead, in terms of anomaly correlation of 5-day averages of regime counts, over the 1999–2010 period. However, skill up to 30 days ahead is identified in individual winters, and intraseasonal episodes of high skill are identified using a forecast-evolution graphical tool. A striking vacillation between the West Coast and Pacific ridge patterns during December–January 2008/09 is shown to be predicted 20–25 days in advance, illustrating the possibility to identify “forecasts of opportunity” when subseasonal forecast skill is much higher than the average. The forecast-evolution tool also provides insight into the poor seasonal forecasts of California precipitation by operational centers during the 2015/16 El Niño winter. The Pacific trough regime is shown to be greatly overpredicted beyond 1–2 weeks in advance during the 2015/16 winter, with weather-scale features dominating the forecast evolution at shorter lead times. A similar though less extreme situation took place during the weaker El Niño of 2009/10, with the Pacific trough overforecast at S2S lead times.

scholarly journals What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 1077-1091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuqing Zhang ◽  
Y. Qiang Sun ◽  
Linus Magnusson ◽  
Roberto Buizza ◽  
Shian-Jiann Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
Order Of Magnitude

Abstract Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). This predictability limit is studied using unprecedented high-resolution global models with ensemble experiments of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 9-km operational model) and identical-twin experiments of the U.S. Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS; 3 km). Results suggest that the predictability limit for midlatitude weather may indeed exist and is intrinsic to the underlying dynamical system and instabilities even if the forecast model and the initial conditions are nearly perfect. Currently, a skillful forecast lead time of midlatitude instantaneous weather is around 10 days, which serves as the practical predictability limit. Reducing the current-day initial-condition uncertainty by an order of magnitude extends the deterministic forecast lead times of day-to-day weather by up to 5 days, with much less scope for improving prediction of small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms. Achieving this additional predictability limit can have enormous socioeconomic benefits but requires coordinated efforts by the entire community to design better numerical weather models, to improve observations, and to make better use of observations with advanced data assimilation and computing techniques.

scholarly journals Probabilistic streamflow forecasts based on hydrologic persistence and large-scale climate signals in central Texas

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 760-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenge Wei ◽  
David W. Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
River System ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Central Texas ◽  
Multiple Predictor

Skillful streamflow forecasts at seasonal lead times may be useful to water managers seeking to provide reliable water supplies and maximize system benefits. In this study, streamflow autocorrelation and large-scale climate information are used to generate probabilistic streamflow forecasts for the Lower Colorado River system in central Texas. A number of potential predictors are evaluated for forecasting flows in various seasons, including large-scale climate indices related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and others. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. An ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distribution-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed.

scholarly journals Importance of Resolving Kuroshio Front and Eddy Influence in Simulating the North Pacific Storm Track

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Ma ◽  
Ping Chang ◽  
R. Saravanan ◽  
Raffaele Montuoro ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Kuroshio Extension ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Local and remote atmospheric responses to mesoscale SST anomalies associated with the oceanic front and eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region (KER) are studied using high- (27 km) and low-resolution (162 km) regional climate model simulations in the North Pacific. In the high-resolution simulations, removal of mesoscale SST anomalies in the KER leads to not only a local reduction in cyclogenesis but also a remote large-scale equivalent barotropic response with a southward shift of the downstream storm track and jet stream in the eastern North Pacific. In the low-resolution simulations, no such significant remote response is found when mesoscale SST anomalies are removed. The difference between the high- and low-resolution model simulated atmospheric responses is attributed to the effect of mesoscale SST variability on cyclogenesis through moist baroclinic instability. It is only when the model has sufficient resolution to resolve small-scale diabatic heating that the full effect of mesoscale SST forcing on the storm track can be correctly simulated.

Process Optimization of One-Stage Propane Pre-Cooled MRC Cycle for Small-Scale LNG Plant

2012 ◽  
Vol 516-517 ◽  
pp. 1184-1187
Author(s):  
Heng Sun ◽  
Dan Shu ◽  
Hong Mei Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Process Parameters ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Main Process ◽  
One Stage ◽  
High Energy Efficiency ◽  
The One

One-stage pre-cooled mixture refrigerant cycle can be applied in small-scale LNG plant and be special suitable for skit mounted LNG plant. It has different character with the C3MR cycle used in large-scale LNG plant. The optimization of the mixture refrigerant is carried out using HYSYS software. The effect of the main process parameters on the performance of the cycle is calculated and discussed. The result shows that appropriate ranges of the process parameters exist. Higher and lower values of the parameters will increase the energy consumption significantly. The results also indicate that the optimization of the one-stage pre-cooled mixture refrigerant cycle can obtain rather high energy efficiency that is competitive with that of the SMR which is widely employed in small-scale LNG plant.

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