Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire prevention and fighting
Abstract. Cellular Automata have been successfully applied to simulate the propagation of wildfires with the aim of assisting fire managers in defining fire suppression tactics and in designing fire risk management policies. We present a Cellular Automata designed to simulate a severe wildfire episode that took place in Algarve (southern Portugal) in July 2012. During the episode almost 25 thousand hectares burned and there was an explosive stage between 25 and 33 h after the onset. Results obtained show that the explosive stage is adequately modeled when introducing a non-local propagation rule where fire is allowed to spread to the nearest and next nearest cells depending on wind speed. When the rule is introduced deviations in modeled time of burning from estimated time based on hotspots detected from satellite have a root mean square difference of 8.7 hours for a simulation period of 46 h (less than 20 %). The simulated pattern of probabilities of burning as estimated from an ensemble of 100 simulations show a marked decrease out of the limits of the observed scar, indicating that the model represents an added value for fire fighting in what respects to the choice of locations to allocate resources for fire combat.