scholarly journals Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of Vulcano Island, Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Costanza Bonadonna ◽  
Ali Asgary ◽  
Franco Romerio ◽  
Tais Zulemyan ◽  
Corine Frischknecht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
Vulcano Island ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract. Evacuation planning and management represents a key aspect of volcanic crises because it can increase people protection as well as minimize the potential impact on the economy, properties, and infrastructure of the affected area. Assessment of evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact is best done in a pre-disaster context as it helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that characterizes crises. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period that reveals that an evacuation of Vulcano would cause significant economic impact to the tourism industry if lasting more than 3 months (in case it was initiated at the beginning of the visitor season) to 1 year (in case it was initiated at the end of the visitor season).

Simulation based optimal evacuation plan in vertical ship lift: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 1757-1786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-Ping Wang ◽  
Mei-Ru Wang ◽  
Jian-Lan Zhou ◽  
Qing-Jun Zuo ◽  
Xun-Xian Shi
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Fire Evacuation ◽  
Fire Scenarios ◽  
Evacuation Model ◽  
Evacuation Plan

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop optimal evacuation plan to provide valuable theoretical and practical insight in the fire evacuation work of similar structures, by proposing a systematic simulation-based guided-evacuation agent-based model (GAM) and a three-stage mathematical evacuation model to investigate how to simulate, assess and improve the performance efficiency of the evacuation plan. Design/methodology/approach The authors first present the self-evacuation and guided-evacuation models to determine the optimal evacuation plan in ship chamber. Three key performance indicators are put forward to quantitatively assess the evacuation performance within the two fire scenarios. The evacuation model in tower is built to obtain the dividing points of the three different fire evacuation plans. Findings The study shows that the optimal evacuation plan determined by the GAM considering social relationships effectively relieves the congestion or collision of evacuees and improves the evacuation uniformity. The optimal evacuation plan not only solves the crush caused by congestion or collision of evacuees but also can greatly shorten the evacuation time for passenger ship fire. Originality/value This study establishes the GAM considering the interactive evacuee characteristics and the proportion of evacuees guided by the crew members to make the optimal evacuation plan more time-efficient. The self-evacuation process is simulated to assess the performance of the guided-evacuation strategies, which are used to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the optimal evacuation plan in this research.

scholarly journals The future of Wallace region in Lombok: the pristine natural resource under climatic and anthropogenic threat

2021 ◽  
Vol 913 (1) ◽  
pp. 012049
Author(s):  
Mahrup ◽  
M Ma’shum ◽  
MH Idris ◽  
Fahrudin
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Natural Scene ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
The Future ◽  
World Class ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Wallace region is mostly comprised of the southeast archipelagoes of Indonesia, namely West and East Nusa Tenggara. Lombok is a west border of the Wallace line which biologically delineate the distinguished fauna and climate in the eastern Indonesia. However, the pristine natural resource is under climatic and anthropogenic threat. A case study by means of a Descriptive method was conducted to identify any contradictive use of natural resource leading to environmental degradation, as well as to study ruination impact of climate uncertainty. Long term satellite images of Lombok from 1980’s up to the latest date were traced to identify any changes in land cover, land use and settlement. Climate data were analyzed to find its trend and forecast its potential impact on the environment. Overall, the results showed that the pristine environments, namely forests, hillocks and cliffs, particularly in tourism destination sites had been accordingly overburdened by contradictive use of resources. Lack of law enforcements in environmental protection was a key point to be addressed as a major factor resulted in losses of the most valuable value of Lombok natural scene. In addition, manmade disaster is becoming more frequent with climate change commonly accused. In conclusion, the future of the natural resource in Lombok would not be merely relied on world class facilities of tourism industry, but on to what extend effort to naturally sustain the beauty of natural scene, stop degrading the lands and be responsible to protect environment in line with regional development.

scholarly journals Accounting for the Role of Asymptomatic Patients in Understanding the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study from Singapore

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fu Teck Liew ◽  
Palash Ghosh ◽  
Bibhas Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections

Objectives: To forecast the true growth of COVID-19 cases in Singapore after accounting for asymptomatic infections, we study and make modifications to the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) epidemiological model by incorporating hospitalization dynamics and the presence of asymptomatic cases. We then compare the simulation results of our three epidemiological models of interest against the daily reported COVID-19 case counts across the time period from 23rd January to 6th April 2020. Finally, we compare and evaluate on the performance and accuracy of the aforementioned models' simulations. Methods: Three epidemiological models are used to forecast the true growth of COVID-19 case counts by accounting for asymptomatic infections in Singapore. They are the exponential model, SEIR model with hospitalization dynamics (SEIHRD), and the SEIHRD model with inclusion of asymptomatic cases (SEAIHRD). Results: Simulation results of all three models reflect underestimation of COVID-19 cases in Singapore during the early stages of the pandemic. At a 40% asymptomatic proportion, we report basic reproduction number R0 = 3.28 and 3.74 under the SEIHRD and SEAIHRD models respectively. At a 60% asymptomatic proportion, we report R0 = 3.48 and 3.96 under the SEIHRD and SEAIHRD models respectively. Conclusions: Based on the results of different simulation scenarios, we are highly confident that the number of COVID-19 cases in Singapore was underestimated during the early stages of the pandemic. This is supported by the exponential increase of COVID-19 cases in Singapore as the pandemic developed.

Does Event-Driven Tourism Provide Economic Benefits? A Case Study from the Manawatu Region of New Zealand

2003 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry Auld ◽  
Sarah McArthur
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Effective Strategy ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
Event Driven ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Tourism Organization

The prime purpose of the New Zealand tourism industry is to create income. Events are becoming a major component of the tourism product. This study analyses the economic impact of an events festival in the Manawatu region of New Zealand. Destination Manawatu, the region's tourism organization, wanted to know whether an events festival held in March 1999 had provided net benefits for the region. Analysis indicates that the festival did produce significant economic benefits for the Manawatu, suggesting that event-driven tourism is an effective strategy for Destination Manawatu.

The Effect of Managers' Business Intelligence on Attracting Foreign Tourists Case Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Hadi Teimouri ◽  
Farnaz Afshar Hoojaghan ◽  
Kouroush Jenab ◽  
Sam Khoury
Keyword(s):  
Business Intelligence ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Face Validity ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Statistical Population ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
Objective Aspect

Today, the effect of the tourism industry is observed in all economic, social, cultural, and political dimensions of societies and finding innovative and creative ways to develop it has doubled the importance of research in this area. The purpose of this study is to address the effect of managers' business intelligence on attracting foreign tourists. It is applicable from an objective aspect and descriptive-field from a methodological aspect. The statistical population included all foreign tourists in Shiraz during the time period of June-August 2015 and a random sampling method was employed for sampling. The sample size was estimated equal to 180. Having distributed the questionnaires, 166 questionnaires were acceptable and considered as the basis of conducting the research. Validity of the questionnaire was confirmed via face validity and its reliability was determined using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. More than 70% for all variables under study showed the suitable reliability of the questionnaire. Also, structural equation modeling was employed to test the hypotheses. The results indicated that there is a positive and significant relationship between dimensions of managers' business intelligence and attracting foreign tourists.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impacts of Autonomous Bus-on-Demand Based on Agent-Based Simulation: A Case Study of Fuyang, Zhejiang, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Zhikang Zhai ◽  
Ying Yang ◽  
Yu Shen ◽  
Yuxiong Ji ◽  
Yuchuan Du
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Center ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
On Demand ◽  
World Demand ◽  
Operation Control ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Bus Services

This paper envisions and assesses the performance of an autonomous bus-on-demand (ABoD) system. We take Fuyang, Zhejiang, China, as the study area to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of bus travel demand during workdays, and we propose replacing inefficient bus routes with the ABoD system. Agent-based models with various bus dispatching and operation control strategies are constructed to evaluate the performance of the ABoD system. The behaviors and interactions of the agents, passengers, autonomous buses, and a control center are designed. After the verification of the simulated bus travel demand with real-world demand, a series of scenarios with various ABoD operation strategies are simulated. The simulation results show that, in comparison with both current fixed-schedule bus services and the optimized bus dispatching strategies, the ABoD system occupies fewer road resources and utilizes bus vehicles more efficiently. Besides, the system is adaptive to the sudden surge in bus travel demand and is economically sustainable.

scholarly journals Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Tourism Market Recovery Strategy after COVID-19 in Yunnan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 11750
Author(s):  
Yumei Luo ◽  
Yuwei Li ◽  
Guiping Wang ◽  
Qiongwei Ye
Keyword(s):  
Management Practice ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Information Strategies ◽  
Recovery Strategies ◽  
Error Costs

The tourism industry hit severely by COVID-19 faces the challenge of developing effective market recovery strategies. Nonetheless, the existing literature is still limited regarding the dynamic evolution process and management practice. Hence, this study chose several famous spots in the Yunnan Province of China as the focus for a case study and utilized an agent-based simulation method for the decision-making process of tourists’ destination selection and the dynamic recovery process of the destinations under different price and information strategies. The study found that the recovery effects of information strategies are positive, negative, or have no effect in different destinations. In contrast, price strategies can significantly stimulate an increase in the market share of destinations. When price strategy and information strategy are applied simultaneously, the interaction effects are inconsistent in different destinations. The findings contribute to the prediction of the recovery effect of strategies, can reduce trial and error costs, and can improve the scientific understanding of tourism market recovery.

Simulation Tool for Assignment Models: SIMASI

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4723-4728
Author(s):  
Pratiksha Saxena ◽  
Smt. Anjali
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Procedure ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
Optimization Strategy ◽  
Performance Measurements ◽  
Integrated Simulation ◽  
Assignment Model ◽  
Classical Models ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Assignment Models

In this paper, an integrated simulation optimization model for the assignment problems is developed. An effective algorithm is developed to evaluate and analyze the back-end stored simulation results. This paper proposes simulation tool SIMASI (Simulation of assignment models) to simulate assignment models. SIMASI is a tool which simulates and computes the results of different assignment models. This tool is programmed in DOT.NET and is based on analytical approach to guide optimization strategy. Objective of this paper is to provide a user friendly simulation tool which gives optimized assignment model results. Simulation is carried out by providing the required values of matrix for resource and destination requirements and result is stored in the database for further comparison and study. Result is obtained in terms of the performance measurements of classical models of assignment system. This simulation tool is interfaced with an optimization procedure based on classical models of assignment system. The simulation results are obtained and analyzed rigorously with the help of numerical examples. 

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