scholarly journals The future of Wallace region in Lombok: the pristine natural resource under climatic and anthropogenic threat

2021 ◽  
Vol 913 (1) ◽  
pp. 012049
Author(s):  
Mahrup ◽  
M Ma’shum ◽  
MH Idris ◽  
Fahrudin
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Natural Scene ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
The Future ◽  
World Class ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Wallace region is mostly comprised of the southeast archipelagoes of Indonesia, namely West and East Nusa Tenggara. Lombok is a west border of the Wallace line which biologically delineate the distinguished fauna and climate in the eastern Indonesia. However, the pristine natural resource is under climatic and anthropogenic threat. A case study by means of a Descriptive method was conducted to identify any contradictive use of natural resource leading to environmental degradation, as well as to study ruination impact of climate uncertainty. Long term satellite images of Lombok from 1980’s up to the latest date were traced to identify any changes in land cover, land use and settlement. Climate data were analyzed to find its trend and forecast its potential impact on the environment. Overall, the results showed that the pristine environments, namely forests, hillocks and cliffs, particularly in tourism destination sites had been accordingly overburdened by contradictive use of resources. Lack of law enforcements in environmental protection was a key point to be addressed as a major factor resulted in losses of the most valuable value of Lombok natural scene. In addition, manmade disaster is becoming more frequent with climate change commonly accused. In conclusion, the future of the natural resource in Lombok would not be merely relied on world class facilities of tourism industry, but on to what extend effort to naturally sustain the beauty of natural scene, stop degrading the lands and be responsible to protect environment in line with regional development.

scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

The Media Trade Press as Technology Forecaster: A Case Study of the VCR'S Impact on Broadcasting

1997 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 417-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip M. Napoli
Keyword(s):  
Social Factors ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Media ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
And Diffusion ◽  
Trade Press

This paper assesses how the broadcasting and advertising trade press performed in their role as technology forecaster, using the introduction of the VCR and its potential impact on broadcasting as a case study. An examination of the forecasts made within the broadcasting and advertising trade press during the early stages of the VCR's development and diffusion indicates that the advertising trade press proved much more active and much more accurate in forecasting the future of the VCR. The results also indicate the importance of integrating technological and social factors for constructing accurate forecasts.

scholarly journals For Sustainable Benefits and Legacies of Mega-Events: A Case Study of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics from the Perspective of the Volunteer Co-Creators

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hany Kim ◽  
Yeongbae Choe ◽  
Daehwan Kim ◽  
Jeongmi (Jamie) Kim
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Mega Events ◽  
Winter Olympics ◽  
Personal Level ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Positive Effect

This study examined the outcome of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics from multiple perspectives. Tourism and sport researchers have focused on the legacy of mega-events, due to the opportunity they provide to transform a city positively, including through the development of the tourism industry. However, outcomes are not always positive, and the effects differ for every event. The effects of an event can be short-term or long-term. An event, to be truly successful, should aim to have a long-lasting and sustainable positive effect for everyone involved in hosting the event. Additionally, the outcome effects are perceived to be different by each stakeholder of any event. While the roles of volunteers are critical to the success of an event, their perspectives of the event outcomes have been relatively overlooked. Therefore, this study examined the legacy of the 2018 Winter Olympics, as the most recent and unique Olympics (also known as the Peace Olympics), from the perspectives of the volunteers as co-creators. Specifically, volunteers were asked to explain their perceptions of the success of the Olympics. Furthermore, they were asked to identify the legacy of volunteering and the legacy of the Olympics, in order to examine whether volunteers can distinguish the difference between the legacies of volunteering and the Olympics (i.e., event legacy). Using a modified version of content analysis, the results of the volunteer interviews indicated that volunteers identified the legacies of volunteering on a more personal level, emphasizing personal experience, while they identified the legacies of the Olympics on a community and national level.

Resort-based or resource-based tourism? A case study of Jamaica

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaunette Marie Sinclair-Maragh
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Hospitality And Tourism Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hospitality And Tourism

Title – Resort-based or resource-based tourism? A case study of Jamaica. Subject area – This case study can be used in the following subject areas: tourism management; tourism policy; tourism planning and development; destination marketing and management; hospitality and tourism management; special event planning and management; and attraction management. Study level/applicability – This case study is useful to both undergraduate and graduate students specializing in hospitality and tourism management. Case overview – This case study explored the nature of two forms of tourism development; resort-based and resource-based, and aimed to determine which is the more viable and sustainable option for the future of tourism in Jamaica, an island destination in the Caribbean which depends highly on the tourism industry. The literature established that both forms of tourism are challenged by several and varying factors and so their synergistic integration appears to be the most functional option for sustainable tourism development in Jamaica along with the involvement of the relevant stakeholders. Expected learning outcomes – The students should be able to: Distinguish between resort-based tourism and resource-based tourism by identifying the elements and attributes that make them different. ▪Explain the usefulness and drawbacks of both types of tourism model. ▪Discuss the nature of culture and heritage tourism and eco-tourism. ▪Analyze Jamaica's tourism model from the nineteenth to the twenty-firstst century by assessing the changes and developments. ▪Discuss the role of government in facilitating the development of a “wholisitic tourism model” that will facilitate the synergy of resort-based tourism and resource-based tourism. ▪Assess the role of the private sector in encouraging and facilitating resource-based tourism. Supplementary materials – Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes. Social implications – This case study conceptually and empirically analyzed the tourism model in Jamaica to ascertain whether or not the future of Jamaica's tourism should remain dependent on resort-based tourism or should it opt for resource-based tourism as a more viable and sustainable option. The discussion however, indicates that resort-based tourism can synergize with resource-based tourism to achieve sustainable development along with the involvement of all the relevant stakeholders including the government, hotel operators and the residents. The case synopsis likewise presented a concise summary of the literature reviewed regarding the concepts of resort-based tourism and resource-based tourism; and the case of Jamaica's tourism.The learning outcomes are intended to guide the teaching- learning process and stimulate students' understanding of the concepts of resort-based tourism and resource-based tourism and their specific implications in terms of tourism development in Jamaica. This knowledge can also be generalized to other destinations with similar historical background and tourism resources. The applied questions will guide the discussions and provide additional resources for assessment purposes. They will also help the students to critically assess the dynamics of tourism development.The case synopsis is consistent with the learning outcomes, corresponding applied questions and course recommendations. A total of two to three-hours teaching session can be used to discuss the constructs, analyze the case in point and answer the applied questions.

scholarly journals Planning for 1000 Years: The Råängen Experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 249-262
Author(s):  
Peter Pelzer ◽  
Roger Hildingsson ◽  
Alice Herrström ◽  
Johannes Stripple
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Experimental Approach ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Research Centers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Situation ◽  
World Class

While traditional forms of urban planning are oriented towards the future, the recent turn towards experimental and challenge-led urban developments is characterized by an overarching presentism. We explore in this article how an experimental approach to urban planning can consider the long-term through setting-up ‘conversations with a future situation.’ In doing so, we draw on a unique experiment: Råängen, a piece of farmland in Lund (Sweden) owned by the Cathedral. The plot is part of Brunnshög, a large urban development program envisioned to accommodate homes, workspaces, and world-class research centers in the coming decades. We trace how Lund Cathedral became an unusual developer involved in ‘planning for thousand years,’ deployed a set of art commissions to allow reflections about values, belief, time, faith, and became committed to play a central role in the development process. The art interventions staged conversations with involved actors as well as publics geographically and temporally far away. The Råängen case illustrates how long-term futures can be fruitfully brought to the present through multiple means of imagination. A key insight for urban planning is how techniques of financial discounting and municipal zoning plans could be complemented with trust in reflective conversations in which questions are prioritized over answers.

Birla milks its employees for the creamiest leaders of the future

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-11
Author(s):  
Geeta Rana ◽  
Alok Kumar Goel
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Learning And Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Unit ◽  
The Future ◽  
World Class ◽  
Art Research ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – This paper aims to describe how Birla creates a strong pipeline of people who are ready to lead the organization in the future. Design/methodology/approach – It explains the origins of the group’s global-manufacturing leadership program (GMLP), the form it takes and the results it has achieved. Findings – It reveals that the program aims to shape the manufacturing leaders of tomorrow through exposing them to world-class technologies and processes, state-of-the-art research and continuous learning and development opportunities. Practical implications – It reveals that of the five GMLP candidates recruited in 2011, three have become independent unit heads, one in China and two in India. Social implications – It outlines the company belief that retaining and developing the skills of its existing workforce is at least as important as importing new talent when faced with increasing competition and growing pressure to cut costs in its main markets. Originality/value – It demonstrates that the program is designed to ensure that each participant is able to understand and anticipate customer needs, influence colleagues without too openly expressing authority and develop and communicate the company’s long-term vision.

scholarly journals A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Elias Bibri
Keyword(s):  
Study Design ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Descriptive Case Study ◽  
Case Study Design ◽  
Sustainable Urbanism ◽  
The Future

AbstractOriginally proposed as an alternative to traditional energy planning methodology in the 1970s, backcasting is increasingly applied in futures studies related to sustainability, as it is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. This futures study is concerned with data-driven smart sustainable urbanism as an instance of sustainable urban development—a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of urban sustainability. This is at the core of backcasting, which typically defines criteria for a desirable (sustainable) future and builds a set of feasible and logical pathways between the state of the future and the present. This paper reviews, discusses, and justifies the methodological framework applied in the futures study. This aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future as a form of transformative change towards sustainability. This paper corroborates that the backcasting approach—as applied in the futures study—is well-suited for long-term urban problems and sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. It also suggests that case study research is the most effective way to underpin and increase the feasibility of future visions. Indeed, the case study approach as a research strategy facilitates the investigation and understanding of the underlying principles in the real-world phenomena involved in the construction of the future vision in the backcasting study. The novelty of this work lies in the integration of a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal. Visionary images of a long-term future based on normative backcasting can spur innovative thinking about and accelerate the movement towards sustainability. The proposed framework serves to help researchers in analyzing, investigating, and developing future models of sustainable urbanism, smart urbanism, and smart sustainable urbanism, as well as to support policymakers and facilitate and guide their actions with respect to transformative changes towards sustainability based on empirical research.

scholarly journals Repositioning People in Creative Futures: A Method to Create Sound Advice with Exploratory Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Guillermo Velasco ◽  
◽  
Rafael Popper ◽  
Ian Miles ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Near Future ◽  
As If

Foresight scenarios are not only useful presentational devices to show that many aspects of the future are open. Scenarios are means for generating advice that helps policymakers initiate actions in the present or near future that will be of long-term significance. Despite the influence that such advice may have on policy decisions, the Foresight literature has paid very little attention to the creation of policy recommendations. Though reports of scenario exercises frequently conclude with lists of recommendations that follow from the study, there is very little explication of the process whereby advice is elicited from the examination of these future scenarios. This paper addresses this gap, examining how the generation of recommendations is related to the development of scenarios within multiple future repositioning workshop settings. It focuses on the fluency and originality of these recommendations, and how this is influenced by repositioning participants in highly transformational scenarios. Repositioning is the process whereby participants are invited to imagine themselves playing roles in hypothetical future contexts, and on that basis to make decisions or devise strategies as if they actually were immersed in these circumstances. The method proposed and the findings of the case study have implications for why and how this future repositioning approach can be incorporated as a ‘key feature’ in the design of Foresight activities. The aim is also to raise awareness of the need for more exploration of Foresight recommendation methodology.

scholarly journals The Importance of Socio-Economic Primary and Secondary Images for Thailand’s Tourism: A Case Study of Swedish Tourists

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Pattaraphongpan Chaiyamart
Keyword(s):  
Significant Role ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Five Factors ◽  
Level Of Satisfaction ◽  
The Future ◽  
Primary Image ◽  
Feeling At Home ◽  
At Home

Swedish tourists constitute one of the most important markets for Thailand’s tourism industry. On average, Swedish tourists stay in Thailand 9 days and spend 101 euros per day. Their image of Thailand plays a significant role in deciding to visit or revisit Thailand. The socio-economic primary image consists of five factors: safety and security, feeling at home during their visit to Thailand, money value, the trip exceeding their expectation, and the ease of making trip arrangements. These are crucial factors that determine the level of satisfaction tourists experience during their trip. These factors also help determine whether the tourists visit Thailand again in the future.

scholarly journals Complementary Cooperation of CCTV and UAV Systems for Tourism Security and Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10693
Author(s):  
Young Dae Ko ◽  
Byung Duk Song
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Operation ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Security Requirements ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Tourist Behavior ◽  
Actual Effectiveness ◽  
Operation Schedule

The meaning of sustainability is very broad and has many pillars such as the economy, environment and society. In the tourism industry, another important pillar is security. Tourism security affects the satisfaction and pleasure of tourists on a trivial level, and life and injuries on a significant level. Thus, unless security is guaranteed, tourists will not be able to fully enjoy the attractions and will not even consider the travel itself. Such tourist behavior has a significant impact on short-term and long-term tourism sustainability. Therefore, to enhance tourism security, many policies and frameworks have been suggested and announced in recent years. However, without efficient guidelines for the installation and operation of security devices, it may be hard to obtain actual effectiveness. To support real implementation of security systems in the tourism industry, this study quantitatively addresses the installation and operation issue of security devices in an optimal manner. A complementary cooperation of Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) is suggested to efficiently monitor the key locations of tourism destinations and improve the security. Two mathematical models are developed to derive the optimal location of CCTVs, and the optimal operation schedule of UAVs over multiple time periods. Security requirements, service range, and budget are considered as realistic constraints. The validity of the models is demonstrated through a realistic case study of Nice, France.

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