Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Probable Maximum Floods in a Tropical Catchment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Shauket Sammen ◽  
Thamer A Mohammed ◽  
Abdul Halim Ghazali ◽  
Lariyah M Sidek ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Hydraulic Infrastructure ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Increased extreme rainfall due to climate change will increase the probable maximum flood (PMF) and pose a severe threat the critical hydraulic infrastructure like hydroelectric and flood protection dams. As the rainfall extremes in tropical regions are highly sensitive to global warming, increase PMF can be much higher in the tropics. A study has been conducted to assess the impact of climate change on PMF in a tropical catchment located in peninsular Malaysia. A lumped hydrological model, Mike NAM, is calibrated and validated with observed climate and inflow data of Tenmengor reservoir, located in the state of Perak of Peninsular Malaysia. Regional climate model projected rainfall is used to generate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for future periods. The hydrological model is used to simulate PMF from PMP estimated for the historical and two future periods, early (2031−2045) and late (2060−2075). The results revealed the NAM model could simulate the river flow with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.74 and root mean square error of 0.51. The application of the model with projected rainfall revealed an increase in PMP by 162 to 507% and 259 to 487% during early and late periods for different return periods ranging from 5 to 1000 years. This would cause an increase in PMF by 48.9% and 122.6% during early and late periods. A large increase in PMF indicates the possibility of devastating floods in the study area due to climate change.

scholarly journals The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wang ◽  
R. McGrath ◽  
T. Semmler ◽  
C. Sweeney ◽  
P. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Suir River Catchment which is located in the south-east of Ireland. In this paper, the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) is driven by different global climate data sets. For the past climate (1961–2000), the model is driven by ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) data as well as by the output of the general circulation models (GCM's) ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. For the future simulation (2021–2060), the model is driven by two GCM scenarios: ECHAM4_B2 and ECHAM5_A2. To investigate the influence of changed future climate on local discharge, the precipitation of the model output is used as input for the HBV hydrological model. The calibration and validation results of our ERA-40 driven present day simulation shows that the HBV model can reproduce the discharge fairly well, except the extreme discharge is systematically underestimated by about 15–20%. Altogether the application of a high resolution regional climate model in connection with a conceptual hydrological model is capable of capturing the local variability of river discharge for present-day climate using boundary values assimilated with observations such as ERA-40 data. However, using GCM data to drive RCA and HBV suggests, that there is still large uncertainty connected with the GCM formulation: For present day climate the validation of the ECHAM4 and ECHAM5 driven simulations indicates stronger discharge compared to the observations due to overprediction of precipitation, especially for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the summer season. Whereas according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario the discharge generally increases – most pronounced in the wet winter time, there are only slight increases in winter and considerable decreases in summer according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario. This also leads to a different behaviour in the evolution of return levels of extreme discharge events: Strong increases according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario and slight decreases according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2133-2155
Author(s):  
Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽  
Marie Pontoppidan ◽  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Chain ◽  
Small Catchments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evdokia Tapoglou ◽  
Anthi Vozinaki ◽  
Ioannis Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussain Alsarraf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Impact

<p>The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period’s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1◦C to 3 ◦C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.</p><p><strong> </strong></p>

Assessing the global risk of climate change to re/insurers using catastrophe models and hazard maps

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Jones ◽  
Emma Raven ◽  
Jane Toothill
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Impact

<p>In 2018 worldwide natural catastrophe losses were estimated at around USD $155 billion, resulting in the fourth-highest insurance payout on sigma records, and in 2020 JBA Risk Management (JBA) estimate 2 billion people will be at risk to inland flooding. By 2100, under a 1.5°C warming scenario, the cost of coastal flooding alone as a result of sea level rise could reach USD $10.2 trillion per year, assuming no further adaptation. It is therefore imperative to understand the impact climate change may have on global flood risk and insured losses in the future.</p><p>The re/insurance industry has an important role to play in providing financial resilience in a changing climate. Although integrating climate science into financial business remains in its infancy, modelling companies like JBA are increasingly developing new data and services to help assess the potential impact of climate change on insurance exposure.</p><p>We will discuss several approaches to incorporating climate change projections with flood risk data using examples from research collaborations and commercial projects. Our case studies will include: (1) building a national-scale climate change flood model through the application of projected changes in river flow, rainfall and sea level to the stochastic event set in the model, and (2) using Global Climate Model data to adjust hydrological inputs driving 2D hydraulic models to develop climate change flood hazard maps.</p><p>These tools provide outputs to meet different needs, and results may sometimes invoke further questions. For example: how can an extreme climate scenario produce lower flood risk than a conservative one? Why may adjacent postcodes' flood risk differ? We will explore the challenges associated with interpreting these results and the potential implications for the re/insurance industry.</p>

scholarly journals Hydrological Climate-Impact Projections for the Rhine River: GCM–RCM Uncertainty and Separate Temperature and Precipitation Effects*

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 697-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Bosshard ◽  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Supply Source ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle, with considerable impacts on water resources. Climate-induced changes in the hydrology of the Rhine River (Europe) are of major importance for the riparian countries, as the Rhine River is the most important European waterway, serves as a freshwater supply source, and is prone to floods and droughts. Here regional climate model data from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is used to drive the hydrological model Precipitation–Runoff–Evapotranspiration–Hydrotope (PREVAH) and to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology in the Rhine basin. Results suggest increases in monthly mean runoff during winter and decreases in summer. At the gauge Cologne and for the period 2070–99 under the A1B scenario of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, projected decreases in summer vary between −9% and −40% depending on the climate model used, while increases in winter are in the range of +4% to +51%. These projected changes in mean runoff are generally consistent with earlier studies, but the derived spread in the runoff projections appears to be larger. It is demonstrated that temperature effects (e.g., through altered snow processes) dominate in the Alpine tributaries, while precipitation effects dominate in the lower portion of the Rhine basin. Analyses are also presented for selected extreme runoff indices.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document