scholarly journals Earthquake forecasting and its verification

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 965-977 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Holliday ◽  
K. Z. Nanjo ◽  
K. F. Tiampo ◽  
J. B. Rundle ◽  
D. L. Turcotte
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Decision Threshold ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Pi Method ◽  
Time Prediction ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Proven Method

Abstract. No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ("hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

The prognostic value of foreshocks - a statistical reevaluation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ester Manganiello ◽  
Marcus Herrmann ◽  
Warner Marzocchi
Keyword(s):  
Physical Process ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Sequence Selection ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Scientific Questions ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>The ability to forecast large earthquakes on short time scales is strongly limited by our understanding of the earthquake nucleation process. Foreshocks represent promising seismic signals that may improve earthquake forecasting as they precede many large earthquakes. However, foreshocks can currently only be identified as such after a large earthquake occurred. This inability is because it remains unclear whether foreshocks represent a different physical process than general seismicity (i.e., mainshocks and aftershocks). Several studies compared foreshock occurrence in real and synthetic catalogs, as simulated with a well-established earthquake triggering/forecasting model called Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) that does not discriminate between foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks. Some of these studies show that the spatial distribution of foreshocks encodes information about the subsequent mainshock magnitude and that foreshock activity is significantly higher than predicted by the ETAS model. These findings attribute a unique underlying physical process to foreshocks, making them potentially useful for forecasting large earthquakes. We reinvestigate these scientific questions using high-quality earthquake catalogs and study carefully the influence of subjective parameter choices and catalog artifacts on the results. For instance, we use data from different regions, account for the short-term catalog incompleteness and its spatial variability, and explore different criteria for sequence selection and foreshock definition.</p>

A Novel Approach to Nanoscale Materials Synthesis Using Industrial Laser Processing of Organosilazane Liquid Precursors

1990 ◽  
Vol 206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongsan D. Xiao ◽  
Peter R. Strutt ◽  
Kenneth E. Gonsalves
Keyword(s):  
Ceramic Powder ◽  
Average Diameter ◽  
Current Approach ◽  
Powder Materials ◽  
Materials Synthesis ◽  
Laser Plume ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Liquid Precursors ◽  
Short Time

ABSTRACTA new approach has been developed for the synthesis of nanoscale ceramic powder materials from liquid organosilazane precursors. This technique, by exploiting fast kinetic chemical and physical reactions, makes it possible to synthesize significant quantities of material in a relatively short time. In the current approach aerosols of a silazane monomer, (CH3SiHNH)n, (n = 3 or 4), of mol. wt. 280–320, are injected into the beam of a cw industrial CO2 laser to obtain nanoscale ceramic powders. Injection of the aerosol into the laser-beam results in a high-temperature plume. Rapid condensation of the molecular precursor species emerging from the laser plume results in the formation of preceramic polymer particles, with an average diameter of 62 nm. One attractive feature of this process is that 70 wt.% of the liquid precursor is converted into nanoscale powders. Another feature is that only a further 10 wt.% loss occurs during post thermal treatment to form the end-product.

scholarly journals Varenna workshop report. Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making

2015 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Warner Marzocchi ◽  
Thomas H. Jordan ◽  
Gordon Woo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Workshop Report ◽  
Poster Sessions ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Open Discussion ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Governmental Institutions ◽  
The Eu

A workshop on <em>Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making</em> was convened in Varenna, Italy, on June 8-11, 2014, under the sponsorship of the EU FP 7 REAKT (Strategies and tools for Real-time EArthquake risK reducTion) project, the Seismic Hazard Center at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The main goal was to survey the interdisciplinary issues of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), including the problems that OEF raises for decision making and risk communication. The workshop was attended by 64 researchers from universities, research centers, and governmental institutions in 11 countries. Participants and the workshop agenda are listed in the appendix.<br />The workshop comprised six topical sessions structured around three main themes: the science of operational earthquake forecasting, decision making in a low-probability environment, and communicating hazard and risk. Each topic was introduced by a moderator and surveyed by a few invited speakers, who were then empaneled for an open discussion. The presentations were followed by poster sessions. During a wrap-up session on the last day, the reporters for each topical session summarized the main points that they had gleaned from the talks and open discussions. This report attempts to distill this workshop record into a brief overview of the workshop themes and to describe the range of opinions expressed during the discussions.

scholarly journals PENYULUHAN DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) KEPADA PELAJAR-PELAJAR DI PERGURUAN KRISTEN METHODIST-2 RANTAUPRAPAT

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Saharnauli Janna Verawaty Simorangkir
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Virus ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Mosquito Vectors ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Dengue Disease ◽  
Agents Of Change ◽  
Agent Of Change ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Activity Method

Abstrak Penyakit demam berdarah merupakan salah satu masalah kesehatan di Kota Medan yang cenderung menimbulkan kekhawatiran masyarakat karena perjalanan penyakitnya cepat dan dapat menyebabkan kematian dalam waktu yang singkat. Penyakit demam berdarah adalah penyakit yang disebabkan oleh virus dengue. Virus ini ditularkan melalui vector nyamuk. Pendekatan pemberantasan demam berdarah yang berwawasan kepedulian masyarakat merupakan salah satu alternatif pendekatan baru dalam rangka pengendalian penyebaran penyakit ini. Tujuan dari kegiatan ini adalah untuk memberikan penjelasan kepada pelajar-pelajar yang diharapkan dapat menjadi agent of change di lingkungannya dalam pemberantasan penyakit DBD ini. Metode kegiatan ini dilaksanakan dalam bentuk penyuluah, tanya jawab dan games. Kegiatan ini dinilai cukup berhasil. Indikator keberhasilannya adalah berdasarkan antusiasme peserta untuk bertanya dan feedback dari peserta yang menyatakan penyuluhan ini dinilai menarik dan bermanfaat. Kesimpulan dari kegiatan ini adalah melalui keilmuan yang dimiliki dapat digunakan untuk membantu memberikan pemahaman mengenai penyakit-penyakit kepada masyarakat, yang pada akhirnya dapat mendorong partisipasi masyarakat dalam pencegahan penularan dan pertambahan kasus-kasus penyakit tertentu di masyarakat Abstract Dengue fever is one of the health problems in Medan City which tends to cause public concern because the disease progresses quickly and can cause death in a short time. Dengue fever is a disease caused by the dengue virus. This virus is transmitted by mosquito vectors. The approach to eradicating dengue fever with a public concern is an alternative to a new approach to control the spread of this disease. The purpose of this activity is to provide explanations to students who are expected to become agents of change in their environment in eradicating this dengue disease. This activity method was carried out in the form of counseling, question and answer and games. This activity was considered quite successful. The success indicator was based on the enthusiasm of the participants to asked questions and feedback from the participants who stated that this counseling was considered interesting and useful. The conclusion of this activity was that through the knowledge that is owned it can be used to help provide an understanding of diseases to the community, which in turn can encourage community participation in preventing the transmission of certain diseases in the community.

“The Death of Liberal Internationalism?: Donald Trump, Walmart, and the Two Koreas”

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-197
Author(s):  
Mitchell B. Lerner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Liberal Internationalism ◽  
The People ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
Short Time

The election of Donald J. Trump unsettled many areas of U.S. foreign policy, but few more than the nation’s relationship with Korea. This article argues that the Trump administration’s vision for the world represents a stark break from the tradition of liberal internationalism and instead seeks to take the United States down a path that reflects the modern business practices of giant American corporations. A suitable label for this vision, as the following pages will show, is “Walmart unilateralism.” This framework abandons the traditional American policies of nation building and alliances based on shared ideological values. Instead, it embraces a more short-term approach rooted in financial bottom lines, flexible alliances and rivalries, and the ruthless exploitation of power hierarchies. This new approach, this article concludes, may dramatically transform the American relationship with Korea. Walmart unilateralism in Korea almost certainly will have some short-time positive ramifications for the United States, but its larger failure to consider the history and values of the people living on the Korean Peninsula may generate serious long-term problems for the future experience of the United States in the region.

Radiotechnical Signal Processing Techniques for Polymer Materials Structure Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 381 ◽  
pp. 59-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Klimentievitch Kachanov ◽  
Igor Vacheslavovitch Sokolov ◽  
Serguei Vladimirovitch Lebedev ◽  
Vladimir Vladimirovitch Pervushin
Keyword(s):  
Structure Analysis ◽  
Polymer Materials ◽  
Material Structure ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Structure Assessment ◽  
Processing Techniques ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Signal Processing Techniques ◽  
Structure Inhomogeneity

Paper describes new approach to material structure analysis by means of ultrasound probing. Short-time Fourier transform and time-frequency analysis used to determine structure inhomogeneity present and perform structure condition assessment. Experimental results show possibilities of polymer materials structure assessment.

scholarly journals Reduction Method for Mobile Laser Scanning Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wioleta Błaszczak-Bąk ◽  
Zoltan Koppanyi ◽  
Charles Toth
Keyword(s):  
Data Reduction ◽  
Point Cloud ◽  
Laser Scanning ◽  
Digital Terrain Model ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Terrain Model ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Airborne Laser ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Mls Method

Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) technology acquires a huge volume of data in a very short time. In many cases, it is reasonable to reduce the size of the dataset with eliminating points in such a way that the datasets, after reduction, meet specific optimization criteria. Various methods exist to decrease the size of point cloud, such as raw data reduction, Digital Terrain Model (DTM) generalization or generation of regular grid. These methods have been successfully applied on data captured from Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) and Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), however, they have not been fully analyzed on data captured by an MLS system. The paper presents our new approach, called the Optimum Single MLS Dataset method (OptD-single-MLS), which is an algorithm for MLS data reduction. The tests were carried out in two variants: (1) for raw sensory measurements and (2) for a georeferenced 3D point cloud. We found that the OptD-single-MLS method provides a good solution in both variants; therefore, the choice of the reduction variant depends only on the user.

NEW STRUCTURAL SYSTEM FOR EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT DESIGN

2013 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 1350013 ◽  
Author(s):  
XILIN LU ◽  
YUANJUN MAO ◽  
YUN CHEN ◽  
JINGJING LIU ◽  
YING ZHOU
Keyword(s):  
Basic Function ◽  
Shaking Table ◽  
Original Position ◽  
Structural System ◽  
Coupling Beams ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Resilient Design ◽  
Rubber Bearings ◽  
Energy Dissipation Devices ◽  
Short Time

The concept of self-centering structure and replaceable structural member or fuse is a new approach of earthquake resilient structural design. The new structural system is not only capable of preventing from failure of the structure and life safety of the occupants during earthquakes, but also quickly restoring its basic function in a short time following earthquakes. Restoring the original position through self-weight or pre-stressing forces, this kind of structures is defined as a rocking or self-centering structure. The replaceable elements of the other new kind of structural system, which includes coupling beams, energy dissipation devices, and rubber bearings and so on, are designed to be inelastic or failure, like a fuse, and to protect the main structure from damage in the region of high seismicity. The authors of this paper will report three different tests on new earthquake resilient structures, which are shaking table tests on a self-centering RC frame, quasi-static cyclic tests on RC wall with replaceable coupling beams and the ones with replaceable foot parts. All of the three new kind structural systems present an efficient resilient ability under severe horizontal forces in the tests.

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