scholarly journals Review article "On the origins of decadal climate variability: a network perspective"

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 559-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Tsonis ◽  
K. L. Swanson
Keyword(s):  
Collective Behavior ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Review Article ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Synchronous State ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
Climate Networks

Abstract. This review is a synthesis of work spanning the last 25 yr. It is largely based on the use of climate networks to identify climate subsystems/major modes and to subsequently study how their collective behavior explains decadal variability. The central point is that a network of coupled nonlinear subsystems may at times begin to synchronize. If during synchronization the coupling between the subsystems increases, the synchronous state may, at some coupling strength threshold, be destroyed shifting climate to a new regime. This climate shift manifests itself as a change in global temperature trend. This mechanism, which is consistent with the theory of synchronized chaos, appears to be a very robust mechanism of the climate system. It is found in the instrumental records, in forced and unforced climate simulations, as well as in proxy records spanning several centuries.

Multi-decadal climate variability in the tropical stratosphere coupled to the Pacific

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Rolando R. Garcia ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Decadal Climate

<p><span>Recent studies have noted that tropical mid-stratospheric ozone decreased in the 1990s and has remained persistently low since. Current analyses suggest that these observations are linked to dynamical processes rather than being chemically-driven, although this has not been fully explored. Using measurements and chemistry-climate model simulations, we show that 50 ± 10% of these observed trends can be accounted for through multi-decadal variability in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) tied to the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO), via dynamical and chemical couplings. Moreover, accounting for this low frequency variability in the BDC can also help interpret previous observationally-derived changes in that circulation since year 1979. Overall, these findings demonstrate strong links between stratosphere-troposphere variability at decadal time scales and their potential importance for future ozone recovery detection.</span></p>

scholarly journals Multiple Equilibria as a Possible Mechanism for Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8907-8922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Born ◽  
Juliette Mignot ◽  
Thomas F. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract Decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic has received increased attention in recent years, because modeling results suggest predictability of heat content and circulation indices several years ahead. However, determining the applicability of these results in the real world is challenging because of an incomplete understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Here, the authors show that recent attempts to reconstruct the decadal variations in one of the dominant circulation systems of the region, the subpolar gyre (SPG), are not always consistent. A coherent picture is partly recovered by a simple conceptual model solely forced by reanalyzed surface air temperatures. This confirms that surface heat flux indeed plays a leading role for this type of variability, as has been suggested in previous studies. The results further suggest that large variations in the SPG correspond to the crossing of a bifurcation point that is predicted from idealized experiments and an analytical solution of the model used herein. Performance of this conceptual model is tested against a statistical stochastic model. Hysteresis and the existence of two stable modes of the SPG circulation shape its response to forcing by atmospheric temperatures. The identification of the essential dynamics and the reduction to a minimal model of SPG variability provide a quantifiable basis and a framework for future studies on decadal climate variability and predictability.

scholarly journals Impacts of External Forcing on the Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Simulations*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 5389-5405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Song ◽  
Yongqiang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Radiative Flux ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Decadal Time Scale ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Decadal climate variability is usually regarded as an internal variability in the climate system. However, using the coupled simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), it is demonstrated that the external radiative forcing plays an important role in modulating decadal variability of the global mean surface air temperature (SAT). In historical runs, the standard deviations of the global mean SAT exhibit robust increases relative to preindustrial runs, indicating that external forcing acts on decadal variability of the global mean SAT through enhancing amplitude and modulating phase. By comparing model results using different external forcing agents, it is found that the natural forcing agent has the strongest impact on the decadal time scale. Every type of simulation (i.e., the preindustrial, historical, natural forcing, and anthropogenic forcing runs) from almost all the CMIP5 models exhibits a high correlation between the net shortwave (SW) radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the global mean SAT with a 13-month lag. However, after taking the multimodel ensemble mean for the TOA SW radiative flux and the SAT, respectively, the correlations from the external forcing runs are much higher than those from preindustrial runs. This is because that the decadal SAT anomalies from multiple models cancel each other out in the preindustrial runs without external forcing but generally follow decadal evolution of the external forcing with a 13-month lag. The most significant regional responses to external forcing are found in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, although with different physical mechanisms for the natural and greenhouse gas forcing agents.

scholarly journals Multiyear Variability in the Tasman Sea and Impacts on Southern Hemisphere Climate in CMIP5 Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4413-4427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine T. Y. Chung ◽  
Scott B. Power ◽  
Agus Santoso ◽  
Guomin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Tasman Sea ◽  
Decadal Climate

Naturally occurring multiyear to decadal variability is evident in rainfall, temperature, severe weather, and flood frequency around the globe. It is therefore important to understand the cause of this variability and the extent to which it can be predicted. Here internally generated decadal climate variability and its predictability potential in an ensemble of CMIP5 models are assessed. Global hot spots of subsurface ocean decadal variability are identified, revealing variability in the southern Tasman Sea that is coherent with variability in much of the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere. It is found that subsurface temperature variability in the southern Tasman Sea primarily arises in response to preceding changes in Southern Hemisphere winds. This variability is multiyear to decadal in character and is coherent with surface temperature in parts of the Southern Hemisphere up to several years later. This provides some degree of potential predictability to surface temperature in the southern Tasman Sea and surrounding regions. A few models exhibit significant correlation between subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea and zonally averaged precipitation south of 50°S; however, the multimodel mean does not exhibit any significant correlation between subsurface variability and precipitation. Models that exhibit stronger subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea also have a stronger interdecadal Pacific oscillation signal in the Pacific.

scholarly journals Multi-decadal climate variability in the Antarctic region and global change

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 617-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Simmonds ◽  
David A. Jones ◽  
David J. Walland
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Antarctic Region ◽  
Decadal Climate

The characteristics of, and the mechanisms causing, multi-decadal variability are currently receiving much attention. This undertaking is particularly challenging in the sub-Antarctic region because of the paucity of data, and the complexity of the governing physical processes. In this paper we report on aspects of high-southern-latitude variability which appear in the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts twice-daily analyses for the period 1 January 1980 to 31 August 1996 and in the results of global climate model experiments. We show that the number of cyclone positions in the 50-70°S latitude band exhibits considerable interannual variability, as well as changes on longer time-scales. The seasonal distribution of cyclones is linked with the “semi-annual oscillation". We show that the variability of this phenomenon in a 1000 year run of the GFDL coupled model shows “red” characteristics fand on decadal time-scales is similar to that displayed in the available observationsi. The interaction with the ocean and sea ice is siressed as an important factor in determining the nature of climate variability in sub-Antarctic latitudes.

scholarly journals The Decadal Climate Prediction Project

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
George J. Boer ◽  
Douglas M . Smith ◽  
Christophe Cassou ◽  
Francisco Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Decadal Prediction ◽  
Science And Society ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Shifts ◽  
Component C ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Generation

Abstract. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from CMIP5 and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as part of CMIP6. The DCPP consists of three Components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, dissemination and analysis of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the "hiatus", volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the Components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.

scholarly journals Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (45) ◽  
pp. 11543-11548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Altman ◽  
Olga N. Ukhvatkina ◽  
Alexander M. Omelko ◽  
Martin Macek ◽  
Tomas Plener ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Disturbance Frequency ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
Instrumental Records

Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring–based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33–45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

scholarly journals Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 641-656 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Grove ◽  
J. Zinke ◽  
F. Peeters ◽  
W. Park ◽  
T. Scheufen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Western Indian Ocean ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract. Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008) to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be taken into account when considering water resource management under a future warming climate.

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