scholarly journals Wavelet analysis of the singular spectral reconstructed time series to study the imprints of solar–ENSO–geomagnetic activity on Indian climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 361-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Lakshmi Sunkara ◽  
Rama Krishna Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
Reconstructed Time Series ◽  
Indian Temperature

Abstract. To study the imprints of the solar–ENSO–geomagnetic activity on the Indian subcontinent, we have applied singular spectral analysis (SSA) and wavelet analysis to the tree-ring temperature variability record from the Western Himalayas. Other data used in the present study are the solar sunspot number (SSN), geomagnetic indices (aa index), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the common time period of 1876–2000. Both SSA and wavelet spectral analyses reveal the presence of 5–7-year short-term ENSO variations and the 11-year solar cycle, indicating the possible combined influences of solar–geomagnetic activities and ENSO on the Indian temperature. Another prominent signal corresponding to 33-year periodicity in the tree-ring record suggests the Sun-temperature variability link probably induced by changes in the basic state of the Earth's atmosphere. In order to complement the above findings, we performed a wavelet analysis of SSA reconstructed time series, which agrees well with our earlier results and increases the signal-to-noise ratio, thereby showing the strong influence of solar–geomagnetic activity and ENSO throughout the entire period. The solar flares are considered responsible for causing the atmospheric circulation patterns. The net effect of solar–geomagnetic processes on the temperature record might suggest counteracting influences on shorter (about 5–6-year) and longer (about 11–12-year) timescales. The present analyses suggest that the influence of solar activities on the Indian temperature variability operates in part indirectly through coupling of ENSO on multilateral timescales. The analyses, hence, provide credible evidence of teleconnections of tropical Pacific climatic variability and Indian climate ranging from inter-annual to decadal timescales and also suggest the possible role of exogenic triggering in reorganizing the global Earth–ocean–atmospheric systems.

scholarly journals Wavelet analysis of the singular spectral reconstructed time series to study the imprints of Solar–ENSO–Geomagnetic activity on Indian climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 1447-1479
Author(s):  
S. Sri Lakshmi ◽  
R. K. Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Reconstructed Time Series

Abstract. In order to study the imprints of solar–ENSO–geomagnetic activity on the Indian Subcontinent, we have applied the Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) and wavelet analysis to the tree ring temperature variability record from the western Himalayas. The data used in the present study are the Solar Sunspot Number (SSN), Geomagnetic Indices (aa Index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tree ring temperature record from western Himalayas (WH), for the period of 1876–2000. The SSA and wavelet spectra reveal the presence of 5 years short term ENSO variations to 11 year solar cycle indicating the influence of both the solar–geomagnetic and ENSO imprints in the tree ring data. The presence of 33-year cycle periodicity suggests the Sun-temperature variability probably involving the induced changes in the basic state of the atmosphere. Our wavelet analysis for the SSA reconstructed time series agrees with our previous results and also enhance the amplitude of the signals by removing the noise and showing a strong influence of solar–geomagnetic and ENSO patterns throughout the record. The solar flares are considered to be responsible for cause in the circulation patterns in the atmosphere. The net effect of solar–geomagnetic processes on temperature record thus appears to be the result of counteracting influences on shorter (about 5–6 years) and longer (about 11–12 years) time scales. The present analysis thus suggests that the influence of solar processes on Indian temperature variability operates in part indirectly through ENSO, but on more than one time scale. The analyses hence provides credible evidence for teleconnections of tropical pacific climatic variability with Indian climate ranging from interannual-decadal time scales and also demonstrate the possible role of exogenic triggering in reorganizing the global earth–ocean–atmospheric systems.

scholarly journals The correlation between three teleconnections and leptospirosis incidence in the Kandy District, Sri Lanka, 2004–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. D. B. Ehelepola ◽  
Kusalika Ariyaratne ◽  
A. M. S. M. C. M. Aththanayake ◽  
Kamalanath Samarakoon ◽  
H. M. Arjuna Thilakarathna
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Enso Modoki ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Teleconnection Indices ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
Time Lagged

Abstract Background Leptospirosis is a bacterial zoonosis. Leptospirosis incidence (LI) in Sri Lanka is high. Infected animals excrete leptospires into the environment via their urine. Survival of leptospires in the environment until they enter into a person and several other factors that influence leptospirosis transmission are dependent upon local weather. Past studies show that rainfall and other weather parameters are correlated with the LI in the Kandy district, Sri Lanka. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are teleconnections known to be modulating rainfall in Sri Lanka. There is a severe dearth of published studies on the correlations between indices of these teleconnections and LI. Methods We acquired the counts of leptospirosis cases notified and midyear estimated population data of the Kandy district from 2004 to 2019, respectively, from weekly epidemiology reports of the Ministry of Health and Department of Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka. We estimated weekly and monthly LI of Kandy. We obtained weekly and monthly teleconnection indices data for the same period from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the USA and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). We performed wavelet time series analysis to determine correlations with lag periods between teleconnection indices and LI time series. Then, we did time-lagged detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to verify wavelet analysis results and to find the magnitudes of the correlations detected. Results Wavelet analysis displayed indices of ENSO, IOD, and ENSO Modoki were correlated with the LI of Kandy with 1.9–11.5-month lags. Indices of ENSO showed two correlation patterns with Kandy LI. Time-lagged DCCA results show all indices of the three teleconnections studied were significantly correlated with the LI of Kandy with 2–5-month lag periods. Conclusions Results of the two analysis methods generally agree indicating that ENSO and IOD modulate LI in Kandy by modulating local rainfall and probably other weather parameters. We recommend further studies about the ENSO Modoki and LI correlation in Sri Lanka. Monitoring for extreme teleconnection events and enhancing preventive measures during lag periods can blunt LI peaks that may follow.

scholarly journals Wavelet analysis of low-frequency variability in oak tree-ring chronologies from east Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asok K. Sen ◽  
Zoltán Kern
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
East Central Europe ◽  
East Central ◽  
Oak Tree

AbstractThis study investigates the low-frequency (interannual and longer period) variability in three hydroclimatic records from east Central Europe. Two of these records consist of climate proxies derived from oak-tree rings in Bakta forest, and Balaton Highlands in Hungary, for the time interval 1783-2003. The third record consists of homogenized instrumental precipitation data from Budapest, Hungary, from 1842 to 2003. Using wavelet analysis, the three time series are analyzed and compared with one another. It is found that all three time series exhibit strong interannual variability at the 2-4 years timescales, and these variations occur intermittently throughout the length of each record. Significant variability is also observed in all the records at decadal timescales, but these variations persist for only two to three cycles. Wavelet coherence among the various time series is used to explore their time-varying correlation. The results reveal significant coherence at the 2-4 years band. At these timescales, the climatic variations are correlated to the tree-ring signal over different time intervals with changing phase. Increased (decreased) contribution of large-scale stratiform precipitation offers a potential explanation for enhanced (faded) coherence at the interannual timescale. Strong coherence was also observed occasionally at decadal timescales, however these coherences did not appear uniformly. These results reinforce the earlier assertion that neither the strength nor the rank of the similarity of the local hydroclimate signals is stable throughout the past two centuries.

scholarly journals Temperature variability at Dürres Maar, Germany during the Migration Period and at High Medieval Times, inferred from stable carbon isotopes of <i>Sphagnum</i> cellulose

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1011-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Moschen ◽  
N. Kühl ◽  
S. Peters ◽  
H. Vos ◽  
A. Lücke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Middle Ages ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Stable Carbon ◽  
Early Middle Ages ◽  
Migration Period ◽  
Kettle Hole ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Late Roman

Abstract. This paper presents a high resolution reconstruction of local growing season temperature (GST) anomalies at Dürres Maar, Germany, spanning the last two millennia. The GST anomalies were derived from a stable carbon isotope time series of cellulose chemically extracted from Sphagnum leaves (δ13Ccellulose) separated from a kettle-hole peat deposit of several metres thickness. The temperature reconstruction is based on the Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose/temperature dependency observed in calibration studies. Reconstructed GST anomalies show considerable centennial and decadal scale variability. A cold and presumably wet phase with below-average temperature is reconstructed between the 4th and 7th century AD which is in accordance with the so called European Migration Period, marking the transition from the Late Roman Period to the Early Middle Ages. At High Medieval Times, the amplitude in the reconstructed temperature variability is most likely overestimated; nevertheless, above-average temperatures are obvious during this time span, which are followed by a temperature decrease. On the contrary, a pronounced Late Roman Climate Optimum, often described as similarly warm or even warmer as medieval times, could not be detected. The temperature signal of the Little Ice Age (LIA) is not preserved in Dürres Maar due to considerable peat cutting that takes place in the first half of the 19th century. The local GST anomalies show a remarkable agreement to northern hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring datasets and are also in accordance with climate reconstructions on the basis of lake sediments, glacier advances and retreats, and historical datasets. Most notably, e.g., during the Early Middle Ages and at High Medieval Times, temperatures were neither low nor high in general. Rather high frequency temperature variability with multiple narrow intervals of below- and above-average temperatures at maximum lasting a few decades are reconstructed. Especially the agreements between our estimated GST anomalies and temperature reconstructions derived from tree-ring chronologies indicate the great potential of Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose time series from peat deposits for palaeoclimate research. This is particularly the case, given that a quantitative δ13Ccellulose/temperature relationship has been found for several Sphagnum species. Although the time resolution of Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose datasets certainly wouldn't reach the annual resolution of tree-ring data, reconstructions of past temperature variability on the basis of this proxy hold one particular advantage: often due to relatively high peat accumulation rates, especially in kettle-hole bogs accumulated on temperate latitudes over periods of up to several millennia, they allow extending temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring series into the past to enhance our knowledge of natural climate variability during the Holocene.

scholarly journals Temperature variability at Dürres Maar, Germany during the migration period and at high medieval times, inferred from stable carbon isotopes of Sphagnum cellulose

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 535-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Moschen ◽  
N. Kühl ◽  
S. Peters ◽  
H. Vos ◽  
A. Lücke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Middle Ages ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Stable Carbon ◽  
Migration Period ◽  
Kettle Hole ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions

Abstract. This paper presents a high resolution reconstruction of local growing season temperature (GST) anomalies at Dürres Maar, Germany, spanning the last two millennia. The GST anomalies were derived from a stable carbon isotope time series of cellulose chemically extracted from Sphagnum leaves (δ13Ccellulose) separated from a kettle-hole peat deposit of several metres thickness. The temperature reconstruction is based on the Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose /temperature dependency observed in calibration studies. Reconstructed GST anomalies show considerable centennial and decadal scale variability. A cold and presumably also wet phase with below-average temperature is reconstructed between the 4th and 7th century AD which is in accordance with the so called European Migration Period marking the transition from the Late Roman Period to the Early Middle Ages. At High Medieval Times above-average temperatures are obvious followed by a temperature decrease. On the contrary, a pronounced Late Roman Climate Optimum, often described as similar warm or even warmer as medieval times, could not be detected. The temperature signal of the Little Ice Age (LIA) is not preserved in Dürres Maar due to considerable peat cutting that takes place in the first half of the 19th century. The local GST anomalies show a remarkable agreement to northern hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring data sets and are also in accordance with climate reconstructions on the basis of lake sediments, glacier advances and retreats, and historical data sets. Most notably, e.g. during the Early Middle Ages and at High Medieval Times, temperatures were not low or high in general. Rather high frequency temperature variability with multiple narrow intervals of below- and above-average temperatures at maximum lasting a few decades are reconstructed. Especially the agreements between our estimated GST anomalies and the NH temperature reconstructions derived from tree-ring chronologies indicate the great potential of Sphagnum leaves δ13Ccellulose time series from peat deposits for palaeoclimate research. This is particularly the case, given that a quantitative δ13Ccellulose/temperature relationship has been found for several Sphagnum species. Although the time resolution of Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose data sets certainly wouldn't reach the annual resolution of tree-ring data, reconstructions of past temperature variability on the basis of this proxy hold one particular advantage: due to often relatively high peat accumulation rates, especially in kettle-hole bogs accumulated on temperate latitudes over periods of up to several millennia, they allow extending temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring series into the past to enhance our knowledge of natural climate variability during the Holocene.

scholarly journals How to correctly apply Gaussian statistics in a non-stationary climate?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhold Steinacker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Filter Methods ◽  
Periodic Time Series ◽  
Past Data

AbstractTime series with a significant trend, as is now being the case for the temperature in the course of climate change, need a careful approach for statistical evaluations. Climatological means and moments are usually taken from past data which means that the statistics does not fit to actual data anymore. Therefore, we need to determine the long-term trend before comparing actual data with the actual climate. This is not an easy task, because the determination of the signal—a climatic trend—is influenced by the random scatter of observed data. Different filter methods are tested upon their quality to obtain realistic smoothed trends of observed time series. A new method is proposed, which is based on a variational principle. It outperforms other conventional methods of smoothing, especially if periodic time series are processed. This new methodology is used to test, how extreme the temperature of 2018 in Vienna actually was. It is shown that the new annual temperature record of 2018 is not too extreme, if we consider the positive trend of the last decades. Also, the daily mean temperatures of 2018 are not found to be really extreme according to the present climate. The real extreme of the temperature record of Vienna—and many other places around the world—is the strongly increased positive temperature trend over the last years.

scholarly journals Relationships between Southeast Australian Temperature Anomalies and Large-Scale Climate Drivers

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1395-1412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre O. Fierro ◽  
Lance M. Leslie
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Tasman Sea ◽  
Australian Continent

Abstract Over the past century, particularly after the 1960s, observations of mean maximum temperatures reveal an increasing trend over the southeastern quadrant of the Australian continent. Correlation analysis of seasonally averaged mean maximum temperature anomaly data for the period 1958–2012 is carried out for a representative group of 10 stations in southeast Australia (SEAUS). For the warm season (November–April) there is a positive relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and an inverse relationship with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) for most stations. For the cool season (May–October), most stations exhibit similar relationships with the AAO, positive correlations with the dipole mode index (DMI), and marginal inverse relationships with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the PDO. However, for both seasons, the blocking index (BI, as defined by M. Pook and T. Gibson) in the Tasman Sea (160°E) clearly is the dominant climate mode affecting maximum temperature variability in SEAUS with negative correlations in the range from r = −0.30 to −0.65. These strong negative correlations arise from the usual definition of BI, which is positive when blocking high pressure systems occur over the Tasman Sea (near 45°S, 160°E), favoring the advection of modified cooler, higher-latitude maritime air over SEAUS. A point-by-point correlation with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs), principal component analysis, and wavelet power spectra support the relationships with ENSO and DMI. Notably, the analysis reveals that the maximum temperature variability of one group of stations is explained primarily by local factors (warmer near-coastal SSTs), rather than teleconnections with large-scale drivers.

Following the infection dynamics of the tropical trematode Oligogonotylus mayae in its intermediate and definitive hosts for 13 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L. May-Tec ◽  
N.A. Herrera-Castillo ◽  
V.M. Vidal-Martínez ◽  
M.L. Aguirre-Macedo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fish Host ◽  
Snail Host ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Infection Parameters ◽  
Over Time

Abstract We present a time series of 13 years (2003–2016) of continuous monthly data on the prevalence and mean abundance of the trematode Oligogonotylus mayae for all the hosts involved in its life cycle. We aimed to determine whether annual (or longer than annual) environmental fluctuations affect these infection parameters of O. mayae in its intermediate snail host Pyrgophorus coronatus, and its second and definitive fish host Mayaheros urophthalmus from the Celestun tropical coastal lagoon, Yucatan, Mexico. Fourier time series analysis was used to identify infection peaks over time, and cross-correlation among environmental forcings and infection parameters. Our results suggest that the transmission of O. mayae in all its hosts was influenced by the annual patterns of temperature, salinity and rainfall. However, there was a biannual accumulation of metacercarial stages of O. mayae in M. urophthalmus, apparently associated with the temporal range of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (five years) and the recovery of the trematode population after a devasting hurricane. Taking O. mayae as an example of what could be happening to other trematodes, it is becoming clear that environmental forcings acting at long-term temporal scales affect the population dynamics of these parasites.

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