scholarly journals Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lettie A. Roach ◽  
Samuel M. Dean ◽  
James A. Renwick
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Low Concentration ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract. The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 27 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean – sea ice model show that over-estimation of low-concentration cover is partially determined by choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime.

scholarly journals Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lettie A. Roach ◽  
Samuel M. Dean ◽  
James A. Renwick
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Low Concentration ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract. The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, particularly at high concentrations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 40 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Separating models with and without an explicit lateral melt term, we find that inclusion of lateral melt may account for overestimation of low-concentration cover. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean–sea ice model show that choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme can also impact representation of loose ice. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime in many models.

scholarly journals Impact of surface wind biases on the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget in climate models

2016 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 60-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Lecomte ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
P.R. Holland ◽  
P. Uotila ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Antarctic

scholarly journals DASSO: a data assimilation system for the Southern Ocean that utilizes both sea-ice concentration and thickness observations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hao Luo ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Longjiang Mu ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Nerger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract To improve Antarctic sea-ice simulations and estimations, an ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Southern Ocean (DASSO) was developed based on a regional sea ice–ocean coupled model, which assimilates sea-ice thickness (SIT) together with sea-ice concentration (SIC) derived from satellites. To validate the performance of DASSO, experiments were conducted from 15 April to 14 October 2016. Generally, assimilating SIC and SIT can suppress the overestimation of sea ice in the model-free run. Besides considering uncertainties in the operational atmospheric forcing data, a covariance inflation procedure in data assimilation further improves the simulation of Antarctic sea ice, especially SIT. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating sea-ice observations in reconstructing the state of Antarctic sea ice, but also highlight the necessity of more reasonable error estimation for the background as well as the observation.

scholarly journals Changes of the Arctic marginal ice zone during the satellite era

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1971-1984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Rolph ◽  
Daniel L. Feltham ◽  
David Schröder
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Upper And Lower Bounds ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Marginal Ice Zone ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract. Many studies have shown a decrease in Arctic sea ice extent. It does not logically follow, however, that the extent of the marginal ice zone (MIZ), here defined as the area of the ocean with ice concentrations from 15 % to 80 %, is also changing. Changes in the MIZ extent has implications for the level of atmospheric and ocean heat and gas exchange in the area of partially ice-covered ocean and for the extent of habitat for organisms that rely on the MIZ, from primary producers like sea ice algae to seals and birds. Here, we present, for the first time, an analysis of satellite observations of pan-Arctic averaged MIZ extent. We find no trend in the MIZ extent over the last 40 years from observations. Our results indicate that the constancy of the MIZ extent is the result of an observed increase in width of the MIZ being compensated for by a decrease in the perimeter of the MIZ as it moves further north. We present simulations from a coupled sea ice–ocean mixed layer model using a prognostic floe size distribution, which we find is consistent with, but poorly constrained by, existing satellite observations of pan-Arctic MIZ extent. We provide seasonal upper and lower bounds on MIZ extent based on the four satellite-derived sea ice concentration datasets used. We find a large and significant increase (>50 %) in the August and September MIZ fraction (MIZ extent divided by sea ice extent) for the Bootstrap and OSI-450 observational datasets, which can be attributed to the reduction in total sea ice extent. Given the results of this study, we suggest that references to “rapid changes” in the MIZ should remain cautious and provide a specific and clear definition of both the MIZ itself and also the property of the MIZ that is changing.

scholarly journals Erroneous sea-ice concentration retrieval in the East Antarctic

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (76pt2) ◽  
pp. 201-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoi Ming Lam ◽  
Gunnar Spreen ◽  
Georg Heygster ◽  
Christian Melsheimer ◽  
Neal W. Young
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Microwave Remote Sensing ◽  
Atmospheric Effects ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Microwave Brightness Temperature ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Optical Images ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Retrieval Algorithms ◽  
Landfast Sea Ice

ABSTRACTLarge discrepancies have been observed between satellite-derived sea-ice concentrations(IC) from passive microwave remote sensing and those derived from optical images at several locations in the East Antarctic, between February and April 2014. These artefacts, that resemble polynyas in the IC maps, appear in areas where optical satellite data show that there is landfast sea ice. The IC datasets and the corresponding retrieval algorithms are investigated together with microwave brightness temperature, air temperature, snowfall and bathymetry to understand the failure of the IC retrieval. The artefacts are the result of the application of weather filters in retrieval algorithms. These filters use the 37 and 19 GHz channels to correct for atmospheric effects on the retrieval. These channels show significant departures from typical ranges when the artefacts occur. A melt–refreeze cycle with associated snow metamorphism is proposed as the most likely cause. Together, the areas of the artefacts account for up to 0.5% of the Antarctic sea-ice area and thus cause a bias in sea-IC time series. In addition, erroneous sea ICs can adversely affect shipping operations.

scholarly journals Tropical Pacific SST Drivers of Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Trends

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 8931-8948 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariaan Purich ◽  
Matthew H. England ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ross Sea ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract A strengthening of the Amundsen Sea low from 1979 to 2013 has been shown to largely explain the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration in the eastern Ross Sea and decrease in the Bellingshausen Sea. Here it is shown that while these changes are not generally seen in freely running coupled climate model simulations, they are reproduced in simulations of two independent coupled climate models: one constrained by observed sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the other by observed surface wind stress in the tropics. This analysis confirms previous results and strengthens the conclusion that the phase change in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation from positive to negative over 1979–2013 contributed to the observed strengthening of the Amundsen Sea low and the associated pattern of Antarctic sea ice change during this period. New support for this conclusion is provided by simulated trends in spatial patterns of sea ice concentrations that are similar to those observed. These results highlight the importance of accounting for teleconnections from low to high latitudes in both model simulations and observations of Antarctic sea ice variability and change.

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