scholarly journals Dam type and topological position govern ice-marginal lake area change in Alaska and NW Canada between 1984 and 2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brianna Rick ◽  
Daniel McGrath ◽  
William Armstrong ◽  
Scott W. McCoy
Keyword(s):  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Historic Change ◽  
Topological Position

Abstract. Ice-marginal lakes impact glacier mass balance, water resources, and ecosystem dynamics, and can produce catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) via sudden drainage. Multitemporal inventories of ice-marginal lakes are a critical first step in understanding the drivers of historic change, predicting future lake evolution, and assessing GLOF hazards. Here, we use Landsat-era satellite imagery and supervised classification to semi-automatically delineate lake outlines for four ~5 year time periods between 1984 and 2019 in Alaska and northwest Canada. Overall, ice-marginal lakes in the region have grown in total number (+176 lakes, 36 % increase) and area (+467 km2, 57 % increase) between the time periods of 1984–1988 and 2016–2019. However, changes in lake numbers and area were notably unsteady and nonuniform. We demonstrate that lake area changes are connected to dam type (moraine, bedrock, ice, or supraglacial) and topological position (proglacial, detached, unconnected, ice, or supraglacial), with important differences in lake behavior between the sub-groups. In strong contrast to all other dam types, ice-dammed lakes decreased in number (−9, 13 % decrease) and area (−56 km2, 43 % decrease), while moraine-dammed lakes increased (+59, 28 % and +468 km2, 85 % for number and area, respectively), a faster rate than the average when considering all dam types together. Proglacial lakes experienced the largest area changes and rate of change out of any topological position throughout the period of study. By tracking individual lakes through time and categorizing lakes by dam type, subregion, and topological position, we are able to parse trends that would otherwise be aliased if these characteristics were not considered. This work highlights the importance of such lake characterization when performing ice-marginal lake inventories, and provides insight into the physical processes driving recent ice-marginal lake evolution.

scholarly journals GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 813-827 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer
Keyword(s):  
Web Of Science ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Published Research

Abstract. Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) – specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups – is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979–2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

scholarly journals GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research of glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer
Keyword(s):  
Web Of Science ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Published Research

Abstract. Research of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) – specific low frequency, high magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jokulhlaups – is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierised areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, a comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979–2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on: (i) where GLOFs are studied; (ii) who studies GLOFs; (iii) the export of research on GLOFs; and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends are discussed and placed in a broader context.

70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future

Geomorphology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 365 ◽  
pp. 107178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Martin Mergili ◽  
Simon Allen ◽  
Holger Frey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Cordillera Blanca ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from surrounding slopes

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Wilhelm Furian ◽  
David Loibl ◽  
Christoph Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Mass Movement ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Glacial Retreat ◽  
Proglacial Lakes ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Triggering Events

Abstract Bedrock overdeepenings exposed by continued glacial retreat can store precipitation and meltwater, potentially leading to the formation of new proglacial lakes. These lakes may pose threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high mountain areas, particularly if new lakes form in geomorphological setups prone to triggering events such as landslides or moraine collapses. We present the first complete inventory for future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia by computing the subglacial bedrock for ~100 000 glaciers and estimating overdeepening area, volume and impact hazard for the larger potential lakes. We detect 25 285 overdeepenings larger than 104 m2 with a volume of 99.1 ± 28.6 km3 covering an area of 2683 ± 773.8 km2. For the 2700 overdeepenings larger than 105 m2, we assess the lake predisposition for mass-movement impacts that could trigger a GLOF by estimating the hazard of material detaching from surrounding slopes. Our findings indicate a shift in lake area, volume and GLOF hazard from the southwestern Himalayan region toward the Karakoram. The results of this study can be used for anticipating emerging threats and potentials connected to glacial lakes and as a basis for further studies at suspected GLOF hazard hotspots.

scholarly journals Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru: Historic Events and Current Susceptibility

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2664
Author(s):  
Jan Baťka ◽  
Vít Vilímek ◽  
Eva Štefanová ◽  
Simon J. Cook ◽  
Adam Emmer
Keyword(s):  
Ice Age ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Dam Breach ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
High Resolution Satellite Images ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Dam Overtopping

The aim of this paper is to create a glacial lake inventory for the Cordillera Huayhuash in Peru and to evaluate the susceptibility of lakes to the generation of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Using high-resolution satellite images, we undertook qualitative and quantitative analysis of lake type, characteristics and distribution, and placed our findings within the context of existing Peru-wide lake inventories. We also mapped and analyzed past GLOFs, revealing a total of 10 GLOFs and 4 ambiguous events, most of which have not been reported before. We found that past GLOFs usually occurred as a result of moraine dam breach during the proglacial stage of lake evolution. Further, we used our lake inventory to evaluate GLOF susceptibility of all lakes larger than 20,000 m2. Of 46 evaluated lakes, only two lakes (Lake Tsacra and Lake W014) are currently susceptible to generating a GLOF, which would most likely be through dam overtopping resulting from a flood originating in smaller lakes located upstream. The future perspectives of lake evolution and implications for GLOF hazard management are discussed in light of the post-Little Ice Age glacier ice loss as well as in the context of extensive related research undertaken in the nearby Cordillera Blanca.

scholarly journals Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie Fischer ◽  
Oliver Korup ◽  
Georg Veh ◽  
Ariane Walz
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Model Classification ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Glacial lakes in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating hazard from glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments and expert judgment, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use a comprehensive inventory of 3,390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We use these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades, largely regardless of elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer some improvement with respect to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.

scholarly journals Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 4145-4163
Author(s):  
Melanie Fischer ◽  
Oliver Korup ◽  
Georg Veh ◽  
Ariane Walz
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Model Classification ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.

scholarly journals Simulation and Assessment of Future Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalayas

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1376
Author(s):  
Taigang Zhang ◽  
Weicai Wang ◽  
Tanguang Gao ◽  
Baosheng An
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Central Himalayas ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood

A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a typical glacier-related hazard in high mountain regions. In recent decades, glacial lakes in the Himalayas have expanded rapidly due to climate warming and glacial retreat. Some of these lakes are unstable, and may suddenly burst under different triggering factors, thus draining large amounts of water and impacting downstream social and economic development. Glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, Central Himalayas, have attracted great attention since GLOFs originating there could have a transboundary impact on both China and Nepal, as occurred during the Cirenmaco GLOF in 1981 and the Gongbatongshaco GLOF in 2016. Based on previous studies of this basin, we selected seven very high-risk moraine-dammed lakes (Gangxico, Galongco, Jialongco, Cirenmaco, Taraco, Beihu, and Cawuqudenco) to simulate GLOF propagation at different drainage percentage scenarios (i.e., 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%), and to conduct hazard assessment. The results show that, when any glacial lake is drained completely or partly, most of the floods will enter Nepal after raging in China, and will continue to cause damage. In summary, 57.5 km of roads, 754 buildings, 3.3 km2 of farmland, and 25 bridges are at risk of damage due to GLOFs. The potentially inundated area within the Chinese part of the Poiqu River basin exceeds 45 km2. Due to the destructive impacts of GLOFs on downstream areas, appropriate and effective measures should be implemented to adapt to GLOF risk. We finally present a paradigm for conducting hazard assessment and risk management. It uses only freely available data and thus is easy to apply.

scholarly journals Glacial lake change risk and management on the Chinese Nyainqentanglha in the past 40 years

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Shijin
Keyword(s):  
Lake Area ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Adaptation Capacity ◽  
Comprehensive Method ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Lake Change ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
County Scale

Abstract. The paper analyzed synthetically spatial distribution and evolution status of moraine-dammed lakes in the Nyainqentanglha Mountain, revealed risk degree of county-based potential dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) outburst floods disaster by combining PDGLs outburst hazard, regional exposure, vulnerability of exposed elements and adaptation capability and using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Weighted Comprehensive Method. The results indicate that 132 moraine-dammed lakes (> 0.02 km2) with a total area of 38.235 km2 were detected in the Nyainqentanglha in the 2010s, the lake number decreased only by 5 %, whereas total lake area expanded by 22.72 %, in which 54 lakes with a total area of 17.53 km2 are identified as PDGLs and total area increased by 144.31 %, higher significantly than 4.06 % of non-PDGLs. The zones at very high and high integrated risk of glacial lakes outburst floods (GLOFs) disaster are concentrated in the eastern Nyainqentanglha, whereas low and very low integrated risk zones are located mainly in the western Nyainqentanglha. On the county scale, Nagque and Nyingchi have the lowest hazard risk, Banbar has the highest hazard and vulnerability risk, Sog and Lhorong have the highest exposure risk. In contrast, Biru and Jiali have the highest vulnerability risk, while Gongbo'gyamda and Damxung have lowest adaptation capacity. The regionalization results for GLOF disaster risk in the study are consistent with the distribution of historical disaster sites across the Nyainqentanglha.

Debris Flows Resulting From Glacial-Lake Outburst Floods in Tibet, China

2010 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 508-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Cui ◽  
Chao Dang ◽  
Zunlan Cheng ◽  
Kevin M. Scott
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
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