Modelling past and future permafrost conditions in Svalbard

Abstract. Variations in ground thermal conditions in Svalbard were studied based on measurements and theoretical calculations. Ground temperature data was used to calibrate a transient heat flow model describing depth and time variations in temperatures. The model was subsequently forced with historical surface air temperature data records and downscaled global climate model runs to project ground temperatures. We discuss ground temperature development since the early 20th century, and the thermal responses in relation to ground characteristics and snow cover. The modelled ground temperatures show a gradually increase since the end of the Little Ice Age (mid 19th century on Svalbard), by about 1.5 °C to 2 °C at 20 m depth. The active layer thickness (ALT) is modelled to have increased slightly, with the rate of increase depending on water content of the near-surface layers. The used scenario runs predict a significant increase in ground temperatures and an increase of ALT depending on soil characteristics.

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Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-5-67-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 67-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 54

Author(s):

B. Etzelmüller ◽

T. V. Schuler ◽

K. Isaksen ◽

H. H. Christiansen ◽

H. Farbrot ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Thermal Conditions ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Ground Temperature ◽

Active Layer Thickness ◽

Near Surface ◽

Ground Temperatures ◽

Rate Of Increase

Abstract. Variations in ground thermal conditions in Svalbard were studied based on measurements and modelling. Ground temperature data from boreholes were used to calibrate a transient heat flow model describing depth and time variations in temperatures. The model was subsequently forced with historical surface air temperature records and possible future temperatures downscaled from multiple global climate models. We discuss ground temperature development since the early 20th century, and the thermal responses in relation to ground characteristics and snow cover. The modelled ground temperatures show a gradual increase between 1912 and 2010, by about 1.5 °C to 2 °C at 20 m depth. The active layer thickness (ALT) is modelled to have increased slightly, with the rate of increase depending on water content of the near-surface layers. The used scenario runs predict a significant increase in ground temperatures and an increase of ALT depending on soil characteristics.

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A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using the CDF-t method – a contribution to agricultural impact studies

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-9-313-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 313-338 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Adjoua Moise Famien ◽

Serge Janicot ◽

Abe Delfin Ochou ◽

Mathieu Vrac ◽

Dimitri Defrance ◽

...

Keyword(s):

West Africa ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Cumulative Distribution ◽

Shortwave Radiation ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Dataset ◽

Near Surface ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The objective of this paper is to present a new dataset of bias-corrected CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) daily data over Africa. This dataset was obtained using the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method, a method that has been applied to several regions and contexts but never to Africa. Here CDF-t has been applied over the period 1950–2099 combining Historical runs and climate change scenarios for six variables: precipitation, mean near-surface air temperature, near-surface maximum air temperature, near-surface minimum air temperature, surface downwelling shortwave radiation, and wind speed, which are critical variables for agricultural purposes. WFDEI has been used as the reference dataset to correct the GCMs. Evaluation of the results over West Africa has been carried out on a list of priority user-based metrics that were discussed and selected with stakeholders. It includes simulated yield using a crop model simulating maize growth. These bias-corrected GCM data have been compared with another available dataset of bias-corrected GCMs using WATCH Forcing Data as the reference dataset. The impact of WFD, WFDEI, and also EWEMBI reference datasets has been also examined in detail. It is shown that CDF-t is very effective at removing the biases and reducing the high inter-GCM scattering. Differences with other bias-corrected GCM data are mainly due to the differences among the reference datasets. This is particularly true for surface downwelling shortwave radiation, which has a significant impact in terms of simulated maize yields. Projections of future yields over West Africa are quite different, depending on the bias-correction method used. However all these projections show a similar relative decreasing trend over the 21st century.

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The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high-resolution global climate model data

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (11) ◽

pp. 2991-3006 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Matthew D. K. Priestley ◽

Helen F. Dacre ◽

Len C. Shaffrey ◽

Kevin I. Hodges ◽

Joaquim G. Pinto

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Return Period ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Geographic Region ◽

Near Surface ◽

Short Period

Abstract. Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging natural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs when many intense cyclones affect one specific geographic region in a short period of time which can potentially lead to very large seasonal losses. Previous studies have shown that intense cyclones may be more likely to cluster than less intense cyclones. We revisit this topic using a high-resolution climate model with the aim to determine how important clustering is for windstorm-related losses. The role of windstorm clustering is investigated using a quantifiable metric (storm severity index, SSI) that is based on near-surface meteorological variables (10 m wind speed) and is a good proxy for losses. The SSI is used to convert a wind footprint into losses for individual windstorms or seasons. 918 years of a present-day ensemble of coupled climate model simulations from the High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) are compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis. HiGEM is able to successfully reproduce the wintertime North Atlantic/European circulation, and represent the large-scale circulation associated with the serial clustering of European windstorms. We use two measures to identify any changes in the contribution of clustering to the seasonal windstorm loss as a function of return period. Above a return period of 3 years, the accumulated seasonal loss from HiGEM is up to 20 % larger than the accumulated seasonal loss from a set of random resamples of the HiGEM data. Seasonal losses are increased by 10 %–20 % relative to randomized seasonal losses at a return period of 200 years. The contribution of the single largest event in a season to the accumulated seasonal loss does not change with return period, generally ranging between 25 % and 50 %. Given the realistic dynamical representation of cyclone clustering in HiGEM, and comparable statistics to ERA-Interim, we conclude that our estimation of clustering and its dependence on the return period will be useful for informing the development of risk models for European windstorms, particularly for longer return periods.

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Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-1957-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1957-1968 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Charles J. Abolt ◽

Michael H. Young ◽

Adam L. Atchley ◽

Dylan R. Harp

Keyword(s):

Thermal Conditions ◽

Ground Temperature ◽

The Arctic ◽

Near Surface ◽

Hydrologic Processes ◽

Ground Temperatures ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Winter Temperatures ◽

Ice Wedge ◽

Prudhoe Bay

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon microtopography on near-surface ground temperatures. Ice wedge polygon microtopography is prone to rapid deformation in a changing climate, and cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost; therefore, feedbacks between microtopography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of sub-daily ground temperature observations at 5 depths and 9 locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.1 ∘C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that winter temperatures in the ice wedge are sensitive to both rim height and trough depth, but more sensitive to rim height. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. Deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for re-establishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be limited by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

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Imaging Thermal Anomalies in Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Systems from Near-Surface Geophysical Modelling

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11060675 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 675 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

David Gomez-Ortiz ◽

Isabel Blanco-Montenegro ◽

Jose Arnoso ◽

Tomas Martin-Crespo ◽

Mercedes Solla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ground Penetrating Radar ◽

Electromagnetic Induction ◽

Hydrothermal Systems ◽

Ground Temperature ◽

Geothermal Systems ◽

Near Surface ◽

Hot Dry Rock ◽

Ground Temperatures ◽

Imaging Results ◽

Ground Penetrating

Convective hydrothermal systems have been extensively studied using electrical and electromagnetic methods given the strong correlation between low conductivity anomalies associated with hydrothermal brines and high temperature areas. However, studies addressing the application of similar geophysical methods to hot dry rock geothermal systems are very limited in the literature. The Timanfaya volcanic area, located on Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands), comprises one of these hot dry rock systems, where ground temperatures ranging from 250 to 605 °C have been recorded in pyroclastic deposits at shallow (<70 m) depths. With the aim of characterizing the geophysical signature of the high ground temperature areas, three different geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar, electromagnetic induction and magnetic prospecting) were applied in a well-known geothermal area located inside Timanfaya National Park. The area with the highest ground temperatures was correlated with the location that exhibited strong ground penetrating radar reflections, high resistivity values and low magnetic anomalies. Moreover, the high ground temperature imaging results depicted a shallow, bowl-shaped body that narrowed and deepened vertically to a depth greater than 45 m. The ground penetrating radar survey was repeated three years later and exhibited subtle variations of the signal reflection patterns, or signatures, suggesting a certain temporal variation of the ground temperature. By identifying similar areas with the same geophysical signature, up to four additional geothermal areas were revealed. We conclude that the combined use of ground penetrating radar, electromagnetic induction and magnetic methods constitutes a valuable tool to locate and study both the geometry at depth and seasonal variability of geothermal areas associated with hot dry rock systems.

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Permafrost and active layer research on James Ross Island: An overview

Czech Polar Reports ◽

10.5817/cpr2019-1-3 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 20-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Filip Hrbáček ◽

Daniel Nývlt ◽

Kamil Láska ◽

Michaela Kňažková ◽

Barbora Kampová ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Thermal Conductivity ◽

Layer Thickness ◽

Active Layer ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Thermal Regime ◽

Ground Temperature ◽

Active Layer Thickness ◽

Near Surface ◽

James Ross Island ◽

The Mean

This study summarizes the current state of the active layer and permafrost research on James Ross Island. The analysis of climate parameters covers the reference period 2011–2017. The mean annual air temperature at the AWS-JGM site was -6.9°C (ranged from -3.9°C to -8.2°C). The mean annual ground temperature at the depth of 5 cm was -5.5°C (ranged from -3.3°C to -6.7°C) and it also reached -5.6°C (ranged from -4.0 to -6.8°C) at the depth of 50 cm. The mean daily ground temperature at the depth of 5 cm correlated moderately up to strongly with the air temperature depending on the season of the year. Analysis of the snow effect on the ground thermal regime confirmed a low insulating effect of snow cover when snow thickness reached up to 50 cm. A thicker snow accumulation, reaching at least 70 cm, can develop around the hyaloclastite breccia boulders where a well pronounced insulation effect on the near-surface ground thermal regime was observed. The effect of lithology on the ground physical properties and the active layer thickness was also investigated. Laboratory analysis of ground thermal properties showed variation in thermal conductivity (0.3 to 0.9 W m-1 K-1). The thickest active layer (89 cm) was observed on the Berry Hill slopes site, where the lowest thawing degree days index (321 to 382°C·day) and the highest value of thermal conductivity (0.9 W m-1 K-1) was observed. The clearest influence of lithological conditions on active layer thickness was observed on the CALM-S grid. The site comprises a sandy Holocene marine terrace and muddy sand of the Whisky Bay Formation. Surveying using a manual probe, ground penetrating radar, and an electromagnetic conductivity meter clearly showed the effect of the lithological boundary on local variability of the active layer thickness.

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Relating Satellite-Observed Cloud Properties from MODIS to Meteorological Conditions for Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2009jcli2897.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 (6) ◽

pp. 1374-1391 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Guang J. Zhang ◽

Andrew M. Vogelmann ◽

Michael P. Jensen ◽

William D. Collins ◽

Edward P. Luke

Keyword(s):

Boundary Layer ◽

Meteorological Parameters ◽

Marine Boundary Layer ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Liquid Water Path ◽

Near Surface ◽

Cloud Properties ◽

Lower Tropospheric Stability

Abstract This study examines 6 yr of cloud properties observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the NASA Terra satellite in five prominent marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud regions (California, Peru, Canary, Angola, and Australia) and investigates their relationships with near-surface meteorological parameters obtained from NCEP reanalyses. About 62 000 independent scenes are used to examine the instantaneous relationships between cloud properties and meteorological parameters that may be used for global climate model (GCM) diagnostics and parameterization. Cloud liquid water path (LWP) generally increases with lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and lifting condensation level (LCL), whereas cloud drizzle frequency is favored by weak LTS and negligible cold air advection. Cloud fraction (CF) depends strongly on variations in LTS, and to a lesser extent on surface air temperature advection and LCL, although the relationships vary from region to region. The authors propose capturing the effects of these three parameters on CF via their linear combination in terms of a single parameter, the effective lower-tropospheric stability (eLTS). Results indicate that eLTS offers a marked improvement over LTS alone in explaining the median CF variations within the different study regions. A parameterization of CF in terms of eLTS is provided, which produces results that are improved over those of Klein and Hartmann’s LTS-only parameterization. However, the new parameterization may not predict the observed variability correctly, and the authors propose a method that might address this shortcoming via a statistical approach.

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Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

10.5194/tc-2018-2 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Charles J. Abolt ◽

Michael H. Young ◽

Adam L. Atchley ◽

Dylan R. Harp

Keyword(s):

Rapid Change ◽

Thermal Conditions ◽

Ground Temperature ◽

The Arctic ◽

Near Surface ◽

Hydrologic Processes ◽

Ground Temperatures ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Winter Temperatures ◽

Ice Wedge

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon topography on near-surface ground temperatures. Because ice wedge polygon topography is prone to rapid change in a changing climate, and because cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost, feedbacks between topography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of subdaily ground temperature observations at five depths and nine locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, AK, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.2 °C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs, and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for reestablishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be precluded by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

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Verification of the EURO-CORDEX RCM Historical Run Results over the Pannonian Basin for the Summer Season

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12060714 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 714

Author(s):

Irida Lazić ◽

Milica Tošić ◽

Vladimir Djurdjević

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Pannonian Basin ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Precipitation Amount ◽

Summer Season ◽

Positive Temperature ◽

Near Surface

In previous projects that focused on dynamical downscaling over Europe, e.g., PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES, many regional climate models (RCMs) tended to overestimate summer air temperature and underestimate precipitation in this season in Southern and Southeastern Europe, leading to the so-called summer drying problem. This bias pattern occurred not only in the RCM results but also in the global climate model (GCM) results, so knowledge of the model uncertainties and their cascade is crucial for understanding and interpreting future climate. Our intention with this study was to examine whether a warm-and-dry bias is also present in the state-of-the-art EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble results in the summer season over the Pannonian Basin. Verification of EURO-CORDEX RCMs was carried out by using the E-OBS gridded dataset of daily mean, minimum, and maximum near-surface air temperature and total precipitation amount with a horizontal resolution of 0.1 degrees (approximately 12 km × 12 km) over the 1971–2000 time period. The model skill for selected period was expressed in terms of four verification scores: bias, centered root mean square error (RMSE), spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation. The main findings led us to conclude that most of the RCMs that overestimate temperature also underestimate precipitation. For some models, the positive temperature and negative precipitation bias were more emphasized, which led us to conclude that the problem was still present in most of the analyzed simulations.

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Southern Ocean Response to Strengthening Winds in an Eddy-Permitting Global Climate Model

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3098.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 (19) ◽

pp. 5332-5343 ◽

Cited By ~ 42

Author(s):

Paul Spence ◽

John C. Fyfe ◽

Alvaro Montenegro ◽

Andrew J. Weaver

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Antarctic Circumpolar Current ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Temperature Response ◽

Near Surface ◽

Ocean Response ◽

Circumpolar Current ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract A global climate model with horizontal resolutions in the ocean ranging from relatively coarse to eddy permitting is used to investigate the resolution dependence of the Southern Ocean response to poleward intensifying winds through the past and present centuries. The higher-resolution simulations show poleward migration of distinct ocean fronts associated with a more highly localized near-surface temperature response than in the lower-resolution simulations. The higher-resolution simulations also show increasing southward eddy heat transport, less high-latitude cooling, and greater sea ice loss than the lower-resolution simulations. For all resolutions, from relatively coarse to eddy permitting, there is poleward migration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Atlantic and the western half of the Indian basin. Finally, zonal transports associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are shown to be sensitive to resolution, and this is discussed in the context of recent observed change.

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