scholarly journals Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J. Abolt ◽  
Michael H. Young ◽  
Adam L. Atchley ◽  
Dylan R. Harp
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Change ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Ice Wedge

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon topography on near-surface ground temperatures. Because ice wedge polygon topography is prone to rapid change in a changing climate, and because cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost, feedbacks between topography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of subdaily ground temperature observations at five depths and nine locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, AK, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.2 °C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs, and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for reestablishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be precluded by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

scholarly journals Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1957-1968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J. Abolt ◽  
Michael H. Young ◽  
Adam L. Atchley ◽  
Dylan R. Harp
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Ice Wedge ◽  
Prudhoe Bay

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon microtopography on near-surface ground temperatures. Ice wedge polygon microtopography is prone to rapid deformation in a changing climate, and cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost; therefore, feedbacks between microtopography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of sub-daily ground temperature observations at 5 depths and 9 locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.1 ∘C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that winter temperatures in the ice wedge are sensitive to both rim height and trough depth, but more sensitive to rim height. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. Deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for re-establishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be limited by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

scholarly journals Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Etzelmüller ◽  
T. V. Schuler ◽  
K. Isaksen ◽  
H. H. Christiansen ◽  
H. Farbrot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Rate Of Increase

Abstract. Variations in ground thermal conditions in Svalbard were studied based on measurements and modelling. Ground temperature data from boreholes were used to calibrate a transient heat flow model describing depth and time variations in temperatures. The model was subsequently forced with historical surface air temperature records and possible future temperatures downscaled from multiple global climate models. We discuss ground temperature development since the early 20th century, and the thermal responses in relation to ground characteristics and snow cover. The modelled ground temperatures show a gradual increase between 1912 and 2010, by about 1.5 °C to 2 °C at 20 m depth. The active layer thickness (ALT) is modelled to have increased slightly, with the rate of increase depending on water content of the near-surface layers. The used scenario runs predict a significant increase in ground temperatures and an increase of ALT depending on soil characteristics.

scholarly journals Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Fernanda Casagrande ◽  
Francisco A. B. Neto ◽  
Ronald B. de Souza ◽  
Paulo Nobre
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Rise

One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.

scholarly journals Imaging Thermal Anomalies in Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Systems from Near-Surface Geophysical Modelling

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 675 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Gomez-Ortiz ◽  
Isabel Blanco-Montenegro ◽  
Jose Arnoso ◽  
Tomas Martin-Crespo ◽  
Mercedes Solla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Penetrating Radar ◽  
Electromagnetic Induction ◽  
Hydrothermal Systems ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Geothermal Systems ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hot Dry Rock ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Imaging Results ◽  
Ground Penetrating

Convective hydrothermal systems have been extensively studied using electrical and electromagnetic methods given the strong correlation between low conductivity anomalies associated with hydrothermal brines and high temperature areas. However, studies addressing the application of similar geophysical methods to hot dry rock geothermal systems are very limited in the literature. The Timanfaya volcanic area, located on Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands), comprises one of these hot dry rock systems, where ground temperatures ranging from 250 to 605 °C have been recorded in pyroclastic deposits at shallow (<70 m) depths. With the aim of characterizing the geophysical signature of the high ground temperature areas, three different geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar, electromagnetic induction and magnetic prospecting) were applied in a well-known geothermal area located inside Timanfaya National Park. The area with the highest ground temperatures was correlated with the location that exhibited strong ground penetrating radar reflections, high resistivity values and low magnetic anomalies. Moreover, the high ground temperature imaging results depicted a shallow, bowl-shaped body that narrowed and deepened vertically to a depth greater than 45 m. The ground penetrating radar survey was repeated three years later and exhibited subtle variations of the signal reflection patterns, or signatures, suggesting a certain temporal variation of the ground temperature. By identifying similar areas with the same geophysical signature, up to four additional geothermal areas were revealed. We conclude that the combined use of ground penetrating radar, electromagnetic induction and magnetic methods constitutes a valuable tool to locate and study both the geometry at depth and seasonal variability of geothermal areas associated with hot dry rock systems.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of pingos in northern Asia

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Grosse ◽  
B. M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Bioclimatic Zone ◽  
Continuous Permafrost ◽  
Thawing Permafrost ◽  
Ice Content ◽  
Surface Geology

Abstract. Pingos are prominent periglacial landforms in vast regions of the Arctic and Subarctic. They are indicators of modern and past conditions of permafrost, surface geology, hydrology and climate. A first version of a detailed spatial geodatabase of 6059 pingo locations in a 3.5×106 km2 region of northern Asia was assembled from topographic maps. A first order analysis was carried out with respect to permafrost, landscape characteristics, surface geology, hydrology, climate, and elevation datasets using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Pingo heights in the dataset vary between 2 and 37 m, with a mean height of 4.8 m. About 64% of the pingos occur in continuous permafrost with high ice content and thick sediments; another 19% in continuous permafrost with moderate ice content and thick sediments. The majority of these pingos are likely hydrostatic pingos, which are typical of those located in drained thermokarst lake basins of northern lowlands with continuous permafrost. About 82% of the pingos are located in the tundra bioclimatic zone. Most pingos in the dataset are located in regions with mean annual ground temperatures between −3 and −11 °C and mean annual air temperatures between −7 and −18 °C. The dataset confirms that surface geology and hydrology are key factors for pingo formation and occurrence. Based on model predictions for near-future permafrost distribution, about 2073 pingos (34%) along the southern margins of permafrost will be located in regions with thawing permafrost by 2100, which ultimately may lead to increased occurrence of pingo collapse. Based on our dataset and previously published estimates of pingo numbers from other regions, we conclude that there are more than 11 000 pingos on Earth.

scholarly journals Understanding Causes and Effects of Rapid Warming in the Arctic

Eos ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred Wendisch ◽  
Marlen Brückner ◽  
John Burrows ◽  
Susanne Crewell ◽  
Klaus Dethloff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The World ◽  
German Research ◽  
Research Consortium

A new German research consortium is investigating why near-surface air temperatures in the Artic are rising more quickly than in the rest of the world.

scholarly journals New insights into the environmental drivers of the circumpolar ground thermal regime

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli Karjalainen ◽  
Miska Luoto ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Jan Hjort
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Air Temperatures

Abstract. The thermal dynamics of permafrost shape Earth surface systems and human activity in the Arctic and have implications to global climate. Improved understanding of the fine-scale variability in the circumpolar ground thermal regime is required to account for its sensitivity to changing climatic and geoecological conditions. Here, we statistically related circumpolar observations of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) to high-resolution (~1 km2) geospatial data to identify their key environmental drivers. The multivariate models fitted well to MAGT and ALT observations with average R2 values being ~0.94 and 0.78, respectively. Corresponding predictive performances in terms of root mean square error were ~1.31 °C and 87 cm. Freezing air temperatures were the main driver of MAGT in permafrost conditions while thawing temperatures dominated when permafrost was not present. ALT was most strongly related to solar radiation and precipitation with an important influence from soil properties. Our findings suggest that in addition to climatic factors, initial ground thermal conditions and local-scale topography-soil-driven variability need to be considered in order to realistically assess the impacts of climate change on cold-climate geoecosystems.

scholarly journals Infrared Interferometric Measurements of the Near-Surface Air Temperature over the Oceans

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1019-1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Minnett ◽  
K. A. Maillet ◽  
J. A. Hanafin ◽  
B. J. Osborne
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Radiometric Measurement ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Marine Air ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The radiometric measurement of the marine air temperature using a Fourier transform infrared spectroradiometer is described. The measurements are taken by the Marine-Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (M-AERI) that has been deployed on many research ships in a wide range of conditions. This approach is inherently more accurate than conventional techniques and can be used to determine some of the error characteristics of the standard measurements. Examples are given from several cruises ranging from the Arctic to the equatorial Pacific Oceans. It is shown that the diurnal heating signal in radiometric air temperatures in the tropical Pacific can typically reach an amplitude of ∼15% of that measured by conventional sensors. Conventional data have long been recognized as being contaminated by direct solar heating and heat island effects of the ships or buoys on which they are mounted, but here this effect is quantified by comparisons with radiometric measurements.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of pingos in Northern Asia

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1781-1837
Author(s):  
G. Grosse ◽  
B. M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Bioclimatic Zone ◽  
Continuous Permafrost ◽  
Thawing Permafrost ◽  
Ice Content ◽  
Surface Geology

Abstract. Pingos are prominent periglacial landforms in vast regions of the Arctic and Subarctic. They are indicators of modern and past conditions of permafrost, surface geology, hydrology and climate. A first version of a detailed spatial geodatabase of more than 6000 pingo locations in a 3.5 × 106 km2 region of Northern Asia was assembled from topographic maps. A first order analysis was carried out with respect to permafrost, landscape characteristics, surface geology, hydrology, climate, and elevation datasets using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Pingo heights in the dataset vary between 2 and 37 m, with a mean height of 4.8 m. About 64% of the pingos occur in continuous permafrost with high ice content and thick sediments; another 19% in continuous permafrost with moderate ice content and thick sediments. The majority of these pingos likely formed through closed system freezing, typical of those located in drained thermokarst lake basins of northern lowlands with continuous permafrost. About 82% of the pingos are located in the tundra bioclimatic zone. Most pingos in the dataset are located in regions with mean annual ground temperatures between −3 and −11 °C and mean annual air temperatures between −7 and −18 °C. The dataset confirms that surface geology and hydrology are key factors for pingo formation and occurrence. Based on model predictions for near-future permafrost distribution, hundreds of pingos along the southern margins of permafrost will be located in regions with thawing permafrost by 2100, which ultimately may lead to increased occurrence of pingo collapse. Based on our dataset and previously published estimates of pingo numbers from other regions, we conclude that there are more than 11 000 pingos on Earth.

scholarly journals Changes in Ground Temperature and Dynamics in Mountain Permafrost in the Swiss Alps

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Haberkorn ◽  
Robert Kenner ◽  
Jeannette Noetzli ◽  
Marcia Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Rock Glacier ◽  
Borehole Data ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Mountain Permafrost ◽  
Permafrost Warming

Rising air temperatures and increasingly intense precipitation are being observed in the Swiss Alps. These changes strongly affect the evolution of the temperature regime and the dynamics of mountain permafrost. Changes occur at different rates depending on ground ice content. Long-term monitoring reveals progressive warming and degradation of permafrost and accelerating rock glacier velocities. This study analyses changes occurring in ice-rich (excess-ice) and ice-poor mountain permafrost in Switzerland between 1997 and 2019 on the basis of ground temperature and rock glacier dynamics measurements carried out by the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF at seven sites. Long-term borehole data indicate an increase of ground temperatures at all depths, in particular at ice-poor and nearly snow-free sites. Active layers are thickening at most sites and prolonged periods of active layer thaw are observed. Long autumn zero curtains are observed in ice-rich permafrost, possibly leading to an overall acceleration of rock glaciers. All these changes point towards ongoing permafrost warming and permafrost degradation in future.

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