Stochastic progamming in the mid-term operations planning of an oil refinery

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Nascimento ◽  
Helder Venceslau ◽  
Adilson Xavier ◽  
Virgílio Ferreira Filho ◽  
Leonidas Sakalauskas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Programming ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Production Plan ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Operations Planning ◽  
The Impact

Oil refining is a series of processes that aim to separate the crude oil into pre-standardized fractions. The way these processes can be combined result in a variety of schemes where each one can be used as a production plan. This work presents a methodology, based upon stochastic programming (SP), that support the decision makers in the mid-term operations planning of an oil refinery. Results generated by running a multi-period two-stage SP model are used to measure the impact on the economic efficiency when not considering the randomness of the demand and the receipt of crude oil.

Assessment of the impact of factors of the working environment on the health of workers in oil refining based on the analysis of morbidity

2020 ◽  
pp. 600-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. V. Ginko ◽  
T. M. Sushinskaya ◽  
A. L. Rybina
Keyword(s):  
Comparison Group ◽  
Main Group ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Production Environment ◽  
The Impact

Studies have been conducted to assess the impact of factors of the production environment on employees of the oil refinery ofJSC «Naftan». Significant differences with the comparison group on the indicators of SVT were revealed. Priority nosological forms of employees of the main group are identified.

scholarly journals Optimization of Ecological Water Supplement Scheme for Improved Suitable Habitat Area for Rare Migratory Birds in Nature Reserves Using Interval-Parameter Fuzzy Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (20) ◽  
pp. 7562
Author(s):  
Xianrui Liao ◽  
Chong Meng ◽  
Zhixing Ren ◽  
Wenjin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Programming ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Fuzzy Membership ◽  
Interval Parameter ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Target Value ◽  
Habitat Area ◽  
Optimization Schemes

The optimization of ecological water supplement scheme in Momoge National Nature Reserve (MNNR), using an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model (IPTSP), still experiences problems with fuzzy uncertainties and the wide scope of the obtained optimization schemes. These two limitations pose a high risk of system failure causing high decision risk for decision-makers and render it difficult to further undertake optimization schemes respectively. Therefore, an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IPFTSP) model derived from an IPTSP model was constructed to address the random variable, the interval uncertainties and the fuzzy uncertainties in the water management system in the present study, to reduce decision risk and narrow down the scope of the optimization schemes. The constructed IPFTSP model was subsequently applied to the optimization of the ecological water supplement scheme of MNNR under different scenarios, to maximize the recovered habitat area and the carrying capacity for rare migratory water birds. As per the results of the IPFTSP model, the recovered habitat areas for rare migratory birds under low, medium and high flood flow scenarios were (14.06, 17.88) × 103, (14.92, 18.96) × 103 and (15.83, 19.43) × 103 ha, respectively, and the target value was (14.60, 18.47) × 103 ha with a fuzzy membership of (0.01, 0.83). Fuzzy membership reflects the possibility level that the model solutions satisfy the target value and the corresponding decision risk. We further observed that the habitat area recovered by the optimization schemes of the IPFTSP model was significantly increased compared to the recommended scheme, and the increases observed were (5.22%, 33.78%), (11.62%, 41.88%) and (18.44%, 45.39%). In addition, the interval widths of the recovered habitat areas in the IPFTSP model were reduced by 17.15%, 17.98% and 23.86%, in comparison to those from the IPTSP model. It was revealed that the IPFTSP model, besides generating the optimal decision schemes under different scenarios for decision-makers to select and providing decision space to adjust the decision schemes, also shortened the decision range, thereby reducing the decision risk and the difficulty of undertaking decision schemes. In addition, the fuzzy membership obtained from the IPFTSP model, reflecting the relationship among the possibility level, the target value, and the decision risk, assists the decision-makers in planning the ecological water supplement scheme with a preference for target value and decision risk.

The Impact of the Crude Oil Subsidy on Economic Efficiency in Canada

1977 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne R. Thirsk ◽  
Robert R. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Drastic corrosive coliation of petroleum oils and the decay of metals

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-42
Author(s):  
Suresh Aluvihara ◽  
Jagath Premachandra
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Crude Oils ◽  
Chemical Compositions ◽  
Corrosion Rates ◽  
Ferrous Metals ◽  
Initial Hardness ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Petroleum Oils

In the industry of petroleum oil refining industry the term of corrosion is frequently applicable regarding the several incidents because of the corrosiveness of petroleum oils due to the presence of trace corrosive compounds in such petroleum oils since the occurrences. Usually the corrosion is the results of chemical or electrochemical process of metals when it is exposing to the corrosive environment. The investigations of the impact of the organic acids, salts, elemental sulfur and the Mercaptans on the corrosion rates of seven different types of ferrous metals and the analysis of the nature of the corrosion between these materials were the objectives of the existing research. The relevant corrosive properties of two different types of selected crude oils and the chemical compositions of selected seven different types of ferrous metals were tested by the standard methods and instruments. A batch of similar sized metal coupons was immersed in both crude oil samples separately as three homogeneous metal coupons per each crude oil container. In order of after 15, 30 and 45 days from the immersion the corrosion rates of such metal coupons were determined by the weight loss method as three sets of samples while observing the corroded metal surfaces through an optical microscope. In addition, the decay of ferrous and copper from metals into crude oils while the interaction and the deductions of the initial hardness of metals were tested. As the basic investigations there were observed the relatively lower corrosion rates from stainless steels, relatively higher impact from salts on the metallic corrosion at lower temperatures, formations of FeS, Fe2O3, corrosion cracks and pitting, significant decays of ferrous and copper from some metals and the slight reductions of the initial hardness of metals after the interaction with the petroleum oils.

scholarly journals Scenario Based Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Approach for the Midterm Production Planning of Oil Refinery

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norshela Mohd Noh ◽  
Arifah Bahar ◽  
Zaitul Marlizawati Zainuddin
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Stochastic Programming ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Scenario Tree ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
The Past

Recently, oil refining industry is facing with lower profit margin due to uncertainty. This causes oil refinery to include stochastic optimization in making a decision to maximize the profit. In the past, deterministic linear programming approach is widely used in oil refinery optimization problems. However, due to volatility and unpredictability of oil prices in the past ten years, deterministic model might not be able to predict the reality of the situation as it does not take into account the uncertainties thus, leads to non-optimal solution. Therefore, this study will develop two-stage stochastic linear programming for the midterm production planning of oil refinery to handle oil price volatility. Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is used to describe uncertainties in crude oil price, petroleum product prices, and demand for petroleum products. This model generates the future realization of the price and demands with scenario tree based on the statistical specification of GBM using method of moment as input to the stochastic programming. The model developed in this paper was tested for Malaysia oil refinery data. The result of stochastic approach indicates that the model gives better prediction of profit margin.

scholarly journals A New Two-Stage Approach with Boosting and Model Averaging for Interval-Valued Crude Oil Prices Forecasting in Uncertainty Environments

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bai Huang ◽  
Yuying Sun ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Intrinsic Complexity ◽  
Interval Valued

In view of the intrinsic complexity of the oil market, crude oil prices are influenced by numerous factors that make forecasting very difficult. Recognizing this challenge, numerous approaches have been introduced, but little work has been done concerning the interval-valued prices. To capture the underlying characteristics of crude oil price movements, this paper proposes a two-stage forecasting procedure to forecast interval-valued time series, which generalizes point-valued forecasts to incorporate uncertainty and variability. The empirical results show that our proposed approach significantly outperforms all the benchmark models in terms of both forecasting accuracy and robustness analysis. These results can provide references for decision-makers to understand the trends of crude oil prices and improve the efficiency of economic activities.

scholarly journals Impact of Illegal Crude Oil Refining in Jike-ama River of Bille Kingdom, Rivers State, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 46-51
Author(s):  
Nwachoko, Ndidi ◽  
Davies, Bekinbo ◽  
Tetam, Jack Gbenenee
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Metals ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Metal Content ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Permissible Limits ◽  
Water And Sediment ◽  
Hydrocarbon Content ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Hydrocarbon Content

Oil exploration and exploitation is a lucrative business and one of the major sources of revenue in Nigeria. Each year, hundreds of post-impact assessment (PIA) studies are conducted to assess the impact of the hazards generated by the oil industry on social environment and on human health. This hazardous impact is the associated with the activities of illegal refining of crude oil. Thus, this work examined the impact of illegal crude oil refining activities in Jike-Ama river of Jike-Ama community. Shellfish, fish, surface water and sediment samples were randomly collected in triplicates. Physiochemical parameters, heavy metal content, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and total hydrocarbon content of the water in addition to heavy metal content and PAHs in fish, Shellfish and sediment were determined. The results of the physicochemical parameters showed that pH, total suspended solids, biological oxygen demand, turbidity and total hydrocarbon content of water were above FEPA permissible limits while chloride, nitrate and sulphate detected in water were within FEPA permissible limits. Dissolved oxygen was observed to be below FEPA permissible limit. The mean concentration of heavy metals and PAHs in sediment showed significant difference (p<0.05) when compared with values for Shellfish and fish and were above FEPA and WHO permissible limits. Shellfish had higher concentrations of heavy metals and PAHs than fish. PAHs values in shellfish showed significant difference (p<0.05). Heavy metals concentration in fish were above permissible limits except Cr, Zn and Pb. Concentration of PAHs in fish, shellfish, surface water and sediment were generally above FEPA and WHO permissible limits. This findings suggests high concentration of contaminants in Jike-Ama river.

Interval-parameter robust optimization for environmental management under uncertainty

2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 592-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.P. Li ◽  
G.H. Huang
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Programming ◽  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Interval Parameter ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Programming Framework ◽  
Different Levels

In this study, an interval-parameter robust optimization (IPRO) method is developed through incorporating techniques of interval-parameter programming and robust optimization within a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The IPRO improves upon the two-stage stochastic programming methods by allowing uncertainties presented as both intervals and random variables to be handled in the optimization system. Moreover, in the modeling formulation, penalties are exercised with the recourse against any infeasibility, and robustness measures are introduced to examine the variability of the second-stage costs that are above the expected level. The IPRO is generally suitable for risk-aversive planners under high-variability conditions. The developed method is applied to a case of long-term waste management under uncertainty. Interval solutions under different robustness levels have been generated. They cannot only be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are related to different levels of economic penalties when the pre-regulated waste allocation allowances are violated, but also help decision makers to analyze the interrelationships between the penalties and their variabilities.

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