scholarly journals A Novel Method for Rapid Mapping of the Spatial Intensity of Influenza Epidemics

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Muscatello ◽  
Robert Neil F. Leong ◽  
Robin M. Turner ◽  
Anthony T. Newall

ObjectiveUsing the epidemic of influenza type A in 2016 in Australia, we demonstrated a simple but statistically sound adaptive method of automatically representing the spatial intensity and evolution of an influenza epidemic that could be applied to a laboratory surveillance count data stream that does not have a denominator.IntroductionSurveillance of influenza epidemics is a priority for risk assessment and pandemic preparedness. Mapping epidemics can be challenging because influenza infections are incompletely ascertained, ascertainment can vary spatially, and often a denominator is not available. Rapid, more refined geographic or spatial intelligence could facilitate better preparedness and response.MethodsWeekly counts of persons with laboratory confirmed influenza type A infections in Australia in 2016 were analysed by 86 sub-state geographical areas. Weekly standardised epidemic intensity was represented by a z-score calculated using the standard deviation of below-median counts in the previous 52 weeks. A geographic information system was used to present the epidemic progression.ResultsThere were 79,628 notifications of influenza A infections included. Of these, 79,218 (99.5%) were allocated to a geographical area. The maps indicated areas of elevated epidemic intensity across Australia by week and area, that were consistent with the observed start, peak and decline of the epidemic when compared with weekly counts aggregated at the state and territory level. An example is shown in Figure 1.ConclusionsThe methods could be automated to rapidly generate spatially varying epidemic intensity maps using a surveillance data stream. This could improve local level epidemic intelligence in a variety of settings and for other diseases. It may also increase our understanding of geographic epidemic dynamics. 

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Ibarra-Zapata ◽  
Darío Gaytán-Hernández ◽  
Verónica Gallegos-García ◽  
Claudia Elena González-Acevedo ◽  
Thuluz Meza-Menchaca ◽  
...  

The aim of this study was to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A (EOITA) in Mexico, using geospatial models. A spatial database of 1973 outbreaks of influenza worldwide was used to develop risk models accounting for natural (natural threat), anthropic (man-made) and environmental (combination of the above) transmission. Then, a virus establishment risk model; an introduction model of influenza A developed in another study; and the three models mentioned were utilized using multi-criteria spatial evaluation supported by geographically weighted regression (GWR), receiver operating characteristic analysis and Moran’s I. The results show that environmental risk was concentrated along the Gulf and Pacific coasts, the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Baja California. The identified risk for EOITA in Mexico were: 15.6% and 4.8%, by natural and anthropic risk, respectively, while 18.5% presented simultaneous environmental, natural and anthropic risk. Overall, 28.1% of localities in Mexico presented a High/High risk for the establishment of influenza type A (area under the curve=0.923, P<0.001; GWR, r2=0.840, P<0.001; Moran’s I =0.79, P<0.001). Hence, these geospatial models were able to robustly estimate those areas susceptible to EOITA, where the results obtained show the relation between the geographical area and the different effects on health. The information obtained should help devising and directing strategies leading to efficient prevention and sound administration of both human and financial resources.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Wang ◽  
Shisong Fang

ObjectiveTo determine avian influenza A(H5N6) virus infection in humanand environment using extensive surveillances. To evaluate theprevalence of H5N6 infection among high risk population.IntroductionSince the emergence of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2013,extensive surveillances have been established to monitor the humaninfection and environmental contamination with avian influenza virusin southern China. At the end of 2015, human infection with influenzaA(H5N6) virus was identified in Shenzhen for the first time throughthese surveillances. These surveillances include severe pneumoniascreening, influenza like illness (ILI) surveillance, follow-up onclose contact of the confirmed case, serological survey among poultryworkers, environment surveillance in poultry market.MethodsSevere pneumonia screening was carried out in all hospitals ofShenzhen. When a patient with severe pneumonia is suspected forinfection with avian influenza virus, after consultation with at leasttwo senior respiratory physicians from the designated expert paneland gaining their approval, the patient will be reported to local CDC,nasal and pharyngeal swabs will be collected and sent for detectionof H5N6 virus by RT-PCR.ILI surveillance was conducted in 11 sentinel hospitals, 5-20 ILIcases were sampled for detection of seasonal influenza virus by RT-PCR test every week for one sentinel. If swab sample is tested positivefor influenza type A and negative for subtypes of seasonal A(H3N2)and A(H1N1), it will be detected further for influenza A(H5N6) virus.Follow-up on close contacts was immediately carried out whenhuman case of infection with H5N6 was identified. All of closecontacts were requested to report any signs and symptoms of acuterespiratory illness for 10 days, nasal and pharyngeal swabs werecollected and tested for influenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test.In the meantime, environmental samples were collected in the marketwhich was epidemiologically associated with patient and tested forH5N6 virus by RT-PCR test.Serological survey among poultry workers was conducted in tendistricts of Shenzhen. Poultry workers were recruited in poultrymarkets and screened for any signs and symptoms of acute respiratoryillness, blood samples were collected to detect haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody for influenza A(H5N6) virus.Environment surveillance was conducted twice a month in tendistricts of Shenzhen. For each district, 10 swab samples werecollected at a time. All environmental samples were tested forinfluenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test.ResultsFrom Nov 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016, 50 patients with severepneumonia were reported and detected for H5N6 virus, three patientswere confirmed to be infected with H5N6 virus. Case 1 was a 26 yearsold woman and identified on Dec 29, 2015. She purchased a duck ata live poultry stall of nearby market, cooked and ate the duck 4 daysbefore symptom onset. After admission to hospital on Dec 27, hercondition deteriorated rapidly, on Dec 30 she died. The case 2 was a25 years old man and confirmed on Jan 7, 2016. He visited a marketeveryday and had no close contact with poultry, except for passingby live poultry stalls. He recovered and was discharged from hospitalon Jan 22. The case 3 was is a 31 years old woman and reported onJan 16, 2016, she had no contact with live poultry and died on Feb 8.For 60 close contacts of three cases, none of them reported signsor symptoms of acute respiratory illness, all of nasal and pharyngealswabs were tested negative for influenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCRtest. Of 146 environmental swabs collected in the case’s living placesand relevant poultry markets, 38 were tested positive for influenzaA(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test.From Nov 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016, 2812 ILI cases were sampledand tested for influenza type A and subtypes of seasonal influenza.Those samples tested positive for influenza type A could be furthersubtyped to seasonal A(H3N2) or A(H1N1), therefore no sample fromILI case was tested for influenza A(H5N6) virus.Serological surveys among poultry workers were conductedtwice, for the first survey 186 poultry workers were recruited in Oct2015, for the second survey 195 poultry workers were recruited inJan 2016. Blood sample were collected and tested for HI antibodyof influenza A(H5N6) virus. 2 individuals had H5N6 HI antibodytiter of 1:40, 5 individuals had H5N6 HI antibody titer of 1:20, rest ofthem had H5N6 HI antibody titer of <1:20. According to the WHOguideline, HI antibody titer of≥1:160 against avian influenza viruswere considered positive.From Nov 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016, of 1234 environmental swabscollected in poultry markets, 339 (27.5%)were tested positive forinfluenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test. Each of the ten districtshad poultry markets which was contaminated by influenza A(H5N6)virus.ConclusionsIn 2015-2016 winter, three cases of infection with influenzaA(H5N6) virus were identified in Shenzhen, all of them were youngindividuals with average age of 27.3 years and developed severepneumonia soon after illness onset, two cases died. For acute andsevere disease, early detection and treatment is the key measure forpatient’s prognosis.H5N6 virus was identified in poultry market and other placeswhere patient appeared, implying poultry market probably was thesource of infection. Despite the high contamination rate of H5N6virus in poultry market, we found that the infection with H5N6 virusamong poultry workers was not prevalent, with infection rate being0/381. Human infection with H5N6 virus seemed to be a sporadicoccurrence, poultry-human transmission of H5N6 virus might not bevery effective.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1966-1969
Author(s):  
Abdelmohsen Abduallah Alnaeem ◽  
Abdulkareem Al-Shabeb ◽  
Maged Gomaa Hemida

Background and Aim: Influenza type A virus infections are still one of the major concerns for the health of humans and various species of domestic and companion animals. Wild birds play an essential role in the transmission cycle of the virus. Regularly monitoring the spread of the virus is a significant step in its mitigation. Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, including H5N1 and H5N8, have been reported in birds in the Arabian Peninsula, including Saudi Arabia, in recent decades. This study aimed to evaluate the immune status of birds, domestic and companion animals for Influenza type A virus in Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Materials and Methods: We collected 195 serum samples from dromedary camels, sheep, goats, native breed chickens, doves, dogs, and cats. We tested these sera for the presence of specific antibodies against influenza type A virus using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results: Our results show that 4% of the tested samples had antibodies in sera, including some doves, chickens, and dogs. These data suggest exposure and seroconversion of these animals or birds to the influenza type A virus. Conclusion: The presence of antibodies against influenza type A virus in sera of some animals and birds without a previous vaccination history against the virus indicates a natural exposure history regarding this virus and seroconversion. Further large-scale molecular and epidemiological studies are needed to obtain a better understanding of the dynamics of influenza type A virus among various species of animals and birds.


2021 ◽  
pp. 134-140
Author(s):  
Luca Ena ◽  
Vittorio Mazzarello ◽  
Marco Ferrari ◽  
Pasquale Ena

Erythema annulare centrifugum (EAC) is a rare erythema characterized by erythematous and urticarial papules or annular plaques that enlarges centrifugally. The lesions usually involve the thighs and the legs. Several disorders are occasionally associated with EAC, infections, including mycoses, bacteria, or viruses and drugs have also been regarded as possible causes of this eruption. We present a 42-year-old dark-skinned woman affected by recurrent EAC that appeared secondary to influenza type A (H1N1). Histopathology showed a superficial form of EAC. In our case, a previous cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection were identified and no underlying other diseases were found. Clarithromycin with calcipotriol betamethasone treatment was temporarily efficacious. In the last 3 years, the lesions started to appear every 2 weeks and tended to regress with local treatment after a variable period. We believe that the latent cytomegalovirus and the reactivity induced by EBV combined with influenza can determine, in our case, a cell mediate cutaneous immune response, which leads to the peculiar inflammatory disease known as EAC.


1980 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 719-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
C S Reiss ◽  
J L Schulman

M protein of influenza A virus was detected with rabbit antiserum by both indirect immunofluorescence and by antibody plus complement-mediated cytolysis on the cell surfaces of both productively and nonproductively infected cells. In contrast, antiserum to nucleoprotein failed to react with unfixed infected cells, but did bind to fixed infected cells, especially in the perinuclear area. Incorporation of antiserum to M protein in a T-cell-mediated cytotoxicity assay produced almost complete abrogation of lysis of H-2-compatible cells infected with an influenza A virus of a subtype which differed from that used to elicit the cytotoxic T cells. However, the antibody did not significantly block 51Cr release from cells infected with the homotypic type A influenza virus. These observations are in accord with the hypothesis that the cross-reactive cytotoxic T-cell responses seen with cells infected by heterotypic influenza A viruses are due to recognition of a common M protein.


2017 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
Timothy Byaruhanga ◽  
Bernard Bagaya ◽  
Joyce Namulondo ◽  
John Timothy Kayiwa ◽  
Barbara Namagambo ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 441-446
Author(s):  
M. Menichini ◽  
F. Genua ◽  
N. Lari ◽  
L. Rindi

Abstract.Background.Mycobacterium avium subsp. hominissuis (MAH) is an important pathogen responsible for most of the human-associated nontuberculous mycobacteria infections. Over the past few decades the incidence of MAH infections is increasing in Italy, as in many countries worldwide. The present study is aimed to elucidate the genetic characteristics of MAH strains isolated from human patients using VNTR typing and to show the genetic relatedness among them.Methods.The genetic diversity of 108 human isolates of MAH was determined by VNTR analysis targeting 8 loci, coded 32, 292, X3, 25, 3, 7, 10 and 47.Results.The VNTR analysis revealed 25 distinct VNTR patterns; of these, 13 patterns were unique, while 12 patterns were shared by 2 or more isolates, thus yielding 12 clusters including a total of 95 isolates. The discriminatory power of our VNTR analysis yielded an HGDI of 0.990, indicating that VNTR typing has an excellent discriminatory power. No association of a particular VNTR pattern with a particular clinical feature, such as the disseminated, pulmonary or extrapulmonary type of infection, was observed. Minimum spanning tree analysis showed that 21 VNTR patterns, occurring either as clustered or unique isolates, differed from the nearest one for one allelic variation.Conclusions.The results obtained through the VNTR analysis showed that most MAH strains displayed a close genetic relationship. This high phylogenetic proximity of the VNTR loci over a long time period supports the concept that the MAH genotype is highly homogeneous in our geographical area, suggesting the hypothesis of the presence of possible sources of infection and transmission pathways at the local level.


2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Kasnodihardjo Kasnodihardjo ◽  
Kenti Friskarini

Flu burung (avian influenza) adalah suatu penyakit menular pada unggas yang disebabkan oleh virus influenza tipe A subtipe H5N1. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui kondisi sanitasi lingkungan dan perilaku peternak berkaitan dengan flu burung. Data dikumpulkan melalui wawancara dengan menggunakan kuesioner disertai pengamatan lapangan. Besar sampel sebanyak 7.200 yang tersebar di 18 kelurahan, dengan 1.536 responden peternak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebagian besar jenis unggas yang dipelihara oleh masyarakat adalah ayam. Sebagian besar responden mengandangkan unggasnya. Sebesar 65,63% mencuci tangan dengan sabun setelah memegang unggas. Unggas yang mati dimusnahkan dengan cara dibakar 41,08% dan dikubur 50,06%. Tidak menjual unggas peliharaan, baik yang mati maupun yang sakit 86,39%, dan tidak mengonsumsi unggas mati 86,06%, membersihkan kandang secara berkala 43,42%, namun yang melakukan desinfektan kandang hanya 16,66%. Sewaktu ada unggas peliharaannya mati yang mengenakan alat pelindung diri 26,82%, sedangkan yang melapor kepada yang berwenang ketika ada unggas mati hanya 5,17%, dan ketika unggas peliharaanya sakit 18,20%, mengobati unggas yang sakit 21,48%, dan memisahkannya dengan unggas sehat 38,54%. Kegiatan vaksinasi proporsinya relatif kecil. Perilaku sebagian besar peternak masih kurang menunjang upaya pencegahan flu burung.Avian Influenza is a comunibable desease among poultry that coused by influenza type A virus subtipe H5N1. This study aimed to emphasize the discussion of environmental sanitation of the cage and behavioral aspects of poultry keepers. Data were collected through interviews using questionnaire and field observations. Sample as many as 7,200 people across 18 villages, and was gathered 1,536 of poultry keepers. The results illustrated that most of birds that are kept by the people in the study area was chicken and most of the respondents keep poultry into the cage. Washed hands with soap after handling poultry was 65.63%. Burned poultry that found death by 41.08%, and 50.06% by buried it. Not selling and consumed dead or sick by 86.39%, and 86.06%. Periodically clean the cage by 43.42%, and 16.66% disinfectant the cage. Wearing protective instrument when handling dead birds were found 26.82%. Report to the Board of RT/RW when found dead poultry was 15.17%, and 18.20% when the birds was sick. Treat the sick poultry was 21.48%, and separate the sick birds was 38.54 %. Small percentage on vaccinate the poultry. As the conclusion, the behavior of the owner poultry keeper still lacking to support the efforts on the prevention of aviant influenza.


2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 706-709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberle C. Chapin ◽  
Estefany J. Flores-Cortez

Data on the performance of rapid molecular point-of-care use platforms for diagnosis of influenza are lacking. We validated nasopharyngeal (NP) flocked specimens in universal transport medium (UTM) and evaluated the clinical sensitivity and specificity of the Alere i influenza A&B test compared to those of the Xpert flu A/B assay. The Alere i influenza A&B test had an overall sensitivity and specificity of 93.8% and 62.5% for influenza A, respectively, and of 91.8% and 53.6% for influenza B, respectively. The poor specificity was due to influenza virus samples determined positive for both type A and B.


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