Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Dynamical Transmission of Lassa Fever

Lassa fever is an acute viral disease which occurs across West Africa regions. In view of this a non-linear deterministic model was considered to study dynamics spread of Lassa fever. Existence and uniqueness of the model were determined and the basic reproduction number of the model was computed using next-generation matrix, and sensitivity analysis of the model was performed and shows that the most sensitive parameters to the dynamical spread of Lassa fever are human birth rate bH, followed by average number of female partners acquired by susceptible male c2, and transmission rate resulting from sexual interaction between infected male and susceptible female h2 have the highest values. It concludes that average number of female partners acquired by susceptible male and sexual transmission rate between the infected male and susceptible female should be reduced. Keywords: Existence and Uniqueness, disease free equilibrium, basic reproduction numbers and sensitivity analysis.

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Global dynamics of a novel deterministic and stochastic SIR epidemic model with vertical transmission and media coverage

Advances in Difference Equations ◽

10.1186/s13662-020-03145-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Xiaodong Wang ◽

Chunxia Wang ◽

Kai Wang

Keyword(s):

Vertical Transmission ◽

Epidemic Model ◽

Media Coverage ◽

Existence And Uniqueness ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Global Dynamics ◽

Sir Epidemic Model ◽

Sir Epidemic ◽

Stochastic Sir

AbstractIn this paper, we study a novel deterministic and stochastic SIR epidemic model with vertical transmission and media coverage. For the deterministic model, we give the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ R 0 which determines the extinction or prevalence of the disease. In addition, for the stochastic model, we prove existence and uniqueness of the positive solution, and extinction and persistence in mean. Furthermore, we give numerical simulations to verify our results.

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The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-79546-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sudarat Chadsuthi ◽

Karine Chalvet-Monfray ◽

Anuwat Wiratsudakul ◽

Charin Modchang

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Public Education ◽

Mathematical Models ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Multiplication Rate ◽

High Degree ◽

Transmission Models

AbstractThe epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

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Review of Lassa fever, an emerging old world haemorrhagic viral disease in sub-Saharan Africa

African Journal of Clinical and Experimental Microbiology ◽

10.4314/ajcem.v17i4.9 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 282 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

O Azeez-Akande

Keyword(s):

Viral Disease ◽

Lassa Fever ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Old World ◽

Sub Saharan

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MODELING KENYA’S DOMESTIC RADICALIZATION LIKE A DISEASE BY INCORPORATING EFFORTS OF CLERGIES, REHABILITATION CENTERS AND JUSTICE SYSTEM

Journal of Applied Science, Engineering and Technology for Development ◽

10.33803/jasetd.2017.2-1.5 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Legal System ◽

Justice System ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Equilibrium Points ◽

Intervention Strategy ◽

Numerical Results ◽

Rehabilitation Centers ◽

Analytical Results

This study presents a deterministic model for domestic radicalization process in Kenya and uses the model to assess the effect of efforts of good clergies, rehabilitation centers and legal system in lowering radicalization burden. The likelihood of other drivers of radicalization to individuals who are not religious fanatics was considered. The possibility of individuals in rehabilitated subclass quitting back to violent class was considered. The equilibrium points were computed, their stabilities investigated and important thresholds determining the progression of the radicalization computed. The sensitivity analysis of control reproduction number indicates that high intervention rates hold is likely to reduce the radicalization burden. The results indicate that use of good clergies to assist individuals’ radicalized but peaceful, to recover is the best intervention strategy. Estimated numerical results and simulations were carried to confirm analytical results.

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A stability analysis on a smoking model with stochastic perturbation

International Journal of Numerical Methods for Heat &amp Fluid Flow ◽

10.1108/hff-02-2021-0140 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Anwar Zeb ◽

Sunil Kumar ◽

Almaz Tesfay ◽

Anil Kumar

Keyword(s):

Stochastic Model ◽

Stochastic System ◽

Existence And Uniqueness ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Sufficient Conditions ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Content Type ◽

Model Form ◽

The World ◽

Dynamic Stochastic

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of irregular unsettling on the smoking model in form of the stochastic model as in the deterministic model these effects are neglected for simplicity. Design/methodology/approach In this research, the authors investigate a stochastic smoking system in which the contact rate is perturbed by Lévy noise to control the trend of smoking. First, present the formulation of the stochastic model and study the dynamics of the deterministic model. Then the global positive solution of the stochastic system is discussed. Further, extinction and the persistence of the proposed system are presented on the base of the reproductive number. Findings The authors discuss the dynamics of the deterministic smoking model form and further present the existence and uniqueness of non-negative global solutions for the stochastic system. Some previous study’s mentioned in the Introduction can be improved with the help of obtaining results, graphically present in this manuscript. In this regard, the authors present the sufficient conditions for the extinction of smoking for reproductive number is less than 1. Research limitations/implications In this work, the authors investigated the dynamic stochastic smoking model with non-Gaussian noise. The authors discussed the dynamics of the deterministic smoking model form and further showed for the stochastic system the existence and uniqueness of the non-negative global solution. Some previous study’s mentioned in the Introduction can be improved with the help of obtained results, clearly shown graphically in this manuscript. In this regard, the authors presented the sufficient conditions for the extinction of smoking, if <1, which can help in the control of smoking. Motivated from this research soon, the authors will extent the results to propose new mathematical models for the smoking epidemic in the form of fractional stochastic modeling. Especially, will investigate the effective strategies for control smoking throughout the world. Originality/value This study is helpful in the control of smoking throughout the world.

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Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model

Journal of Applied Mathematics ◽

10.1155/2019/8465747 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2019 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Hailay Weldegiorgis Berhe ◽

Oluwole Daniel Makinde ◽

David Mwangi Theuri

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Nonlinear Least Squares ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Nonlinear Least Squares Problem ◽

The Stability ◽

Diarrhea Disease ◽

Effective Transmission ◽

Disease Free

In this paper, dysentery diarrhea deterministic compartmental model is proposed. The local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained using the stability theory of differential equations. Numerical simulation of the system shows that the backward bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium exists for R0>1. The system is formulated as a standard nonlinear least squares problem to estimate the parameters. The estimated reproduction number, based on the dysentery diarrhea disease data for Ethiopia in 2017, is R0=1.1208. This suggests that elimination of the dysentery disease from Ethiopia is not practical. A graphical method is used to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the importance of model parameters in the disease dynamics. It is found out that the reproduction number is the most sensitive to the effective transmission rate of dysentery diarrhea (βh). It is also demonstrated that control of the effective transmission rate is essential to stop the spreading of the disease.

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Application of Regression Trees in Optimization of Metal Forming Process

Key Engineering Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.622-623.749 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 622-623 ◽

pp. 749-755 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Krzysztof Regulski ◽

Danuta Szeliga ◽

Jan Kusiak

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Process Parameters ◽

Dual Phase Steel ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Computational Cost ◽

Regression Trees ◽

Dual Phase ◽

Forming Process ◽

Optimization Of Process Parameters ◽

Thermomechanical Processes

Application of sensitivity analysis in optimization of process parameters of production processes for innovative materials, e.g. dual phase steel, requires deterministic model of thermomechanical processes and large datasets that covers whole surface of results. Difficulties in optimization of process parameters correspond with large number of control variables, which should be considered in the technology design. Furthermore, conduction of such analysis takes the great computational cost. Presented work concerns possibility of application of regression trees, especially CART model, in preliminary analysis for sensitivity analysis. Use of data mining algorithms enables acquiring of preliminary, rough results: relationships among parameters of the hot rolling process of dual phase steel strips and rules of optimization of this process, it also does not require any apriori knowledge about thermomechanical processes.

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