scholarly journals Monetary Stability and Stock Returns: A Bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Modelling Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Common Stock ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Monetary Stability ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Us ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This paper employs a constant conditional correlation bivariate EGARCH-in-mean model to investigate interactions among the rate of inflation, stock returns and their respective volatilities. This approach is capable of accommodating all the possible causalities among the four variables simultaneously, and therefore could deliver contemporary evidence of the nexus between monetary stability and stock market. The postwar dataset of the US inflation and stock returns is divided into pre- and post- Volcker period and the estimation results show some significant changes of inflation-stock return relation, as well as indirect links between two volatilities. The core findings in this study suggest that promoting monetary stability contributes to more mutual interactions among the four variables, in particular, common stock is a more effective hedge against inflation, and the level of inflation rate is central to explaining the relation between the two volatilities.</span></p>

scholarly journals Time-Varying Conditional Co-movement between Inter-Sector Stock Returns: Evidence from Ghana Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Appiah ◽  
Abednego Forson
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Domestic Markets ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Diversification Strategies ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
Sector Returns

Investors generally exhibit home bias with regards to their investment destinations. To diversify their portfolio, such investors invest in different sectors within the domestic economy. However, such behaviour could be counter-productive in periods of increased co-movement of assets returns.  In this paper, we examine the inter-sector stock return co-movement among the major sectors of the Ghanaian economy with the view to shedding some light on the nature of assets return correlations and its implications for portfolio diversification.  A sample of 332 weekly observations of stock returns of five major sectors within the Ghanaian economy is used to undertake the analysis. Dynamic Conditional Correlation - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) techniques are applied to the weekly stock return series from January 2010 to June 2017. The DCC-GARCH model was estimated with correlation targeting and asymmetric DCC. We find dynamic conditional correlation among stock returns of all the sectors, implying that the correlation between the sector returns is time-varying. This result challenges the assumption of constant correlation among stock returns of different sectors in the domestic markets. We also find that the conditional correlation between returns of the various sectors ranges from 0.234 to 0.998, which indicates medium to very high interdependence among the stock returns. Based on the result of this study, we propose that fund managers and investors should not limit their diversification strategies to inter-sector investments since in periods of uncertainty, the ability of the investor to enjoy diversification benefits is seriously undermined.

scholarly journals The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Five South Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firmansyah Firmansyah ◽  
Shanty Oktavilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The composite price index and return of stocks are the important indicators, both as a measure of the company's portfolio performance, as well as an indicator of macroeconomic health and the aggregate investment. In addition, the stock prices are also influenced by macroeconomic variables and one of the most important is the exchange rates. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of exchange rate affects the stock returns in Southeast Asia, pre and post of the 2008 world financial crisis. By employing the daily stock market return in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore more than seventeen years from 1 September 1999 to 31 March 2017, this study utilizes Engle-Granger error correction model and cointegration approach to investigate and compare the long and short run of the structural effect of the exchange rates on stock returns. To differentiate the behavior of variables between pre and post occurrence of 2008 world financial crisis, the estimation of the model is divided into two periods. This study finds that the exchange rate growth influence the stock returns in the long and short run, and proves that the cointegration between the two variables exist in all countries. The study has the implication that the exchange rate, which the one of the fundamental measures of a country's macroeconomic health, is an important determinant of influencing stock return, even its effects are responded by the stock return in one day.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Stock Return Transmission in North and Latin America

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Other ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Standard Vector

This study empirically examines the return transmission effects between the four North and Latin American stock markets in the US, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. More specifically, applying a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model, we obtain the following interesting findings. First, (1) the return transmission effects between the four North and Latin American stock markets became much tighter in our second subsample period. Second, (2) in particular, US and Mexican stock markets are strong return transmitters in the recent period. Furthermore, (3) both in our first and second subsample periods, Brazilian stock returns do not transmit to the other three stock returns, although the other three North and Latin American stock markets affect the Brazilian stock market.

scholarly journals THE VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION OF MAIN GLOBAL STOCK'S RETURN TO INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-256
Author(s):  
Linda Karlina Sari ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Bagus Sartono
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Symmetric Model ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Stock return volatility is a very interesting phenomenon because of its impact on global financial markets. For instance, an adverse shocks in one country’s market can be transmitted to other countries’ market through a particular mechanism of transmission, causing the related markets to experience financial instability as well (Liu et al., 1998). This paper aims to determine the best model to describe the volatility of stock returns, to identify asymmetric effect of such volatility, as well as to explore the transmission of stocks return volatilities in seven countries to Indonesia’s stock market over the period 1990-2016, on a daily basis. Modeling of stock return volatility uses symmetric and asymmetric GARCH, while analysis of stock return volatility transmission utilizes Vector Autoregressive system. This study found that the asymmetric model of GARCH, resulted from fitting the right model for all seven stock markets, provides a better estimation in portraying stock return volatility than symmetric model. Moreover, the model can reveal the presence of asymmetric effects on those seven stock markets. Other finding shows that Hong Kong and Singapore markets play dominant roles in influencing volatility return of Indonesia’s stock market. In addition, the degree of interdependence between Indonesia’s and foreign stock market increased substantially after the 2007 global financial crisis, as indicated by a drastic increase of the impact of stock return volatilities in the US and UK market on the volatility of Indonesia’s stock return.

scholarly journals The Impact of Corporate Cultural Behaviour on Common Stock Return: Some Implications for Corporate Governance

2018 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-130
Author(s):  
Chamil W. Senarathne
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Common Stock ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
It Impacts ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between common stock return and corporate cultural behaviour of twenty listed firms from Shanghai Stock Exchange. The particular research questions of this study include: whether corporate cultural behaviour impacts common stock returns and under what conditions it impacts shareholder expectations and corporate governance.

scholarly journals VOLATILITY IN STOCK RETURN SERIES OF VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
Vinh Xuan Vo ◽  
Ngan Thi Kim Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Financial Policies ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Return Variance ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
Icss Algorithm

This paper studies the features of the stock return volatility using GARCH models and the presence of structural breaks in return variance of VNIndex in the Vietnam stock market by using the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using a long-span data, GARCH and GARCH in mean (GARCH-M) models seems to be effective in describing daily stock returns’ features. About structural breaks, when applying ICSS to standardized residuals filtered from GARCH (1, 1) model, the number of volatility shifts significantly decreases in comparison with the raw return series. Events corresponding to those breaks and altering the volatility pattern of stock return are found to be country-specific. Not any shifts are found during global crisis period. Further evidence also reveals that when sudden shifts are taken into account in the GARCH models, volatility persistence remarkably reduces and that the conditional variance of stock return is much affected by past trend of observed shocks and variance. Our results have important implications regarding advising investors on decisions concerning pricing equity, portfolio investment and management, hedging and forecasting. Moreover, it is also helpful for policy-makers in making and promulgating the financial policies.

scholarly journals The Influence of Exchange Rate, World Oil Price, and BI Rate on Airline Companie’s Return in Indonesian Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 321
Author(s):  
Yonatan Alvin Stefan ◽  
Robiyanto Robiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Us

In an effort to support the economic growth of Indonesia, an infrastructure development is carried out to achieve the national development. It brings positive influences on transportation companies in Indonesia. Many companies list their shares to Indonesia Stock Exchange, including PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (IDX code: GIAA) and PT. AirAsia Indonesia Tbk (IDX code: CMPP), aiming to have additional capital sources. The two companies can be such a reference for investors to make investments, but they still need to consider the macro factors attached. This study examines the influende of exchange rate, world oil price, and Bank Indonesia (BI) rates on the GIAA and CMPP stock returns. The analysis technique used was Generalize Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and daily data starting from their IPO to February 28th, 2019. The results showed that the exchange rate negatively affected the GIAA and CMPP stock returns, while the world oil prices only negatively affected the CMPP stock return, and the BI rates only negatively affected the GIAA stock return. In general, the investors are suggested not to buy the GIAA and CMPP shares when the IDR exchange rate weakens against the US dollar exchange rate.

scholarly journals The effects of policies changes on return and volatility in Vietnamese stock market

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Thi-Du Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
The Third ◽  
Egarch Model

Using the stock index data of financial sector spanned from January 2, 2009 to December 31, 2014, this study examines the effects of some policies on stock returns and volatility in Vietnamese stock market. The empirical results of EGARCH model reveal that two policies, namely, M&A and VAMC have an significantly positive impact on stock returns but they do not represent any effects on stock volatility. The third policy, regulatory reform, does not show any affection on stock return but it has an impact on the stock volatility. It implies that investors should adjust and alter their portfolio accordingly when changing policies. Besides, policymaker needs to know when they should prioritize which policy to be issued because some policies sometimes can hurt the stock market if the stock market is efficient.

scholarly journals Asset growth and stock return: evidence in the Brazilian market

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (78) ◽  
pp. 418-434
Author(s):  
Márcio André Veras Machado ◽  
Robert William Faff
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Operating Performance ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
Asset Growth

Abstract Empirical evidence suggests that firms which have experienced fast growth, through increased external funding and by making capital investments and acquisitions, tend to show bad operating performance and lower stock returns, whereas firms that have experienced contraction, through divestiture, share repurchase and debt retirement, tend to show good operating performance and higher stock returns. So, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between asset growth and stock return in the Brazilian stock market, and it tested the hypothesis that asset growth is negatively related to future stock return. To do this, the methodology was divided into 3 steps: verifying 1) if asset growth anomaly exists; 2) if this relation may be explained by the investment friction hypothesis and/or by the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis; and 3) if asset growth is a risk factor or mispricing. In addition, the analysis was carried out both at a portfolio level and an individual assets level. The sample included all the non-financial firms listed at B3 from June 1997 to June 2014. As for the main results, this study found that the asset growth effect exists, both at the portfolio level and the individual assets level, although it is sensitive to the proxy. About the effect’s materiality, this study concluded that the asset growth effect is not economically relevant, since it is not observed in big firms, regardless of the proxy used, a fact that makes it difficult to explore this effect. Another finding is that the asset growth effect may not be related to the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis and to the financial constraint hypothesis; also, this effect may be considered a risk factor, suggesting that the investment effect documented in the Brazilian stock market may be explained by the rational asset pricing perspective. Therefore, capital market professionals should take into account the asset growth factor in asset pricing models for better investment risk assessment.

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