scholarly journals Impact of solar variability on the frequency variability of the Indian summer monsoon

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-82
Author(s):  
J. R. KULKARNI ◽  
M. MUJUMDAR ◽  
S. P. GHARGE ◽  
V. SATYAN ◽  
G. B. PANT
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Solar Constant ◽  
Good Correspondence ◽  
The Impact

Earlier investigations into the epochal behavior of fluctuations in All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) have indicated the existence of a Low Frequency Mode (LFM) in the 60-70 years range. One of the probable sources of this variability may be due to changes in solar irradiance. To investigate this, time series of 128-year solar irradiance data from 1871-1998 has been examined. The Wavelet Transform (WT) method is applied to extract the LFM from these time series, which show a very good correspondence. A case study has been carried out to test the sensitivity of AISMR to solar irradiance. The General Circulation Model (GCM) of the Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) has been integrated in the control run (using the climatological value of solar constant i.e., 1365 Wm-2) and in the enhanced solar constant condition (enhanced by 10 Wm-2) for summer monsoon season of 1986. The study shows that the large scale atmospheric circulation over the Indian region, in the enhanced solar constant scenario is favorable to good monsoon activity. A conceptual model for the impact of solar irradiance on the AISMR at LFM is also suggested.

scholarly journals Theoretical aspects of the onset of Indian summer monsoon from perturbed orography simulations in a GCM

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 2075-2089 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Chakraborty ◽  
R. S. Nanjundiah ◽  
J. Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A theory is proposed to determine the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The onset of ISM is delayed substantially in the absence of global orography. The impact of orography over different parts of the Earth on the onset of ISM has also been investigated using five additional perturbed simulations. The large difference in the date of onset of ISM in these simulations has been explained by a new theory based on the Surface Moist Static Energy (SMSE) and vertical velocity at the mid-troposphere. It is found that onset occurs only after SMSE crosses a threshold value and the large-scale vertical motion in the middle troposphere becomes upward. This study shows that both dynamics and thermodynamics play profound roles in the onset of the monsoon.

Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Using Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts: Effects of Realistic Initialization of the Atmosphere

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (3) ◽  
pp. 778-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Alessandri ◽  
Andrea Borrelli ◽  
Annalisa Cherchi ◽  
Stefano Materia ◽  
Antonio Navarra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
Mean State

Abstract Ensembles of retrospective 2-month dynamical forecasts initiated on 1 May are used to predict the onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period 1989–2005. The subseasonal predictions (SSPs) are based on a coupled general circulation model and recently they have been upgraded by the realistic initialization of the atmosphere with initial conditions taken from reanalysis. Two objective large-scale methods based on dynamical-circulation and hydrological indices are applied to detect the ISM onset. The SSPs show some skill in forecasting earlier-than-normal ISM onsets, while they have difficulty in predicting late onsets. It is shown that significant contribution to the skill in forecasting early ISM onsets comes from the newly developed initialization of the atmosphere from reanalysis. On one hand, atmospheric initialization produces a better representation of the atmospheric mean state in the initial conditions, leading to a systematically improved monsoon onset sequence. On the other hand, the initialization of the atmosphere allows some skill in forecasting the northward-propagating intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. The northward-propagating intraseasonal modes trigger the monsoon in some early-onset years. The realistic phase initialization of these modes improves the forecasts of the associated earlier-than-normal monsoon onsets. The prediction of late onsets is not noticeably improved by the initialization of the atmosphere. It is suggested that late onsets of the monsoon are too far away from the start date of the forecasts to conserve enough memory of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) anomalies and of the improved representation of the mean state in the initial conditions.

An Examination of Climate Change on Extreme Heat Events and Climate–Mortality Relationships in Large U.S. Cities

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Greene ◽  
Laurence S. Kalkstein ◽  
David M. Mills ◽  
Jason Samenow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Synoptic Classification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract This study examines the impact of a changing climate on heat-related mortality in 40 large cities in the United States. A synoptic climatological procedure, the spatial synoptic classification, is used to evaluate present climate–mortality relationships and project how potential climate changes might affect these values. Specifically, the synoptic classification is combined with downscaled future climate projections for the decadal periods of 2020–29, 2045–55, and 2090–99 from a coupled atmospheric–oceanic general circulation model. The results show an increase in excessive heat event (EHE) days and increased heat-attributable mortality across the study cities with the most pronounced increases projected to occur in the Southeast and Northeast. This increase becomes more dramatic toward the end of the twenty-first century as the anticipated impact of climate change intensifies. The health impact associated with different emissions scenarios is also examined. These results suggest that a “business as usual” approach to greenhouse gas emissions mitigation could result in twice as many heat-related deaths by the end of the century than a lower emissions scenario. Finally, a comparison of future estimates of heat-related mortality during EHEs is presented using algorithms developed during two different, although overlapping, time periods, one that includes some recent large-scale significant EHE intervention strategies (1975–2004), and one without (1975–95). The results suggest these public health responses can significantly decrease heat-related mortality.

scholarly journals Global atmospheric response to specific linear combinations of the main SST modes. Part I: numerical experiments and preliminary results

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 1066-1077 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Trzaska ◽  
V. Moron ◽  
B. Fontaine
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This article investigates through numerical experiments the controversial question of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena on climate according to large-scale and regional-scale interhemispheric thermal contrast. Eight experiments (two considering only inversed Atlantic thermal anomalies and six combining ENSO warm phase with large-scale interhemispheric contrast and Atlantic anomaly patterns) were performed with the Météo-France atmospheric general circulation model. The definition of boundary conditions from observed composites and principal components is presented and preliminary results concerning the month of August, especially over West Africa and the equatorial Atlantic are discussed. Results are coherent with observations and show that interhemispheric and regional scale sea-surface-temperature anomaly (SST) patterns could significantly modulate the impact of ENSO phenomena: the impact of warm-phase ENSO, relative to the atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) climatology, seems stronger when embedded in global and regional SSTA patterns representative of the post-1970 conditions [i.e. with temperatures warmer (colder) than the long-term mean in the southern hemisphere (northern hemisphere)]. Atlantic SSTAs may also play a significant role.

scholarly journals A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (21) ◽  
pp. 7869-7887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Randal Koster ◽  
Max Suarez
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Niña conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric–stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

scholarly journals Influence of the Pacific–Japan Pattern on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 3943-3958 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Srinivas ◽  
Jasti S. Chowdary ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
C. Gnanaseelan ◽  
Anant Parekh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study discusses the impact of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern on Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and its possible physical linkages through coupled and uncoupled pathways. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of 850-hPa relative vorticity over the western North Pacific (WNP) is used to extract the PJ pattern as the leading mode of circulation variability. The partial correlation analysis of the leading principal component reveals that the positive PJ pattern, which features anticyclonic and cyclonic low-level circulation anomalies over the tropical WNP and around Japan respectively, enhances the rainfall over the southern and northern parts of India. The northwestward propagating Rossby waves, in response to intensified convection over the Maritime Continent reinforced by low-level convergence in the southern flank of westward extended tropical WNP anticyclone, increase rainfall over southern peninsular India. Meanwhile, the anomalous moisture transport from the warm Bay of Bengal due to anomalous southerlies at the western edge of the low-level anticyclone extending from the tropical WNP helps to enhance the rainfall over northern India. The atmospheric general circulation model forced with climatological sea surface temperature confirms this atmospheric pathway through the westward propagating Rossby waves. Furthermore, the north Indian Ocean (NIO) warming induced by easterly wind anomalies along the southern periphery of the tropical WNP–NIO anticyclone enhances local convection, which in turn feeds back to the WNP convection anomalies. This coupled nature via interbasin feedback between the PJ pattern and NIO is confirmed using coupled model sensitivity experiments. These results are important in identifying new sources of ISM variability/predictability on the interannual time scale.

scholarly journals On improving the ability of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model for dynamical seasonal prediction of the extreme seasons of the Indian summer monsoon

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-360
Author(s):  
D.R. SIKKA ◽  
SATYABANBISHOYI RATNA
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Dynamical Seasonal Prediction

The paper is devoted to examine the ability of a high-resolution National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) T170/L42 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), for exploring its utility for long-range dynamical prediction of seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on 5-members ensemble for the hindcast mode 20-year (1985-2004) period with observed global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as boundary condition and 6-year (2005-2010) period in the forecast-mode with NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) SSTs as boundary condition. ISMR simulations are examined on five day (pentad) rainfall average basis. It is shown that the model simulated ISMR, based on 5-members ensemble average basis had limited skill in simulating extreme ISMR seasons (drought/excess ISMR). However, if the ensemble averaging is restricted to similar ensemble members either in the overall run of pentad-wise below (B) and above (A) normal rainfall events, as determined by the departure for thethreshold value given by coefficient of variability (CV) for the respective pentads based on IMD observed climatology, or during the season as a whole on the basis of percentage anomaly of ISMR from the seasonal climatology, the foreshadowing of drought/excess monsoon seasons improved considerably. Our strategy of improving dynamical seasonal prediction of ISMR was based on the premise that the intra-seasonal variability (ISV) and intra-annual variability (IAV) are intimately connected and characterized by large scale perturbations westward moving (10-20 day) and northward moving (30-60 day) modes of monsoon ISV during the summer monsoon season. As such the cumulative excess of B events in the simulated season would correspond to drought season and vice-versa. The paper also examines El Niño-Monsoon connections of the simulated ISMR series and they appear to have improved considerably in the proposed methodology. This strategy was particularly found to improve for foreshadowing of droughts. Based on results of the study a strategy is proposed for using the matched signal for simulated ISMR based on excess B over A events and vice-versa for drought or excess ISMR category. The probability distribution for the forecast seasonal ISMR on category basis is also proposed to be based on the relative ratio of similar ensemble members and total ensembles on percentage basis. The paper also discusses that extreme monsoon season are produced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes in a combined manner and hence stresses to improve prediction of IOD mode in ocean-atmosphere coupled model just as it has happened for the prediction ENSO mode six to nine months in advance.

Critical Roles of the Stratiform Rainfall in Sustaining the Madden–Julian Oscillation: GCM Experiments*

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (14) ◽  
pp. 3939-3959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiouhua Fu ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Direct Interaction ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratiform Rainfall

Abstract This study assesses the impact of stratiform rainfall (i.e., large-scale rainfall) in the development and maintenance of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in a contemporary general circulation model: ECHAM4 AGCM and its coupled version. To examine how the model MJO would change as the stratiform proportion (the ratio of the stratiform versus total rainfall) varies, a suite of sensitivity experiments has been carried out under a weather forecast setting and with three 20-yr free integrations. In these experiments, the detrainment rates of deep/shallow convections that function as a water supply to stratiform clouds were modified, which results in significant changes of stratiform rainfall. Both the forecast experiments and long-term free integrations indicate that only when the model produces a significant proportion (≥30%) of stratiform rainfall can a robust MJO be sustained. When the stratiform rainfall proportion becomes small, the tropical rainfall in the model is dominated by drizzle-like regimes with neither eastward-propagating nor northward-propagating MJO being sustained. It is found that the latent heat release of stratiform rainfall significantly warms up the upper troposphere. The covariability between the heating and positive temperature anomaly produces eddy available potential energy that sustains the MJO against dissipation and also allows the direct interaction between the precipitation heating and large-scale low-frequency circulations, which is critical to the development and maintenance of the MJO. This finding calls for better representations of stratiform rainfall and its connections with the convective component in GCMs in order to improve their simulations of the MJO.

scholarly journals The impact of precipitation evaporation on the atmospheric aerosol distribution in EC-Earth v3.2.0

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1443-1465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco de Bruine ◽  
Maarten Krol ◽  
Twan van Noije ◽  
Philippe Le Sager ◽  
Thomas Röckmann
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Earth Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Aerosol Distribution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The representation of aerosol–cloud interaction in global climate models (GCMs) remains a large source of uncertainty in climate projections. Due to its complexity, precipitation evaporation is either ignored or taken into account in a simplified manner in GCMs. This research explores various ways to treat aerosol resuspension and determines the possible impact of precipitation evaporation and subsequent aerosol resuspension on global aerosol burdens and distribution. The representation of aerosol wet deposition by large-scale precipitation in the EC-Earth model has been improved by utilising additional precipitation-related 3-D fields from the dynamical core, the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) general circulation model, in the chemistry and aerosol module Tracer Model, version 5 (TM5). A simple approach of scaling aerosol release with evaporated precipitation fraction leads to an increase in the global aerosol burden (+7.8 to +15 % for different aerosol species). However, when taking into account the different sizes and evaporation rate of raindrops following Gong et al. (2006), the release of aerosols is strongly reduced, and the total aerosol burden decreases by −3.0 to −8.5 %. Moreover, inclusion of cloud processing based on observations by Mitra et al. (1992) transforms scavenged small aerosol to coarse particles, which enhances removal by sedimentation and hence leads to a −10 to −11 % lower aerosol burden. Finally, when these two effects are combined, the global aerosol burden decreases by −11 to −19 %. Compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, aerosol optical depth (AOD) is generally underestimated in most parts of the world in all configurations of the TM5 model and although the representation is now physically more realistic, global AOD shows no large improvements in spatial patterns. Similarly, the agreement of the vertical profile with Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite measurements does not improve significantly. We show, however, that aerosol resuspension has a considerable impact on the modelled aerosol distribution and needs to be taken into account.

scholarly journals Impact of absorbing aerosols on the simulation of climate over the Indian region in an atmospheric general circulation model

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1421-1434 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Chakraborty ◽  
S. K. Satheesh ◽  
R. S. Nanjundiah ◽  
J. Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Indian Region ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Absorbing Aerosols ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (such as soot) on the climate over the Indian region has been studied using the NCMRWF general circulation model. The absorbing aerosols increase shortwave radiative heating of the lower troposphere and reduce the heating at the surface. These effects have been incorporated as heating of the lower troposphere (up to 700hPa) and cooling over the continental surface based on INDOEX measurements. The heating effect is constant in the pre-monsoon season and reduces to zero during the monsoon season. It is shown that even in the monsoon season when the aerosol forcing is zero, there is an overall increase in rainfall and a reduction in surface temperature over the Indian region. The rainfall averaged over the Tropics shows a small reduction in most of the months during the January to September period. The impact of aerosol forcing, the model's sensitivity to this forcing and its interaction with model-physics has been studied by changing the cumulus parameterization from the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) scheme to the Kuo scheme. During the pre-monsoon season the major changes in precipitation occur in the oceanic Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where both the schemes show an increase in precipitation. This result is similar to that reported in Chung2002. On the other hand, during the monsoon season the changes in precipitation in the continental region are different in the SAS and Kuo schemes. It is shown that the heating due to absorbing aerosols changes the vertical moist-static stability of the atmosphere. The difference in the precipitation changes in the two cumulus schemes is on account of the different responses in the two parameterization schemes to changes in vertical stability. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (tropical meteorology; precipitation)

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