scholarly journals Spectral characteristics of Atlantic seasonal storm frequency

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 597-608
Author(s):  
R. P. KANE
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Maximum Entropy Method ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Oscillation Phenomenon ◽  
Storm Frequency

lkj & o"kZ 1900&2000 dh vof/k esa vVykafVd egklkxj dh rwQkuh xfrfof/k ¼ftUgas rwQku] izpaM rwQku] vkfn uke fn, x, gaS½ ds fofHkUu lwpdkadksa ds dky Jsf.k;ksa dk vuqØe fo’ys"k.k ,e-b-,e-¼vf/kdre ,uVªkWih fof/k½ }kjk rFkk mldh vkofrZrk ds vk;ke ,e- vkj- ,- ¼cgqq lekJ;.k fo’ys"k.k½ }kjk izkIr fd, x, gaSA fiNys dqN o"kksZa ds vkadM+ksa ¼o"kZ 1950 ls vkxss½ ds vuqlkj budh egRoiw.kZ vkofrZrk,¡ n’kd lfgr( f}okf"kZd dYi] f=okf"kZd dYi {ks=ksa rFkk buls mPp {ks=ksa esa Hkh jghA 2-40 o"kkasZ esa 50 feyhckj ds fuEu v{kka’k {ks=h; iou vkSj 2-40 ,oa 2-85 o"kkasZ ds b- ,u- ,l- vks- ¼,y uhuks/nf{k.kh nksyu½ ?kVuk ds ln`’k f}o"khZ dYi nksyu {ks= esa ¼3&4 o"kkasZ½ rwQku lwpdkad 2-40 rFkk 2-85 o"kksZa ds djhc pje ij jgsA mPp vkofrZrk okys {ks=ksa esa rwQku lwpdkad 4-5&5-5-] 8&9] 11&12 rFkk 14&15 o"kkasZ esa pje ij jgs tcfd b- ,u- ,l- vks- 7-4 ,oa 12&14 o"kksZa esa pje ij jgsA cgq n’kdh; Js.kh esa 28&34]40]50&53]61&63]~70 ,oa ~80 o"kksZa esa ¼ijUrq fHkUu lwpdkadksa ds fy, fHkUu&fHkUu½ rwQku pje ij jgs tks LFky ,oa leqnzh lrg ds rkiekuksa ds leku pje ekuksa ds vuq:Ik jgsA dqy lwpdkadksa esa 90 o"kkZsa esa yxHkx 50 izfr’kr dh m/oZ izo`fr jghA     The time series of the various indices of Atlantic storm activity (number of named storms, hurricanes, etc.) for 1900-2000 were subjected to spectral analysis by MEM (Maximum Entropy Method) and amplitudes of the periodicities were obtained by MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis).  For recent data (1950 onwards), significant periodicities were in the quasi-biennial, quasi-triennial regions and also in higher regions, including decadal. In the QBO region (2-3 years), storm indices had peaks near 2.40 and 2.85 years, similar to 2.40 years of 50 hPa low latitude zonal wind and 2.40 and 2.85 years of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. In the QTO region (3-4 years), storm indices and ENSO had common peaks near 3.5 years. In higher periodicity regions, storm indices had peaks at 4.5-5.5, 8-9, 11-12 and 14-15 years, while ENSO had peaks at 7.4 and 12-14 years. In the multi-decadal range, storm peaks were at 28-34, 40, 50-53, 61-63, ~70 and ~80 years (but different for different indices), which matched with similar peaks in land and sea surface temperatures. Some indices had large uptrends, ~50% in 90 years.

scholarly journals Quasi-biennial and quasi-triennial oscillations in the growth rates of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-358
Author(s):  
R. P. KANE
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Linear Increase ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Prominent Peak

The 12-monthly running means of CFC-11 and CFC-12 were examined for 1977-1992. As observed by earlier workers, during 1977-1988, there was a rapid, almost linear increase of these compounds, ~70% in the northern and ~77% in the southern hemisphere. From 1988 up to 1992, growth rates were slower, more so for CFC-11 in the northern hemisphere. Superposed on this pattern were QBO, QTO (Quasi-Biennial and Quasi-Triennial Oscillations). A spectral analysis of the various series indicated the following. The 50 hPa low latitude zonal wind had one prominent QBO peak at 2.58 years and much smaller peaks at 2.00 (QBO) and 5.1 years. The Southern oscillation index represented by (T-D), Tahiti minus Darwin atmospheric pressure, had a prominent peak at 4.1 years and a smaller peak at 2.31 years. CFC-11 had only one significant peak at 3.7 years in the southern hemisphere, roughly similar to the 4.1 year (T-D) peak. CFC-12 had prominent QBO (2.16-2.33 years) in both the hemispheres and a QTO (3.6 years) in the southern hemisphere. For individual locations, CFC-11 showed barely significant QBO in the range (1.95-3.07 years), while CFC 12 showed strong QBO in the range (1.86-2.38 years). The difference in the spectral characteristics of CFC-11 and CFC 12 time series is attributed to differences in their lifetimes (44 and 180 years), source emission rates and transport processes.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Dynamic Uncertainty of Rolling Bearing Vibration Performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Ye ◽  
Xintao Xia ◽  
Zhen Chang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Maximum Entropy Method ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Rolling Bearing ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Performance Time ◽  
Dynamic Uncertainty ◽  
Bearing Vibration ◽  
Vibration Performance

The variation trend, failure trajectory, probability distribution, and other information vary with time and working conditions for rolling bearing vibration performance, which makes the evaluation and prediction of the evolution process difficult for the performance reliability. In view of this, the chaos theory, grey bootstrap method, and maximum entropy method were effectively fused to propose a mathematical model for the dynamic uncertainty evaluation of rolling bearing vibration performance. After reconstructing the phase space of the vibration performance time series, four local prediction methods were applied to predict the vibration values of bearings to verify the effectiveness and validity of chaos theory. The estimated true value and estimated interval were calculated using the grey bootstrap method (GBM) and maximum entropy method. Finally, the validity of the proposed model was verified by comparing the probability that the original data fall into the estimated interval with the given confidence level. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the variation trend and failure trajectory of the vibration performance time series so as to realize the dynamic monitoring of the evolution process for rolling bearing vibration performance online.

scholarly journals Interannual variability of atmospheric Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-168
Author(s):  
R. P. KANE
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Nitrous Oxide ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Pressure Difference ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis ◽  
Oscillation Phenomenon

The 12-monthly running means of N2O measured at seven locations during 1977-91 were used for obtaining the yearly percentage growth rate series (4 values per year, centered 3 months apart), which were subjected to MESA (Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis). The spectra revealed significant QBO and QTO (Quasi-biennial and Quasi-triennial oscillations) with QBO periods in the range (2.04-2.38) years and QTO periods near 4.0 years. These do not resemble the QBO of 2.58 years of the 50 hPa low latitude wnal wind but do resemble the QBO of 2.31 years and the 4.1 year periods of the Southern oscillation phenomenon, represented by Tahiti minus Darwin sea level atmospheric pressure difference (T-D).

scholarly journals Trends and fluctuations of the cyclonic systems over North Indian Ocean

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-46
Author(s):  
D. V. BHASKAR RAO ◽  
C. V. NAIDU ◽  
B. R. SRINIVASA RAO
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Maximum Entropy Method ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Pass Filter ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
High Pass ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

The data of the monthly cyclone frequencies over North Indian Ocean for the period 1877-1998 has been analysed to study the long-term trends and fluctuations. Analysis has been made separately for depressions and cyclones for the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons along with the annual frequencies. The data was subjected to 11-year moving averages and the epochs of increasing and decreasing trends have been identified. A consistent decreasing trend after 1950s is a notable feature.   The time series of the monthly cyclone frequency were passed through a high-pass filter to eliminate periods greater than 21 years and then subjected to spectrum analysis using Maximum Entropy Method to obtain dominant periodicities. Three significant periodicities at 2.2-2.8; 3.5-6.5 and 10-15 years have been identified which could be attributed to QBO, ENSO and decadal frequencies.

Optimal Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Forcing of North American Drought

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (14) ◽  
pp. 3907-3917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Ik Shin ◽  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh ◽  
Robert S. Webb
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North American ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Sst Anomaly

Abstract The optimal anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern for forcing North American drought is identified through atmospheric general circulation model integrations in which the response of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is determined for each of 43 prescribed localized SST anomaly “patches” in a regular array over the tropical oceans. The robustness and relevance of the optimal pattern are established through the consistency of results obtained using two different models, and also by the good correspondence of the projection time series of historical tropical SST anomaly fields on the optimal pattern with the time series of the simulated PDSI in separate model integrations with prescribed time-varying observed global SST fields for 1920–2005. It is noteworthy that this optimal drought forcing pattern differs markedly in the Pacific Ocean from the dominant SST pattern associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and also shows a large sensitivity of North American drought to Indian and Atlantic Ocean SSTs.

Sea Surface Temperatures along the Coast of British Columbia: Regional Evidence for a Warming Trend

1990 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 346-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard J. Freeland
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Sea-surface temperature has been measured at a large number of sites around the coast of British Columbia for periods well in excess of 50 yr. These time series are long enough to give clear evidence of a large scale secular warming. For the purposes of this paper the daily SST observations are decimated to monthly mean values. The observations are of particular value because observation methods have remained invariant throughout the observation period, and many of the stations are remote from civilisation allowing trends to be estimated that have not been contaminated with urbanization effects. Eighteen out of nineteen stations that are currently being sampled show a warming trend, the one that shows a cooling trend is the shortest time series, only in its eleventh year. The sea-surface temperatures at sites exposed to the Pacific Ocean show very high coherence with global scale air temperature variations but no relationship to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation signal.

scholarly journals A Verified Estimation of the El Niño Index Niño-3.4 since 1877

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (14) ◽  
pp. 3979-3992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucia Bunge ◽  
Allan J. Clarke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Monthly Time Series ◽  
Sst Anomaly

Abstract Decadal and longer time-scale variabilities of the best known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are poorly correlated before 1950, and so knowledge of interdecadal variability and trend in ENSO indexes is dubious, especially before 1950. To address this problem, the authors constructed and compared physically related monthly ENSO indexes. The base index was El Niño index Niño-3.4, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly averaged over the equatorial box bounded by 5°N, 5°S, 170°W, and 120°W; the authors also constructed indexes based on the nighttime marine air temperature over the Niño-3.4 region (NMAT3.4) and an equatorial Southern Oscillation index (ESOI). The Niño-3.4 index used the “uninterpolated” sea surface temperature data from the Second Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadSST2), a dataset with smaller uncertainty and better geographical coverage than others. In constructing the index, data at each point for a given month were weighted to take into account the typical considerable spatial variation of the SST anomaly over the Niño-3.4 box as well as the number of observations at that point for that month. Missing monthly data were interpolated and “noise” was reduced by using the result that Niño-3.4 has essentially the same calendar month amplitude structure every year. This 12-point calendar month structure from April to March was obtained by an EOF analysis over the last 58 yr and then was fitted to the entire monthly time series using a least squares approach. Equivalent procedures were followed for NMAT3.4 and ESOI. The new ESOI uses Darwin atmospheric pressure in the west and is based on theory that allows for variations of the atmospheric boundary layer depth across the Pacific. The new Niño-3.4 index was compared with NMAT3.4, the new ESOI, and with a record of δ18O from a coral at Palmyra, an atoll inside the region Niño-3.4 (Cobb et al.). Correlation coefficients between Niño-3.4 and the three monthly indexes mentioned above before 1950 are 0.84, 0.87, 0.73 and 0.93, 0.86, 0.73 for decadal time scales. These relatively high correlation coefficients between physically related but independent monthly time series suggest that this study has improved knowledge of low-frequency variability. All four indexes are consistent with a rise in Niño-3.4 SST and the weakening of the equatorial Pacific winds since about 1970.

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