Amtsinhaber-Effekte in „unsicheren“ Wahlkreisen – eine Analyse anhand der Landtagswahlen in Brandenburg, Sachsen und Thüringen (1990 bis 2019)

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-366
Author(s):  
Hendrik Träger ◽  
Jan Pollex ◽  
Marc S. Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Eine Analyse ◽  
German Länder ◽  
East German ◽  
Election Results

The elections in three East German Länder in 2019 did not only result in significant changes in the proportional vote share but also in severe shifts in constituency results between directly elected deputies . Against this backdrop this article analyses the election results in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia since 1990 . It shows that most of the constituencies have become contested . Hence, concepts dealing with “safe” constituencies for one party can, particularly in an increasingly fragmented party system, no longer explain election outcomes . Instead, the relevance of candidates for their respective electoral performances is taken into account . Overall, our results clearly suggest an incumbency factor .

Presidentialism and the Effect of Electoral Law in Postcommunist Systems

2005 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry D. Clark ◽  
Jill N. Wittrock
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Representation Systems ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
Majority Control ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Duverger's Law ◽  
Electoral Law ◽  
Mixed Systems

Efforts to test Duverger’s law in the new democracies of postcommunist Europe have had mixed results. Research argues that mixed systems have an effect on the number of effective parties that is distinct from that of single-mandate district and proportional representation systems. Less attention has been given to the effect of other institutions on the party system, particularly strong presidents. Analyzing election results in postcommunist Europe, the authors find support for Duverger’s law after controlling for the strength of the executive. They argue that strong presidents substantially reduce the incentive for parties to seize control of the legislative agenda. Hence, the restraint that electoral systems exercise on the proliferation of parties and independent candidates is weakened. The authors find that a further consequence of strong presidents is that the incentive for majority control of committees and the legislative agenda is weakened.

Impact of Candidate Selection Systems on Election Results: Evidence from Taiwan before and after the Change in Electoral Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. 152-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dafydd Fell
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Candidate Selection ◽  
Campaign Strategies ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Extensive Coverage ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Election Results

AbstractA central challenge for scholars of party politics is to explain parties' electoral success or failure. Campaign strategies, candidate personalities, electoral systems, parties' issue emphasis and policy positions all receive extensive coverage in the literature. One variable that has been neglected is the role of nomination systems in election results. This is surprising considering how politicians often blame candidate selection failures for disappointing electoral outcomes and then reform nomination mechanisms in the hope of improving future election prospects. In this study I examine the relationship between nomination systems and electoral results in Taiwan before and after the change in electoral systems. I show that candidate selection methods have played an important role in shaping Taiwan's party system under the old and new electoral systems.

Towards an East German party system? The local elections in brandenburg in 1993

1994 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 277-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhard Crome ◽  
Jochen Franzke
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
East German

Mexico: New Democracy with Old Parties?

Politics ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 172-180
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Casillas ◽  
Alejandro Mújica
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party System ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Contemporary History ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Election Results ◽  
New Democracy

Mexico's 2000 presidential election was one of the most important political events in the nation's contemporary history. The victory of the National Action Party (PAN) and Vicente Fox, the first ‘non-official’ candidate ever to win a Mexican presidential election, surprised both local and world observers. This article comprises four parts. Part I very briefly places the election in historical perspective. In Part II, each of the three front-runners in the contest is profiled. Part III includes a systematic analysis of the general election results by constituencies or other territorial units, and features tabulated data. Part IV addresses the development of political parties and the party system before and after the elections.

Radical Party Politics and Mobilization Against It in the Slovak Parliamentary Elections 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-352
Author(s):  
Oľga Gyárfášová ◽  
Peter Učeň
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Main Research ◽  
The People ◽  
Election Results

This article reviews certain trends in popular support for political parties – especially new ones – as they manifested themselves prior to and during the 2020 parliamentary elections. It summarizes the ways in which demand for change was expressed before and during the election through the election results and the data on party supporters. It concludes that the thesis on the radicalization of new generations of party-political challenges in the Slovak polity did not hold true in 2020. The main research question regards the possibility of conceptualizing the rise of two new moderate political parties, PS/Together and For the People, as a counter-mobilization against the previous emergence of radical anti-establishment and anti-systemic challengers within the party system.

Social Democracy in Europe: a Comparative Examination

1982 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Party System ◽  
Social Democracy ◽  
British Politics ◽  
North West ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Comparative Examination ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
New Phase

DEVELOPMENTS IN BRITISH POLITICS BETWEEN JULY AND NOVember 1981 - Roy Jenkins's near-win in the Warrington byelection, the capture of Croydon North-West by the Liberal/SDP Alliance and Shirley Williams's triumph in Crosby - strongly suggest that the British party-system may never be the same again. Although it was possible to argue that the Warrington result reflected no more than the impact of a famous candidate on a situation of public hostility towards the two major parties in a working-class constituency, the Croydon result, which gave victory to a Liberal candidate with a long record of earlier failures, and which gave the Alliance 40 per cent of the votes in a seat where the Liberal Party's organization had been almost as non-existent as the SDP's, cannot be dismissed so easily. These by-election results, together with an impressive run of local election successes for the Alliance, and continuing evidence from the opinion polls, strongly suggest that British politics, as the SDP's leaders have proclaimed, must be entering a new phase.

scholarly journals Backing the Incumbent in Difficult Times: The Electoral Impact of Wildfires

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 469-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Ramos ◽  
Carlos Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Vote Share ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election ◽  
Difficult Times

How do voters react to shocks that are outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral impact of wildfires in Spain in the period 1983-2014. This context allows us to study (a) the effects of fires at different locations and times, as opposed to a specific disaster; (b) the heterogeneous effects by time relative to election day; and (c) the effects on elections for all levels of government. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that an accidental fire up to 9 months ahead of a municipal election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by up to 8 percentage points, whereas a fire earlier in the term does not affect the election results. In addition, fires have no effect on regional or national elections. We discuss the possible mechanisms behind the results in light of the main theories on electoral accountability.

scholarly journals Comparison of agrarian political  parties in selected Central European states after 1989

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 544-553
Author(s):  
P. Blažek ◽  
M. Kubalek
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political System ◽  
Party System ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Agriculture Modernization ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
The City

This study deals with the founding and development of agrarian political parties and movements in selected postcommunist states (with the emphasis put on the Czech party system in the early 1990‘s). The topic is discussed from the point of view of classic political science theories, namely the historical conflict approach of Stein Rokkan and Seymour Martin Lipset, complemented with Derek Urwin’s theory regarding emergence of agrarian parties as a means of defense of country against urbanization. The results of research into the urban – rural cleavage and its influence on the genesis of agrarian political parties in selected post-communist countries after 1989 seem to support the above mentioned theories (even though those were originally formulated for a much earlier period when the Western party systems were first coming into existence. These can be applied also to the Czech environment, where several profession-based political parties were established in the early 1990’s, some of which were concerned with the defense of peasants’ and farmers’ interests. The attempts to create profession-based parties in the Czech political system were destined to fail for several reasons. The first was a striking ideological profiling of the bipolar party spectrum, causing general parties to pick up the themes and voters concerned with economic recession, and radicalization of electorate. The second reason lied in the diminishing numbers of potential voters, a result of agriculture modernization and general urbanization of society, which caused that the city-country conflict was reflected in the election results only marginally. The result was similar to other post-Soviet states, with a specific exception of Poland: agrarian parties and movements lost their former influence.

Dragging Them over the Finish Line

2020 ◽  
pp. 168-193
Author(s):  
Dov H. Levin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Test ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Finish Line ◽  
Full Support ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Line P

Chapter 6 begins the analysis of the effects of partisan electoral interventions on election results through a statistical test, using PEIG, of the four main hypotheses developed in Chapter 2. Full support is found for the first three hypotheses. Partisan electoral interventions are found to increase the vote share of the preferred candidate/party by 3% on average—enough in many cases to determine the result. Overt interventions are found to be more effective than covert ones in both the statistical and the substantive sense. However, unlike in later elections, electoral interventions in founding elections usually harm the aided side, reducing its vote share by 6.7% on average. The chapter concludes by examining whether there are any significant differences in the effectiveness of the specific assistance that is provided by the foreign power and/or the overall magnitude of this aid.

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