Land use, land cover and climate change impacts on the bird community in and around Lake Zeway, Ethiopia

AbstractThe present paper aims to quantify how human-made changes in the upstream exacerbate climate change impacts on water birds’ habitat in the downstream. To reduce climate change effects and design adaptation policies, it is important to identify whether human activities understate or overstate the effects of climate change in a region on its inhabitants. This paper also shows how human activities may magnify climate change impacts both locally and regionally. Land-use/land-cover change as the important sign of human-made destruction in an ecosystem was detected in the upstream of the Helmand basin over 40 years. Owing to conflicts in Afghanistan, studies on this basin are rare. The water bird’s habitat suitability maps during the study period were created using the maximum entropy model and the multi-criteria evaluation method. The post-classification method was applied to show the land-use/land-cover change over 40 years. These results were compared to the area of suitable habitat for water birds. The findings of these analyses indicated that the irrigated farming was expanded in the upstream despite climate change and water limitation, while the water birds’ habitat in the downstream was declined. These results revealed that the unsustainable pattern of farming and blocking water behind dams in the upstream exacerbated the negative effects of climate change on water birds’ habitat in the downstream. The significance of this study is to demonstrate the role of human in exacerbating climate change impacts both locally and regionally.

Download Full-text

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8070083 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. 83

Author(s):

Geofrey Gabiri ◽

Bernd Diekkrüger ◽

Kristian Näschen ◽

Constanze Leemhuis ◽

Roderick van der Linden ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Rainy Season ◽

Hydrological Processes ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Lulc Change ◽

Inland Valley ◽

Headwater Catchment

The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976–2005) and future climate (2021–2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase.

Download Full-text

Impacts of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Climate Change on the Regional Climate in the Central Vietnam

Water Resources Development and Management - Land Use and Climate Change Interactions in Central Vietnam ◽

10.1007/978-981-10-2624-9_9 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 143-151 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Patrick Laux ◽

Phuong Ngoc Bich Nguyen ◽

Johannes Cullmann ◽

Harald Kunstmann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Central Vietnam

Download Full-text

Combined impact of Climate change and Land use on water quality in the mid-21st century: A modelling study for a highly industrialized stretch of Ganga River

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-795 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sneha Santy ◽

Pradeep Mujumdar ◽

Govindasamy Bala

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Ganga River ◽

Quality Analysis ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Land Use Land Cover

High industrial discharge, excessive agricultural activities, untreated sewage disposal make the Kanpur region one of the most contaminated stretches of the Ganga river. This study analyses water quality for the combined future climate change and land use land cover scenarios for mid-century for a 238km long Kanpur stretch of Ganga river. Climate change projections from 21 General Circulation Models for the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are considered and Land use Land Cover (LULC) projections are made with QGIS software. Streamflow and water temperature are modelled using the HEC-HMS model and a Water-Air temperature regression model, respectively. Water quality analysis is simulated using the QUAL2K model in terms of nine water quality parameters, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, total phosphorus and faecal coliform. Climate change impact alone is projected to result in degraded water quality in the future. Combined climate change and LULC change may further degrade water quality, especially at the study area's critical locations. Our study will provide guidance to policymakers to safeguard the Ganga river from further pollution.

Download Full-text

Effect of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change on River Flow and Soil Loss in Didessa River Basin, South West Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6010002 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 2 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Kinati Chimdessa ◽

Shoeb Quraishi ◽

Asfaw Kebede ◽

Tena Alamirew

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

River Basin ◽

Sediment Yield ◽

Soil Loss ◽

River Flow ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

The Impact ◽

Soil Losses

In the Didessa river basin, which is found in Ethiopia, the human population number is increasing at an alarming rate. The conversion of forests, shrub and grasslands into cropland has increased in parallel with the population increase. The land use/land cover change (LULCC) that has been undertaken in the river basin combined with climate change may have affected the Didessa river flow and soil loss. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the impact of LULCC on the Didessa river flow and soil loss under historical and future climates. Land use/land cover (LULC) of the years 1986, 2001 and 2015 were independently combined with the historical climate to assess their individual impacts on river flow and soil loss. Further, the impact of future climates under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios on river flow and soil loss was assessed by combining the pathways with the 2015 LULC. A physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) model in the ArcGIS 10.4.1 interface was used to realize the purpose. Results of the study revealed that LULCC that occurred between 1986 and 2015 resulted in increased average sediment yield by 20.9 t ha−1 yr−1. Climate change under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 combined with 2015 LULC increased annual average soil losses by 31.3, 50.9 and 83.5 t ha−1 yr−1 compared with the 2015 LULC under historical climate data. It was also found that 13.4%, 47.1% and 87.0% of the total area may experience high soil loss under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Annual soil losses of five top-priority sub catchments range from 62.8 to 57.7 per hectare. Nash Stuncliffe Simulation efficiency (NSE) and R2 values during model calibration and validation indicated good agreement between observed and simulated values both for flow and sediment yield.

Download Full-text

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11247083 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (24) ◽

pp. 7083 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Kristian Näschen ◽

Bernd Diekkrüger ◽

Mariele Evers ◽

Britta Höllermann ◽

Stefanie Steinbach ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Balance ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

The Impact

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

Download Full-text

Assessing the land use/land cover and climate change impact on water balance on Tordzie watershed

Remote Sensing Applications Society and Environment ◽

10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100381 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 ◽

pp. 100381

Author(s):

Mexoese Nyatuame ◽

Leonard Kofitse Amekudzi ◽

Sampson Kwaku Agodzo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Balance ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Change Impact

Download Full-text

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061801 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1801 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Wakjira Takala Dibaba ◽

Tamene Adugna Demissie ◽

Konrad Miegel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Water Yield ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Ensemble Mean ◽

The Future

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change affect the availability of water resources by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. The evaluation helps to identify the level of water resources exposure to the changes that could help to plan for potential adaptive capacity. In this research, Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov in IDRISI software was used to predict the future LULC scenarios and the ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used for the future climate scenarios. Distribution mapping was used to bias correct the RCMs outputs, with respect to the observed precipitation and temperature. Then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the watershed hydrological responses of the catchment under separate, and combined, LULC and climate change. The result shows the ensemble mean of the four RCMs reported precipitation decline and increase in future temperature under both representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios showing that RCP8.5 projection is warmer than RCP4.5. The changes in LULC brings an increase in surface runoff and water yield and a decline in groundwater, while the projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater and water yield. The combined study of LULC and climate change shows that the effect of the combined scenario is similar to that of climate change only scenario. The overall decline of annual flow is due to the decline in the seasonal flows under combined scenarios. This could bring the reduced availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue of subsistence agriculture. The possibility of surface water and groundwater reduction could also affect the availability of water resources in the catchment and further aggravate water stress in the downstream. The highly rising demands of water, owing to socio-economic progress, population growth and high demand for irrigation water downstream, in addition to the variability temperature and evaporation demands, amplify prolonged water scarcity. Consequently, strong land-use planning and climate-resilient water management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks.

Download Full-text

Land Use Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on Surface Air Temperature in Myanmar and Thailand

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su131910942 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 10942

Author(s):

Khun La Yaung ◽

Amnat Chidthaisong ◽

Atsamon Limsakul ◽

Pariwate Varnakovida ◽

Can Trong Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Forest Conversion ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Forest Land ◽

Lulc Changes ◽

Average Maximum

Land use land cover (LULC) change is one of the main drivers contributing to global climate change. It alters surface hydrology and energy balance between the land surface and atmosphere. However, its impacts on surface air temperature have not been well understood in a dynamic region of LULC changes like Southeast Asia (SEA). This study quantitatively examined the contribution of LULC changes to temperature trends in Myanmar and Thailand as the typical parts of SEA during 1990–2019 using the “observation minus reanalysis” (OMR) method. Overall, the average maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures obtained from OMR trends indicate significant warming trends of 0.17 °C/10a, 0.20 °C/10a, and 0.42 °C/10a, respectively. The rates of minimum temperature increase were larger than maximum and mean temperatures. The decreases of forest land and cropland, and the expansions of settlements land fractions were strongly correlated with the observed warming trends. It was found that the effects of forest land converted to settlement land on warming were higher than forest conversion to cropland. A comprehensive discussion on this study could provide scientific information for the future development of more sustainable land use planning to mitigate and adapt to climate change at the local and national levels.

Download Full-text

MULTITEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF FOREST COVER CHANGE USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS OF KANHA TIGER RESERVE, CENTRAL INDIA

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-5-211-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol XLII-5 ◽

pp. 211-219 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

R. M. Devi ◽

B. Sinha ◽

J. Bisaria ◽

S. Saran

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Forest Cover ◽

Central India ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Tiger Reserve ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Forest ecosystems play a key role in global ecological balance and provide a variety of tangible and intangible ecosystem services that support the livelihoods of rural poor. In addition to the anthropogenic pressure on the forest resources, climate change is also impacting vegetation productivity, biomass and phenological patterns of the forest. There are many studies reported all over the world which use change in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) to assess the impact of climate change on the forest. Land use change (LC) refers to any anthropogenic or natural changes in the terrestrial ecosystem at a variety of spatial or temporal scale. Changes in LULC induced by any causes (natural/anthropogenic) play a major role in global as well as regional scale pattern which in turn affects weather and climate. Remote sensing (RS) data along with Geographic Information System (GIS) help in inventorying, mapping and monitoring of earth resources for effective and sustainable landscape management of forest areas. Accurate information about the current and past LULC including natural forest cover along with accurate means of monitoring the changes are very necessary to design future adaptation strategies and formulation of policies in tune of climate change. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze the changes of LULC of Kanha Tiger Reserve (KTR) due to climate change. The rationale for selecting KTR is to have a largely intact forest area without any interference so that any change in LULC could be attributed to the impact of climate change. The change analysis depicted changes in land use land cover (LULC) pattern by using multi-temporal satellite data over a period of time. Further, these detected changes in different LULC class influence the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. As the study site is a Sal dominated landscape; the findings could be applied in other Sal dominated landscape of central India in making future policies, adaptation strategies and silvicultural practices for reducing the vulnerability of forest-dependent communities.

Download Full-text