scholarly journals Changes in precipitation rates over the last 70 years in Eastern Paraná State, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e15
Author(s):  
Bruno Henrique Toná Juliani ◽  
Cristhiane Michiko Passos Okawa ◽  
Miriam Rita Moro Mine
Keyword(s):  
Change Point ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Complete Series ◽  
Joseph Effect ◽  
Over Time

Temporal hydrometeorological series may present variations over time. The awareness of these characteristics is important to improve the monitoring of changes that these series may suffer along time. In this regard, the present paper aims to identify the existence of precipitation trends for the east portion of Paraná state, in Brazil, and also investigate the changes in the observed rates over the last 70 years. The statistical tests of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt, and also the Theil-Sen estimator, are applied for series of precipitation from 13 pluviometric stations of eastern Paraná state, Brazil, with 70 years of data records. By the results it was identified long-term linear positive trend for 11 of the precipitation series and also detected medium-term patterns in precipitation over 10 stations, characterizing the Joseph effect. These series have presented a behavior with higher rates in the most recent years in comparison from the first years of the historical data, sectioning the complete series into two shorter stationary periods, and presenting an abrupt change point.

Can the Asia Pacific market accomodate Australia's LNG projects?

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 677
Author(s):  
John Harris
Keyword(s):  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Supply Contracts ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Competitive Position ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Project Costs ◽  
Over Time

The portfolio of proposed Australian LNG projects continues to grow. What is the demand outlook for Asia Pacific LNG—and can it absorb the potential volume from these projects? Who are the key importers and what are the demand uncertainties within the Asia Pacific region? Can Australian LNG penetrate markets further afield? What has driven the growth in Australian LNG projects and how many more might emerge? Where are the projects that will compete with Australian LNG? Is Australian LNG competitive relative to other supplies? Are project costs likely to increase further? How is the LNG supply-demand balance likely to develop in the Asia Pacific during the next decade? Is there a looming surplus of LNG and, if so, what would this mean for Australia? Does the outlook presage a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market? Will contract expiries from established LNG exporters increase supply availability in the Asia Pacific? What could this mean for oil indexation and long term LNG contracts? Could alternative pricing mechanisms evolve and will we see an increase in short and medium term supply contracts? This paper examines the outlook for the Asia Pacific LNG market—and the growing role Australian LNG is playing in meeting demand growth. It also reviews Australia’s competitive position and considers the way in which the structure of Asia Pacific LNG contracts may evolve over time.

877 The Transobturator Male Sling: Does It Stand the Test of Time?

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Sohawon ◽  
I G Rizvi ◽  
P Ravindra ◽  
M Pipe ◽  
T King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Patient Satisfaction ◽  
Salvage Surgery ◽  
Treatment Success ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Male Sling ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Predicting Success ◽  
Male Patients ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Introduction The commonest cause of stress urinary incontinence in men is radical prostatectomy. We aimed to determine the efficacy, complication rate and need for salvage surgery in the medium-long term for male sling insertion. Method Retrospective review of all patients undergoing male sling insertion at one centre between 2009-2018. Data was collected on complications, patient satisfaction and need for further surgery. Preoperative severity was categorized as mild, moderate, or severe. We assessed ICIQ score, 24h-pad usage, patient satisfaction and identified risk factors for treatment success/failure. Results 91 men had slings inserted (median age- 67.3). Three months success rates in mild, moderate and severe SUI groups were 96%, 86% and 80% respectively which dropped to 65%, 62% and 47% in the medium term. The rate of AUS implantation was 6%, 15% and 33% respectively. Complications included pain, infection, retention and OAB. Patient satisfaction at 5-years was 57%. Only factor predicting success or failure was pre-operative ICIQ-UI(SF) score. Conclusions Male sling success rates deteriorate over time. 15% will have an AUS. The risk of complications is low and transient. A pre-operative ICIQ-UI(SF) score of > 18 is a predictor of failure. Sling insertion remains a reasonable treatment option for male patients suffering with SUI.

scholarly journals Short-term, medium-term and long-term effects of early parenting interventions in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e004067
Author(s):  
Joshua Jeong ◽  
Helen O Pitchik ◽  
Günther Fink
Keyword(s):  
Parenting Interventions ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Development Outcomes ◽  
Over Time

IntroductionParenting interventions during early childhood are known to improve various child development outcomes immediately following programme implementation. However, less is known about whether these initial benefits are sustained over time.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review of parenting interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that were delivered during the first 3 years of life and had completed a follow-up evaluation of the intervention cohort at least 1 year after the primary postintervention endpoint. We summarized intervention effects over time by child-level and parent-level outcomes as well as by timing of follow-up rounds in the short-term (1–3 years after programme completion), medium-term (4–9 years), and long-term (10+ years). We also conducted exploratory meta-analyses to compare effects on children’s cognitive and behavioral development by these subgroups of follow-up rounds.ResultsWe identified 24 articles reporting on seven randomised controlled trials of parenting interventions delivered during early childhood that had at least one follow-up study in seven LMICs. The majority of follow-up studies were in the short-term. Three trials conducted a medium-term follow-up evaluation, and only two trials conducted a long-term follow-up evaluation. Although trials consistently supported wide-ranging benefits on early child development outcomes immediately after programme completion, results revealed a general fading of effects on children’s outcomes over time. Short-term effects were mixed, and medium-term and long-term effects were largely inconclusive. The exploratory meta-analysis on cognitive development found that pooled effects were significant at postintervention and in the short-term (albeit smaller in magnitude), but the effects were not significant in the medium-term and long-term. For behavioural development, the effects were consistently null over time.ConclusionsThere have been few longer-term follow-up studies of early parenting interventions in LMICs. Greater investments in longitudinal intervention cohorts are needed in order to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the effectiveness of parenting interventions over the life course and to improve the design of future interventions so they can have greater potential for achieving and sustaining programme benefits over time.

scholarly journals Trend Analysis of Lakes and Sinkholes in Konya Closed Basin, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahdettin DEMIR
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Lake Levels ◽  
Closed Basin ◽  
Thiessen Polygons ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Determining changes in the water level of lakes is essential in terms of flood control, water resource management, economic development, water-supply planning sustainability, and the sustainability of the ecosystem. Trend analysis is one of the most commonly used tools for detecting changes in the hydrological time series such as lake levels, precipitation and temperature. Trend analyses of meteorological variables and groundwater levels (baseflow components) are crucial toward the assessment of long-term changes in lake levels. This study aims to investigate the trend of long-term change in lakes (Lake Tuz and Lake Beyşehir) and sinkholes (Timraş and Kızören) in the Konya Closed Basin in Turkey. Changes in these lakes and sinkholes were examined along with changes in precipitation and groundwater trends representing the climate in the region. With the assistance of Thiessen polygons, precipitation stations, which affect the lakes and sinkholes, were determined. Several statistical tests exist that help determine the significance of hydrological trends over time. These tests are divided into two categories: parametric and nonparametric. In this study, the non parametric Innovative Sen trend test, the Modified Mann–Kendall trend test, and the parametric Linear Trend test were used. As a result of the trend analysis, it was observed that the water levels of Kızören and Timraş sinkholes decreased over time, and the water levels of Tuz Gölü and Beyşehir lakes increased over time. These results are supported by the trends of precipitation data and groundwater level data of the stations determined by the Thiessen polygons and sub-basin boundaries.

scholarly journals Competing motivations in the diachronic nominalization of English gerunds

Diachronica ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 487-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Fonteyn ◽  
Charlotte Maekelberghe
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Potential Influence ◽  
Weak Preference ◽  
System Pressure ◽  
Linguistic Innovation ◽  
Late Modern ◽  
Over Time

Abstract The present study is an in-depth, corpus-based analysis of the rise and institutionalization of the indefinite nominal gerund in Late Modern English, considering the observed developments in light of their interactions with functionally related constructions. Based on historical data taken from the Corpus of Late Modern English Texts (version 3.1), we argue that the rise of indefinite nominal gerunds constitutes an instance of diachronic nominalization, in which the nominal gerund over time gradually comes to exploit a fuller range of paradigmatic properties associated with the nominal class. At the same time, this study investigates the potential influence of isomorphism on the observed developments. While the results do support the frequently investigated claim that language systems have a (weak) preference for a one-form-one-meaning organization in later stages of their development, the initial emergence of indefinite nominal gerunds can more accurately be explained by allowing system pressure as an enabling force of linguistic innovation. The picture presented in this study serves as evidence that the long-term development of linguistic constructions can be the result of competing – even maximally opposite – forces.

scholarly journals Belgium

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (92) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Single Event ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
The Past ◽  
Trade Offs

This Selected Issues paper analyzes Belgium’s fiscal stance using a structural stochastic model. This note uses a theoretical model that explicitly accounts for the trade-offs between the short-term cost of fiscal tightening and the long-term gains associated with higher fiscal buffers. This paper shows that once the current crisis is over, rebuilding fiscal buffers is essential to helping Belgium confront the next shock from a stronger fiscal position. Overall, this illustrates a major motivation for a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy. When a government reduces debt, it increases its capacity to react to shocks later. This entails a short-term cost that is, in the case of Belgium, worth the effort as this capacity to smooth future shocks increases future welfare. In addition, a large capacity to react with fiscal policy reduces the risk of long-lasting effects of a large crisis. Historical data show that in the past, the Belgium government’s reaction to the cycle was limited to a single event. By contrast, if Belgium could firmly anchor public debt on a downward path, future governments would be able to offset downturns while keeping debt sustainability concerns under control.

scholarly journals Climatological Study of Ozone over Saudi Arabia

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1275
Author(s):  
Saleha Al-Kallas ◽  
Motirh Al-Mutairi ◽  
Heshmat Abdel Basset ◽  
Abdallah Abdeldym ◽  
Mostafa Morsy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
The North ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

In this work, analysis of the variability of total column ozone (TCO) over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has been conducted during the 1979–2020 period based on the ECMWF-ERA5 dataset. It is found that the highest values of TCO appear in the spring and winter months especially over north KSA, while the lowest values of TCO occur in the autumn months. The highest values of the coefficient of variation (COV) for TCO occur in winter and spring as they gradually decrease southward, while the lowest COV values appear in summer and autumn. The Mann–Kendall test indicates that the positive trend values are dominant for the annual and seasonal TCO values over KSA, and they gradually increase southward. The study of long-term variability of annual TCO at KSA stations shows negative trend values are the dominant behavior during the 1979–2004 period, while positive trend values are the dominant behavior during the 2004–2020 period. The Mann–Whitney test assessed the abrupt change of the annual TCO time series at 28 stations in KSA and confirmed that there is an abrupt change towards increasing values around 2000, 2005, and 2014. The climatological monthly mean of the ozone mass mixing ratio (OMR) is studied at three stations representing the north, middle, and south of KSA. The highest values of OMR are found in the layer between 20 and 4 hPa with the maximum in summer and early autumn, while the lowest values are found below 100 hPa.

Long Term Consistency of Handwriting Grip Kinetics in Adults

2014 ◽  
Vol 136 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bassma Ghali ◽  
Khondaker A. Mamun ◽  
Tom Chau
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Grip Force ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Relative Magnitude ◽  
Clinical Applications ◽  
Misclassification Rate ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
Over Time

While there is growing interest in clinical applications of handwriting grip kinetics, the consistency of these forces over time is not well-understood at present. In this study, we investigated the short- and long-term intra-participant consistency and inter-participant differences in grip kinetics associated with adult signature writing. Grip data were collected from 20 adult participants using a digitizing tablet and an instrumented pen. The first phase of data collection occurred over 10 separate days within a three week period. To ascertain long-term consistency, a second phase of data collection followed, one day per month over several months. In both phases, data were collected three times a day. After pre-processing and feature extraction, nonparametric statistical tests were used to compare the within-participant grip force variation between the two phases. Participant classification based on grip force features was used to determine the relative magnitude of inter-participant versus intra-participant differences. The misclassification rate for the longitudinal data were used as an indication of long term kinetic consistency. Intra-participant analysis revealed significant changes in grip kinetic features between the two phases for many participants. However, the misclassification rate, on average, remained stable, despite different demarcations of training, and testing data. This finding suggests that while signature writing grip forces may evolve over time, inter-participant kinetic differences consistently exceeds within-participant force changes in the long-term. These results bear implications on the collection, modeling and interpretation of grip kinetics in clinical applications.

scholarly journals Ozone Variability over Egypt

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayman Badawy ◽  
Heshmat Abdel Basset ◽  
Mohamed Eid
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Horizontal Distribution ◽  
The Other ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The North ◽  
Seasonal Time Series ◽  
Ozone Trend

The variability of ozone over Egypt has been studied in this work. Higher values of coefficient of variation (COV) at eight stations occur at winter while lowest values occur at summer. The COV is function of latitude in annual, winter and spring where it decreases gradually from the north to south of Egypt. The trend analysis of ozone over the eight stations indicates negative trends over northern stations for both annual and seasonal time series with the greatest one at winter. The horizontal distribution of ozone trend values is negative over all Egypt in winter while it positive over middle and south Egypt in the other seasons. The long-term variability of the behavior of the annual ozone shows positive trend values in ozone are the dominant features during the period 1979- 1989 at the most stations. Negative trend values in ozone are the dominant features during the period 1990- 2014 at all stations. The Mann–Kendall test confirms that there is an abrupt change towards decreasing of ozone occurs in 1981, 1984, 2012, 1999, 2000, 1998 and 2010, while a change towards increasing of ozone appears in 2006, 2014, 1993 and 1989.

Aspects of the Evolution of the Romanian Tourists’ Preferences Concerning the Domestic Tourist Destinations

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
Aniela Bălăcescu ◽  
Radu Șerban Zaharia
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
On Line ◽  
The One ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract Tourist services represent a category of services in which the inseparability of production and consumption, the inability to be storable, the immateriality, and last but not least non-durability, induces in tourism management a number of peculiarities and difficulties. Under these circumstances the development of medium-term strategies involves long-term studies regarding on the one hand the developments and characteristics of the demand, and on the other hand the tourist potential analysis at regional and local level. Although in the past 20 years there has been tremendous growth of on-line booking made by household users, the tour operators agencies as well as those with sales activity continue to offer the specific services for a large number of tourists, that number, in the case of domestic tourism, increased by 1.6 times in case of the tour operators and by 4.44 times in case of the agencies with sales activity. At the same time, there have been changes in the preferences of tourists regarding their holiday destinations in Romania. Started on these considerations, paper based on a logistic model, examines the evolution of the probabilities and scores corresponding to the way the Romanian tourists spend their holidays on the types of tourism agencies, actions and tourist areas in Romania.

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