scholarly journals Ground data confirm warming and drying are at a critical level for forest survival in western equatorial Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma R Bush ◽  
Kathryn Jeffery ◽  
Nils Bunnefeld ◽  
Caroline Tutin ◽  
Ruth Musgrave ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Evergreen Forests ◽  
Total Annual Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Africa

Background.The humid tropical forests of Central Africa influence weather worldwide and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However they are also an ecological anomaly, with evergreen forests dominating the western equatorial region despite less than 2000mm total annual rainfall. Meteorological data for Central Africa are notoriously sparse and incomplete and there are substantial issues with satellite-derived data because of inability to ground-truth estimates and persistent cloudiness. Long-term climate observations are urgently needed to verify regional climate and vegetation models, shed light on the mechanisms that drive climatic variability and assess the viability of evergreen forests in equatorial Africa under future climate scenarios. Methods. We have the rare opportunity to analyse a 34-year dataset of rainfall and temperature (and shorter periods of absolute humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and aerosol optical depth) from Lopé National Park, a long-term ecological research site in western equatorial Africa. We used linear mixed models and spectral analyses to assess seasonal and inter-annual variation, long-term trends and oceanic influences on local weather patterns. Results. Lopé’s weather is characterised by a light-deficient, cool, long dry season. Long-term climatic means have changed significantly over the last three decades, with warming occurring at a rate of 0.23°C per decade (minimum daily temperature) and drying at a rate of 50mm per decade (total annual rainfall). Inter-annual variability is highly influenced by sea surface temperatures of the major oceans. In El Niño years Lopé experiences both higher temperatures and less rainfall with increased contrast between wet and dry seasons. Lopé rainfall observations lend support for the role of the Atlantic cold tongue in “dry” models of climate change in the region. Conclusions. Dry season cloud in western equatorial Africa plays a key role in reducing evaporative demand during seasonal drought and maintaining evergreen tropical forests despite relatively low annual rainfall. In the context of a rapidly warming and drying climate, urgent research is needed into the sensitivity of clouds to ocean temperatures and the viability of humid forests in this dry region should the clouds disappear.

scholarly journals Ground data confirm warming and drying are at a critical level for forest survival in western equatorial Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma R Bush ◽  
Kathryn Jeffery ◽  
Nils Bunnefeld ◽  
Caroline Tutin ◽  
Ruth Musgrave ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Evergreen Forests ◽  
Total Annual Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Africa

Background.The humid tropical forests of Central Africa influence weather worldwide and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However they are also an ecological anomaly, with evergreen forests dominating the western equatorial region despite less than 2000mm total annual rainfall. Meteorological data for Central Africa are notoriously sparse and incomplete and there are substantial issues with satellite-derived data because of inability to ground-truth estimates and persistent cloudiness. Long-term climate observations are urgently needed to verify regional climate and vegetation models, shed light on the mechanisms that drive climatic variability and assess the viability of evergreen forests in equatorial Africa under future climate scenarios. Methods. We have the rare opportunity to analyse a 34-year dataset of rainfall and temperature (and shorter periods of absolute humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and aerosol optical depth) from Lopé National Park, a long-term ecological research site in western equatorial Africa. We used linear mixed models and spectral analyses to assess seasonal and inter-annual variation, long-term trends and oceanic influences on local weather patterns. Results. Lopé’s weather is characterised by a light-deficient, cool, long dry season. Long-term climatic means have changed significantly over the last three decades, with warming occurring at a rate of 0.23°C per decade (minimum daily temperature) and drying at a rate of 50mm per decade (total annual rainfall). Inter-annual variability is highly influenced by sea surface temperatures of the major oceans. In El Niño years Lopé experiences both higher temperatures and less rainfall with increased contrast between wet and dry seasons. Lopé rainfall observations lend support for the role of the Atlantic cold tongue in “dry” models of climate change in the region. Conclusions. Dry season cloud in western equatorial Africa plays a key role in reducing evaporative demand during seasonal drought and maintaining evergreen tropical forests despite relatively low annual rainfall. In the context of a rapidly warming and drying climate, urgent research is needed into the sensitivity of clouds to ocean temperatures and the viability of humid forests in this dry region should the clouds disappear.

scholarly journals Rare ground data confirm significant warming and drying in western equatorial Africa

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e8732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma R. Bush ◽  
Kathryn Jeffery ◽  
Nils Bunnefeld ◽  
Caroline Tutin ◽  
Ruth Musgrave ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Evergreen Forests ◽  
Total Annual Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Africa

Background The humid tropical forests of Central Africa influence weather worldwide and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However, they are also an ecological anomaly, with evergreen forests dominating the western equatorial region despite less than 2,000 mm total annual rainfall. Meteorological data for Central Africa are notoriously sparse and incomplete and there are substantial issues with satellite-derived data because of persistent cloudiness and inability to ground-truth estimates. Long-term climate observations are urgently needed to verify regional climate and vegetation models, shed light on the mechanisms that drive climatic variability and assess the viability of evergreen forests under future climate scenarios. Methods We have the rare opportunity to analyse a 34 year dataset of rainfall and temperature (and shorter periods of absolute humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and aerosol optical depth) from Lopé National Park, a long-term ecological research site in Gabon, western equatorial Africa. We used (generalized) linear mixed models and spectral analyses to assess seasonal and inter-annual variation, long-term trends and oceanic influences on local weather patterns. Results Lopé’s weather is characterised by a cool, light-deficient, long dry season. Long-term climatic means have changed significantly over the last 34 years, with warming occurring at a rate of +0.25 °C per decade (minimum daily temperature) and drying at a rate of −75 mm per decade (total annual rainfall). Inter-annual climatic variability at Lopé is highly influenced by global weather patterns. Sea surface temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have strong coherence with Lopé temperature and rainfall on multi-annual scales. Conclusions The Lopé long-term weather record has not previously been made public and is of high value in such a data poor region. Our results support regional analyses of climatic seasonality, long-term warming and the influences of the oceans on temperature and rainfall variability. However, warming has occurred more rapidly than the regional products suggest and while there remains much uncertainty in the wider region, rainfall has declined over the last three decades at Lopé. The association between rainfall and the Atlantic cold tongue at Lopé lends some support for the ‘dry’ models of climate change for the region. In the context of a rapidly warming and drying climate, urgent research is needed into the sensitivity of dry season clouds to ocean temperatures and the viability of humid evergreen forests in this dry region should the clouds disappear.

Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Xu ◽  
Xu Lian ◽  
Ingrid Slette ◽  
Hui Yang ◽  
Yuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Demand ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Dry Seasons ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Factor Governing

Abstract The timing and length of the dry season is a key factor governing ecosystem productivity and the carbon cycle of the tropics. Mounting evidence has suggested a lengthening of the dry season with ongoing climate change. However, this conclusion is largely based on changes in precipitation (P) compared to its long-term average (P ̅) and lacks consideration of the simultaneous changes in ecosystem water demand (measured by potential evapotranspiration, Ep, or actual evapotranspiration, E). Using several long-term (1979-2018) observational datasets, we compared changes in tropical dry season length (DSL) and timing (dry season arrival, DSA, and dry season end, DSE) among three common metrics used to define the dry season: P < P ̅, P < Ep, and P < E. We found that all three definitions show that dry seasons have lengthened in much of the tropics since 1979. Among the three definitions, P < E estimates the largest fraction (49.0%) of tropical land area likely experiencing longer dry seasons, followed by P < Ep (41.4%) and P < P ̅ (34.4%). The largest differences in multi-year mean DSL (> 120 days) among the three definitions occurred in the most arid and the most humid regions of the tropics. All definitions and datasets consistently showed longer dry seasons in southern Amazon (due to delayed DSE) and central Africa (due to both earlier DSA and delayed DSE). However, definitions that account for changing water demand estimated longer DSL extension over those two regions. These results indicate that warming-enhanced evapotranspiration exacerbates dry season lengthening and ecosystem water deficit. Thus, it is necessity to account for the evolving water demand of tropical ecosystems when characterizing changes in seasonal dry periods and ecosystem water deficits in an increasingly warmer and drier climate.

scholarly journals Tropospheric ozone over Equatorial Africa: regional aspects from the MOZAIC data

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Sauvage ◽  
V. Thouret ◽  
J.-P. Cammas ◽  
F. Gheusi ◽  
G. Athier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
Gulf Of Guinea ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Regional Flow ◽  
Equatorial Africa

Abstract. We analyze ozone observations recorded over Equatorial Africa between April 1997 and March 2003 by the MOZAIC programme, providing the first ozone climatology deriving from continental in-situ data over this region. Three-dimensional streamlines strongly suggests connections between the characteristics of the ozone monthly mean vertical profiles, the most persistent circulation patterns in the troposphere over Equatorial Africa (on a monthly basis) such as the Harmattan, the African Easterly Jet, the Trades and the regions of ozone precursors emissions by biomass burning. During the biomass burning season in each hemisphere, the lower troposphere exhibits layers of enhanced ozone (i.e. 70 ppbv over the coast of Gulf of Guinea in December-February and 85 ppbv over Congo in June-August). The characteristics of the ozone monthly mean vertical profiles are clearly connected to the regional flow regime determined by seasonal dynamic forcing. The mean ozone profile over the coast of Gulf of Guinea in the burning season is characterized by systematically high ozone below 650hPa ; these are due to the transport by the Harmattan and the AEJ of the pollutants originating from upwind fires. The confinement of high ozone to the lower troposphere is due to the high stability of the Harmattan and the blocking Saharan anticyclone which prevents efficient vertical mixing. In contrast, ozone enhancements observed over Central Africa during the local dry season (June-August) are not only found in the lower troposphere but throughout the troposphere. Moreover, this study highlights a connection between the regions of the coast of Gulf of Guinea and regions of Congo to the south that appears on a semi annual basis. Vertical profiles in wet-season regions exhibit ozone enhancements in the lower troposphere due to biomass burning products transport from fires situated in the opposite dry-season hemisphere.

scholarly journals Ten-Year Estimation of Net Primary Productivity in a Mangrove Forest under a Tropical Monsoon Climate in Eastern Thailand: Significance of the Temperature Environment in the Dry Season

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 987
Author(s):  
Sasitorn Poungparn ◽  
Akira Komiyama ◽  
Suthathip Umnouysin ◽  
Chadtip Rodtassana ◽  
Tanuwong Sangtiean ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Mangrove Forests ◽  
Tree Biomass ◽  
Monsoon Climate ◽  
Temperature Environment ◽  
Tropical Monsoon

Mangrove forests play crucial roles in the coastal ecosystems of the tropics. Few studies have addressed long-term changes in the net primary productivity (NPP) of mangroves in relation to the tropical monsoon climate. We conducted a tree census from 2008 to 2018 in a permanent plot at a secondary mangrove forest under the tropical monsoon climate of Eastern Thailand. During this period, the mortality of fast-growing species and the increasing number of newly recruited trees revealed a temporal change in the plant composition and distribution. Total tree biomass linearly increased from 283.64 to 381.72 t·ha−1 during the study period. The NPP was calculated by using the summation method, which included fine root production. The NPP ranged from 21.19 to 29.04 t·ha−1·yr−1. The fluctuation in NPP and its components were analyzed in relation to climatic factors by the linear regression model. The NPP did not relate with the annual climatic factors, such as the mean temperature and annual rainfall. However, both increments in the basal area and living tree biomass, which is a major component of NPP, were negatively related with the maximum and mean monthly temperatures in the dry season. The annual mortality rate related positively with annual rainfall and the maximum monthly temperature in the dry season. Linear regression analyses showed that some major components of NPP were chiefly affected by the temperature environment in the dry season. These results indicated that the weather in the dry season was largely restricting the mangrove NPP due to effects on the saline water dynamics of the soils under the tropical monsoon climate, which were revealed by our recent study. It implies that the hot-dry season may lead to high mortality, long-term reduction in the increment of living-trees biomass, and thus lowered the ability to maintain high NPP of mangrove forests over the long-term.

scholarly journals Discrepancy between Gauges and Satellite Estimates of Rainfall in Equatorial Africa

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 666-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey R. McCollum ◽  
Arnold Gruber ◽  
Mamoudou B. Ba
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Project ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Equatorial Africa

Abstract The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite estimates have approximately twice the magnitude of estimates produced from the rain gauges used by the GPCP in central equatorial Africa. Different possible explanations are identified and investigated. The first is that there may not be enough GPCP rain gauges in the area to provide accurate estimates of rainfall for comparisons with satellite estimates. A comparison of the time-averaged GPCP rain gauge estimate with a long-term (over 40 yr) climatology indicates that the GPCP gauge estimates are similar to long-term rainfall averages, suggesting that the GPCP rain gauge analysis is not underestimating rainfall. Two other possible explanations related to the physical properties of the air masses in this region are studied. Evidence from the literature and from estimates of the effective radii of cloud droplets suggests that there may be an abundance of aerosols in central Africa, resulting in an abundance of cloud condensation nuclei, small drops, and inefficient rain processes. The second explanation is that convective clouds forming under dry conditions generally have cloud bases considerably higher than those of clouds forming in moist environments. This leads to an increase in the evaporation rate of the falling rain, resulting in less precipitation reaching the ground. Analysis of the moisture distributions from both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction numerical weather prediction model reanalysis data and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Water Vapor Project global moisture dataset reveals that the lower troposphere in this region of Africa is relatively dry, which suggests that cloud bases are high.

Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: a reflection on underlying processes

1997 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.J. Mason ◽  
M.R. Jury
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Quasi-periodicities in annual rainfall totals over southern Africa have been identified; in particular, an approximately 18-year cycle may be related to interdecadal variability in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and central Indian Oceans. A 10-year cycle along the south coast is related to variability in standing wave 3. Atmospheric anomalies associated with wet and dry years can be related to changes in the frequency, intensity and persistence of important rainfall-producing weather systems and highlight the significance of the strength of the continental heat low and the preferred locations and amplitudes of the westerly troughs. El Niño Southern Oscillation events and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans can influence both the tropical and the temperate atmospheric circulation and moisture fluxes over the subcontinent and thus are significant influences on rainfall variability. Evidence for long-term climatic change is not as definitive as in the Sahel, although there are indications of desiccation in some areas since the late-1970s. Increases in temperatures are of approximately the same magnitude as the hemispheric trends and may be attributable to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

scholarly journals Changes in the Intensity and Variability of Precipitation in the Central Region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio de la Casa ◽  
Gustavo Ovando ◽  
Olga Nasello
Keyword(s):  
Central Region ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Total Annual Rainfall ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Long Term Trend

This study analyzes the temporal variation of different rainfall features in the central region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012, and evaluates the dynamics of temporal trends by using the Mann–Kendall–Sneyers (MKS) and Tomé–Miranda (TM) procedures. Under different criteria and levels of significance, rainfall time series show homogeneous behavior in more than 80% of cases. Only 18 of the 42 annual cases analyzed reached a significant long-term trend (p < 0.10). Total annual rainfall (AR) showed a significant increase only in Laboulaye Aero (LB) and Villa Dolores Aero (VD), but this does not currently persist. A decrease in the annual frequency of rainy days (DPF) is more widespread in the region. Thus, the increase in mean annual rainfall intensity (INT) seems to be particularly associated with the decrease in annual frequency of events (DPF) in the central region of Argentina. However, the increase in INT currently persists only at the Córdoba Observatorio (BO), as INT stopped growing for LB, Río Cuarto Aero (RC), and VD in the mid-1990s. The variation coefficients of total annual rainfall (ARCV) and DPF (DPFCV) have increased in the region, but with the former restricted locally to the Pilar Observatorio (PI), RC, and VM, and the latter to BO and RC. Long-term changes of the pluvial regime in the central region of Argentina appear to be not only local and restricted to some properties of rainfall during the period, but also reveal a particular dynamic where the long-term trends of the evaluated properties have now changed sign or maintain a certain constancy at present.

DROUGHT OCCURRENCE UNDER LITHUANIAN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laima TAPARAUSKIENĖ ◽  
Veronika LUKŠEVIČIŪTĖ
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Record ◽  
Calculation Step ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
June July

This study provides the analysis of drought conditions of vegetation period in 1982-2014 year in two Lithuanian regions: Kaunas and Telšiai. To identify drought conditions the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied. SPI was calculated using the long-term precipitation record of 1982–2014 with in-situ meteorological data. Calculation step of SPI was taken 1 month considering only vegetation period (May, June, July, August, September). The purpose of investigation was to evaluate the humidity/aridity of vegetation period and find out the probability of droughts occurrence under Lithuanian climatic conditions. It was found out that according SPI results droughts occurred in 14.5 % of all months in Kaunas region and in 15.8 % in Telšiai region. Wet periods in Kaunas region occurred in 15.8 %, and in Telšiai region occurrence of wet periods was – 18.8 % from all evaluated months. According SPI evaluation near normal were 69.7 % of total months during period of investigation in Kaunas and respectively – 65.5 % in Telšiai. The probability for extremely dry period under Lithuania climatic conditions are pretty low – 3.0 % in middle Lithuania and 2.4 % in western part of Lithuania.

SATELLITE DATA FOR INVESTIGATION OF RECENT STATE AND PROCESSES IN THE SIVASH BAY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Sergey Stanichny ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
High Salinity ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Azov Sea ◽  
Seasonal Wind ◽  
Ice Regime ◽  
Very High

Sivash bay is the shallow-water lagoon of the Azov Sea. Restricted water exchange and high evaporation form Sivash as the basin with very high salinity. This factor leads to different from the Azov Sea thermal and ice regimes of Sivash. Maine aim of the study presented to investigate recent state and changes of the characteristics and processes in the basin using satellite data. Landsat scanners TM, ETM+, OLI, TIRS together with MODIS and AVHRR were used. Additionally NOMADS NOAA and MERRA meteorological data were analyzed. The next topics are discussed in the work: 1. Changes of the sea surface temperature, ice regime and relation with salinity. 2. Coastal line transformation – long term and seasonal, wind impact. 3. Manifestation of the Azov waters intrusions through the Arabat spit, preferable wind conditions.

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