scholarly journals Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Maize Production in Mali

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-52
Author(s):  
Abdoulaye Maïga ◽  
Moussa Bathily ◽  
Amadou Bamba ◽  
Issoufou Soumaïla Mouleye ◽  
Mamadi Sissako Nimaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Adequate Food ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of climate change on maize production in Mali during the period 1990-2020. The unit root test (augmented Dickey-Fuller) was used to check the order of integration between the variables in the study. The ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) approach to cointegration limits is applied to assess the association between the study variables with evidence of a long-term relationship. The unit root test estimates confirm that all variables are stationary at the combination of I(0) and I(1). The results show that precipitation and temperature in June and July have a negative and highly significant effect on maize production in both the short and long term analyses. Among other determinants, the area of land devoted to maize crops and GDP per capita have a positive effect on production. The estimated coefficient on the error correction term is also highly also highly significant As Mali's population grows, in the coming decades the country will face food security challenges. Possible initiatives are needed to configure the Malian government to address the negative effects of climate change on agriculture and ensure adequate food for the growing population.

scholarly journals Impact of Public Capital Expenditure on Inflation Rate in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 30-39
Author(s):  
Jideofor Nnennaya Joy ◽  
Michah Chukwuemeka Okafor ◽  
Eke Onyekachi Abaa
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Public Capital ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Mixed Order ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of public capital expenditure on inflation rate in Nigeria. The data for the study were sourced from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletin. The data was subjected to unit root test using Augmented Dickey fuller (ADF) approach to ascertain the time series properties. Descriptive statistics was used to assess the socioeconomic characteristics of the variables. Due to the mixed order of integration witnessed in the unit root, ARDL- Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach was used for cointegration and regression analysis. The result found that Public capital expenditure is negatively and statistically significant (tcal = -2.903) in influencing Inflation Rate in Nigeria. This outcome is highly directional in the sense that prudent and productive spending will always subdue inflation in any economy; therefore, this study recommend that government should increase its investment in production sectors and encourage skilful and willing citizens to participate, since this would reduce the expenses being incurred on business as a result low currency value and raise the profitability of firms.

scholarly journals MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangarirai Roy Shoko ◽  
Abenet Belete ◽  
Petronella Chaminuka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Distributed Lag

Climate affects crop production decisions and outcomes in agriculture. From very short-term decisions about which crops to grow, when to plant or harvest a field, to longer-term decisions about farm investments, climate can positively or negatively affect agricultural systems. Although the general effects of climate change on agriculture are broadly understood, there are limited studies that model the relationship between specific crops and climate variables. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the sensitivity of maize yield to climate variables, fertilizer use and other non-climate variables. This paper uses annual time-series data of 47 observations spanning from 1970 to 2016. The results reveal that rainfall and temperature are important maize yield drivers in South Africa. However, if excessive, they will produce negative effects. The findings of this analysis are relevant for designing long-term interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on maize production.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship Between Real Export, Real Import, Real Exchange Rate, Labor Force and Real Gross Domestic Product in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Emilda Hashim ◽  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Asmawi Hashim ◽  
Norasibah Abdul Jalil ◽  
Shahrun Nizam Abdul Aziz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

This study examined short run and long run relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables. Specifically, it studied the relationship between real export, real import, labor force participation and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real GDP in Malaysia from 1988 to 2017. These variables were tested in various tests, namely, unit root test, granger causality test, vector autoregressive (VAR), Johansen Juselius test and Error Correction Term (ECT). The result revealed that all variables were non-stationary at the level form and stationary at first difference in ADF unit root test. The findings also exhibited the existence of bilateral relationships between real export and real GDP, real import and real GDP, as well as labor and real GDP. Nonetheless, there were no relationship found between REER and real GDP. On the other hand, in VAR, the lag optimum was lag 10 because it indicated the smallest value of AIC. Moreover, for Johansen Juselius cointegration test, it showed two cointegrated vector at both, 5% and 1%, level in trace test. In addition, Max-Eigen value test indicated two cointegrated vector at 0.05 and one cointegrated vector at 0.01. As for the Wald test, there were long run cointegration relationship between real GDP and its determinants, namely real export, real import, labor and REER. Apparently, Malaysia, as a small open economy, has relied heavily on foreign trade. Consequently, our domestic economic performance is susceptible to the changes in international markets and exchange rate. Therefore, suitable international policy implementation is vital to ensure Malaysian economy will be able to adjust to current global changes.

Mean reverting leverage policy in China: theory and evidence from industrial and sectorial level unit root analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajid ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Chinese Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leverage Ratio ◽  
Stationary Behavior

Purpose This study aims to apply unit root test to investigate the behavior of Chinese firms toward their leverage policy. The study is based on two influential and competing theories of capital structure. Design/methodology/approach This study applies unit root test to investigate the behavior of Chinese firms toward their leverage policy. The study is based on two influential and competing theories of capital structure. Trade off theory advocates that firms have a target level of leverage ratio and that firms try to achieve that optimal leverage ratio, whereas pecking order theory argues that firms have no target level of leverage and that they follow a specific pattern of leverage. For this purpose, this study applies a Fisher type unit root test to 12,808 firm level observations. The data are unbalanced and cover a period from 1991 to 2014. Findings The results reveal the presence of a stationary behavior across short-term, long-term and total leverage policies. For short-term leverage policy, 21 per cent firms show stationary behavior, while for long-term, 20 per cent show a targeting behavior; for the total leverage policy 17 per cent of firms are found to follow a tradeoff model. To make the findings more interesting sample was further classified into profit and loss making firms. The study finds that loss making firms do not follow a target level of leverage in China. Furthermore, unit root is applied to all firms before and after crises-2008. It is revealed that stationary behavior is more prevalent before crises-2008. Originality/value This study is highly important from the point of view that it quantifies firms into distinct categories of following specific model of capital structure. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the findings of this study add to current research knowledge about Chinese firms with respect to adjustment behavior toward a target capital structure.

Kaolin and seaweed‐based extracts can be used as middle and long‐term strategy to mitigate negative effects of climate change in physiological performance of hazelnut tree

2019 ◽  
Vol 206 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Cabo ◽  
Maria Cristina Morais ◽  
Alfredo Aires ◽  
Rosa Carvalho ◽  
Núria Pascual‐Seva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Physiological Performance

scholarly journals Nexus between Agriculture and Unemployment in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Oluwafemi S. Enilolobo ◽  
Saidi A. Mustapha ◽  
Onyeka P. Ikechukwu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Bounds Test

This study examined the impact of agriculture sector growth on unemployment level as well as the direction of causality between agricultural sector output and unemployment level in Nigeria. Secondary annual time series data between 1981 and 2016 were used for the study. Data on unemployment rate, agriculture sector output, public expenditure and industrial output were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical Bulletin while data on FDI and population growth were obtained from the World Bank World Development Indicators. The data were analyzed using ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) unit root test, Autoregressive distributed lag Bounds test of cointegration, Autoregressive distributed lag error correction model estimation and Granger causality. The results of ADF unit root test revealed variables were at different orders of integration, the ARDL bounds test revealed cointegration between variables, and the Autoregressive distributed lag error correction model estimation revealed that change in agriculture output in the current period is negative and significant for current unemployment level in Nigeria, while the change in one period lagged agriculture output was positive and significant for current unemployment level in Nigeria. Also the error correction term indicated that about 74.10 percent of the disequilibrium in the system in the previous year would be corrected in the current year. Granger causality test results revealed bi-directional causality between agriculture output and unemployment level in Nigeria. The study recommends that the Nigeria government should using strategic policies targeted at boosting agriculture output such as increasing access to land for peasant rural farmers, investments in agricultural research, and so on, seek to boost agriculture output in order to reduce unemployment in Nigeria. Further, the Nigeria government should ensure that agriculture sector development policies are consistent with the objective of reducing unemployment in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The evaluation of output convergence in several Central and Eastern European countries

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-51
Author(s):  
Simionescu M.
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Small Data ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Eastern European Countries

The main objective of this study is to check the convergence in output for six countries from Central-Eastern Europe that are also members of the European Union. A slow convergence was obtained only for Greece during 2003–2012, for the rest of the countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania) the divergence being observed. The regression coefficients were estimated using bootstrap simulations in order to solve the problem of a small data set. However, the graphical representations suggested a convergence for Bulgaria and Romania, the assumption proved also by the application of the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. There is no evidence of the convergence of each country towards Greece, this country having a specific evolution of its GDP with higher values than the rest of the countries.

scholarly journals Capital Flight and Economic Development: Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Samson O Akinwale ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Adult Literacy ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship

This study examined the nexus between capital flight and economic development in Nigeria. The null hypothesis was that capital flight has no significant relationship with economic development in Nigeria. The study used the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method on data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank, for the period 1986–2018, to examine the relationship between capital flight and economic development in Nigeria. The study examined the unit root problem and cointegrating properties of the data. The unit root problem was tested for by using the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests. Findings from ARDL showed an inverse relationship exists between capital flight, real exchange rate, and economic development. This implies that the variables contributed significantly to reduce economic development within the study period. However, a positive relationship existed between economic development and adult literacy rate in Nigeria. By implication, improvements made in providing quality and affordable education tend to have a positive impact on economic development in Nigeria. The study concluded that economic development is strongly influenced by capital flight, real exchange, and adult literacy rates in Nigeria. The study, therefore, recommends that government policies to curb capital flight should be introduced and monitored so as to lead to economic development in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Analisis Kausalitas Inflasi dan Jumlah Uang Beredar di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2000.1–2014.4

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 236
Author(s):  
Afrizal Afrizal
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Level 1 ◽  
Integration Degree

There is often a debate about causality between money supply and inflation. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality, whether the money supply affects inflation or vice versa. Analytical tool used is unit root test, integration degree test, causality test with granger causality technique and cointegration approach. The result of unit root test data is not stationary, after test of stationary data continued at level 1 (first difference). The result of granger causality test with lag 12 indicates that the money supply has an effect on inflation rate in Indonesia, and vice versa means there is a mutual relationship. And based on Johanson's cointegration test shows that mutual cointegration means having long-term equilibrium relationship as desired by the theory.

scholarly journals Determinants of Agricultural Output in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
pp. 65-73
Author(s):  
OMEKWE, Sunday Omiekuma Pau ◽  
BOSCO, ItoroEkpenyong ◽  
OBAYORI, Joseph Bidemi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Government Funding ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Rural Farmers ◽  
Integration Test

The study examined the determinants of agricultural output in Nigeria from 1985-2016. It employs the econometric techniques of co-integration test and ECM approach to analyze the data obtained from the CBN statistical bulletin. The Augumented Dickey Fuller unit root test results showed that all the variables were stationary at first difference. The Johansen co-integration test results showed that co-integrating equations exist which fit the model for the ECM. Meanwhile, the ECM results showed that; government funding in agriculture is positively and significantly related to agricultural output, agriculture credit has positive and significant impact on agricultural output. Also, climate change has a positive and significant effect on agricultural output. The findings from the study showed that agricultural funding; agricultural credits as well as climate change are key determinants of agricultural output in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study recommends amongst others that there should be increase infrastructural funding in the yearly budget in order to provide infrastructural facilities to the rural areas where bulk of farm products are produced. Also, credit to the agricultural sector via the rural farmers should be encouraged.

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