scholarly journals Nexus between Agriculture and Unemployment in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Oluwafemi S. Enilolobo ◽  
Saidi A. Mustapha ◽  
Onyeka P. Ikechukwu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Bounds Test

This study examined the impact of agriculture sector growth on unemployment level as well as the direction of causality between agricultural sector output and unemployment level in Nigeria. Secondary annual time series data between 1981 and 2016 were used for the study. Data on unemployment rate, agriculture sector output, public expenditure and industrial output were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical Bulletin while data on FDI and population growth were obtained from the World Bank World Development Indicators. The data were analyzed using ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) unit root test, Autoregressive distributed lag Bounds test of cointegration, Autoregressive distributed lag error correction model estimation and Granger causality. The results of ADF unit root test revealed variables were at different orders of integration, the ARDL bounds test revealed cointegration between variables, and the Autoregressive distributed lag error correction model estimation revealed that change in agriculture output in the current period is negative and significant for current unemployment level in Nigeria, while the change in one period lagged agriculture output was positive and significant for current unemployment level in Nigeria. Also the error correction term indicated that about 74.10 percent of the disequilibrium in the system in the previous year would be corrected in the current year. Granger causality test results revealed bi-directional causality between agriculture output and unemployment level in Nigeria. The study recommends that the Nigeria government should using strategic policies targeted at boosting agriculture output such as increasing access to land for peasant rural farmers, investments in agricultural research, and so on, seek to boost agriculture output in order to reduce unemployment in Nigeria. Further, the Nigeria government should ensure that agriculture sector development policies are consistent with the objective of reducing unemployment in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nepal: A Co-integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36
Author(s):  
Gautam Maharjan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal. The 43 years' annual time series data from 1974/75 to 2016/17 of GDP, tax revenue and nontax revenue have been used to test the causal relationship of the variables. A unit root test, Engle-Granger’s co-integration and Error Correction Model have been applied for the data analysis. The variables have been found stationary after first differencing I(1) when Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is employed. From Engel-Granger test, it has been found that the variables are co-integrated. The short-term coefficients are not significant, however error correction term (ECT) is significant and contains a negative sign in the error correction model (ECM). It validates the ECM model. The ECT has shown that the annual speed of adjustment from disequilibrium to equilibrium is 34.3 percent. So far as the relationship is concerned, there is a long run relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal controlling the non-tax revenue. The impact of tax revenue on economic growth could be a good impetus for the policy maker and planner to increase the collection of revenue for the country.

scholarly journals Revisiting the effects of relevant factors on Pakistan's agricultural products export

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 527-541
Author(s):  
Zaid Ashiq Khan ◽  
Mansoor Ahmed Koondhar ◽  
Noshaba Aziz ◽  
Uzair Ali ◽  
Liu Tianjun
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Pakistan is an agriculture-based country, so the agricultural sector is known as the backbone of the national economy. Considering the national economy and the agricultural industry, it is necessary to focus on earnings through agricultural products export to improve the livelihood of local farmers. Therefore, the current study aimed to analyse the short-term and long-term factors affecting agricultural products export. The annual time series of 1976–2016 were collected from World Bank indicators, the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the Statistical Bureau of Pakistan. An autoregressive distributed lag, along with a vector error correction model, was employed. A cointegration test showed long-term associations between the selected variables. While the autoregressive distributed lag model confirmed the short-term correlation between area sown and crop production towards agricultural products export, there is no long-term relationship between the selected variables. In addition, the bidirectional correlation between employment in agriculture and agricultural products export was confirmed by the vector error correction model. Therefore, it is essential to increase agricultural production with the available natural resources to increase foreign earnings.

scholarly journals Impact of Public Capital Expenditure on Inflation Rate in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 30-39
Author(s):  
Jideofor Nnennaya Joy ◽  
Michah Chukwuemeka Okafor ◽  
Eke Onyekachi Abaa
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Public Capital ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Mixed Order ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of public capital expenditure on inflation rate in Nigeria. The data for the study were sourced from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletin. The data was subjected to unit root test using Augmented Dickey fuller (ADF) approach to ascertain the time series properties. Descriptive statistics was used to assess the socioeconomic characteristics of the variables. Due to the mixed order of integration witnessed in the unit root, ARDL- Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach was used for cointegration and regression analysis. The result found that Public capital expenditure is negatively and statistically significant (tcal = -2.903) in influencing Inflation Rate in Nigeria. This outcome is highly directional in the sense that prudent and productive spending will always subdue inflation in any economy; therefore, this study recommend that government should increase its investment in production sectors and encourage skilful and willing citizens to participate, since this would reduce the expenses being incurred on business as a result low currency value and raise the profitability of firms.

scholarly journals Banking Competition and Economic Growth: 2006-2015 Case of Rwanda

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-522
Author(s):  
Faustin Maniraguha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Banking Competition ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Economic Growth And Development ◽  
Short Run

It has been argued that a competitive and efficient financial sector is a prerequisite for economic growth and development. The objective of this study therefore was to determine the influence of bank competition on economic growth in Rwanda for the period 2006 - 2015.The study used Error Correction Model after conducting Unit Root Test(ADF) and Cointegration Test(Johansen) so that to check the degree of adjustment in the short run. The results revealed that Credit to GDP is highly significant and this implied that there is a need to set the policy influencing credit distribution in order to influence economic growth. In addition disequilibrium found in the short run is corrected quarterly at 70.32%.

scholarly journals Η σχέση μεταξύ εταιρικών ομολόγων και συναλλαγματικών ισοτιμιών σε ώριμες και αναδυόμενες αγορές

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Σπυριδούλα-Κωνσταντίνα Βαρθολομάτου
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Cross

Λαμβάνοντας υπόψη ότι η ταχύτητα μετάδοσης ενός σοκ είτε οικονομική είτε νομισματική έχει αλλάξει δραματικά, στην παρούσα διατριβή δίνεται έμφαση στην εξέταση της σχέσης μεταξύ εταιρικών ομολόγων και συναλλαγματικών ισοτιμιών στις ΗΠΑ και την Ελλάδα. Εξετάζοντας το ζήτημα των εταιρικών ομολόγων κάτω από ένα διαφορετικό θεωρητικό πλαίσιο, αρχικά, ο κύριος στόχος της διατριβής αφορά την υιοθέτηση μιας ορθολογικής πολιτικής από τις επιχειρήσεις και τις κυβερνήσεις για την επίτευξη σταθερής ανάπτυξης σε ένα περιβάλλον χρηματοοικονομικής αστάθειας και ασυμμετρίας για πρώτη φορά στη διεθνή βιβλιογραφία. Στο εμπειρικό κομμάτι της έρευνας, έμφαση δίνεται στη διερεύνηση βραχυχρόνιας και μακροχρόνιας σχέσης μεταξύ των σειρών διαμέσου μιας νέας οικονομετρικής προσέγγισης του dynamic quantile autoregressive-distributed lag error correction model (QARDL-ECM). Σύμφωνα με τα αποτελέσματα της έρευνας, διαπιστώθηκε ότι στην Ελλάδα, οι μεταβολές των εταιρικών ομολόγων οφείλονται κυρίως στις μεταβολές της συναλλαγματικής ισοτιμίας. Οι ποσοτικές εκτιμήσεις έδειξαν ότι η ισχύς της μακροχρόνιας σχέσης αυξάνεται καθώς μειώνεται ο κίνδυνος αθέτησης της υπό εξέταση χώρας. Επιπλέον, ασυμμετρίες εντοπίστηκαν και στις βραχυχρόνιες σχέσεις όλης της υπό εξέταση περιόδου. Στις ΗΠΑ διαπιστώθηκε τόσο μακροχρόνια όσο και βραχυπρόθεσμη σχέση μεταξύ των υπό εξέταση μεταβλητών, με τις μεταβολές της συναλλαγματικής ισοτιμίας να οφείλονται κυρίως στις μεταβολές των εταιρικών ομολόγων. Οι ποσοτικές εκτιμήσεις παρουσίασαν ένα μη συμμετρικό μοτίβο της σχέσης μεταξύ των μεταβλητών, το οποίο αποτελεί ένδειξη πιθανών προβλημάτων στην χρηματοδότηση των επιχειρήσεων. Στην συνέχεια, στην παρούσα διατριβή επιδιώκεται μέσα από την διερεύνηση της σχέσης των αποδόσεων εταιρικών ομολόγων και των τιμών της συναλλαγματικής ισοτιμίας να αποκαλύψουμε την οικονομική αξία της μνημονιακής πολιτικής σε δύο περιφερειακές χώρες της Ευρωζώνης και συγκεκριμένα την Ελλάδα και την Ιρλανδία, για την ανάπτυξη μιας υγιούς οικονομικής πολιτικής που θα συμβάλει στη βελτίωση και την τόνωση της επιχειρηματικής δραστηριότητας. Για την επίτευξη αυτού του στόχου, διερευνάται η ποσοτική εξάρτηση των μεταβλητών μας, χρησιμοποιώντας μια νέα οικονομετρική μεθοδολογία, the cross-quantilogram. Στην Ιρλανδία, τα εμπειρικά αποτελέσματα αποδεικνύουν υψηλότερο ποσοστό απορρόφησης των διαρθρωτικών μεταρρυθμίσεων που συμβάλλει στην πιο σταθερή ενίσχυση των επιχειρήσεων. Αντίθετα, στην Ελλάδα, αν και οι διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις ήταν πιο ισχυρές σε σχέση με αυτές που παρουσιάστηκαν στην Ιρλανδία, παρουσιάζεται μια παρόμοια εικόνα στις διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις, ωστόσο μετά από μια μεγαλύτερη χρονική περίοδο από την έξοδο από το μνημόνιο και μόνο όταν ενισχύεται η ευρωπαϊκή οικονομία σε σχέση με αυτή των Η.Π.Α. Η εφαρμογή του προτεινόμενου μεθοδολογικού πλαισίου στην μελέτη της σχέσης μεταξύ εταιρικών ομολόγων και συναλλαγματικών ισοτιμιών σε ώριμες και αναδυόμενες αγορές αποτελεί ένα σημαντικό εργαλείο στην χάραξη νέων προτύπων οικονομικής πολιτικής σε συνθήκες χρηματοοικονομικής αστάθειας και ασυμμετρίας. Παράλληλα, αποκαλύπτεται η οικονομική αξία πολιτικών όπως είναι η εφαρμογή μνημονίων σε δύο περιφερειακές χώρες της Ευρωζώνης.

scholarly journals Estimating long-run effects and the exponent of cross-sectional dependence: An update to xtdcce2

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 687-707
Author(s):  
Jan Ditzen
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cross Sectional Dependence ◽  
The Cross

In this article, I describe several updates to xtdcce2 (Ditzen, 2018, Stata Journal 18: 585–617). First, I explain how to estimate long-run effects in models with cross-sectional dependence. I review three methods to estimate the long-run effects and discuss their implementation into Stata using xtdcce2. Two of the estimation methods build on Chudik et al. (2016, Advances in Econometrics: Vol. 36—Essays in Honor of Aman Ullah, 85–135): the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag and the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag estimator. As a third alternative, I review an error-correction model in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. Second, I explain how to estimate the exponent of cross-sectional dependence using xtcse2 following Bailey, Kapetanios, and Pesaran (2016, Journal of Applied Econometrics 31: 929–960; 2019, Sankhyā 81: 46–102).

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Islamic Banking (IBs) Contribution to Indonesia’s Inclusive Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (SI) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Yusuf Ibrahim ◽  
Indra Indra
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

The research is aim to attest and assess empirically the contribution of Islamic banking (IBs) on the inclusive growth in Indonesia. By taking a trial-stage method i.e. descriptive analysis to elaborate a statistical data, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to assess empirically the contribution in a long-term, and error correction model (ECM) to assess the contribution in a short-term empirically. The findings are, total deposits and total financing only contribute positively significant into GDP and gini ratio in a long-term, that similiar with the previous study. Then, a total financing contribute negatively to all indicators of inclusive growth in a long-term, but, its only significance on GDP and gini ratio. Means, it was contribute significantly to all indicators in a short-term.

Revisiting environmental degradation and economic growth nexus using autoregressive distributed lag approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (8) ◽  
pp. 1765-1796
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Neha Saini
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

PurposeThe paper attempts to revisit the nexus between economic growth, carbon emissions, trade openness, financial effectiveness and FDI for a sample of seven developed and developing countries using curvilinear relationship as per environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis over long term.Design/methodology/approachThe authors determine the unit root properties of variables (using Clemente–Montañés–Reyes unit root test with double mean shifts and AO model and augmented Dickey–Fuller test) for structural breaks at different levels. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) methodology was used to estimate long- and short-run parameters among the selected variables in sample countries from 1965 to 2016. Vector error correction (VEC) and Granger causality approach was used to determine the direction of causality.FindingsThe authors confirmed long-run relationship among the variables and highlighted high economic growth and energy consumption as the main causes of environmental degradation. While in India financial development and FDI inflows depict a negative association with environmental sustainability, however, such relationship was positive in the United Kingdom (UK), which is often considered as a benchmark for policymakers. The authors’ findings were in agreement with existing research insights in reporting FDI and financial development as the major contributors towards (unsustainable) sustainable environment through emissions in case of (developing country like India) developed country like UK. For other sample countries (China, Brazil, Japan, South Africa, United States of America (USA)), the authors’ model failed to capture financial development and FDI as significant contributors of carbon emissions. However, unidirectional causality running from energy to carbon emission was observed leading to the policy adoption of incentivizing alternative energy-based resources to increase energy efficiency across the energy value chain.Research limitations/implicationsManufacturing with renewable energy, in collaboration with private and foreign players, under an institutional framework is desirable. Policy instruments including mandatory administrative controls, economic incentives and voluntary schemes that promote energy efficiency building blocks need to be established. A sound legal system for implementing technological innovation, financial subsidy incentives, interest-free loan programmes and development of financial sector supports creation and thriving of energy efficient units, often a perquisite for accelerated development.Originality/valueBy undertaking a comparative analysis, the authors address the research gap through revisiting EKC hypothesis with different set of trade policy and financial development framework. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, earlier studies were limited to one-country data analysis and did not consider the comparative data set of developed and developing countries with reference to financial development and FDI components.

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