scholarly journals Intra Industry Trade, Fiscal Policy and Terms of Trade Of Pakistan: A Long Run Analysis Using ARDL Technique

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Farrukh Bashir ◽  
Fareeha Andleeb ◽  
Rahat Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run

This study investigates long run relationship between Intra Industry Trade, fiscal policy and Terms of Trade of Pakistan. Considering the intention, time series data having time span from 1972 to 2014 is chosen. Data is collected through various sources like World Development Indicators, Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy (2010) and Economic Survey of Pakistan (2014 – 15). After observing mixed stationary results of the variables [I(0), I(1)] using Augmented Dickey Fuller test, autoregressive and distributed lag model technique is applied for the analysis. For estimating elasticities of terms of trade with respect to the variables, log – log form of the model is utilized. The study reveals Intra Industry Trade, Real Gross Capital Formation and Real Government Expenditure as significant causes of improving Terms of Trade of Pakistan. On the other side, Terms of Trade of Pakistan is deteriorated due to real Gross Domestic Product and Real Foreign Direct Investment.

Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Jebran ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman Rao ◽  
Arshad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This paper analyzes the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of Pakistan considering annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study opted autoregressive distributed lag model for purpose of analyzing short- and long-run relationship. The results reveal significant negative long-run and short-run effects of terms of trade on economic growth. The analyses also indicate significant positive long-run and short-run effects of labour on economic growth. Further, capital stock is influencing positively the economic growth in long run only. We suggest that economic policies may be implemented to deteriorate terms of trade which will further enhance the economic growth of Pakistan. JEL: F13, F43

scholarly journals Effect of Public Spending on Economic Growth in Kenya

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Gideon Mukui ◽  
Japheth Awiti ◽  
Joseph Onjala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aimed at examining the relationship between public spending and economic growth and how the composition of government expenditure affects economic growth in Kenya using time series data from 1980 to 2014. To achieve the objectives, modified Granger causality and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) were used. The results revealed both short term and long term causality from economic growth to government expenditure but only short run causality from government expenditure to economic growth. Based on the economic classification, the long run ARDL regression results showed development expenditure promotes economic growth while government purchases have no significant effect on GDP. Other control variables such as inflation and unemployment had negative effect on economic growth. In terms of functional classification, the regression results showed that expenditure on education and infrastructure are important drivers of economic growth. The positive effect of health expenditure was not significant.  Further, the regression results indicated that domestic savings and trade openness had significant positive effect on economic growth. Based on the empirical findings this study therefore recommends resources to be directed towards financing public infrastructure investment to improve economic performance. The study also recommends increasing resource allocation in the education sector to improve efficiency and support skills and human capital development that are important in promoting economic growth through increases in labor productivity. The study also recommends policymakers to enhance domestic resource mobilization and pursue favorable trade policies aimed at fostering robust economic growth.

scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Employment Generation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Ismat Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Employment Generation

This study is projected at investigating the influence of Sectoral Investment on Employment Generation. For this purpose, time series data is collected from Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2017. Augmented Dickey fuller test reveals that few variables considered in the study are stationary at level and few at first difference. So, econometric results are estimated using autoregressive and distributed lag model for long run elasticities. Long run co-integrating relationship is established at 2.5 percent level using ARDL bound testing approach. ARDL long run results concludes that Agricultural Investment, Industrial Investment, Services Sector Investment and Trade openness are increasing employment while inflation and tax revenue are seemed to be negatively related with employment of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic variables on the credit provided by Saudi Banks: تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على التمويل المصرفي في المملكة العربية السعودية (دراسة قياسية شملت البيانات من 1970م – 2012م)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyas Jafar Abdel Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables of the Saudi economy as in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Expenditure (G), Economic Openness (OPE), Inflation Rate (CPI) and the Bank Deposits (DS) on the credit provided by Saudi banks (BF), on annual time series data between 1970-2012. To investigate this relationship, the study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) to measure the long-run and short-run impact, At that the E-views 8.1 has been used for analyze the cointegration,the diagnostic, the reliability - stability tests, and the forecasting behavior of the model. The study found that (BF) is affected positively by (GDP) growth rate in the long-run. Also the (BF) has been affected negatively in the short and long-run by inflation rates (CPI) and government expenditure (G). Consequently the Contractionary Fiscal Policy in recent period will not lead to reduce the financial performance of Saudi banks, and the growth of (GDP) in the future will have positive impact on the financing capacity of the Saudi banking sector.

scholarly journals Is Fiscal Policy Effective in Generating Higher Real Output? A Case of Pakistan

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Hafiz Saqib Mehmood Najmi ◽  
Farrukh Bashir ◽  
Saman Maqsood
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
Motivating Factor

Keeping in view the objective that is to observe the usefulness of fiscal policy on real GDP of Pakistan, the study collects time series data from 1976 to 2012 through reliable sources of statistical bureaus of Pakistan. Using Johansen Cointegration test, the long run results demonstrate investment and government expenditure as raising factor for real GDP of Pakistan while GDP Deflator and government revenue as de-motivating factor for real GDP of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Determinants of Inclusive Growth in Pakistan: An ARDL Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol IV (II) ◽  
pp. 105-118
Author(s):  
Vivek Anand ◽  
Muhammad Qasim Nizamani ◽  
Farheen Qasim Nizamani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

There is increasing concern that growth in most part of the world in not distributed equitably. This is particularly the situation in Pakistan, where the economic growth is uneven and biased toward the affluent. This study aims to present empirical analysis to characterize the association between inclusive growth and its macro-economic determinants in Pakistan. In this context, the study employs annual time-series data for 23 years (1994-2017). In order to obtain long-run and short-term results, both auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) was being implemented. The findings of the study reveal that infrastructure development and government consumption have a positive and significant impact on the long-term inclusive growth of Pakistan. In contrast, a negative relationship is being observed between inflation, health expenditure and inclusive growth. Based on the findings, the study suggests that policymakers should develop appropriate policies to promote healthy government expenditure, infrastructure development, control inflation, and bring transparency in the health sector for fostering inclusive growth in Pakistan.

Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enock Mwakalila
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Private Sector Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically analyzes the impact of government expenditure and domestic borrowing on credit to the private sector in Tanzania by increasing lending rates. Quarterly time series data are collected from 2004 to 2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short- and long-run relationships, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The result shows that government expenditure and domestic borrowing crowd out credit to the private sector by increasing the lending rate in the long run. This calls for the Tanzanian government to reduce some of its deficit spending and domestic borrowing, and instead look for another way to increase the tax revenue using loans from external sources to fund its budget deficit. Also, the study recommends that the government should put more effort on improving private sector development by making the country an easy place to do business, which in turn will increase the tax base through corporate tax and income tax from business employees.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS THE IMPACT OF SUBSIDY ON RICE PRODUCTION IN MUDA IRRIGATION AREA

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-83
Author(s):  
Nor Asmat Ismail ◽  
Zulkifli Abdul Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Irrigation Area ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Subsidy Scheme ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Muda Irrigation Area is one of the main rice granaries in Malaysia and is the largest contributor to the country's rice production. It receives the highest subsidies from the government through various types of the rice subsidy scheme. Various efforts and approaches have been implemented through government expenditure (rice subsidy scheme) to ensure that Muda area continues to produce rice for the country. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of rice subsidy scheme given by the government on the changes in production and income of farmers in the Muda area. Among the subsidy schemes are minimum guaranteed prices, rice subsidy scheme and fertilizer subsidy scheme. Independent variables such as rice plantation areas and the number of labors (farmers) have been included in the model. This study focuses on the effect of subsidy scheme on paddy production by applying cointegration test and correction errors according to Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to validate the existence and direction of the relationship between all variables by using time series data 37 years (1980-2016). The results showed that there was a long-run relationship (cointegration) between government expenditure (rice subsidy scheme) on rice production in the Muda Area. The study suggests that government intervention, need to be continued but needs to be transformed so that the rice industry become more competitive and able to become producers and exporters of rice to foreign countries.

Does mobile money business influence non-performing loans in the traditional banking sector? Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-188
Author(s):  
Rexford Kweku Asiama ◽  
Anthony Amoah ◽  
Godson Ahiabor
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Long Run

The study analyzes the influence of mobile money business on the growth of non-performing loans in Ghana. Quarterly time-series data from 2000-2018 are used. This secondary data was obtained from the the New International Database of Financial Fragility and the Bank of Ghana online database. In the absence of data on quarterly volumes of mobile money transactions or the estimated number of firms, we present groundbreaking macro-level evidence of how mobile money business operations contribute to the problem of nonperforming loans in Ghana. We estimated an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and find that mobile money business operations positively influence non-performing loans in Ghana. This influence persists in the long-run and raises some policy implications for the banking sector in the country. The paper recommends the need for regulators to develop a policy that creates a well-connected and transparent financial system.

scholarly journals Ageing Population and Economic Growth: Evidence from Malaysia

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Shairilizwan Taasim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Employment Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Development Expenditure ◽  
The Impact

This main purpose of this article investigated the impact of ageing population on economic growth in Malaysia. Annual time series data for 27-year duration (1990-2017) was used and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) was applied. This study will focuses on addressing role of ageing population in Malaysia by context that failed to receive much attention especially in employment sector. By using Romer [1] endogenous theory, the cointegration result revealed that exists a long run relationship exists between ageing population in Malaysia government development expenditure in education and economic growth. Our analysis recommends further investment in government expenditure in education sector to achieving higher human capital capability as a towards high income country and ageing phenomena.

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