A magyar állampénzügyi rendszer rezilienciája a COVID–19 járvány kapcsán

Összefoglaló. A COVID–19 járvány a magyar gazdaság teljesítményeit és pénzügyi egyensúlyát is gyengítette, ám a korábbról stabil államháztartási alapok következtében a negatív hatások csak átmenetinek vélelmezhetők. Magyarország 2010–2019 között egy sikeres állampénzügyi reformot hajtott végre, amely jó alapot ad a válság elleni védekezéshez. Ugyanakkor a járványválság még erősebben ráirányítja a figyelmet a magyar nemzetgazdaság versenyképességének erősebb javítására, az infláció fékezésére, a költségvetési egyensúly megfelelő keretek között tartására, és a kis- és középvállalati szektor mérethatékonyságának növelésére. A tanulmány bemutatja a válság alatti fiskális és jegybanki intézkedések vázát, és egyúttal utal a válság utáni időszak kihívásaira, amelyek a nemzetközi térből, s különösen a jegybanki politika megváltozásából fakadnak. Summary. The COVID-19 epidemic hit the position of the otherwise strong Hungarian economy. We could see an economic downturn and financial imbalance developed in the last one and half years. As in the recovery (post-crisis) period of the 2010 decade, the crisis is being addressed with the active involvement of the state and the central bank. However, in the course of managing the crisis, it arises that on the new growth trajectory to be built after the recovery period, the competitiveness aspects, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprise category, which plays a major role in Hungary, should be more efficient than in the previous decade. It is necessary to improve the size efficiency, liquidity and capital efficiency of the SME sector by means of fiscal regulation, and the allocation of state resources should be more strongly linked to the requirements of export capacity and innovative business conduct. The decade after the 2007–2008 crisis – the previous recovery period – was characterized by the weak enforcement of fiscal policies in regulating and improving competitiveness, especially in Hungary, where change is essential. After 2013, Hungarian monetary policy also caught up with the international practice of quantitative easing, achieving significant results in improving both the financial balance and economic growth. However, the previous quantitative easing of the central bank, as well as the increase of budget expenditures on epidemiological expenditures, investments, normative budget annual subsidies from the European Union and subsidies from the European Reconstruction Fund, and even investment loans from our Eastern economic partners, generates an overheated economy, inflationary pressures, and external and balance of payments deficits. Added to this is the wage dynamics of the population, and the permanent and even increasing disbursement of family benefits during the crisis. All in all, in the 2020s we will face a new financial-debt crisis, unemployment and labor shortage problems, the competitiveness problems of the small business sector, culminating in the reorganization of the world economy, new competitiveness aspects, it will be a rather complex task. Thus, the turn of competitiveness that has essentially failed in the context of an abundance of resources and consolidated macroeconomic conditions (2010-2019) must be implemented “uphill”, it is only the time, will and opportunity to take its first steps. But the main lesson of the crises caused by the epidemics (also) is that the remaining economic entities have become stronger. And perhaps there is a chance to avoid falling into the trap of medium development through a new central bank policy that moderates inflation and truly enforces modernization considerations, as well as improving financial positions and improving economic positions (competitiveness).

Opinia krytyczna do przeważającego poglądu reprezentowanego w orzecznictwie sądowym w zakresie ustalania dochodu z wydzierżawionego gospodarstwa rolnego jako kryterium do przyznania świadczeń rodzinnych Opinion critical of the prevailing view the jurisprudence of the courts as regards the determination of the income from a rented agricultural holding as a criterion for granting family benefits

W opracowaniu podejmowana jest polemika w zakresie ustalania dochodu z wydzierżawionego gospodarstwa rolnego dla celów związanych z przyznaniem prawa do zasiłku rodzinnego. Problem ten ma istotne znaczenie z tego względu, że obecny sposób interpretowania przez sądy przepisów w tym zakresie prowadzi do nierównego traktowania osób ubiegających się o zasiłek rodzinny. W związku z tym w artykule przedstawiono właściwy, zdaniem autora, sposób interpretacji przedmiotowych przepisów. Pozwoliłby on objąć zakresem pomocy większą liczbę osób, które obecnie są wykluczane z możliwości jej uzyskania. W opracowaniu zwrócono również uwagę na zasadną, zdaniem autora, zmianę stanowiska w jednym z wyroków.

Family Benefits and Services

This chapter examines welfare-state support for families with children in the context of low fertility, increasing rates of childlessness, and a general move away from the breadwinner model of the family. Welfare-state spending on families is explored, and, although most countries, with few exceptions, spend more on older people, spending on children varies between countries, as does spending to encourage mothers into employment. Adopting the model family method to compare the package of policies to support families with children at different earning levels, the chapter shows varying results of generosity, depending on whether we compare low or average earners. The chapter also provides evidence that family policies matter for outcomes—with stronger spending on services increasing both fertility and maternal employment, spending on both services and benefits increasing child well-being, and generosity of transfers lowering child poverty rates.

THE RISK OF POVERTY OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES

The article aims at analysing available statistical data on the poverty risk of households of people with disabilities. The analyses indicate that incomes in households of people with disabilities is largely dependent on social transfers and its dynamics is much lower than in households of people without disabilities. The income level largely protects against extreme poverty, but the exposure to re7lative poverty has been increasing steadily over the last decade. Comparing the structure of expenditure in households of people with and without disabilities, a higher level of expenditure on health-related needs is observed. This is a rationale for a higher threshold of access to family benefits for these households.

Child Happiness Associated with Paternal Profiles in Parenting Behaviors and Work-Family Balance

In Korea, expectations for paternal roles are changing from strict fathers to intimate fathers as a result of the rise in dual-income families. Maintaining a work-family balance to allow for more involvement in parenting can be difficult for Korean fathers because they tend to be work-oriented. They also typically lack a role model for close father-child relationships due to Korea’s tradition of authoritarian fatherhood. In this study, we identify paternal profiles and what types of fathers are positively associated with child happiness. For this purpose, we investigate (a) the number and characteristics of paternal profiles in parenting behaviors (authoritative, authoritarian, and permissive parenting) and work-family balance (work-family benefits and conflicts); (b) predictors of the profiles, and (c) how the profiles are associated with child happiness. Our sample included 1,159 fathers with children in the 3rd grade from the 10th wave of the Panel Study on Korean Children. The mean age of the fathers was 42.15 years ( SD = 3.88), and the mean length of their marital relationship was about 12.90 years ( M = 154.83 months, SD = 36.98). Using Mplus, we applied latent profile analysis and found three profiles: (1) authoritative fathers with work-family benefits (22.1%); (2) authoritative-permissive fathers with work-family balance (52.9%); and (3) inconsistent fathers with work-family conflicts (25.0%). We also examined predictors of the profiles and child happiness. Health, age, and marital relationship satisfaction were the significant predictors of the profiles. Children of authoritative fathers with work-family benefits showed significantly higher happiness than children of the other paternal types. Our findings provide valuable implications for family practices and government policies regarding the importance of paternal roles on child happiness and the impact of health status, age, and marital relationship satisfaction on fathers’ parenting.

Catala: a programming language for the law

Law at large underpins modern society, codifying and governing many aspects of citizens' daily lives. Oftentimes, law is subject to interpretation, debate and challenges throughout various courts and jurisdictions. But in some other areas, law leaves little room for interpretation, and essentially aims to rigorously describe a computation, a decision procedure or, simply said, an algorithm. Unfortunately, prose remains a woefully inadequate tool for the job. The lack of formalism leaves room for ambiguities; the structure of legal statutes, with many paragraphs and sub-sections spread across multiple pages, makes it hard to compute the intended outcome of the algorithm underlying a given text; and, as with any other piece of poorly-specified critical software, the use of informal, natural language leaves corner cases unaddressed. We introduce Catala, a new programming language that we specifically designed to allow a straightforward and systematic translation of statutory law into an executable implementation. Notably, Catala makes it natural and easy to express the general case / exceptions logic that permeates statutory law. Catala aims to bring together lawyers and programmers through a shared medium, which together they can understand, edit and evolve, bridging a gap that too often results in dramatically incorrect implementations of the law. We have implemented a compiler for Catala, and have proven the correctness of its core compilation steps using the F* proof assistant. We evaluate Catala on several legal texts that are algorithms in disguise, notably section 121 of the US federal income tax and the byzantine French family benefits; in doing so, we uncover a bug in the official implementation of the French benefits. We observe as a consequence of the formalization process that using Catala enables rich interactions between lawyers and programmers, leading to a greater understanding of the original legislative intent, while producing a correct-by-construction executable specification reusable by the greater software ecosystem. Doing so, Catala increases trust in legal institutions, and mitigates the risk of societal damage due to incorrect implementations of the law.

Child and Family Benefits to Halt Hungary’s Population Decline, 1965-2020: A Comparison with Polish and Romanian Family Policies

Based on the long-term, demographic forecast, Hungary faces a significant population loss. This paper examines the continuing low level of Hungarian fertility, as well as the marked decline of population due to out-migration beginning in the mid-2000s. First, I will discuss the role governmental family policies play in halting fertility decline before 1989, the demographic post-transitional period of 1960-1980 and the past thirty years since 1989. Second, this paper particularly aims to highlight the impact of the new family policy since 2010, a reverse redistribution of resources from poor to the better-off families which did not result in a marked growth of birth rates. The new family benefits possibly further contribute to the existing polarization of Hungarian society without altering Hungary’s demographic data. Finally, the paper also compares the recent changes of family policies in Poland, Hungary and Romania since 2004.

Cross-border Coordination in the Field of Family Benefits

The exercise of freedom of movement within the European Union Member States also requires interventions in the national social security systems, the organization and exercise of which fall within the exclusive competence of the Member States. In order to fully exercise, in particular, the freedom of movement of persons, in particular persons engaged in gainful employment, it is necessary to lay down in the Union law procedures for resolving conflicts in the provision of family benefits. Collisions in the granting of family benefits generally arise when a person enjoying the free movement of persons moves to another Member State, while another family member (in particular the second parent or the dependent child) remains in the home Member State or moves to another Member State. In such situations, the Union legislation must provide the migrant with the same conditions for family benefits as a national of the Member State in which the migrant is present, so the Union legislation seeks to ensure an equal treatment of a person enjoying this freedom in the event of such a conflict with national social security systems. The subject of the paper is an analysis of the European Union coordination regulation determining the relevant social security system of an European Union Member State for the provision of family benefits so as not to disadvantage the migrant as a family member in acquiring and providing these benefits and, conversely, that this person does not get into unjustified social advantage in the provision of family benefits, i.e. that there is no unjustified overlapping of the provision of a family benefit for the same purpose to the same family member.

Understanding Multiple Interpretations on the Hadith that Husbands Allow Wives to have Outdoor Activities: A Study of Islamic Law Perspectives

Understanding the interpretation of a hadith is multifaceted, in which the Muslim clerics have multiple perspectives on certain hadith, including hadith on husband’s permission to wife to engage in outdoor activities. This is a library research, in which we explore some literature on this issue. The analysis technique used is descriptive-analytical and comparative, while the approach used is historical-sociological. The focuses of this study are threefold: to understand the mazhab(traditional) scholars’ and contemporary scholars’ perspectives, and to review the Islamic law on the Muslim clerics’ understanding of this issue. This paper concludes that mazhab scholars tend to understand the hadith textually, strictly and non-contextual-that is, asking permission to engage in outdoor activities is an obligation of the wife, otherwise it is considered disobedient to the husband. Meanwhile, contemporary scholars understand the hadith contextually and more flexible. They perceive that asking for permission to do outdoor activities is not an obligation; it is rather a recommendation for wives to seek for their husbands’ permission. In fact, in the recent times, wives working outdoor would in fact support husbands in fulfilling household’s needs. This difference can be understood because historically-sociologically the condition of the society has shifted and transformed. In the past, for instance, when women left the house they would cause danger in the middle of the desert such as robbery or wild animals. Meanwhile, nowadays mass communication and mass transportation have enabled families: husbands and wives to connect with each other. Likewise, when women going outdoor to seek knowledge, attending mosques for congregations, and or going for work, contemporary scholars do not see it as prohibited. Women doing activities outdoor has existed even by the time of the prophet and the companions, showing that most wives work outdoor for family benefits.