Partitioning Ground Motion Uncertainty When Conditioned on Station Data

ABSTRACT Rapid estimation of earthquake ground shaking and proper accounting of associated uncertainties in such estimates when conditioned on strong-motion station data or macroseismic intensity observations are crucial for downstream applications such as ground failure and loss estimation. The U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap system is called upon to fulfill this objective in light of increased near-real-time access to strong-motion records from around the world. Although the station data provide a direct constraint on shaking estimates at specific locations, these data also heavily influence the uncertainty quantification at other locations. This investigation demonstrates methods to partition the within- (phi) and between-event (tau) uncertainty estimates under the observational constraints, especially when between-event uncertainties are heteroscedastic. The procedure allows the end users of ShakeMap to create separate between- and within-event realizations of ground-motion fields for downstream loss modeling applications in a manner that preserves the structure of the underlying random spatial processes.

Natural inflation after Planck 2018

We calculate high-precision constraints on Natural Inflation relative to current observational constraints from Planck 2018 + BICEP/Keck(BK15) Polarization + BAO on r and n S, including post-inflationary history of the universe. We find that, for conventional post-inflationary dynamics, Natural Inflation with a cosine potential is disfavored at greater than 95% confidence out by current data. If we assume protracted reheating characterized by w̅>1/3, Natural Inflation can be brought into agreement with current observational constraints. However, bringing unmodified Natural Inflation into the 68% confidence region requires values of T re below the scale of electroweak symmetry breaking. The addition of a SHOES prior on the Hubble Constant H 0 only worsens the fit.

Confining density functional approach for color superconducting quark matter and mesonic correlations

We present a novel relativistic density-functional approach to modeling quark matter with a mechanism to mimic confinement. The quasiparticle treatment of quarks provides their suppression due to large quark selfenergy already at the mean-field level. We demonstrate that our approach is equivalent to a chiral quark model with medium-dependent couplings. The dynamical restoration of the chiral symmetry is ensured by construction of the density functional. Beyond the mean field, quark correlations in the pseudoscalar channel are described within the Gaussian approximation. This explicitly introduces pionic states into the model. Their contribution to the thermodynamic potential is analyzed within the Beth–Uhlenbeck framework. The modification of the meson mass spectrum in the vicinity of thee (de)confinement transition is interpreted as the Mott transition. Supplemented with the vector repulsion and diquark pairing the model is applied to construct a hybrid quark-hadron EoS of cold compact-star matter. We study the connection of such a hybrid EoS with the stellar mass-radius relation and tidal deformability. The model results are compared to various observational constraints including the NICER radius measurement of PSR J0740+6620 and the tidal deformability constraint from GW170817. The model is shown to be consistent with the constraints, still allowing for further improvement by adjusting the vector repulsion and diquark pairing couplings.

Hybrid stars from a constrained equation of state

We determine, within a meta-model, the properties of the nuclear matter equation of state (EoS) that allow for a phase transition to deconfinement matter. It is shown that the properties that define the isoscalar channel are the ones that are affected, in particular, a phase transition implies much larger values of the skewness and kurtosis. The effect of multi-quark interaction channels in the description of the quark phase in hybrid stars is also studied. NS properties, such as the mass and radius of the quark core, show an interplay dependence between the 8-quark vector and the 4-quark isovector-vector interactions. We show that low mass NS, M ~ 1.4M⊙, may already contain a quark core, and satisfy all existing NS observational constraints. We discuss the strangeness content of the quark core and its influence on the speed of sound.

Lyman Continuum Galaxy Candidates in COSMOS

Star-forming galaxies are the sources likely to have reionized the universe. As we cannot observe them directly due to the opacity of the intergalactic medium at z ≳ 5, we study z ∼ 3–5 galaxies as proxies to place observational constraints on cosmic reionization. Using new deep Hubble Space Telescope rest-frame UV F336W and F435W imaging (30 orbits, ∼40 arcmin2, ∼29–30 mag depth at 5σ), we attempt to identify a sample of Lyman continuum galaxies (LCGs). These are individual sources that emit ionizing flux below the Lyman break (<912 Å). This population would allow us to constrain cosmic reionization parameters such as the number density and escape fraction (f esc) of ionizing sources. We compile a comprehensive parent sample that does not rely on the Lyman-break technique for redshifts. We present three new spectroscopic candidates at z ∼ 3.7–4.4 and 32 new photometric candidates. The high-resolution multiband HST imaging and new Keck/Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS) redshifts make these promising spectroscopic LCG candidates. Using both a traditional and a probabilistic approach, we find that the most likely f esc values for the three spectroscopic LCG candidates are >100% and therefore not physical. We are unable to confirm the true nature of these sources with the best available imaging and direct blue Keck/LRIS spectroscopy. More spectra, especially from the new class of 30 m telescopes, will be required to build a statistical sample of LCGs to place firm observational constraints on cosmic reionization.

Primordial Black Holes and a Common Origin of Baryons and Dark Matter

The origin of the baryon asymmetry of the Universe (BAU) and the nature of dark matter are two of the most challenging problems in cosmology. We propose a scenario in which the gravitational collapse of large inhomogeneities at the quark-hadron epoch generates both the baryon asymmetry and most of the dark matter in the form of primordial black holes (PBHs). This is due to the sudden drop in radiation pressure during the transition from a quark-gluon plasma to non-relativistic hadrons. The collapse to a PBH is induced by fluctuations of a light spectator scalar field in rare regions and is accompanied by the violent expulsion of surrounding material, which might be regarded as a sort of “primordial supernova". The acceleration of protons to relativistic speeds provides the ingredients for efficient baryogenesis around the collapsing regions and its subsequent propagation to the rest of the Universe. This scenario naturally explains why the observed BAU is of order the PBH collapse fraction and why the baryons and dark matter have comparable densities. The predicted PBH mass distribution ranges from subsolar to several hundred solar masses. This is compatible with current observational constraints and could explain the rate, mass and low spin of the black hole mergers detected by LIGO-Virgo. Future observations will soon be able to test this scenario.

Probes of the progenitors, engines and physics behind stellar collapse

Super-novas (SNs) are one of the most powerful explosions in the universe and astronomers have invoked the collapse of a stellar core down to a neutron star as a potential power source behind these cosmic blasts. The current paradigm behind core-collapse SN relies on convection in the region just above the newly formed neutron star. This engine was driven and confirmed by observations. We review this observational evidence, and the potential for further observational constraints in this paper.

Interstellar Objects Follow the Collapse of Molecular Clouds

Interstellar objects (ISOs), the parent population of 1i/‘Oumuamua and 2i/Borisov, are abundant in the interstellar medium of the Milky Way. This means that the interstellar medium, including molecular-cloud regions, has three components: gas, dust, and ISOs. From observational constraints of the field density of ISOs drifting in the solar neighborhood, we infer that a typical molecular cloud of 10 pc diameter contains some 1018 ISOs. At typical sizes ranging from hundreds of meters to tens of kilometers, ISOs are entirely decoupled from the gas dynamics in these molecular clouds. Here we address the question of whether ISOs can follow the collapse of molecular clouds. We perform low-resolution simulations of the collapse of molecular clouds containing initially static ISO populations toward the point where stars form. In this proof-of-principle study, we find that the interstellar objects definitely follow the collapse of the gas—and many become bound to the new-forming numerical approximations to future stars (sinks). At minimum, 40% of all sinks have one or more ISO test particles gravitationally bound to them for the initial ISO distributions tested here. This value corresponds to at least 1010 actual ISOs being bound after three initial freefall times. Thus, ISOs are a relevant component of star formation. We find that more massive sinks bind disproportionately large fractions of the initial ISO population, implying competitive capture of ISOs. Sinks can also be solitary, as their ISOs can become unbound again—particularly if sinks are ejected from the system. Emerging planetary systems will thus develop in remarkably varied environments, ranging from solitary to richly populated with bound ISOs.

Relic gravitational waves in cosmological models based on the modified gravity theories

We consider cosmological models based on the generalized scalar-tensor gravity, which correspond to the observational constraints on the parameters of cosmological perturbations for any model’s parameters. The estimates of the energy density of relic gravitational waves for such a cosmological models were made. The possibility of direct detection of such a gravitational waves using modern and prospective methods was discussed as well.