FUTURE PREDICTION OF THE EXPANSION OF BUILT-UP AREAS IN BATAM FREE TRADE ZONE (FTZ) USING LAND CHANGE MODELER

The establishment of Batam City as a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) encourages the city’s growth, as manifested in massive built-up area expansion. The aim of this paper was to analyze the pattern of built-up area expansion in FTZ Batam in 2035 based on the corresponding pattern from 2000 to 2015. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was the instrument used to determine and analyze land cover changes in 2000–2015, from which future changes or built-up area expansion in 2035 were predicted using the validated 2020 land cover map as reference. The validation test based on the Kappa Index of Agreement yielded 96%. The prediction results showed that, compared with 2020, the built-up area in 2035 would have increased by 31.8% and expanded towards the outskirts of FTZ Batam. This sprawl follows the location of the primary activity centers in the FTZ, as allocated in Presidential Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia No. 87 of 2011. A new expansion is expected to continue into existing open space and extensive untouched forest areas. These research findings provide a concept that can be utilized to formulate certain policies and regional planning in the future.

How Green Is Sugarcane Ethanol?

Biofuels offer one approach for reducing carbon emissions. However, the necessary agricultural expansion may endanger tropical forests. I use a dynamic model of land use to disentangle the roles of acreage and yields in the supply of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil. The model is estimated using remote sensing (satellite) information of sugarcane activities. Estimates imply that, at the margin, 92% of new ethanol comes from increases in area and only 8% from increases in yield. Direct deforestation accounts for 19% of area expansion at the margin in the long-run. I further assess carbon emissions and deforestation implications from ethanol policies.

The Future of Low-emission Sustainable Cereal Intensification in SSA

This brief summarizes results of three recent studies that assessed whether Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) can be self-sufficient in cereals (maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, and millet) while minimizing GHG emission by 2050 under different scenarios of intensification on existing cereal area, as opposed to crop land area expansion. The results from three studies suggest that intensification of cereal production with sufficient and efficient use of fertilizers could lead to the lowest GHG emissions among the scenarios studied in future cereal productions in SSA. However, this requires excellent agronomy, including the use of well-adapted cultivars, proper planting densities, good nutrient management and crop protection against weeds, pests, and diseases. It should also be noted that intensification of cereal production may also have additional benefits, including improving the economic profitability for smallholders in SSA.

Glacial Lake Evolution (1962–2018) and Outburst Susceptibility of Gurudongmar Lake Complex in the Tista Basin, Sikkim Himalaya (India)

The Sikkim Himalayan glaciers and glacial lakes are affected by climate change like other parts of the Himalayas. As a result of this climate variability in the Sikkim Himalaya, a detailed study of the Gurudongmar lake complex (GLC) evolution and outburst susceptibility assessment is required. Glacial lake volume estimation and lake outburst susceptibility assessment were carried out to reveal different characteristics for all four lakes (GL-1, GL-2, GL-3, and GL-4) from the lake complex. Each of these lakes has a moderate to very high potential to outburst. As the dam of GL-1 provides no retention capacity, there is a very high potential of a combined effect with the sudden failure of the moraine-dams of GL-2 or GL-3 located upstream. Temporal analysis of GLC using optical remote sensing data and in-field investigations revealed a rapidly increasing total lake area by ~74 ± 3%, with an expansion rate of +0.03 ± 0.002 km2 a−1 between 1962 and 2018 due to climate change and ongoing glacier retreat. The overall lake area expansion rates are dependent on climate-driven factors, and constantly increasing average air temperature is responsible for the enlargement of the lake areas. Simultaneously, changes in GLC expansion velocity are driven by changes in the total amount of precipitation. The deficit in precipitation probably triggered the initial higher rate from 1962 to 1988 during the winter and spring seasons. The post-1990s positive anomaly in precipitation might have reduced the rate of the glacial lake area expansion considerably.

The Influence of Virtual Forest Walk on Physiological and Psychological Responses

The authors of this paper sought to investigate the impact of virtual forest therapy based on realistic versus dreamlike environments on reducing stress levels. Today, people are facing an increase in stress levels in everyday life, which may be due to personal life, work environment, or urban area expansion. Previous studies have reported that urban environments demand more attention and mental workload than natural environments. However, evidence for the effects of natural environments as virtual forest therapy on stress levels has not yet been fully explored. In this study, a total of 20 healthy participants completed a letter-detection test to increase their stress level and were then randomly assigned to two different virtual environments representing realistic and dreamlike graphics. The participants’ stress levels were assessed using two physiological methods that measured heart rate and skin conductance levels and one psychological method through the Profile of Mood States (POMS) questionnaire. These indicators were analyzed using a sample t-test and a one-way analysis of variance. The results showed that virtual forest environments could have positive stress-relieving effects. However, realistic graphics were more efficient in reducing stress. These findings contribute to growing forest therapy concepts and provide new directions for future forest therapy research.

Hasil Tanaman Wortel (Daucus carota L.) di Dataran Rendah pada Berbagai Ketebalan Mulsa Jerami Padi

Carrot is one of the vegetables that people like because it has many health benefits related to the content of B vitamins, vitamin C, and other substances, thereby increasing the need or demand, but not in line with the increase in the production of this plant. One of the efforts to increase production is through area expansion, and the lowlands are the target of its development. This study aims to determine the growth and yield of carrots grown in the lowlands by applying rice straw mulch. This research was conducted in a rice field area, in Bagek Polak Village, West Lombok Regency, West Nusa Tenggara with an altitude of 26 m above sea level in July-October 2020. The field experiment with the experimental method was designed according to a Randomized Block Design with one factor, namely the thickness of rice straw mulch. (m0 = no straw mulch; m1 = 1 layer mulch thickness; m2 = 2 layers mulch thickness; m3 = 3 layers mulch thickness; m4 = 4 layers mulch thickness) was repeated four times so that there were 20 experimental units. The results showed that rice straw mulch had a significant effect on the growth and yield of carrots in the lowlands. The use of 4 layers of rice straw mulch was could increase the growth and yield of carrots by 2647.75 gr/m2 or the equivalent of 21,182 tons/ha. layer; expansion; production; vegetables; tubers

Evaluating the Territorial Impact of Built-Up Area Expansion in the Surroundings of Bucharest (Romania) through a Multilevel Approach Based on Landsat Satellite Imagery

Assessing the relentless expansion of built-up areas is one of the most important tasks for achieving sustainable planning and supporting decision-making on the regional and local level. In this context, techniques based on remote sensing can play a crucial role in monitoring the fast rhythm of urban growth, allowing the regular appraisal of territorial dynamics. The main aim of the study is to evaluate, in a multi-scalar perspective, the built-up area expansion and the spatio–temporal changes in Ilfov County, which overlaps the surroundings of Bucharest, capital of Romania. Our research focuses on processing multi-date Landsat satellite imagery from three selected time references (2000, 2008, 2018) through the supervised classification process. Further on, the types of built-up area dynamics are explored using LDTtool, a landscape metrics instrument. The results reveal massive territorial restructuring in the 18 years, as the new built-up developments occupy a larger area than the settlements’ surface in 2000. The rhythm of the transformations also changed over time, denoting a significant acceleration after 2008, when 75% of the new development occurred. At the regional level, the spatial pattern has become more and more complex, in a patchwork of spatial arrangements characterized by the proliferation of low density areas interspersed with clusters of high density developments and undeveloped land. At the local level, a comparative assessment of the administrative territorial units’ pathway was conducted based on the annual growth of built-up areas, highlighting the most attractive places and the main territorial directions of development. In terms of the specific dynamics of built-up areas, the main change patterns are “F—NP increment by gain”, followed by “G—Aggregation by gain”, both comprising around 80% of the total number of cells. The first type was prevalent in the first period (2000–2008), while the second is identified only after 2008, when it became the most represented, followed in the hierarchy by the previously dominant category. The spatial pattern differentiations were further explored in three complementary case studies investigated in correlation with socioeconomic data, revealing a heterogeneous landscape.

Impacts of China’s Minimum Grain Procurement Price Program on Agrochemical Use: A Household-Level Analysis

China’s minimum grain procurement price program aims to boost grain production and ensure food self-sufficiency. It may also affect the already very high levels of chemical fertilizer and pesticides consumption, but little is known about these potential side-effects. In this paper, we apply panel data regression techniques to a large rural household-level data set for the period 1997–2010 to examine whether and how the minimum grain procurement price program affected households’ agrochemical use. We find that the minimum grain procurement price program negatively affected both chemical fertilizer and pesticides use, with pesticides use being more responsive than the use of fertilizer. The higher wheat and rice prices that resulted from the program stimulated the use of agrochemicals, but they also stimulated area expansion which contributed to lower agrochemical use per unit of land. These counteracting indirect effects were overshadowed by the large negative direct effect of the minimum procurement price of rice on the use of fertilizer and pesticides.

Estimation of Growth Rates and Decomposition Analysis of Major Fruit Crops in Punjab, India

Horticulture has been increasingly significant in supplying key elements to Punjabis’ diets. From 2010-11 to 2018-2019, the study examines the trends and variations in area, production, and yield of fruit crops in Punjab. The state’s trends in fruit area, production, and yield tend to be good for key fruits (citrus, mango, guava, and pear) in practically all areas. The decline in production of guava during the year 2016-17 and in production of pear during the year 2015-16 & 2016-17 was due to downward growth in area in during these years. Results of Cuddy-Della Valle Index indicates that fluctuations in production of major fruits i.e. constantly increasing over time (from 2010-2019); however, instability in their area mounted and reached to the highest levels for guava, mango and pear again in 2017-18 and 2018-19. While, disparity in pear production were the highest in 2015-16 followed by 2016-17. On the basis of growth rate data these can be ascribed to expansion in area to a great extent and remarkably in productivity improvement. During the study period, fruit production differs due to area in guava and pear, though productivity is not changed greatly. The results of decomposition analysis specify comparably intense stimulus of area expansion in production of guava and pear. Due to the scarcity of agricultural land, there are few opportunities to expand the area of fruit crops. As a result, improvements in fruit crop output levels are essential to maintain healthy growth in fruit output