Cointegration and Causality Analysis of Portuguese Tourism and Air Quality

2022 ◽  
pp. 52-70
Author(s):  
Mara Madaleno ◽  
Margarita Robaina ◽  
Celeste Eusébio ◽  
Maria João Carneiro ◽  
Vitor Rodrigues ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter aims to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between tourism and air quality, specifically in the Portuguese tourism industry, with a focus on tourist nationality. It examines whether this relationship differs according to tourist origin. This study uses an air pollutant, PM10, with a strong impact on human health that has been highly neglected in the literature. Despite the great use of CO2 in assessing the causal relationship between tourism and the environment, this is not the best indicator of air quality (AQ). This chapter presents results by applying vector autoregressive models (VAR) with monthly data for the period of 2007-2017, considering the nationality of tourists that visit Portugal. Results suggest that PM10 levels and tourism are negatively correlated (in the Pearson sense) with a link between them in the long run. This relationship is confirmed by the four methodologies tested. The negative relation in Pearson and cointegration results suggests that tourism can be affected by AQ in Portugal and may lead to better AQ.

Fraud and Bank Performance in Nigeria – Var Granger Causality Analysis

e-Finanse ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Taiwo A. Muritala ◽  
Muftau A. Ijaiya ◽  
Olatanwa H. Afolabi ◽  
Abdulrasheed B. Yinus
Keyword(s):  
Control Systems ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Granger Causality Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Multivariate Cointegration

AbstractThis paper examines the causality between fraud and bank performance in Nigeria over the period 2000-2016 for quarterly financial data using Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Granger Causality analysis. The results show a long-run relationship between the variables. Bank performance was found to be linked to Granger fraud variables and vice versa at 10% significant level. This study reveals that there was a direct causal relationship between bank performance and fraud because increase in fraudulent activities in the banking sector leads to reduction in bank performance. Hence, this study recommends that internal control systems of banks should be strengthened so as to detect and prevent fraud. In this way, bank assets would be protected.

scholarly journals Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Nexus in Beijing, China

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Songling ◽  
Muhammad Ishtiaq ◽  
Bui Thi Thanh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Beijing China

In the developing economy, tourism is the most visible and steadiest growing facade. Tourism is considered one of the rapidly increasing elements for economic development from the last two decades. Therefore, the proposed study used vector autoregression (VAR) model, error correction model (ECM), and the Granger causality to check the relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth based on the data of the Beijing municipal bureau of statistics from 1994 to 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a replacement variable for the economic growth index, while internal tourism revenue is used as a tourism industry indicator. The study supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis proposed in the existing literature in a different survey of tourism and economic development. The results show that there is a strong relationship in the tourism industry and economic growth in the context of Beijing, and at the same time, tourism creates a more significant increase in long run local real economic accomplishments. The results of the VAR model confirm that in the long run, Beijing’s economic growth is affected by domestic tourism, while the ECM model shows unidirectional results in the short term. Similarly, there is a one-way causal relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth in Beijing, China. The empirical results are in strong support of the concept that tourism causes growth.

Financial Marketing-Based Role of Exchange Rate to Increase Foreign Trade in Turkey

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Özgür Kiyak ◽  
Bilge Afşar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Decrease Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Relationship

This chapter tries to determine whether there is a causal relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. The study includes monthly data between February 2003 and December 2018 including dollar foreign exchange selling rate and inflation related real exchange rate for exchange rate, and export amount, import amount, export increase/decrease rate, and import increase. Increase/decrease rate is used for foreign trade among other variables, for a total of 6 variables. According to the obtained results of Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, there is a cointegration between variables in the long run. However, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, it was understood that there is no causality relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade.

scholarly journals Causality Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Consumer Price of Veal: The Case of Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6257
Author(s):  
Burak Mat ◽  
Mehmet Saltuk Arikan ◽  
Mustafa Bahadir Çevrimli ◽  
Ahmet Cumhur Akin ◽  
Mustafa Agah Tekindal
Keyword(s):  
Production Costs ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Input Prices

It is interesting to identify the reasons and the direction of the correlation between the input/output prices and the macro/micro parameters in animal production processes. In the present study, the time series of the monthly data between the years 2014 and 2019 were analyzed to examine the factors that affected the consumer price of carcass meat in Turkey. An attempt was made to identify the relationship between the consumer price of carcass meat and the prices of cattle fattening feed, the exchange rate of the dollar, producer price index (PPI), and the agricultural PPI, which were anticipated to affect the consumer price of carcass meat as determined by the Granger causality analysis. According to econometric analysis results, when there is a change in carcass producer price, cattle fattening feed and PPI in the short term, the consumer price of carcass meat is affected by this. The producer price of carcass and PPI variables are determined to be the cause of each other’s Granger. At the same time, the PPI variable and the consumer price of carcass meat and dollar rate variables were found to be the cause of each other’s Granger. If Turkey is to prevent the excessive fluctuations in the consumer- and producer-prices of carcass meat caused by macro variables, an effective price control mechanism should be put into practice. It seems that this change would be possible only by developing and implementing policies to lower the input prices and production costs.

Long-run relationship between investment and maintenance in local governments

Facilities ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 703-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnt O. Hopland
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
New Infrastructure

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to analyze the relationship between maintenance of existent and investment in new infrastructure in Norwegian local governments. Design/methodology/approach A reduced form vector autoregressive system is estimated using a 29-year-long panel data set for the Norwegian local governments. Findings The data reveal that increased investment in new infrastructure sparks little, if any, increase in maintenance. The results also indicate that increased maintenance expenditures spark new investments. Because more investments mean more infrastructure and adequate maintenance should give that investments are not caused by maintenance, the results suggest that the local governments have not optimized their maintenance scheduling in this period. Originality/value Even though maintenance and investment are large expenditures that both serve as inputs to the stock of infrastructure, little is known about the relationship between the two. The findings in this paper suggests that Norwegian local governments have not planned their maintenance and investments well in the past, and this can be part of the explanation as to why local public infrastructure in Norway is presently in poor condition.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Air Transport and Rural Tourism in Thailand

Tourism ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-405
Author(s):  
Colin C.H. Law
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Rural Tourism ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Tourism Revenue

This study used panel to identify the relationship between air transport and rural tourism in Thailand. The data covered eleven airports in Thailand from 2009 to 2018 (10 years). The airports are located in the eleven poorest provinces in the country, based on the gross provincial product per capita. The study included the total number of air traveler arrivals as the dependent variable and the total number of flight movements, provincial tourism revenue and the average monthly income per household as the independent variables, and used an autoregressive distributed lag model to identify the relationship between air transport and rural areas in Thailand. The results of the study indicate that increasing demand for air transport to rural provinces is significantly and positively generating an increasing number of flights and a decline in tourism revenue and household income in the eleven provinces in the long run. The development of the air transport industry alone is not enough to alleviate the income inequality; it is suggested that provincial governments need to develop the tourism industry and infrastructure further to bring greater benefits to society and to reduce income inequality in the country.

scholarly journals Exports as a Determinant of Inflation in Kenya: Disaggregated Econommetric Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Evans Ovamba Kiganda ◽  
Scholastica Adhiambo ◽  
Nelson Obange
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Impulse Response Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study was to examine exports as a determinant of inflation in Kenya: A disaggregated econometric analysis with specific objectives of establishing the relationship between domestic exports and inflation in Kenya and determining the relationship between re - exports and inflation in Kenya. This was occasioned by inconclusive and incomprehensive analysis on the relationship between exports and inflation given mixed results and failure by scholars to disaggregate total exports into domestic exports and re-exports. Correlation research design was employed using monthly time series obtained from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data spanning 132 months from January 2005 to December 2015.Vector Autoregressive (VAR) techniques of cointegration, Granger causality and impulse response analysis were employed. Results indicated a significant positive and negative long run relationship between domestic exports and re- exports with inflation in Kenya respectively that were supported by the impulse response analysis. A unidirectional causality running from domestic exports to inflation and re-exports to inflation was also established. The study concluded that domestic exports and re-exports determine inflation in Kenya with domestic exports having greater influence and therefore recommended that the government of Kenya needs to advocate for a trade policy that aims at reducing exports of domestically produced products and increase re-exports. This will ensure that only surplus is exported to reduce shortage of domestically produced commodities hence a reduction in price for the products.

scholarly journals Terrorism and Tourism

Tourism ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-42
Author(s):  
Mustafa Göktuğ Kaya ◽  
Stephen Taiwo Onifade ◽  
Ayhan Akpınar
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Continuous Support

The booming tourism sector in Turkey has resulted in major economic gains in terms of direct revenues to both government and private sectors alike. Turkey had more than 45 million visits in 2018, and top inbound arrivals were from Russia and European Union (EU) members, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Bulgaria, among others (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 2020). However, terrorism is becoming a challenge to tourism development. This study explores terrorism–tourism dynamics in Turkey. The short- and long-run impacts of terror attacks on tourism revenues were examined within the framework of an autoregressive lag (ARDL) model using monthly data for the period between 2012 and 2018. The empirical findings did not support terrorism's effects on tourism revenues. However, in the long run, terror-related casualties and fatalities on tourism revenues had different effects. The findings affirm that the casualty rate has a stronger impact on terrorism–tourism dynamics in Turkey because a 1% increase in reported injuries from terror attacks hampers revenues by approximately 0.1%. Hence, adequate and continuous support for general security establishments is imperative while strengthening commitments to the international cooperation on the war against terrorism to proactively contain the undesirable impacts of terrorism in the Turkish tourism industry,

scholarly journals An analysis of key sectors of economic growth in Greece: A VAR testing approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-12
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos ◽  
Alexandros Garefalakis ◽  
Dimitrios Charamis ◽  
Georgios Gerakis ◽  
Anastasios Konstantinidis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Term Relation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
The One ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of the study is to examine the relationship that exists between tourism, money supply and construction, on the one hand, and the economic growth in Greece, using a multivariate autoregressive model VAR. The long-term relation based on the Cointegration test results has shown the existence of a long run relation despite the prolonged economic recession. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1965 to 2015. The empirical results show that the economy of Greece can recover and return to long run equilibrium with a speed of adjustment reaching 3,60 % per year. The global economic crisis has undoubtedly affected the Greek economy. Long before the onset of the economic crisis, Greece applied a model of economic growth that relied on the growth of the manufacturing sector. In particular, the development of the construction sector was the engine of the Greek economy. However, through our analysis, it turns out that the engine for the development of the Greek economy is tourism rather than construction. The relationship between construction and the supply of money in Greece’s GDP is positive. However, the dynamics of the tourism industry stand out in comparison to the other areas examined.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document