Community vibrancy and its relationship with safety in Philadelphia

To what extent can the strength of a local urban community impact neighborhood safety? We construct measures of community vibrancy based on a unique dataset of block party permit approvals from the City of Philadelphia. Our first measure captures the overall volume of block party events in a neighborhood whereas our second measure captures differences in the type (regular versus spontaneous) of block party activities. We use both regression modeling and propensity score matching to control for the economic, demographic and land use characteristics of the surrounding neighborhood when examining the relationship between crime and our two measures of community vibrancy. We conduct our analysis on aggregate levels of crime and community vibrancy from 2006 to 2015 as well as the trends in community vibrancy and crime over this time period. We find that neighborhoods with a higher number of block parties have a significantly higher crime rate, while those holding a greater proportion of spontaneous block party events have a significantly lower crime rate. We also find that neighborhoods which have an increase in the proportion of spontaneous block parties over time are significantly more likely to have a decreasing trend in total crime incidence over that same time period.

Anti-Muslim Voting and Media Coverage of Immigrant Crimes

We study how news coverage of immigrant criminality impacts voting in one of the most controversial referendums in recent years – the 2009 Swiss minaret ban. We combine a comprehensive crime detection dataset with detailed information on newspaper coverage. We first document a large upward distortion in media reporting of immigrant crime during the prereferendum period. Exploiting quasi-random variations in crime incidence, we find a positive first-order effect of news coverage on support for the ban. Quantification shows that, in absence of the media bias, pro-ban vote would have decreased from 57.6% to 53.5% at the national level.

Crimes Against Animal Production: Exploring the use of Media Archives

Swedish media have revealed an increase in crimes against animal production (CAAP) in the last decade. We investigate the nature of such crimes (especially against mink, pig, and rabbit farms), with a focus on those crimes whose suspects are animal rights groups by utilizing data from media archives from 2009 to 2019. Newspaper articles show that while vandalism and trespassing are often committed against mink farms, property crimes occur more often against pig and rabbit farms. Because there are indications that crime suspects are not a homogeneous group and express different motivations to commit CAAP, a multipronged approach is needed to prevent CAAP. The use of newspaper articles from media archives has proven to be successful for obtaining a general perspective of CAAP, but it is limited for capturing crime incidence or for investigating CAAP spatiotemporal nature when using geographical information systems. The automated usage of digital media archives should be further explored and critically assessed in future research in criminology.

Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City

Background This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers. Method The first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors. Results Results indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that some of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the findings suggested that the changes in mobility explain part of the declines observed, with important variations per crime type. Conclusion The findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explicitly test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities.

Designing Time Series Crime Prediction Model using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network

Crime influences people in many ways. Prior studies have shown the relationship between time and crime incidence behavior. This research attempts to determine and examine the relationship between time, crime incidences types and locations by using one of the neural network models for time series data that is, Long Short-Term Memory network. The collected data is pre-processed, analyzed and tested using Long Short-Term Memory recurrent neural network model. R-square score is also used to test the accuracy. The study results show that applying Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM RNN) enables to come up with more accurate prediction about crime incidence occurrence with respect to time. Predicting crimes accurately helps to improve crime prevention and decision and advance the justice system.

Crime and COVID-19: Effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City

**Background.**This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities.**Method.**The first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors. **Results.**Results indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that most of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the declines predicted by the changes in mobility were not always consistent nor as large as those observed. **Conclusion.**The findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explictily test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities.

Guía Tecnológica de Protocolo de Primer Respondiente en México

Technologies, as an aid to social activities, have had an impact on how we conduct ourselves. The latest generation of technological advances determined from the sizable developments in the field of telecommunications, as well as the general access most people have to them, have resulted in an accelerated technological revolution. Over the last two decades, public security in Mexico has seen important changes, starting in the legislation around it, and therefore, changing the offices that depend on it, and reaching the activities performed by those who operate the system, mainly the the policemen leading the line from the front. In this situation, a novelty to be found in those reforms made to the penal system is a digital tool known as first respondent protocol, which assigns responsibilities and marks the guidelines of how to act or intervene in the event of the so-called criminal notice, which goes the same way for crime incidence. The usage of technological tools available today led to the creation of the First Respondent app, designed and developed by a police officer, which provides benefits to users and potential stakeholders, and since it is free, one can predict it to be successful.

Seguridad pública, violencia urbana y prevención social del delito en Acapulco, Guerrero, México

Acapulco constituye un caso paradigmático de la violencia delincuencial en México; en los últimos años se ha consolidado como una de las ciudades más violentas del mundo y uno de los municipios con mayor número de delitos de alto impacto en el país. Este trabajo plantea un diagnóstico sobre incidencia delictiva y percepción de inseguridad, a partir de una discusión conceptual sobre las instituciones de seguridad y justicia, y su papel en la política criminal, así como de una revisión de la política de prevención implementada en el marco del Programa Nacional de Prevención del Delito (pronapred), mediante acciones focalizadas en cinco polígonos de atención prioritaria en Acapulco. Como estrategia metodológica, recurre al análisis de datos de fuentes primarias, que se obtienen mediante encuesta aplicada en 2016 y 2019, en dichos polígonos, con muestreos probabilísticos, y también de fuentes secundarias en materia de seguridad pública, procuración e impartición de justicia y sistema penitenciario; desarrolla, además, una evaluación del diseño del pronapred, a través de la revisión de los anexos únicos de coordinación y adhesión para el otorgamiento de apoyos de los años 2013 al 2018. Los resultados del estudio apuntan a que los recursos no se asignaron mediante criterios racionales ni objetivos, sino que financiaron acciones sin una relación clara con la prevención de la violencia y la delincuencia; acciones con impactos difíciles de medir, acciones que servían de insumo para otras acciones que en realidad no eran tomadas en cuenta y acciones que corresponden a instancias ajenas a la prevención del delito.Palabras clave: Política criminal, Prevención social, Incidencia delictiva, Percepción de inseguridad, Sistema de justicia penal Public security, urban violence and social prevention of crime in Acapulco, Guerrero, MexicoSummaryAcapulco is a paradigmatic case of criminal violence in Mexico. In recent years it has become one of the most violent cities in the world and one of the municipalities with the highest number of high-impact crimes in the country. This work proposes a diagnosis of crime incidence and perception of insecurity, based on a conceptual discussion of security and justice institutions and their role in criminal policy, as well as a review of the prevention policy implemented in the framework of the National Program for Crime Prevention (pronapred), through targeted actions in five priority areas in Acapulco. As a methodological strategy, it resorts to the analysis of data from primary sources, obtained through a survey applied in 2016 and 2019 in these polygons with probabilistic sampling, and also from secondary sources on public safety, procurement and administration of justice and prison system. It also develops an evaluation of the design of pronapred, through the review of the single annexes of coordination and adhesion for the granting of support from 2013 to 2018. The results of the study point to the fact that resources were not allocated through rational and objective criteria, but rather financed actions without a clear relationship with the prevention of violence and crime; actions with impacts that were difficult to measure, actions that served as input for other actions that were not actually taken into account, and actions that correspond to agencies outside of crime prevention.Keywords: Criminal policy, Social prevention, Incidence of crime, Perception of insecurity, Criminal justice systemSécurité Publique, violence urbaine et prévention sociale du délit à Acapulco, Guerrero, MexiqueRésuméAcapulco constitue un cas paradigmatique de la violence délictueuse au Mexique ; au cours des dernières années cette ville s’est constituée comme une des plus violentes du monde et une municipalité qui compte avec un grand nombre de délits de grand impact dans le pays. Ce travail propose un diagnostic sur l’incidence délictueuse et perception d’insécurité, à partir d’une discussion conceptuelle sur les institutions de sécurité et justice, et leur rôle dans la politique criminelle, il s’agit aussi d’une révision de la politique de prévention implémentée dans le cadre du Programme National de Prévention du Délit (pronapred, par se sigles en espagnol) à travers des actions focalisées dans cinq polygones d’attention prioritaire à Acapulco. Comme stratégie méthodologique, ce travail fait appel à l’analyse de données de sources primaires, qui sont obtenues à travers des enquêtes appliquées en 2016 et 2019 dans ces polygones avec des échantillonnages probabilistes et aussi de sources secondaires en matière de sécurité publique, procuration et impartition de justice et système pénitentiaire ; il développe en plus, une évaluation du dessin du pronapred, à travers la révision des annexes uniques de coordination et d’adhésion pour la remise d’appuis dans les années 2013 au 2018. Les résultats de l’étude visent envers la non attribution des ressources au moyen des critères rationnels et objectifs, sinon qu’elles ont financé des actions sans aucun clair rapport avec la prévention de la violence et de la délinquance ; des actions avec des impacts difficiles à mesurer, des actions qui servaient comme intrant pour d’autres actions qui en réalité n’étaient pas prises en compte et des actions qui correspondaient à des instances étrangères à la prévention du délit.Mots clés : Politique criminelle, Prévention sociale, Incidence délictueuse, Perception d’insécurité, Système de justice pénale