Progressive Area Elimination of Bovine Brucellosis, 2013–2018, in Gauteng Province, South Africa: Evaluation Using Laboratory Test Reports

Bovine brucellosis is a zoonotic disease of global public health and economic importance. South Africa has had a national bovine brucellosis eradication scheme since 1979; however, no published report on elimination progress from any province exists. We analysed laboratory test results of all cattle herds participating in the Gauteng Provincial Veterinary Services’ eradication scheme between 2013 and 2018. Herd reactor status and within-herd seroprevalence, modelled using mixed-effects logistic and negative binomial regression models, respectively, showed no significant change over the period. However, provincial State Vet Areas, Randfontein (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2–2.1; p < 0.001) and Germiston (OR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.5–2.5, p = 0.008) had higher odds of reactor herds than the Pretoria Area and within-herd prevalence count ratios for these areas were 1.5-fold greater than the Pretoria State Vet Area (p < 0.001). Reactor herds were associated with increased herd size (p < 0.001) and larger herd sizes were associated with lower within-herd prevalence (p < 0.001). Despite no evidence of significant progress toward bovine brucellosis elimination in Gauteng province, variability in bovine brucellosis prevalence between State Vet Areas exists. A public health and farmer-supported strategy of ongoing district-based surveillance and cattle vaccination targeting small- to medium-sized herds combined with compulsory test and slaughter of reactors in larger herds is recommended for the province.

Longitudinal Projection of Herd Prevalence of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Infection in the Norwegian Pig Population by Discrete-Time Markov Chain Modelling

In order to quantify projections of disease burden and to prioritise disease control strategies in the animal population, good mathematical modelling of infectious disease dynamics is required. This article investigates the suitability of discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) as one such model for forecasting disease burden in the Norwegian pig population after the incursion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus (H1N1pdm09) in Norwegian pigs in 2009. By the year-end, Norway’s active surveillance further detected 20 positive herds from 54 random pig herds, giving an estimated initial population prevalence of 37% (95% CI 25–52). Since then, Norway’s yearly surveillance of pig herd prevalence has given this study 11 years of data from 2009 to 2020 to work with. Longitudinally, the pig herd prevalence for H1N1pdm09 rose sharply to >40% in three years and then fluctuated narrowly between 48% and 49% for 6 years before declining. This initial longitudinal pattern in herd prevalence from 2009 to 2016 inspired this study to test the steady-state discrete-time Markov chain model in forecasting disease prevalence. With the pig herd as the unit of analysis, the parameters for DTMC came from the initial two years of surveillance data after the outbreak, namely vector prevalence, first herd incidence and recovery rates. The latter two probabilities formed the fixed probability transition matrix for use in a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) that is quite similar to another compartmental model, the susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) model. These DTMC of predicted prevalence (DTMCP) showed good congruence (Pearson correlation = 0.88) with the subsequently observed herd prevalence for seven years from 2010 to 2016. While the DTMCP converged to the stationary (endemic) state of 48% in 2012, after three time steps, the observed prevalence declined instead from 48% after 2016 to 25% in 2018 before rising to 29% in 2020. A sudden plunge in H1N1pdm09 prevalence amongst Norwegians during the 2016/2017 human flu season may have had a knock-on effect in reducing the force of infection in pig herds in Norway. This paper endeavours to present the discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) as a feasible but limited tool in forecasting the sequence of a predicted infectious disease’s prevalence after it’s incursion as an exotic disease.

Association between gastric content fluidity and pars oesophageal ulcers in nursery pigs: a cross-sectional study of high-risk Danish herds using commercial feed

Background The objective of this cross-sectional study was to assess the within-herd prevalence of pars oesophageal ulcers (POU) in high-risk Danish herds using commercial diets. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the association between gastric content fluidity and POU using a generalised additive model (GAM). The study included 200 clinically healthy nursery pigs randomly selected from ten farms (20 pigs from each farm). The 10 farms were selected based on a suspected high prevalence of gastric ulcers. Post-mortem gastric ulcer assessment was based on macroscopic lesions, and gastric content fluidity was assessed based on the solid particle sedimentation percentage (solid phase). Results We observed an overall prevalence of 35.5% for POU in nursery pigs. Within-herd prevalence varied considerably among farms, with values ranging from 0% in Farm 1 to 84% in Farm 4. Our model showed strong associations between POU and gastric content fluidity (P < 0.001), as well as between POU and farm of origin (P < 0.001). In addition, we observed that the risk of POU decreased non-linearly as the gastric content solid phase percentage increased, i.e. as the gastric content became more solid. Conclusion We have demonstrated that pars oesophageal ulcers are present in Danish herds with nursery pigs fed commercial diets. Furthermore, we have established that gastric content fluidity is strongly associated with POU in nursery pigs. Even so, we cannot conclude that gastric content fluidity is solely responsible for POU. Future research should look into the association between pars oesophageal ulcers and both farm management activities and individual pig factors.

Brucella infection in migratory cattle herds in Jigawa State Nigeria: A cross sectional study

A cross sectional study on Brucella infection was carried out in Jigawa State in order to evaluate seroprevalence and transmission exposure factors among migratory cattle herds. A total of 1,810 cattle of different ages and sexes were systematically selected from 147 herds across four agricultural zones in the State and screened using Serum Agglutination Test (SAT) while closed ended questionnaire was used to evaluate exposure factors. From the results out of the 1,810 (serum samples) (3.37%) tested positive. Females showed higher seropositivity (3.6%) to the infection, compared to males (2.7%). Cattle of age 4-5 years had the highest prevalence (7%), compared to 3-4 years (4.5%), 2-3years (2%), 1-2years (0.8%), with no positive reactor among cattle of less than one year (0%). Seropositive animals according to the locations was found to be highest in Zone III (5.2%), followed by Zone IV (3.9%) and Zone I (2.4%), and least in Zone II (1.5%). A higher herd prevalence was recorded in Zone III (29%), followed by Zone IV (21%) and Zone I (17%), with lowest in Zone II (12%). The overall herd prevalence was 20.4%. There was association between herds that do not practice quarantine, raise multiple species, share communal pastures and water points with Brucella infection (P< 0.05) and they are more likely to acquire the infection as indicated by odds ratio. In conclusion the results have indicated that Brucella infection exists in the studied herds and some exposure factors were identified. It is hereby recommended that herd owners should practice quarantine of newly purchased animals, avoid herding multiple species of animals together, carryout routine testing and minimize contacts at grazing and water points. Keywords: Brucella, Cattle herds, Exposure factors, Jigawa State, SAT, Seroprevalence, Serum

Prevalence, distribution and risk factors for brucellosis infection in goat farms in Ningxiang, China

Background In south China, goats are the major source of Brucellosis for human infection. However, there are few studies on the prevalence of and risk factors for goat brucellosis in south China. In this study, we conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the herd prevalence, spatial distribution and relevant risk factors for goat brucellosis in Ningxiang county, south China. Commercial goat farms (n = 457) were randomly selected, and their disease status was ascertained by testing serum samples of chosen individuals using the Rose Bengal Test (screening test) and the Serum Agglutination Test (confirmatory test) in series. A farm with at least two positive individuals was defined as a case farm. Standardized questionnaires were used to collect information on management and hygiene practices in farms. A logistic model with a binomial outcome was built to identify risk factors for being seropositive. Results The true herd prevalence in commercial goat farms was 4.5% (95%CI: 0.2%-12.2%) and the townships in the centre of the county had higher herd prevalence. The risk factors associated with seropositive on local goat farms include “Introduction in the past 12 months” (OR= 61, 95%CI: 16-333), “Improperly disposal of the sick or dead goats” (OR= 33, 95%CI: 5-341) and “Poor hygiene in lambing pen” (OR= 25, 95%CI: 5-192). Conclusions These findings will aid in the development of control strategies of Brucellosis in south China and risk factors identified in this study should be taken into consideration when designing a control strategy.