The COVID-19 pandemic has led many election administrators, as well as voters, to reconsider the manner in which votes will be cast during the 2020 general election. With many voters wary of waiting in line in person beside strangers on Election Day, registrars around the country are preparing for a far higher share of ballots to be cast by mail than ever before. The best available academic research suggests that holding elections entirely by mail slightly increases turnout, but does not advantage either major political party. Recent research on expanded access to voting by mail during the pandemic has found that, while many voters (and especially Democrats) who would otherwise vote in person take advantage of the opportunity to vote by mail, there is no evidence that the practice has changed any final election results.However, it is clear that more Democrats than Republicans will be voting by mail in 2020, which means that there may well be substantial shifts in the margin between Trump and Biden during an extended period of time after Election Day during which votes are still being counted in some states. How large these shifts are will depend on how different the rates of voting by mail are between Trump and Biden supporters, when people mail in their ballots, and the state’s rules for receiving and counting votes cast by mail. The 2018 midterm elections are illustrative of the potential shift after the election. Democrats’ net seat gain in the House of Representatives increased from 26 to 41 after Election Day because of (1) slow counting of votes that had arrived by mail, and (2) late arriving ballots.Here we evaluate three questions:• How many people report that they will vote by mail in each state?• What will be the difference in candidate choice between those who vote on the day of the election versus those who vote by mail?• What is the potential shift in the margin between Trump and Biden from the day of voting to a count that incorporates votes received by mail?